Wednesday 9/17 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Cubs @ Pirates

Matt Boyd has been very shaky and inconsistent down the stretch. Just when you think he’s gotten back on track with seven two run innings against the Nationals, he follows it up with five innings of four run ball, striking out only one with two walks against the Rays. Both starts were at home.

Johan Oviedo recorded his first two sixth inning outs of the season last time out, but also walked three for the third straight start and fourth time in six outings this year. He could do more damage with a 26.9 K% and 13 SwStr%, if he could consistently command better.

Reds @ Cardinals

Brady Singer has allowed eight runs over his last 36 innings, six quality starts, including in Sacramento last time out. He’s posted a 19.4 K-BB%, 51.6 GB% and 35.2 HardHit% over this span, allowing just 22 hits for a .225 BABIP.

Not gonna Pallante, when we don't gotta Pallante. 

Orioles @ White Sox

Holding his velocity steady at 92.9 mph in each of his first two starts this year (94.5 mph in 2023 and 2024), Tyler Wells followed up his first start in San Diego with an even better one hosting the Pirates. He has allowed four barrels (three to San Diego) with at least a 50 HardHit% in each start though. However, with 10 strikeouts and only one walk (42 BF), Wells projects a 2.29 ERA in line with his 2.31 ERA, though pitch modeling is conflicted about the performances.

Again, I’ll point to the last chart below that shows Martin Perez having a strong run value matchup against the Orioles, but poor pitch modeling. There’s his .213 BABIP in action. He’s allowed 19.3% Barrels/BBE over his last seven starts, but just five of those 23 barrels have left the park.

Giants @ Diamondbacks

Justin Verlander tied a season high that he set just five starts earlier with seven innings against the Dodgers, allowing just a single run on four hits (the most he’s allowed in three starts), but also walking and striking out four each. It was also the second time he’d walked four in three starts with none in St Louis in between. Verlander did have an eight game 21.7 K-BB% going before evening out against the Dodgers. That still only brings him up to 13.1% on the season The park has helped him suppress some barrels, as only 13 of his 33 have turned into home runs. All non-FIP estimators are at least one-third of a run above his 3.94 ERA with PitchingBot (4.73 ERA) and Pitching+ (98) in disagreement about his performance as well.

Prior to Brandon Pfaadt’s last start, I illustrated the difference between his first 15 starts and his last 14.

Pfaadt posted an 11.7 K-BB% with 13.4% Barrels/BBE and a 51.4 HardHit% over his first 15 starts and has since put up a 16.8 K-BB%, 8.7% Barrels/BBE and an 18.7 K-BB%, yet his BABIP (.346) and strand rate (65.2%) collapsed as it seemed he was pitching better. Yet, he’s also only allowed seven home runs on his last 22 barrels too.

Of course, he made me look like an idiot, getting torched by the Twins, striking out just two, while allowing two home runs on four barrels with a 57.9 HardHit%.

While it’s been a pair of volatile rides, I have these two pitchers graded very similarly and I even gave the Giants the benefit of having Patrick Bailey behind the plate during a day after night game, which probably won’t happen again, while substituting McCann for Moreno and still show value on the Diamondbacks. The previously red hot Giants are now ice cold (50 wRC+ L7 days) with a better bullpen (half a run), but far worse base running and defense than the home team. There’s an easy way to handle that. Take the better priced F5.

ARI -108 (F5) FD 1u

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Braves @ Nationals

Hurston Waldrep first three starts plus 5.2 IP behind an opener: 20.2 K-BB%, 50 GB%, 30.5 HardHit%, two barrels. He pitched in Cincinnati and Cleveland, while hosting the Marlins and White Sox.

Hurston Waldrep last four starts: 6.3 K-BB%, 43.5 GB%, 41.9 HardHit%, four barrels. He pitched in Miami and Philadelphia, while hosting the Astros and Mariners.

When the going gets tough…

Brad Lord has a 5.19 ERA in 10 starts since being reinserted into the rotation, but with a .311 BABIP, 65.9 LOB% and seven home runs on 13 barrels. The contact profile is league average with an 11.4 K-BB% that’s a bit worse, but he’s reached at least 13% in five of his last 18 starts. It’s not great, but his contact neutral estimators (SIERA/xFIP) are better than Waldrup’s.

Once again, you’re going to have to point out the large Atlanta edge here. Add in the contact and Waldrup has the better xERA, but also a .338 xwOBA over the last month. The Nationals, despite having the seventh worst bullpen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days, are still nearly two-thirds of a run better than Atlanta, who’s worst in the league. The Nationals have a 99 wRC+ vs RHP, the Braves 98. The projected lineups do give Atlanta an eight point edge (110 to 102), but that’s also relatively small. Yet, we’re getting another decent price on the Nationals as road dogs in a game I have closer to even.

WSH +128 (DK or FD) 1u

Guardians @ Tigers

Last week’s Gavin Williams analysis still holds here, despite throwing his third straight quality start, second in a row with three walks:

With just an 11 K-BB%, his 3.17 ERA is fraudulent (.252 BABIP, 83 LOB%). Often, mixing up your pitches each outing can be a good idea, but for Williams, I think it’s because he doesn’t know what he can command or even wants to throw from start to start. PitchingBot grades nothing except his fastball as an above average pitch.

Jack Flaherty 93.4 mph last start. He struck out seven of 17 Yankees over five shutout innings. Why is that imperative?

His velocity spiked up nearly a mph for a good outing against the Royals in between and then back down a mph (1.6 mph difference) in his last start. His overall numbers are still what you want (18.8 K-BB%) and while his 4.85 ERA matches the pitch modeling (4.87 Bot ERA at least with the 99 Pitching+ a bit more optimistic), all other estimators are more than a run lower with several contact neutral ones not even reaching four. Ninety-three mph seems to be the breaking point the last two years. Anything above and he generally pitches well. Once he gets below 92.5, it becomes troublesome. If only we could know before-hand.

He's getting an extra couple of days here too.

Athletics @ Red Sox

Mason Barnett has unimpressively allowed 12 runs over 12.2 innings with five barrels, but only 16 hard hit batted balls. With just an 11.1 K-BB%, he’s somehow projecting a 3.41 ERA, though his contact neutral estimators are above four and a half. The pitch modeling is somewhere in between and nearly average. It’s also better than Giolito’s.

Lucas Giolito pitched better than expected against the Yankees in his last start. One run and walk each over 5.2 innings with six strikeouts. Surprising because he had a 4.6 K-BB% over his last six starts (11.6% on the year) without a single non-FIP estimator within a run of his 3.31 ERA (six unearned runs). Giolito’s pitch modeling is also the worst of his career and there’s probably not much of a positive takeaway anywhere here, except to say he does have 13 quality starts (12 with one run or less), even if we know the ERA is a giant fluke.

FanDuel seems to be glitching and DraftKings doesn’t have F5 lines available yet, so I’ll have to risk the Boston bullpen edge and play the team with a comparable starting pitcher and offense here.

ATH +158 (DK) 1u

Blue Jays @ Rays

Kevin Gausman has thrown 24 innings of three run ball over his last three starts (yes, just three starts) with a 95 mph average velocity that’s more than half a mph above his 94.4 mph season average, which includes these three starts. He’s struck out 22 of 83 batters with just two walks. He now has a 22.1 K-BB% over his last 10 starts, despite what appears to be slightly declined pitch model grading during this stretch. On the season, his 3.34 Bot ERA is his only estimator below a 3.44 ERA, though none exceed four anymore.

Ian Seymour has posted a 21.3 K-BB% (though just 14% over his last two, as he starts to settle into the rotation with just three starts), but he’s a LHP facing the Blue Jays here, so we really don’t need to go any further than this.

Gausman is my third ranked overall pitcher on a pretty star studded half slate. We don’t have FanDuel pricing yet, but he’s fifth most expensive on DraftKings, where I have him projected as a top three value.

Padres @ Mets

After seven shutout innings of four hit baseball in which Nick Pivetta struck out eight Reds with one walk, he still has a great 20 K-BB% that’s worse than his last two seasons (22.8%) with the major difference being just 40% of his barrels leaving the park this year, rather than 72% last season. In fact, Pivetta’s hard hit rate is three points higher this year than the last two as well. He’s still having a great season, but even his 3.33 FIP is more than half a run above his 2.73 ERA. His other estimators run from a 3.62 SIERA to a 3.78 xFIP. That’s tight and almost conclusively tells you who he is. 

David Peterson’s fourth straight non-quality start last time out with the Phillies scoring three runs in five innings, but striking out eight times with just one walk. His non-FIP estimators (32% home run rate) are a bit higher and wider than Pivetta’s (3.59 xFIP – 4.42 Bot ERA).

It’s only expected to be in the mid-60s at Citi Field on Wednesday, which should mean decent pitching weather, but you couldn’t tell by the way the ball was flying out of a pitcher friendly park on Tuesday. However, Pivetta is the most expensive pitcher on the board and we just don’t like using pitchers against these two offenses, the Mets due to potency and low strikeout rates, the Padres due to even lower strikeout rates.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Mariners @ Royals

Let’s quote another pitcher’s blurb here before their last start:

Roster Resource is listing Bryce Miller in this one and it’s just been a lost season for him. I don’t know if he’s still pitching injured, but he’s struck out just 14 of 88 batters since returning from the IL with 13.2% Barrels/BBE and 54.4 HardHit%. He has a 6.0 K-BB% and 50.6 HardHit% in 10 starts since mid-April.

Miller allowed four runs in 5.2 innings, allowing two home runs with a 75% hard hit rate, but also struck out 11 of 23 batters without a walk. The question is, were we finally seeing the real Miller return or was it just a T-Moblie start against the Angels? The pitch modeling absolutely adored the fastball and splitter here. So what do you do now?

In 10 starts prior to his extended IL stay, Cole Ragans produced a 3.94 Bot ERA and 106 Pitching+, but otherwise not another single estimator even reaching three. His 5.18 ERA was the product of a .382 BABIP and 62.1 LOB%. The good news is that he struck out seven of 11 and seven of 14 in his two AAA starts. The bad news is that he hasn’t made it twice through the lineup yet and will likely be very limited here.

Miller is $6K on DraftKings in a more power suppressing park than T-Mobile against a poor offense, but it’s not a negative run environment and the highest strikeout rate in that projected lineup is just 22.2% for a guy that’s been here for about a week (Jensen). Flip a coin. Play some in GPPs just in case.

Yankees @ Twins

Luis Gil is on fire! He’s allowed one run over his last 12 innings against the Red Sox and Blue Jays…while walking eight of 47 batters with five strikeouts. Yeah…no. In eight starts, not only has he posted just a 4.0 K-BB%, he’s only exceeded 4.5% in a start twice. In addition, he has just a 27.6 GB% and has allowed 9.5% Barrels/BBE. His 4.33 Bot ERA is 1.5 runs above his 2.83 ERA (.254 BABIP, 79.7 LOB%, two home runs on 11 barrels). All other non-FIP estimators are more than two runs above his ERA.

The overall results haven’t been there entirely (8 ER, 16 IP), but Taj Bradley has averaged 97 mph over his last three starts (96.2 on the season) with an 18.2 K-BB%. Like they did with Joe Ryan after stealing him from the Rays, the Twins may have unlocked something in Taj Bradley. He’s throwing a few more curveballs, but It’s the grading on the cutter (24.6% since the trade) that’s really blasted off (71 PB, 123 P+), bringing him to a much improved 4.23 Bot ERA and 100 Pitching+ during this run. It’s not elite, but it’s certainly pitchable.

I won’t go as far as endorsing Bradley for your DFS lineup against the Yankees, but I will go far enough to say that Gil and the Yankees are overpriced by the market with the Twins can’t beat the Yankees narrative probably baked into their games now. Even counting his time in Tampa Bay, Bradley’s estimators are nearly a run better. The Yankees may have every other edge except for smaller home field and base running onces, but that’s certainly not enough for this price tag.

MIN +148 (FD) 1u

Angels @ Brewers

Jose Soriano has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) over his last 6.1 innings, walking eight of 39 batters and I’m just seriously done with this guy.

Nobody could figure out how Brandon Woodruff was excelling with such reduced velocity (near three mph) and worse stuff (3.71 Bot ERA and 101 Pitching+ are easily worst marks of his career) until he allowed 16 runs (13 earned) over 14.1 innings. However, he did follow that up with six shutout two hits innings in Pittsburgh, striking out eight without a walk last time out and now, he gets an even juicier matchup. Woodruff is still holding a 25.1 K-BB% through 11 starts with estimators ranging from a 2.26 xERA to a 3.71 Bot ERA. Take out those bookends and everything else is within a quarter run of his 3.32 ERA.

Woodruff is facing the Angels. Full stop. He’s my 1B pitcher just slightly behind one other arm on Wednesday night and a strong value even at a very high price. Zach Neto just hit the IL. The Angels are likely replacing him with another high strikeout guy. In fact, the new projected lineup averages around a 32% strikeout rate against RHP this year with nobody below 25.4%.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Rangers @ Astros

Jacob deGrom made his triumphant return to Citi Field, allowing just four hits and three runs over seven innings. His 98 mph average velocity was 0.5 mph above his season average and 0.6 mph above his previous three starts. He struck out two of 25 batters with a 5.4 SwStr%, his second worst rate of the season (3.7% against Toronto). He’s been stepping up for big games, striking out eight of 23 Astros in a two run quality start after previously throwing eight shutout innings with seven strikeouts against them. Two starts back, he struck out eight more, but only lasted 5.1 innings with three runs and two home runs. Although he’s hit a 66 BotCmd grade in two of his last three starts, he’s been at just 54 over his last 11 starts (60 on the season). The same can be said with his 110+ Command+ in two of his last three, but 100 over his last 11 starts vs 106 on the season. It would make all the sense in the world if he were battling some fatigue.

With both an 11.5 BB% and K-BB%, Cristian Javier’s best single game Bot ERA is 4.73 and his best Pitching+ at just 95.

I have two pitchers essentially tied for my fourth overall ranking for Wednesday and one of them is deGrom, but at his current price, I’m leaning towards low exposure.

Marlins @ Rockies

Ryan Weathers struck out four of 19 Nationals in his return from a three month IL stay. He didn’t allow a run or walk over five innings. He was down a mph from his first four starts of the season to 96.5 mph, still more than half a mph above last year’s 95.9 mph average. He also generated a 19.1 SwStr% in the start. Removing the game he was injured during, Weathers has a 17.9 K-BB% in his other five starts and a 35.3 HardHit% on the season.

McCade Brown has struck out 10 of 73 batters in four starts, walking nine over 13.2 innings (less than 4IP per start). The only pitcher who rivals his putrid pitch modeling on the day is Martin Perez.

The Rockies don’t strike out as much against LHP (proj. LU avg around 22%), but they still hit like the Rockies (74 wRC+ vs LHP, 31 wRC+ L7 days). Weathers may be the top value on the board and should be able to efficiently get in five to six innings for less than $7K on DraftKings. And with every edge in this game, even in areas the Marlins are not good, I think they should be larger favorites and we can always knock out the weakest part, the bullpen.

MIA -154 (F5) DK 1.54u

Phillies @ Dodgers

Jesus Luzardo allowed four runs on five hits in the first inning of his last start (Mets) and was then perfect over his next seven innings. He struck out 10 and walked none. There have been other ups and downs, but in 11 starts prior to his two start blowup, Luzardo posted a 21.2 K-BB% with 5.1% Barrels/BBE. In 17 starts since, a 21.6 K-BB% and 33.9 HardHit%.

I’ve been waiting for an erratic Blake Snell to prove it to us and while I’m not sure any home outing against the Rockies gets it down, he did shut them out over six innings with 11 strikeouts. He’s allowed just two barrels with a 29.8 HardHit% over his last seven starts and while he still has a double digit walk rate, he sits at a 20.6 K-BB% over his last four. What really gives him a boost today though is a Philly lineup without two of their best RHBs (Turner, Bohm). The lowest strikeout rate against LHP among those I project to face him is Bryce Harper’s 22.1%.

Luzardo is the guy tired with deGrom for fourth/fifth on my board. Slightly cheaper, slightly better value. Snell is my 1A to Woodruff’s 1B, also cheaper, better value because this matchup is a bit more attractive than it looks. I would certainly consider him a great Woodruff pivot if it looks like ownership could get out of line against the Angels, but its close enough that things could flip in either’s favor with the right lineups/umpiring (we really don’t have to worry about weather in these two spots).

We'll update and add more DFS notes in the afternoon.