Thursday 9/11 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Pirates @ Orioles

Johan Oviedo has been above an 11 SwStr% in all five starts, but he’s also walked three in three of them, including one where he faced only eight batters. A 13.3 BB% takes back a lot of what his 28.9 K% is accomplishing, In fact, with that many pitches, I’m surprised he’s finished five innings in three of his last four starts with a high pitch count of 80 and then I realized the .205 BABIP and 80.7 LOB%. With that swinging strike rate, a 21.7 IFFB% (five of 46 balls in play) and a 76.1 Z-Contact%, Oviedo is a very interesting arm, but not one I want to chase until he’s able to refine his control.

With a .337 BABIP and 68.3 LOB%, Cade Povich is the polar opposite of Oviedo in those metrics. In fact, his 16.2 K-BB% is only slightly better, but comes with fewer walks, which should allow him to pitch deeper into games, but the contact profile is such a mess (12.1% Barrels/BBE, 48.9 HardHit%) that he’s completed six innings just once in his last 10 appearances (he worked behind an opener twice).

Rays @ White Sox

Ian Seymour has a 22.4 K-BB%, 26.1% over his last 27.2 innings with a 14.4 SwStr%.

Shane Smith has a 16.3 K-BB% over his last six starts (13.7 SwStr%), up about half a mph in velocity, but has somehow allowed just seven barrels (7.8%) with a 39.3 GB% and 51.1 HardHit%. This likely explains why he has just two quality starts during this stretch.

Astros @ Blue Jays

Cristian Javier has struck out 22.5% of batters and allowed just three barrels (5.4%) over five starts. However, he’s done this with a 9.6 SwStr% and 13.5 BB% with the worst pitch modeling of his career. In fact, he has the worst pitch modeling of all of Thursday’s pitchers as well.

Kevin Gausman has gone at least six innings in eight of his last nine with a 21.5 K-BB%. He’s allowed more than two runs just twice over this span with at least seven innings five times.

I have leans towards the Blue Jays and over, but with small enough of a sample size on Javier to not act on it. I generally look for a slightly larger perceived edge than usual in these situations.

Nationals @ Marlins

MacKenzie Gore has a 20.1 K% and 8.7 K-BB% over his last 10 starts and that includes a 10 strikeout game in San Francisco. His 4.15 ERA matches his 4.15 xERA this season.

Ryan Weathers averaged 97.2 mph on his heater over his first five starts of the season. That’s 1.3 mph above last season, 2.1 mph above the season before and 3.7 mph above his 2022 with the Padres. The result was a 17.2 K-BB% through his first four starts before leaving his last one after three innings with a lat issue that has cost him three more months after he missed April and half of May. Weathers also posted a 34.3 HardHit% with his 3.28 ERA matching a 3.25 xERA as well. He has sat half a mph lower (96.6) in his rehab starts, though I don’t have per game info. Weathers hast struck out 16 of 63 AAA batters, facing 18 in his last start and should be near a full workload on Thursday right off the bat.

Once again, FanDuel is late on their slate, so we’ll be discussing just DraftKings, who are including all six evening games and starting a bit early. Gore is my third best arm on the board, but only a marginal value for $8.7K There appear to be some strikeouts in the projected Miami lineup, but I wouldn’t vouch for the accuracy of that right now and a lot of it is small sample, as they’re just trying to find what works. I don’t have any strong projections for Weathers, who has missed a lot of time, but he’s just $7.7K and I’m much more confident in a ton of strikeouts in their projected lineup against LHP. I currently see just one guy below 22.9%.

Tigers @ Yankees

This is one of two spots of uncertainty with Roster Resource listing Sawyer Gipson Long, who has a favorable 3.62 Bot ERA and reasonable 3.97 SIERA through 29 innings, but with just a 19.5 K% and 11.1% Barrels/BBE. He’s faced 54 RHBs, exceeding a .425 wOBA and xwOBA against him with all six of his home runs allowed.

Three straight quality starts with a total of one run and eight strikeouts in each before Cam Schlittler schlit the bed against the best offense in the American League, the Blue Jays. He struck out and walked two of 13 each, while lasting just five outs. Schlittler has strong pitch modeling and though his 3.25 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators overall (84.4 LOB%), he’s down to a 3.35 SIERA and .293 xwOBA allowed over the last month. His own reverse split (RHBs .330 wOBA, .358 xwOBA with LHBs below .300) should help him here.

If SGL does pitch here, he’s a pitcher with some talent, who has some value at $5.5K going through the lineup twice. The Yankees are likely to post a lineup with high strikeout rates. Schlittler costs a reasonable $8.5K and is my second overall arm and maybe my favorite DraftKings value.

Royals @ Guardians

Stephen Kolek generates ground balls (50.5%) and really not much else (16.3 K%) and that really hasn’t changed in two starts for the Royals. The ground balls has allowed him to survive a 48.8 HardHit% with just 5.9% Barrels/BBE, but he still has a 4.48 xERA, matching his 4.50 FIP. His .323 wOBA and .369 xwOBA against LHBs is a problem in Cleveland.

Gavin Williams has allowed just solo home runs and nothing else over seven innings in each of his last two starts. He struck out eight Mariners with one walk. He struck out three Rays with three walks. With just an 11 K-BB%, his 3.17 ERA is fraudulent (.252 BABIP, 83 LOB%). Often, mixing up your pitches each outing can be a good idea, but for Williams, I think it’s because he doesn’t know what he can command or even wants to throw from start to start. PitchingBot grades nothing except his fastball as an above average pitch.

Kolek is cheap enough ($7.3K) on a cheap slate that just keeping the ball on the ground and getting through six innings could have some value in a pitcher friendly park, though the splits are a bit scary in this spot. Williams is one of the most expensive and overvalued pitchers on the slate. In fact, the projected Kansas City lineup features not a single batter above a 19.8 K% vs RHP.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Mets @ Phillies

With a 55.6 GB% and 12.2 K-BB%, David Peterson should be and was a league average pitcher through his first 21 starts, no matter what the ERA said. Over his last six starts, he’s improved to a 13.7 K-BB% and 59.1 GB%, but has allowed 25 runs in 30.1 innings. The problem is that most of the good (eight innings of one run ball with a walk and 10 strikeouts) came in one start in Washington. In three games surrounding that, Peterson walked 12. Over his last three starts, it’s a .435 BABIP and 50 LOB%. Amazingly, his 3.72 ERA is within one-third of a run of contact neutral estimators on the season, but his xERA and pitch modeling sit a bit more than half a run higher.

The Mets will face their 45^th consecutive left-handed Phillies starter in a row. Or maybe it just feels that way. Jesus Luzardo has walked at least three in three of his last five starts, all road starts inside the division. He’s allowed nine runs in 16 innings in those starts. In the other two, he’s walked one with 19 strikeouts and allowed a single run in 12.2 innings at home. That pair of starts where he allowed 20 runs over 5.2 innings still has Luzardo’s ERA at 4.01 and while he does have five other starts of at least four runs, he also had a 21.2 K-BB% before those two starts and a 20.5 K-BB% since (19.7% on the season). He has the best pitch modeling on the board with only his 3.54 SIERA within half a run of actual results.

Before telling you who my top pitcher on the board is, I want to point out that with their current injuries (Turner & Bohm), the Phillies are projecting a lineup that includes just a single batter (Stott) below a 23 K% vs LHP. Now that I’ve said that, it’s not Peterson. I just wanted to make you sweat. He costs $9K and may not even be playable here, but I do want to keep my eye on his strikeout prop if we get the right lineup and umpire. Luzardo is the top pitcher on the board and though the Mets’ offense has suddenly gone cold it’s only a marginal matchup in a difficult park, though he seems to pitch well there. The problem is that he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board, who I’m not sure offers much value beyond his price tag here.

Rockies @ Padres

McCade Brown is a 25 year-old pitching prospect with a 45 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), who posted a 24.7 K-BB% in his only 43 innings at AA this season before skipping AAA entirely. He has a -1.3 K-BB% through 9.1 innings and three starts for the big league club. The contact profile has been fine so far, but his projections sit from a little above four and a half to a bit above five. How bad have his first three starts been? His 7.62 xERA is 4.92 runs better than his actual ERA.

Speaking of guys with a negative K-BB, Randy Vasquez has posted a 15.5% mark over his last three starts to bring him up to 2.6% on the year. With a 12.3 K% and 11.6% Barrels/BBE, he has a 3.91 ERA matching his 4.09 Bot ERA without another non-FIP estimator below five and a half. Just one-third of his barrels have left the yard, while each of his .268 BABIP and 78.4 LOB% are a bit off. However, his issue is mainly LHBs (.350 wOBA, .403 xwOBA). I mean, he has a .351 xwOBA against RHBs too, despite a .294 wOBA, but LHBs are really the problem and the Rockies have Mickey Moniak.

This is what it’s come to. I’m backing Vasquez. For just $6.4K (you have to look at anyone with a throwing arm against the Rockies away from Coors at that price).

Angels @ Mariners

Jose Soriano has allowed 20 runs over his last 30.2 innings. He’s thrown scoreless outings of 5.2, six and seven innings during this six start stretch. Let that sink in. He has a 63.6 GB% and 15.5 K-BB% with just 4.8% Barrels/BBE during this stretch. He also has a 50.6 HardHit%, 60.6 LOB% and one more home run than barrel. Some of it is hard to blame entirely on him, but you just never know what you’re going to get from this guy in any given start. Sometimes, like on Wednesday, you don’t even get actual starts when he’s supposed to.

Roster Resource is listing Bryce Miller in this one and it’s just been a lost season for him. I don’t know if he’s still pitching injured, but he’s struck out just 14 of 88 batters since returning from the IL with 13.2% Barrels/BBE and 54.4 HardHit%. He has a 6.0 K-BB% and 50.6 HardHit% in 10 starts since mid-April.

Miller is sooo cheap in such a great park against the highest strikeout upside lineup on the planet! If he can’t get it done here…

It’s funny, after being so aggressive on Wednesday (6-3 +4.34u with 1.5u of big dogs left) we come up with nothing for Thursday. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network where I’ll post if something pops in the afternoon.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results.