Thursday 9/18 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Guardians @ Tigers

Tanner Bibee shutout the White Sox on two hits, striking out 10 of 30 without a walk last time out. Was it the beginning of what the Guardians have been looking for all season or just a great matchup? Well, he had struck out 10 of his previous 80 batters faced. I don’t see anything in the pitch modeling much distinguished from his season numbers or recent outings. He did have a 12.6 SwStr%, but he also had an 11.7 SwStr% against those previous 80 batters.

Tarik Skubal had a rough outing in Miami and was pulled early with some side tightness, which turned out to be fine. On the one hand, why push it here? On the other, he’s probably fine for them to do so and they can deliver the knockout blow to the Guardians. The Guardians have an 80 wRC+ and 23.4 K% vs LHP. The projected lineup averages an 80 wRC+ and 25.3 K% vs LHP this year.

Padres @ Mets

Randy Vasquez struck out nine of 22 batters without a walk last time out. They checked his uniform and it wasn’t an imposter. They checked the opposing uniforms and they all said Rockies. Enough said. He had struck out 10 of his previous 58 batters faced with one walk, so maybe the control is improving. His 22.5 K-BB% over his last four starts brings him up to 4.2% on the season. I’m not going to put too much emphasis on a strong start against the Rockies at Petco, especially since his previous start was also against the Rockies. The Mets can exploit his platoon issues (LHBs .348 wOBA, .397 xwOBA).

Jonah Tong didn’t make it out of the first inning against Texas and the outing really skews his numbers after just three starts. How about four barrels (11.2%) with just a 34.3 HardHit%? We should note that his velocity was down in the game (94.9 mph vs 96.4 and 95.4 in his first two starts), but this all comes down to command. Tong’s Pitching Bot pure stuff grade is 66. His command grade is 38. Tong’s Stuff+ is 100. His Command+ is 86. It’s at least possible that circumstances may have pushed him through AAA a bit too quickly, but we’ll see how he responds here.

Blue Jays @ Rays

Chris Bassitt was pulled after five innings and 80 pitches against the Yankees two starts back and five innings with just 75 pitches against the Orioles last time out. He went through the Baltimore order twice, allowing just two hits with six strikeouts, so this appears to be yet another conservation effort. Bassitt’s 3.90 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all non-pitch modeling estimators (4.26 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+), though the few guys like him that thrown seven or eight different pitchers are a bit harder to nail down. Issues remain against LHBs (.347 wOBA, .345 xwOBA) and you bet the Rays will try to take advantage of that. Amazingly, Bassitt has only faced the Rays once all season, back in late May, allowing five runs with just two strikeouts in fewer than five innings.

Shane Baz lasted just 2.1 innings at Wrigley last time out. It was a nice afternoon for baseball in Chicago, but if I remember right, wind wasn’t much of an issue and he didn’t even allow a barrel. He was BABIP’d (.750), while walking three of 17 batters too. The funny thing is that Baz’s 5.15 ERA is nowhere near his estimators. Remove the 4.46 FIP with 60% of his barrels leaving the yard and his worst remaining indicator is a 4.08 Bot ERA that’s a bit out of alignment with a 108 Pitching+. Baz has good stuff (24.9 K%), but still gets barreled up a bit too often (9.8%) and has a reverse split (RHBs .346 wOBA, .342 xwOBA) that could be troublesome here.

Afternoon game with expected temperatures in the upper 80s in Tampa gives bats a boost. The Rays will generally line up around six LHBs against RHP and that’s probably the least Bassitt will face. With a near league average pitcher and bullpen estimators over the last month, you could credit Toronto for having a strong defense, but a near average Tampa Bay lineup should score more than 3.5 runs here.

TBR 0ver 3.5 (-130) (DK or FD) 0.65u

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Athletics @ Red Sox

J.T. Ginn’s 4.69 ERA matches his 4.64 FIP because 16 of his 23 barrels have left the yard. Twelve of those home runs were surrendered in Sacremento. This is one of the rare pitching staffs that can call Fenway Park an upgrade. Ginn does allow too many barrels (10.3%), which is stunning, considering his 53.8 GB%. Add in his 18.7 K-BB% and the barrels are a bit less of a problem. Ginn has a 23.8 GB% and 56.7 GB% in 37 innings on the road.

Since running a 2.56 ERA/3.75 FIP/4.07 xFIP split through 10 starts, Bryan Bello has been at 5.63/4.21/4.75 over his last three. He not only has a 4.2 K-BB% during these three starts, he has either a 4.2% or 4.3% K-BB in each of the three starts with a hard hit rate of at least 40%. That’ll do it to you. Bello seems to have backed off his slider in exchange for more changeups, but he’s also faced three predominantly left-handed lineups in the Diamondbacks, Yankees and Guardians. Bello is another pitcher who has a bit of a split problem (LHBs .298 wOBA, but .338 xwOBA).

I pretty much know every time Ginn pitches, I’m probably going to be on him. He’s generally one of the most undervalued pitchers in the market (DFS and betting) and this is not different. I have him almost exactly two-thirds of a run better than Bello overall. Not counting pitch modeling, which is greatly conflicted on Ginn, his worst non-FIP estimator (3.93 xERA) is still more than a quarter run better than Bello’s best. And I’m giving a full strength A’s lineup a small offensive edge too. The Red Sox are at home with defensive and bullpen edges, but I still make this game nearly even, maybe a small road favorite. I see a similar edge with either line (full game or F5), but am going to opt for the better price and pray the bullpen holds up.

A's +136 (FD) 1u

Mariners @ Royals

From one of the most undervalued pitchers from one of the toughest parks to one of the most overvalued from the most pitcher friendly one. We all know the story now. LHBs have a .366 wOBA and .349 xwOBA against Luis Castillo this year, which bumps up to a staggering .430 for LHBs when Castillo is outside T-Mobile. But he’s coming off six innings of one run, three hit ball! That’s true. It was also the Angels at T-Mobile. I’m assuming I’m not picking up any new readers today, so you probably know what that means and he struck out just five of 23 batters. The other two starting pitchers for the Mariners in that series set season highs for strikeouts. Now, perhaps the power suppression of Kauffman helps him a bit and while the Royals can stack up six or so LHBs, they don’t have many quality ones.

Stephen Koleck had an 8.9 K-BB% with San Diego and has been between 10.7% and 13.6% in each of his three starts for the Royals, while still keeping a bit more than half his contact on the ground. It’s something at least.

Marlins @ Rockies

Sandy Alcantara has gone at least six innings in each of his last six starts, allowing more than two runs once and completing seven innings four times. A few less barrels, but the contact profile hasn’t changed much during this stretch. The K-BB has doubled (22.7%). Specifically, the walk rate has been halved. Pitch modeling has been telling us he’s not that far away for a while now, but he wasn’t giving us any reason to believe until recently.

Quality starts with two runs or less in four of Tanner Gordon’s last five starts, three of them at home. He has struck out nine Cubs (Coors) and nine Padres (Petco) over his last three starts. That accounts for nearly one-third of his strikeouts this season in 13 starts and two of his four starts with a double digit SwStr%. Both pitch modeling systems have him a bit better overall with improvements in his fastball grade over the last month, but Pitching+ still has him below average. His contact neutral estimators are now in the lower fours for the season.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Cubs @ Reds

This is our only unconfirmed pitcher on the board. Roster Resource is listing Colin Rea. The Cubs clinched a post-season spot on Wednesday and I’m not sure they can move much from their current spot if at all. Maybe they want to bury the Reds? Rea has allowed 14 runs (13 earned) over his last 19.1 innings with seven barrels (11.5%).

Hunter Greene was lit up in Sacramento last time out. He faced 14 batters with four of them hitting the ball hard (two barrels), while also walking four. Coming off seven one hit innings against the Mets with 12 strikeouts, I think we can brush this under the rug for now? He has the best pitch modeling on the board. Tarik Skubal is on this board.

Yankees @ Orioles

Just seven runs over Max Fried’s last 32.1 innings with a 62.2 GB% and 31.5 HardHit%. We’ve been looking for some weaker contact all season (37.2 HardHit% is still his worst since 2019), but Fried’s K-BB has actually dropped over the last month (12.9%). He has been above 15% in three of his five starts, so it shouldn’t be that concerning with his struggles against Toronto and Houston. His 16.2 K-BB% is nearly a point above last year, but below his career 16.9% mark.

Cade Povich runs a solid 16.3 K-BB% with a terrible contact profile (11.9% Barrels/BBE, .48 HardHit%), which is a problem with the Orioles bringing in the fence in left. Wall or fence? Thirteen of his 17 home runs have been surrendered at home, 11 of those to RHBs.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Angels @ Brewers

Yusei Kikuchi most recently threw six innings of one run baseball (four hits), but only struck out three. His 13.2 K-BB% with 9.4% Barrels/BBE is unbefitting his 4.08 ERA with all estimators except some decent pitch modeling more than one-fifth of a run higher.

Six runs, five earned over Quinn Priester’s last 22.2 innings, but with just an 11.8 K-BB%. In fact, while he’s continued to generate most his contact on the ground (56.6%), the K-BB has cratered to 10.1% over his last eight starts after a seven start run at 22.7%.

Giants @ Dodgers

This is one hell of a matchup with both teams fighting down to the wire. Logan Webb is coming off a six run effort against these Dodgers that was BABIP fueled (.643). In two other starts against the Dodgers, he allowed six runs with a 38.5% strand rate and also posted a seven inning quality start. Webb, assuming he pitches well here is likely a top three Cy Young candidate (although his opponent is rocketing up that board) with a career best 20.7 K-BB%. He’s posting his worst barrel rate in three years (8.3%), but best hard hit rate (40.7%) by more than five points with 53.2% of his contact on the ground.

Yoshi Hama has followed up four straight outings with exactly six strikeouts with three with exactly 10. He’s gone at least seven innings in each of the last three with exactly one run in each. He has followed up three four hit efforts with a pair of one-hit outings. While below some other estimators, Yamamoto’s 2.66 ERA matches a 2.69 xERA and 2.67 dERA. In fact, he’s the only guy in the entire league that dERA likes.