Tuesday 9/16 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Braves @ Nationals (G2)

Chris Sale has struck out nine in each of his three starts back from the IL and 27 of 68 overall. His 25.8 K-BB% is very similar to when he won the Cy Young last year (26.5%).

MacKenzie Gore has struck out just seven of his last 41 batters with four walks and five runs in 10 innings. Despite an 8.2 K-BB% over his last 13 starts, his overall 18.6 K-BB% is a career high, producing a career best 3.72 SIERA and 4.12 xERA.

These are the pitchers currently scheduled to pitch the second game of the double header. With Atlanta projecting the worse defense, bullpen and base running for this game, the home dog may be worth a shot. If either pitcher is swapped out, well, we’d gain much more by Sale ending up pitching the first game than we’d lose if Gore were to swap out.

WSH +168 (FD) 1u

Guardians @ Tigers

Joey Cantillo struck out just five of 27 Royals, but more importantly, did not walk a single one over eight shutout innings (four hits). If he can harness that command more often, he may be able to go places with his 27 K% and 6.6% Barrels/BBE.

Despite three barrels (five over his last two starts), Casey Mize still produced his first quality start in over a month last time out (two runs), while striking out eight of 22 Yankees. If he can carry his overall productive season (15.5 K-BB%) into the post-season, the Tigers may have a formidable rotation.

Cubs @ Pirates

Two games back, the Cubs pulled Cade Horton after five no-hit innings (75 pitches, 16 BF). Last time out, in Atlanta, they let him pitch into the seventh inning on 87 pitches. That’s the most pitches he’s thrown in a start since prior to the All Star break. I don’t know what the plan is for him now and his 10 game 0.84 ERA is certainly not sustainable (.190 BABIP, 94.5 LOB%, 20% HR/Barrel rate), but he has been pitching very well during this stretch (16 K-BB%, 7.2% Barrels/BBE, 39.6 HardHit%).

Paul Skenes was pulled after five two-hit innings last time out. He threw just 64 pitches, but still struck out eight of 16 batters. He had been above 92 pitches in each of his previous eight starts. I’m assuming the Pirates are going to be conserving his pitches for his last few starts.

Skenes is the very likely NL Cy Young winner, but we could be seeing four innings of a Pittsburgh bullpen with estimators averaging exactly a run more than Chicago’s over the last month. With a far better offense, defense and base running, I make the Cubs the small full game favorites.

CHC +110 (FD) 1u

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Athletics @ Red Sox

Without much interest in this game, I’ll just note that Jeffrey Springs has a 4.28 ERA that matches his 4.30 xERA. He continues to manage contact well without missing many bats these days. All those numbers are available on this page.

We also have to mention that the Red Sox were a bit late with Connelly Early, a left-handed pitcher making his debut in Sacramento tonight. This is certainly not where we want to roster a pitcher making his debut. He's a 45+ Future Value (Fangraphs) with strikeout rates above 30% at every level and walk rates nearing double digits. 

The above was a short blurb written after Early replaced May in Sacramento for his debut. He struck out 11 of 21 batters with one walk. Payton Tolle had a similarly strong debut as a fellow left-handed Boston pitching prospect, one that came with more hype. He ran into a wall in his second start and has been more limited since. I wonder if the Red Sox will do the same here and pull him…uhm, Early?

Padres @ Mets

Michael King struck out two of 19 Reds in his return from the IL exactly a month after his previous start, in which he struck out just one of 11 Red Sox. The 63 pitches he threw against the Reds suggest potential limitations here as well. At around $9K on either site, in a tough matchup, there’s likely no value here.

It’s been mentioned that Clay Holmes will be piggybacked by Sean Manaea the rest of the way giving ups three to four innings of each. As if you were thinking of playing him against the Padres anyway.

Blue Jays @ Rays

Jose Berrios has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five starts, but also four unearned runs and six runs in the other start, while posting an 11.8 K-BB% during this stretch, bringing his season rate down to 12.4%. When the K-BB is barely above the barrel rate (11.1%), you’re in trouble, as Berrios’s 4.75 xERA illustrates. His best estimator is a 4.36 xFIP that’s still more than one-third of a run above his 3.99 ERA. Nine of his 80 runs  have been unearned.

Ryan Pepiot hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts with a 17.3 K-BB% over that span, but hasn’t gone more than five innings or 18 batters in any of them and had his last start skipped for “fatigue”. I can’t imagine he’ll be pushed at all here and we wouldn’t be interested against the Blue Jays anyway.

What I am interested in here is Tampa Bay’s team total at just 3.5 (-146). You have a fortunate starting pitcher facing an above average offense and good base running team with a poor bullpen behind him. That team total seems might light.

TBR o3.5 (-146) FD 1.46u

Mariners @ Royals

Logan Gilbert’s 28.1 K-BB% is easily a career best and while he generally has a large home/road split, his 21.2% road mark is nothing to sneeze at either. The problem for his actual results is that 17 of his 23 barrels (8.2%) have left the park. Good news then, that he transitions to one of the most power suppressing parks in the league for this start. Bad news (for daily fantasy purposes) that only one projected Royal exceeds a 20 K% vs RHP this year. Surprisingly, Gilbert threw seven innings in his first start of the season, but has recorded just two more seventh inning outs all season.

Michael Wacha returns from a short stay on the concussion IL, having pitched 10 days ago. His home run suppression (13 of 37) not only emphasizes the power suppression of the park, but also has his 3.45 ERA matching his 3.57 FIP with no other estimators below four, including a 4.04 xERA, which imagines a more neutral park.

While I only have a couple of pitchers who really stand out for Tuesday night, Gilbert is among the pack directly behind them, but at a higher price than you’d want in a lower upside matchup. However, I do think the total presents some opportunity. Gilbert has non-FIP estimators more than half a run below his 3.54 ERA, while the Royals haven’t hit all year. The Mariners don’t have a strong defense, but the Royals do. Both teams have produced top half of the league bullpen estimators over the last 30 days with the Mariners coming in at third best.

Under 8.5 (-115) FD 1.15u

Orioles @ White Sox

Dean Kremer is generally a pitcher I’m only interested under the perfect situation and this could be one of those, but he’s been pulled after three innings in each of his last two starts. He struck out four of the 11 Dodgers he faced last time out and didn’t allow a hit, but threw just 56 pitches. There seems to be some concern about his forearm, as that was 10 days ago.

The White Sox let Rule 5 rookie thrown 98 pitches in his last outing. They’re not worried. It didn’t get him through six innings, but he finished one out short in Tampa Bay and didn’t allow a run. While you have to consider his selection a resounding success, his 3.78 ERA is more than one-third of a run below all estimators with poor pitch modeling and just a 12.5 K-BB%.

Yankees @ Twins

Cam Schlittler had struck out exactly eight in three straight quality starts in which he allowed a grand total of one run before running into the Blue Jays two starts back. But he rebounded to strike out seven of 24 Tigers with another one-run quality start last time out. The Blue Jays were the only time Schlittler has posted a K-BB below 20% over his last six starts, during which he’s also only allowed three barrels (4.2%).

While we’re all dreaming on Zebby Matthews’ 19 K-BB% and waiting for his .358 BABIP and 70.1 LOB% to catch up with some concern about the 9.4% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. He’s only allowed a 37.4 HardHit%, but also only collects one-third of his contact on the ground. The Angels felt like the ideal matchup, but he only struck out five of 23 batters and allowed five runs…despite not a single barrel and three hard hit batted balls (18.8%). Run bad, why don’t you? The peripherals have seen some decline (between 12.5 and 13 K-BB% each of last three starts and just 10.4% over his last five) with some velocity loss, but that velocity bounced back up to his season average against last time out. Matthews 108 Pitching+ over his last five starts matches his season score, while his 3.76 Bot ERA is only barely worse.

I have Schlittler ranked very closely with Gilbert and a few other guys, but feel I may be shorting him by only weighing his recent month twice his entire season. He’s also cheaper than Gilbert, which makes him more viable here. I have Matthews, who is even a little bit cheaper, a little bit behind. The drop in K-BB concerns me just enough to place him as a middle of the board value despite there likely being plenty of strikeouts in the Yankee lineup.

Bullpen L30 days...

Angels @ Astros

After striking out 10 of his first 47 major league batters faced, Caden Dana struck out nine of 24 Brewers, but didn’t make it through five innings because he also walked five and allowed two home runs. He’s walked 11 of 71 batters overall, while his 26.8 K% comes with just a league average 10.4 SwStr%. This is not a good spot for him.

Freddy Peralta snapped a five start scoreless streak in Texas last time out, allowing five runs over five innings. It was the third time in six starts he’d failed to record a sixth inning out, despite not allowing any runs in the previous five. The obvious reason is his 10.9 BB% during this stretch. However, he still struck out nine Rangers and has a 30.7 K% over his last 15 starts now. The reason that’s incredibly important today is because he’s facing the Angels (26.8 K% vs RHP, 33.6 K% L7 days, projected lineup avg 31.7 K% vs RHP this year with NOBODY below 25%).

Peralta is the obvious top pitcher on the board and one of my favorite values, especially on FanDuel, where he’s $500 less than DraftKings.

Reds @ Cardinals

After the Mets knocked him around for five runs, Andrew Abbott followed up with eight one run innings in San Diego, striking out six of 30 batters. He generally pitches deep into games with an above average 15.1 K-BB% and very low 33.4 HardHit%, producing a 3.48 xERA that’s still more than two-thirds of a run above his 2.79 ERA (80 LOB%), while we have to pay some credence to additional, contact neutral estimators around four and a quarter.

Michael McGreevy has also limited hard contact (38.8%) with just a 3.8 K%, but also with a miniscule 14.2 K%. A couple of things in his favor today are that he’s gone six innings in seven of his last eight starts and has a very large split with LHBs above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA and RHBs below .290.

Abbott is among that Gilbert/Schlittler group and others and should be fine here for around $9K. McGreevy is cheap and could get you a quality start in a solid matchup, but with little upside.

Rangers @ Astros

The Brewers opened the game with back to back home runs in Merrill Kelly’s last start. He lasted 5.2 innings with only one more run, striking out six of 27 with a bit of BABIP .421, though he did allow a 57.1 HardHit%. His 16.4 K-BB% with Texas matches his season rate (16.2%) and though he’s allowed 11.8% Barrels/BBE since the trade, his 42.4 HardHit% is actually slightly lower than it was in Arizona. Kelly is fine with estimators ranging from a 3.80 xFIP to a 4.34 Bot ERA and can generally pitch deep into games, but a .248 BABIP and 10% unearned run rate shines up his 3.21 ERA a bit much and thus the high price tag in a very marginal at best matchup.

Roster Resource is projecting Jayden Murray here and it looks like AJ Blubaugh was just confirmed. Murray started and pitched three innings his last time out, before Blubaugh took over with Colton Gordon following. It may end up being something similar here.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Marlins @ Rockies

It wasn’t great, but it certainly was a welcome bounce back effort for Eury Perez, as he came up one out shy of the worst version of a quality start, but did strike out seven of 23 Nationals without a walk after being pummeled for 12 runs and four home runs over his previous 4.2 innings. The odd thing is that his average velocity has been above his season average in four of his last five starts. It’s nothing special in his first year back from Tommy John (15.5 K-BB%), though only a 4.83 dERA exceeds his 4.67 ERA with strong pitch modeling (3.67 Bot ERA, 109 Pitching+) and 3.44 xERA, despite 8.2% Barrels/BBE with a 45.5 HardHit%.

Giving up that two run homer to Rafael Devers on the second batter of the game and then getting the boot seemed to wake up Kyle Freeland. He followed it up by striking out 10 Padres (at Coors) over eight shutout innings and pitched fairly well in Dodger Stadium his last time out, striking out five of 28 batters over 5.2 innings with four runs, but only one earned. The gap between his home and road K-BB is only 0.5 points now with a 21.8 K-BB% over his last five starts overall. Against LHP, the Marlins are almost as bad as the Rockies overall with five in their projected lineup at a 23% or higher K% vs LHP.

I’m perfectly fine with either of these guys as a low cost SP2.

Giants @ Diamondbacks

Roster Resource is projecting Carson Seymour, a pitcher with a 7.4 K-BB% and just four fewer barrels (18) than strikeouts (22) over 32 innings.  

Three straight quality starts with just one run over Eduardo Rodriguez’s last 18.1 innings. He has just a 12.1 K-BB% on the season and 5.7% over his last 11 starts, but with just a 32 HardHit% over that span. The attraction in this spot is that he can pitch deep into games and has occasionally spiked a big strikeout number and the Giants have a 79 wRC+ with a 24.7 K% vs LHP. He should find some strikeouts here and the Giants are unlikely to exploit his reverse split.

Again, ERod is cheap and fine here, especially in an SP2 role. We have a lot of those type of guys today.

Phillies @ Dodgers

Cristopher Sanchez posted his third straight quality start with exactly one run allowed in each last time out. All he does is post quality starts with 16 in his last 18 starts, 10 of them with seven innings or more, while keeping the ball on the ground 58.2% this year with a 20.2 K-BB%. With only one-third of his barrels leaving the yard and a 79.4 LOB%, his 2.57 ERA is half a run below a matching 3.08 SIERA and xERA, which is still very strong. At this point, I’d be a bit surprised if Sanchez didn’t finish top three in Cy Young voting behind Skenes and maybe Webb.

Shohei Ohtani was pulled after 3.2 innings of shutout ball last time out, reaching 70 pitches after a season high 87 in his previous outing. It was still his third highest pitch total of the season and while the results are exceptional (27.4 K-BB%, 3.2% Barrels/BBE, 32.3 HardHit%), I’m not sure what the Dodgers’ plan is here.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like the Dodgers are going to give Ohtani enough of a leash to be daily fantasy relevant, but Sanchez is my second favorite arm on the board, behind only Peralta hosting the Angels and maybe even the better DraftKings value for $1K cheaper. It’s still a formidable Dodger lineup, even if the loss of Smith hurts against LHP, but Sanchez has been great and there should be some strikeouts for him here. In fact, I’m willing to lock in a generous strikeout prop price right now.

Sanchez o5.5 Ks (+122) FD 0.5u