Thursday 9/25 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Pirates @ Reds

Braxon Ashcraft did not allow a run and struck out six without a walk in his last outing. On the one hand, it’s very impressive, since he only faced nine batters. On the other hand, he threw just 33 pitches after 70, 63 and 71 over his previous three.

While we don’t have to worry about conservation efforts with Nick Lodolo and he did strikeout seven of 23 Cubs last time out, he’s also allowed at least four runs in three of four starts since returning and only recorded a single sixth inning out. He’s allowed five home runs (all in his last two starts), but has an 18.4 K-BB%, 34.4 HardHit% and just six barrels allowed during this span. Lodolo’s .299 xwOBA allowed over the last month further illustrates some bad fortune in his .339 BABIP and 20 HR/FB.

If we get three strong innings from Ashcraft, that’s fine. The Pirates are generally following these guys with another good young pitcher.  And even if not, the Pittsburgh bullpen has the 11^th best pen estimators L30 days, along with a solid defense against a below average offense. Alternatively, Lodolo is in a great spot (PIT 74 wRC+ Hm/77 v LHP) with a more middling bullpen (17^th), but equally strong defense (even better by projected lineup).

Under 8.5 (-118) FD 1.18u

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Rays @ Orioles

The Rays have not let Drew Rasmussen exceed 82 pitches in any of his last four starts, no more than five innings and just three innings on 76 pitches last time out, despite generating 83.3% of his contact on the ground with just one walk.

Cade Povich’s 7.5 K-BB% over his last three starts has him down to 15.8% on the season. However, he’s allowed just three barrels (6.8%) and still has allowed 11.8% Barrels/BBE on the season. He walked four Yankees in his last start.

Twins @ Rangers

One start after striking out nine of 23 Diamondbacks without a walk, Bailey Ober walked two of 25 Guardians with just one strikeout. Even odder because of his reverse split. He averaged 89.4 mph on his fastball, which is exactly what he’s averaged over his last six starts too.

Tyler Mahle struck out six of 19 Marlins in his return from more than three months on the IL. He went 63.2% fastballs and 30.9% splitters. He usually mixes in 12% cutters and 10.6% sliders too. While PitchingBot appears to be a super fan, Mahle doesn’t have another non-FIP estimator within two runs of his 2.20 ERA with just a 10.4 K-BB% and 22.2% of his barrels leaving the park.

There is no line available for this game yet. I have little confidence in either arm, but especially Ober here and with temps in the lower 80s, there’s a chance the roof in Texas could be open for this one, which bumps the run environment above 10% on average. I still only have it around eight with these two lineups though.

Astros @ Athletics

MLB.com is TBD here, but Roster Resource is listing Framber Valdez, while I can find nothing on Twitter. With just a 6.1 K-BB% and 54.3 GB% (which is pedestrian for him), Framber has allowed 41 runs (38 earned) over his last 51 innings, still allowing just 6.5% Barrels/BBE, but a 45.3 HardHit%, which has led to a .323 BABIP. While estimators are two runs better than his 6.71 ERA during this stretch, that’s still not good.

My boy, J.T. Ginn is coming off a two run quality start in Boston. Generating more than half his contact on the ground (53.5%) with an 18.1 K-BB% and 4.57 ERA that matches his FIP (4.65), but is more than 0.85 runs above all other non-pitch modeling estimators, you can probably guess where I’ll end up if the market ends discounting him again. The reason I mention pitch modeling is his large discrepancy via Pitching Bot (4.67 ERA) and Pitching+ (109).

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

Prior to his last start, I wrote…

Yoshi Yama has followed up four straight outings with exactly six strikeouts with three with exactly 10. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of the last three with exactly one run in each. He has followed up three four hit efforts with a pair of one-hit outings. While below some other estimators, Yamamoto’s 2.66 ERA matches a 2.69 xERA and 2.67 dERA. In fact, he’s the only guy in the entire league that dERA likes.

You may be happy to know he kept one of those streaks going, allowing a single hit for a third straight start and did not allow a single run over 5.1 innings. Why so few innings on 108 pitches? Because he walked six.

Zac Gallen struck out nine Phillies in his last start and completed six innings for the seventh straight time. It was his first time during that streak completing seven innings though. In fact, he’s completed six innings in 12 of his last 15 starts with a 17.2 K-BB% and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE. Gallen’s 3.53 ERA matches a 3.63 FIP and 3.54 xFIP during this run. Knock it down to six starts, it’s even better with an 18.6 K-BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE and 38.5 HardHit%. Gallen started so poorly that he still has a deciving 4.70 ERA that’s at least a quarter run above all estimators.

For much of the same reasoning I backed the Diamondbacks on Tuesday night, I’m continuing to do so here. I certainly cede that Yamamoto is the better pitcher, though not with as large as a gap as earlier in the season. Closer to about half a run now. However, I cited the Dodgers owning a wRC+ just a single point better than the Diamondbacks since the trade deadline with a much worse defense and now the Dodger pen struggles have equaled those of the Diamondbacks over the last 30 days. The Dodgers have the 23rd worst estimators, the Diamondbacks 25^th, separated by just 0.04 runs. And guess what happened Tuesday? The Dodger bullpen blew a 4-0 lead. Both of these teams are still fighting for something, so there will be no backing off.

ARI +130 (FD) 1u

Marlins @ Phillies

As mentioned last time out, Jansen Junk actually throws very little junk (37.5% fastball, 42.9% slider), yet this is the Junk Buehler matchup. He doesn’t miss a lot of bats (17.1 K%, 8.8 SwStr%), but Junk just doesn’t walk anyone (3.0%) and that has some real life value, especially with a 48.2 HardHit%. It’s better to have nobody on base when every other batted ball is hit hard. Jansen is coming off seven one run innings in Texas (three hits, no walks, five strikeouts) and gets a Philly team with nothing to play for here. A 4.50 xERA and 4.53 dERA are his only estimators above a 4.27 ERA, while connected to some exceptional pitch modeling.

Walker Buehler has allowed just a single run over 8.2 innings for the Phillies, despite striking out just six of 37 batters (8.7 SwStr%). The Phillies simply have him throwing more fastballs (37.2% vs 25.2% on the season). It’s graded slightly better with his new team than the old, but at the same velocity. I’m buying on the much larger sample with all non-pitch modeling estimators above five and a 4.88 Bot ERA (92 Pitching+) not really improving much either.

Bryce Harper has been out of the lineup with an illness and J.T. Realmuto has been a bit banged up. There is absolutely no reason for the Phillies to rush either of them back and I’m even projecting with Harper back in there and still come up nearly even here. The Marlins have a better defense, not a bad offense and even similar bullpen estimators (both teams are bottom five last 30 days – has me considering an over too if PHI lineup is actually at full strength). Then there’s the starting pitching. One guy has estimators a bit above four and the other a bit above five. The Marlins also still have some post-season life to motivate them as well.

MIA +142 (FD) 1u (considered 1.5)

Tigers @ Guardians

MLB.com has TBD. A twitter search revealed only that the Tigers would be using someone from their 40 man roster. Roster Resource is listing Keider Montero. I can’t believe the Tigers would complete the largest collapse in MLB history with Keider Montero on the mound, against whom LHBs have a .389 wOBA and .398 xwOBA against.

Parker Messick has posted a 2.08 ERA and 2.16 FIP over his first six major league starts. Just one of his barrels has left the yard, but he’s only allowed four (3.8%) with a 29.2 HardHit%. This, along with an 18.3 K-BB% (3.5 BB%), has allowed him to post four quality starts already, allowing more than two runs just once. Messick has solid pitch modeling (3.64 Bot ERA, 108 Pitching+), which is actually worse than all his remaining estimators, running as low as a 2.64 xERA.

No line on this game until the Tigers figure out their next (maybe last) move. The DraftKings slate is actually the one starting earlier the FanDuel slate tonight. Obviously, if it’s Montero, your looking for Cleveland bats, even in a negative run environment, one that is worse for RHBs. Messick, being a LHP here, is currently my top pitcher and second favorite value on this board at $8.8K. And this is despite only one projected Tiger (Riley Green 76) below a 100 wRC+ vs LHP this year. It’s a combination of the board, the environment and his own dominance so far.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

White Sox @ Yankees

Despite allowing 16 runs (13 earned) over his last 26 innings, Davis Martin actually has two quality starts over his last five and three over his last seven. He did strike out five of 18 Yankees, but was also hit pretty hard by them during this stretch. When you’re barrels allowed (11% of contact) is larger than your K-BB (7.1%) during a five start run, that’s also a problem.

Carlos Rodon struck out eight Orioles over seven innings in his last start. It was only his second time with more than five over his last nine starts and first time with more than six. His 20.9 SwStr% was his first time above 12% during this time too. The Orioles have a team 24.6 K% vs LHP and right now, it’s about five points worse than that. It’s one of the best matchups in baseball for a LHP. Interestingly, the White Sox don’t strike out a lot against LHP. The currently projected lineup includes only a batter or two above 22.5%.

While Rodon is still a top five arm for me, that’s not really saying too much on a five or six game slate. He’s the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, where I think he has some value, but not the most value. At $300 more on DraftKings, I think he’s overvalued in a sneaky marginal spot. Also, while not claiming the White Sox have any single edge in this game, I will be watching this line because everything has a price and above +250 here might be mine.

Red Sox @ Blue Jays

While Brayan Bello’s issues against LHBs (.304 wOBA, .347 xwOBA) is less of a problem against the Blue Jays, he’s also allowed 14 runs (13 earned) over his last 20 innings with a 4.5 K-BB% (not above 5.6% in any of the four starts) and 45.5 HardHit%.

After posting a 29.2 K-BB% over his first three starts, Shane Bieber has put up just a 13.9 K-BB% with his strikeout rate dropping 14.2 points alone over his last three. The larger issue is that his 12.4% Barrels/BBE and 47.4 HardHit% have remained relatively steady. Bieber averaged 92.9 mph in his first three starts, none lower than 92.7 mph vs 92.2 mph over his last three, none better than 92.5 mph and declining in three straight starts.

The projected Boston lineup includes six batters with a 22.9 K% or worse against RHP. That’s what’s keeping Bieber as my top FanDuel arm and second ranked DraftKings one behind Messick. I currently have him as my second best Fanduel value and fourth best DraftKings one, but don’t be afraid to go contrarian against him if not rostering him. He’s certainly been trending downward if not exactly poorly.

Mets @ Cubs

The only reason I’m even writing this today is so that I could talk about this spin doctor one more time. I stupidly made the comment on Twitter about the younger Mets pitchers, specifically Nolan McLean getting more called strikes and lesser swing throughs because of their stuff moving in and out of the zone. Well, yes. This is true. McLean’s 21.1 CStr% is best on the full day board and 4.8 points above league average. But he also finished with a season high 16.3 SwStr% in that game that pushed him up to an 11 SwStr% on the season. With a 19.4 K-BB%, 64.5 GB% and just 5.8% Barrels/BBE, the Mets are right to set him up to pitch their first post-season game if they happen to fall into it.

Two starts back, Shota Imanaga broke a streak of seven straight quality starts, the first five of which included seventh inning outs in each. The last three all allowing three runs. Imanaga is now up to five straight starts allowing exactly three earned runs (four overall last time out), but just five innings in each of his last two. Imanaga’s 16.5 K-BB% over his last seven starts matches his season rate exactly. However, he has one start in there where he struck out nine Rays without a walk. Knock that out and he hasn’t otherwise exceeded 17.4% during this stretch. And while a fly ball pitcher isn’t the worst thing to be in Chicago in the cooler months, he’s allowed 12.7% Barrels/BBE over his last 11 starts with just two games with a single digit percentage and an overall 48.6 HardHit% over this stretch.

Imanaga’s best estimator is a 3.79 Bot ERA. McLean’s worst is a 3.65 Bot ERA with a nine point separation in their Pitching+. Move to Imanaga’s second best and McLean’s second worst and it’s a three-quarter run gap. The Cubs have the slightly better bullpen, but we can avoid that. We can’t avoid their massive defensive edge here, but with comparable offenses, that doesn’t make up for the pitching deficit here.

NYM (-105) (F5) 0.53 units

That being said, the projected Mets lineup vs LHP offers a strikeout rate averaging a point higher than the Cubs vs RHP and Imanaga does have that defensive edge, so at a much lower price, he’d rate the better daily fantasy value here.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Royals @ Angels

Michael Lorenzon has turned back into his former self, striking out just eight of his last 52 batters after a seven start stretch where he posted a 20.5 K-BB%. There are a couple of caveats here though. He faced the Phillies and Blue Jays in his last two starts and he still posted a 12.5 SwStr% against the former. The projected Angels lineup averages (AVERAGES!) a 30.9 K% vs RHP this year with only Schanuel below 25.9%. The Angels are looking the average pitcher look like peak deGrom (well, not exactly, as peak deGrom was closer to a 40% strikeout rate).

At least Mitch Farris’s 11.6 K-BB% is above his 8.8% Barrels/BBE through four starts, but all of his estimators are above four and a half with the worst pitch modeling on the day.

Let’s start with a pitcher prop here. I don’t know the exact lineup or the umpire, so I’m going to only go half a unit here:

Lorenzen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+116) FD 0.5u

I have Lorenzon rated very similarly to a much better pitcher in Rodon on Thursday and that’s all about matchup, making him my 2B on FanDuel 4B on DraftKings. Either way, he’s cheap (only $7K on DK) and my favorite value on either site.

Rockies @ Mariners

Bradley Blalock’s pitch modeling looks good only next to Mitch Farris’s today. With just a 2.0 K-BB%, 11.7% Barrels/BBE and 45.1 HardHit%, he’s a difficult roster even in this park. I know what McCade Brown did last night, but the only thing that may make me consider his $5K DraftKings price tag is that the Mariners could have the division clinched by Wednesday night and even then, Lorenzon is just $2K more.

No idea what the Mariners are doing here. Roster Resources are listing, who, besides not having an estimator below 4.79 (xFIP), also has been pitching in short relief for the last month, having not faced more than nine batters or thrown more than 33 pitches.

That’s a wrap for the regular season. I’m not going to come back around for a six game slate. Be back for the Wild Card games.