Tuesday 9/23 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rays @ Orioles

It may have been more because he was getting beat up than conservation, but Ryan Pepiot lasted only 12 batters and 49 pitches against the Blue Jays last time out. He hasn’t cleared 18 batters in any of his last four, but had thrown at least 90 pitches in his previous two.

Dean Kremer threw 97 pitches against the White Sox last time out after throwing 56, 77 and 75 in his previous three. Like last year, he’s allowed better than league average hard contact with a barrel rate above eight percent.

Tigers @ Guardians

Averaging 98.5 mph (one mph above his season average), Tarik Skubal struck out nine of 27 Guardians in his last start, dispelling any concerns about the side tightness he left his previous start with. If he’s healthy, he’s the top pitcher in the league. No additional proof necessary and he gets a second straight go against a Cleveland lineup that can’t hit LHP.

A day prior to Skubal’s latest effort, Gavin Williams struck out nine of 20 Tigers with two walks. He has eight starts with at least eight strikeouts and nine with three or less. You never know what he’s going to throw, nor can you project results with Williams. Last time out, he completely ditched the cutter (not a single one – 14.2% season) for more curveballs at a season high 34% (22.1% season).

I have Skubal as the better pitcher by a run and a half, but the Cleveland bullpen has been pitching like Skubal as a unit over the last month with an even larger edge over Detroit’s pen. The home dog also has a superior defense plus a 34 point wRC+ team edge over the last week.

CLE +138 (FD) 0.5u

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Pirates @ Reds

The Pirates have randomly been capping their starters at arbitrary pitch counts without any discernable pattern. Maybe Oviedo isn’t part of that with just 30.2 innings on the season, but he did just throw a season high 99 pitches in his last start. His previous high was 85 in the previous start. He’s walked exactly three in four straight and five of seven starts, including one where he faced just eight batters.

Brady Singer missed his seventh straight quality start by just a single out last time out in St Louis. He has a 19.3 K-BB% over that span (14.2% on the season).

Marlins @ Phillies

Edward Cabrera returns from a three plus week IL stint and without any rehab starts on his game log, he could be a bit limited.

A 20.3 K-BB%, 58.3 GB% and 6% Barrels/BBE will put Cristopher Sanchez likely in the top three in Cy Young voting, but what’s he pitching for here? He threw 102 pitches in his last start against the Dodgers. No need for him to throw nearly that many here.

White Sox @ Yankees

We begin the main daily fantasy slate with a pitcher who has accomplished far more than most Rule 5 picks in their first year and after it looked like he might be wearing down, Shane Smith has posted a 20.2 K-BB% over his last four starts, including a two run quality start with seven strikeouts against these Yankees. With four of five barrels leaving the yard and a 68.6 LOB% over this span, the surface results look much worse than the actual performance. Estimators ranging from a 4.11 dERA to a 4.59 Bot ERA (95 Pitching+) are basically league average and not much worse than his 4.06 ERA.

I’m not interested in either of these pitchers from a daily fantasy aspect, but really can’t understand why Gil would be such a big favorite here other than name value? Smith has been nearly a run better overall this year, while you have comparable defensive and base running projected lineups and even though the Yankees have a bullpen edge, the White Sox are only eight spots and  half a run behind them over the last month.

CWS +205 (FD) 1u

Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Lucas Giolito’s 3.46 ERA is more than a run below all non-FIP estimators with career lows 9.8 HR/FB and 11.2 K-BB%. It’s mostly been his unearned runs (12.9% of total). We don’t play many pitchers against the Blue Jays anyway.

The Blue Jays had taken to conserving some innings, but are now in a division race they didn’t expect a couple of weeks ago. Gausman has four straight quality starts with a total of three runs over 30 innings. He has a 21.7 K-BB% over his last 11 starts, completing at least six innings in all of those starts and at least seven in more than half of them.

Gausman is my top pitcher on the board with one caveat, which I’ll get to later. Within $200 of $9.5K on either site, I’d also certainly consider him a top five value too. Six of nine in the projected Boston lineup exceed a 22.5 K% vs RHP this year, though you also have Bregman and Yoshida below 15%.

Nationals @ Braves

Brad Lord has a reasonable 12.6 K-BB% with nearly half his contact (48.6%) on the ground, though his barrel and hard hit rates have spiked (92% & 46.5% vs 6.4% & 41.6% on the season). This pushes his estimators a bit higher, around four and a half over this span.

Hurston Waldrep has made all of eight starts and already he’s been good (23.7 K-BB% first three), bad (6.3% next four) and good again (struck out eight Nationals without a walk last time out). His 4.35 SIERA over the last month matches Lord’s 4.38 mark.

I believe $9K is a bit too pricey for Waldrep with the inconsistency he’s shown so far and Lord doesn’t have enough upside to cover a low price tag in a marginal (at best) spot.

Mets @ Cubs

The Mets are another team that is still trying late in the season. Hmm…after considering their performance at home against the Nationals this weekend, let me rephrase that. The Mets are another team with something to play for this final week and David Peterson has been one of the culprits. He’s allowed 21 runs over his 17.1 innings . He’s struck out eight twice in his last five starts, but also has two starts where he’s walked three with a single strikeout over his last four.

Cade Horton has allowed six runs over his last 58.1 innings. Of course, there’s some BABIP (.195), strand rate  (92.8%) and HR (20% of barrels) shenanigans going on, but he also has a 21.5 K-BB% over his last eight starts. The question is how far the Cubs will push him, essentially locked into the top wild card spot. He’s thrown 79 and 87 pitches over his last two starts. more than any of his previous four.

If we were to expect 80 to 85 pitches out of Horton, he’d be a reasonable DraftKings value for $8.5K. Can we? We also could have both wind and rain in this game.

Twins @ Rangers

With just 31.5% of his contact on the ground, Zebby Matthews is up to 10% Barrels/BBE with just a 38.5 HardHit%. He still has a 17.7 K-BB% on the season, but just 8.8% over his last six starts. His SIERA, xFIP and FIP are all 3.85 on the season. The Rangers have an 89 wRC+ at home. Their projected lineup has an 89 wRC+ avg vs RHP this year.

Just when it looked like Patrick Corbin was finally fading, he’s posted a 19.6 K-BB% over his last four starts, the last three of which have been against playoff contenders who hit LHP well (NYM, HOU, ARI). The problem has been his 12.2 K-BB% and 51.1 HardHit% over his last six starts. That said, only Buxton and Martin have hit LHP well for the Twins with the potential for plenty of strikeouts in the latter half of the order.

I’m sorry. I just can’t give up on Matthews for less than $7.5K in a favorable spot. In an even better spot, Corbin is my fourth ranked starter on Tuesday and possibly the best DraftKings value on the board for just $6.6K.

In fact, the line just dropped on this game as I was ready to move on and I think they’ve made a mistake on the total in a negative run environment (assuming roof closed) with these two offenses.

Under 8.5 (-110) FD 1.1u

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Royals @ Angels

In Cole Ragans first game back from a three month IL stay, he struck out four of 13 Mariners on 62 pitches. Considering the short pitch count, maybe it doesn’t mean much that his 95.7 mph average velocity was higher than any of his previous five major league starts. It’s in line with last season, but a bit below his breakout 2023 season. Maybe we expect five innings and 75 pitches here? With a 36 K% that nearly matches his 39.3 HardHit%, Ragans has been far better than his 5.16 ERA this year (.362 BABIP, 62.1 LOB%).

Sam Aldegheri has faced 25 batters in just 4.1 innings. With projections averaging near five and a half, a 4.2 K-BB% in his lone AAA starts and a 9.4 K-BB% at AA this year, I don’t have to see much else and wonder what the hell he’s even doing in the major leagues.

Ragans is the caveat to Gausman I spoke about above. I mean, if he faces 18 to 20 Angels, he could strike out 10. Everyone except Schanuel in the projected lineup averages at least a 23 K% vs LHP this year. He’d be my top overall pitcher without any workload concerns and I even wonder if I’m selling him short ranking him fifth and I may still play him for $8.8K.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks

The Dodgers have yet to close out the division (three game lead) and Shohei Ohtani’s workload has been declining over his last two starts with 70 and 68 pitches after a season high 87 three starts back. He hasn’t allowed a run over those 8.2 innings, striking out 10 of 31 batters with two walks, but has only reached exactly five innings in two of his starts.

Nine innings without a run and just one hit for Brandon Pfaadt in his last start at home against the Giants. He struck out seven of 28 batters with one walk. That gives him an 18.6 K-BB% over his last four starts and 16.4% over his last 16 after a little swoon in the middle there. That’s a 3.27 FIP and 3.60 xFIP during the entire stretch and probably just a slightly higher xERA with 9.2% Barrels/BBE and a 40.8 HardHit%.

While we’re not interested in either pitcher here, for differing and obvious reasons, I do have some interest in the home dog, whose offense has not suffered since trading away key pieces of their lineup (110 wRC+ since August 1^st is eighth best in MLB). The Dodgers are at just 111. The Diamondbacks also have a better defense and while the bullpen remains a problem, they’re only one-third of a run worse than the Dodgers over the last 30 days.

ARI +144 (FD) 1u

Rockies @ Mariners

There are probably a few Colorado pitchers who might be interesting here. McCade Brown, whom Roster Resource is listing (neither pitcher confirmed for this game), is not one of them.

It seems like Bryce Miller’s 11 strikeouts two starts back were both a product of being home and the Angels. He struck out three of 24 Royals in Kansas City (3 ER, 5 IP) last time out. He’s allowed 12 home runs on 19 barrels (12.1%) over his last 10 starts with just an 11.3 K-BB%, reaching even 10% in one other start besides the Angels. However, Milller has a career 19.5 K-BB% at home (12.5% on the road) and the Rockies are facing the largest negative park transition possible here with a projected lineup averaging a 26.3 K% vs RHP this year.

Should it be Miller, he’s essentially tied for my fifth overall spot with Ragans, but certainly playable for $7.5K or less.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Brewers @ Padres

With a three game lead on the Phillies for top seeding in the NL, who knows if the Brewers are really playing for something here. Considering it often takes more than 90 pitches for Freddy Peralta to get through five innings, any workload decline could be a problem. However, he’s struck out 35 of his last 86 batters and now has an 18.7 K-BB% on the season with just a 33.2 HardHit%. The normal or projected San Diego lineup against RHP averages just an 18.5 K% vs RHP, but in a pitcher friendly environment, Peralta could make that work.

Randy Vasquez was pulled at the first sign of trouble in the third inning against the Mets last time out. It’s almost like the Padres know the 3.94 ERA is a farce. Pitch modeling thinks he’s okay, but all other estimators are more than a run higher.

Peralta is one of the two most expensive arms on either site and while he still may be a top five overall arm in a lower upside spot if we expect him to throw 90-100 pitches, the increased prospect of him not doing that makes him difficult to endorse.

Cardinals @ Giants

Andre Pallante has eight quality starts on the season, four of them with at least seven innings, but just two of them over his last 13 starts. And, of course, he does that with a 59.5 GB%, but just a 6.7 K-BB%.

I just have to keep writing the same thing about Logan Webb because he keeps performing. A career best 20.6 K-BB% with more than half his contact on the ground (53.3%) and his the highest barrel rate of his career (8.2%), but a 40.3 HardHit% that’s more than five points below each of his last two seasons. And the park helps with the barrels. Less than one-third of them have left the yard.

Webb is probably a top three Cy Young vote getter with Sanchez (depending on how much credit writers still give Wheeler). He’s my second ranked pitcher overall, but at a price tag of $9.8K on either site more a decent than great value. The thing really blowing my mind about this game is the defensive numbers. Look at the difference in the two defensive columns in the first chart, between the overall team and projected lineup defenses.

Astros @ Athletics

With just an 11.8 K-BB% and 31.9 GB% through seven starts, I don’t love Cristian Javier’s prospects in Sacramento, but he has generated nine infield flies so far and that’s helped him produce a 3.41 xERA, along with contact neutral estimators and pitch modeling above four and a half.

Solid contact management (37.4 HardHit%) has helped Jeffrey Springs produce six quality starts at home this year with the same 31.9 GB% and just a 12.0 K-BB% too.

No interest in either of these pitchers and we’ll pick it up from here on Tuesday afternoon.