As some may know, I drew the Game One writeup on Action Network with Drew Rasmussen originally expected to start before the Rays caught some Fancy Play Syndrome and started Nick Martinez instead.
Considering they pitched their entire B squad and lost by one run, one wonders if they may have outsmarted themselves.
Never the less, it afforded me the opportunity to grab +135 on Novig not long after Game One started for a game that opened with the Rays around even money at traditional sportsbooks after the game ended.
I can't emphasize prediction markets enough if you know where you're going before a postseason game ends because traditional books don't post lines until the previous game ends, while prediction markets (Poly/Novid/Kalshi) are offering them far earlier.
Use my code when signing up on Novig: A5BD9F
https://share.novig.us/verification?referralCode=a5bd9f
Anyway, I spent a good chunk of time researching and writing up Drew Rasmussen for my Game One writeup only to have nowhere to put it, so here is what my Game One Rasmussen portion would have looked like if he had pitched:
The major award ceremonies only invite three finalists, but I would be surprised if Drew Rasmussen doesn’t finish top five in AL Cy Young voting and he has carried his regular season dominance (21.2 K-BB% ranking 6th in the AL among qualified starters and 33.8 HardHit% ranking 3rd) into the postseason.
Rasmussen’s 4.8 BB% was also 2nd among qualified AL starters, just 1.2 points behind teammate Nick Martinez and could help stifle Milwaukee double digit walk rates against RHP this year (10.8% as a team).
Freddy Peralta won the ALCS MVP because just one of his three barrels left the park, as opposed to both of Drew Rasmussen’s barrels. Rasmussen posted a 24 K-BB% and 33.3 HardHit% in that series as opposed to Peralta’s 5.9% and 34.3%.
This, following Rasmussen’s lone ALDS start against the Yankees, where he merely struck out 10 of 26 Yankees through eight innings of one-hit, shutout ball.
In addition to his overwhelming 26.3 K-BB% this postseason, Rasmussen has kept 49% of his contact on the ground.
Rasmussen’s 2026 3.30 SIERA, 3.21 xFIP, 2.81 FIP and 3.06 xERA have all been bettered in the postseason.
Rasmussen actually did face his former team in the second start of the season, striking out eight of 20 Brewers, his only earned run over five innings coming on a home run.
He’ll attack RHBs with three main pitches (sinker 34%, cutter 31% and four-seamer 21%), all with more movement than average, including 17.9 inches of iVB. It’s uncertain how much of that has to do with the Trop averaging 17.4 iVB, more than half an inch higher than any other park, whereas American Family Field was just below average at 15.5 inches.
However, AFF also increased strikeouts by 10% on average, more than any other park in the league outside Seattle and eight percentage points more than the Trop, so he really shouldn’t suffer too much from the park adjustment.
He also actually averaged 19 inches of iVB in his lone postseason road start in Cleveland without any boost to his velocity.
Rasmussen will throw LHBs four different pitches between 17% and 32% of the time (four-seam 32%, cutter 27%, changeup 18% and sinker 17%).
All three fastball variations rated elite with Bot Overall grades of 60 or better on the 20-80 scale and 109 or better on the Pitching+ grading scale where 100 is average. This resulted in an overall 2.97 Bot ERA and 114 Pitching+.
LHBs had a .259 wOBA against Rasmussen this season with RHBs at .229, though batters from both sides of the plate ended up with a .271 xwOBA against him.
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