Wednesday 9/10 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Brewers @ Rangers

Freddy Peralta has gone five straight starts without allowing a run (21.9 K-BB%) and only has 28 innings pitched over that span because of his 11.4 BB%.

Five straight quality starts (eight runs total) for Merrill Kelly, but he’s thrown 32.1 innings with a 17.1 K-BB%, but just four walks (3.3%).

Red Sox @ Athletics

This is what? The third time we’ve tried Kyle Harrison here. You’ll forgive me if I don’t wish to expound just to have someone else take the spot again. He averages estimators around four, mostly due to great pitch modeling pitching for the Giants earlier in the season.

Mason Barnett projects halfway between four and a half and five. He did strike out eight of 23 batters in his second start after just one first time out, but it was the Angels and he also walked five of them with four runs allowed. He’s allowed nine runs in as many innings.

Diamondbacks @ Giants

Striking out just eight of 47 batters with five walks, Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed just one run over his last 12 innings. There’s absolutely no pattern to how he’s pitched this year (10.9 BB% last nine, a three game stretch with a 31.1 K% earlier in the season, at least six innings in four of five, but just six of his last 12). The thing to mention is that overall, he’s been below average (4.36 xERA – 4.57 FIP), not terrible (5.22 ERA, .340 BABIP, 21 home runs on 32 barrels). I didn’t mention his 4.85 Bot ERA (91 Pitching+) because even that’s not as bad as actual results.

Carson Seymour threw five innings of one run ball on two-hits in just his second start of the season in St Louis. He struck out just two, but with a 53.5 GB% and 20 HardHit%. Over 29.2 innings, he has just a 15.7 K% with a 9.4 BB% and 45.7 HardHit%, including 17 barrels (18.1%), even with half his contact on the ground. He’s already 26 years-old and barely a prospect of any kind (40+ Future Value via Fangraphs), who pitched poorly out of the bullpen before transitioning to a starting role. He doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half and I can’t find anything to like here except the ground ball rate.

The Giants may have a 155 wRC+ over the last week, but just 73 against LHP this year. The projected lineup has just a 93 wRC+ against LHP this year and will probably be without Patrick Bailey’s defense in a day after night game. The D’Backs have a 111 wRC+ vs RHP with the projected lineup averaging 110. They also have the far better defensive projections in this one. I want nothing to do with the Arizona bullpen at this point, but…

ARI (-114) (F5) FD 1u

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Twins @ Angels

Taj Bradley has started three games for the Twins. He’s allowed 11 runs over 10 innings to the White Sox and threw five one run innings, striking out six Padres. His velocity has been up a bit. It actually spiked up more than a mph against the Padres, but then dropped back down near his season average in the second start against the White Sox. He has thrown fewer fastballs over his last two starts (31 K%, 13.2 SwStr%) with improved, but still not above average pitch modeling.

Jose Soriano has allowed 20 runs over his last 30.2 innings. He’s thrown scoreless outings of 5.2, six and seven innings during this six start stretch. Let that sink in. He has a 63.6 GB% and 15.5 K-BB% with just 4.8% Barrels/BBE during this stretch. He also has a 50.6 HardHit%, 60.6 LOB% and one more home run than barrel. Some of it is hard to blame entirely on him, but you just never know what you’re going to get from this guy in any given start.

I have Soriano projected half a run better than Bradley. Both defenses stink. Both bullpens stink. The other edges (offense and base running) go barely enough to the Twins to nearly even this out.

MIN +120 (FD) 0.5u

Pirates @ Orioles

You don’t need me to tell you about the 2025 NL Cy Young winner, Paul Skenes.

Tyler Wells didn’t walk anybody, struck out four of 20 Padres on a 9.4 SwStr%, which is all fine. Three barrels and eight of 16 batted balls reaching a 95 mph EV is not. He projects above four and a half per nine, which I think is a bit pessimistic, but if I think he’s better, that would mean I’m playing the Orioles (the far better mediocre offense here) and I’m not prepared to back him yet.

Royals @ Guardians

Supposed to be Michael Wacha, but he just hit the IL. Roster Resource is listing Angel Zerpa, who is a single inning reliever. A bullpen game might not be a bad deal here if they can mix and match and take advantage of Cleveland’s weaknesses against LHP.

Logan Allen allows less hard contact than you might think (37.6%). He also has an 18 K%, 9.7 BB% and is allowing 9.2% Barrels/BBE, despite a slightly above average ground ball rate.

Nationals @ Marlins

Jake Irvin has allowed at least four runs in 14 of 29 starts and in one of the ones he didn’t, he allowed three runs in fewer than three innings. He has a 6.8 K-BB% and LHBs are absolutely destroying him (.382 wOBA, .411 xwOBA) to the point where you actually think his numbers against RHP (.321, .323) are good.

Eury Perez has hit a wall. While his last two have been disastrous (12 R, 4.2 IP), it’s really been a rough last six starts for him (8.53 ERA/7.41 FIP/5.21 xFIP). His pitch modeling is actually fine through the first four of those starts and Pitching+ even likes what he did against the Nationals last time out, even with a 64.7 HardHit%. He’s at 100 innings after missing all of last year and throwing a career high 120 or so the year before. I’m not saying he’s fatigued, but I can understand if he is.

One pitcher is not pitching well, the other hasn’t all year. Both teams are around average against RHP and Miami is a neutral run environment. The Nationals have a terrible defense. Both teams have bad bullpens. In fact, Miami has the worst bullpen in the league over the last month. They and the Braves are half a run worse than everyone else. Why is this total only eight and a half?

Over 8.5 (-102) (DK) 1.02u

Mets @ Phillies

Clay Holmes has recorded six sixth inning outs with a 4.9 K-BB% over his last 15 starts. He may still currently be their most dependable non-rookie starter.

The Mets handed Cristopher Sanchez a six run beating three starts back. His worst start of the season. He’s bounced back with a pair of seven inning, one run outings since. A 20.1 K-BB% with a 58 GB% is a Cy Young candidate, just not a winner with Skenes around.

Tigers @ Yankees

Jack Flaherty struck out two of 21 White Sox, allowing four runs in less than five innings in his last start. Two starts before that, the Royals got him for eight. That’s two poor offenses, as he’s struck out just nine of his last 67. His velocity spiked up nearly a mph for a good outing against the Royals in between and then back down a mph (1.6 mph difference) in his last start. His overall numbers are still what you want (18.8 K-BB%) and while his 4.85 ERA matches the pitch modeling (4.87 Bot ERA at least with the 99 Pitching+ a bit more optimistic), all other estimators are more than a run lower with several contact neutral ones not even reaching four. Ninety-three mph seems to be the breaking point the last two years. Anything above and he generally pitches well. Once he gets below 92.5, it becomes troublesome. If only we could know before-hand.

Carlos Rodon has a 4.9 K-BB% over his last six starts without exceeding five strikeouts once. His velocity has been above 94.5 mph in two of his last three, but no higher than 93.5 mph in any of the other four. It hasn’t seemed to matter. He’s allowed two runs or less in all six starts, due to .222 BABIP, 79.3 LOB% and just 25% of his barrels leaving the yard. You wouldn’t think it by their lineup composition, but the Tigers have pounded LHP this year.

It is my displeasure to inform you that we’ll only be covering DraftKings for Wednesday. FanDuel is generally late with their slate, so I plan for the DraftKings one and they happen to be different with FD covering all 11 evening games. So, Flaherty is tied for my fifth best overall arm, which isn’t saying much on a 14 pitcher slate, but also my current fourth best value for $7.5K. We may have some cooler weather at Yankee Stadium again (not that it bothered Detroit on Tuesday night) and six of the nine players in the lineup the Yankees have been using against RHP most frequently lately have at least a 25 K% vs RHP this year. I have Rodon barely ahead of Flaherty overall, but a much worse value and potentially one of the worst on the board for $9.2K in a potentially tougher spot. Or at least a lower upside one.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Astros @ Blue Jays

While Jason Alexander hasn’t allowed more than three runs in eight starts, he’s also allowed six runs over his last 10.2 innings to the Yankees, but also the Rockies (in Houston). He does have a 17.6 K-BB% over this seven game stretch to bring him into double digits on the year (11.4%), but with just a 9.6 SwStr% and only above 10.2% once during this stretch. He’s also allowed 46.8% hard contact with an actual decline in his PitchingBot pitch modeling with Pitching+ not improving at all.

Jose Berrios (unconfirmed) is allowing 11.1% Barrels/BBE with just a 20.2 K%. His now substantial reverse split (RHBs .341 wOBA, .367 xwOBA) may be a problem against the Astros

Berrios has just one start in his last six where you would have been happy rostering him and that was in Miami. That last sentence was yesterday’s quote, but being pushed back to this smaller slate, he may actually be an upper half of the board value for just $7.2K. I’m not saying you do it, I’m saying you consider his potential upside more. I’m not at all a Jason Alexander believer and even more, facing maybe the top offense in the league (look up top) with the bullpen struggling since Hader has gone down, I like the Jays to score some runs here.

TOR o4.5 +108 (FD) 1u

Cubs @ Braves

This is expected to be Jameson Taillon’s return. His 18.8 K% and 4.9 BB% are almost exact replica’s of last year (18.5%, 4.9%), but with 9.5% Barrels/BBE (7.2% last year).

Chris Sale misses two months, comes back, strikes out nine in each of his first two starts. His 25.3 K-BB% is fourth in the majors among those with more than 100 IP. His 32.3 HardHit% is third. That’s the comb you want people.

Sale is Wednesday night’s clear top arm. Only one other is anywhere close. He’s probably also my favorite value among the $8K and up crowd. I’m making a significant effort to have plenty of exposure to him on this slate. I suspect that Gilbert, in a better matchup at a lower price, may take away some of his ownership and that’s fine.

Rays @ White Sox

Ryan Pepiot has struck out at least six in 12 of his last 17 starts and hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts, but the Rays appear to be in conservation mode. He hasn’t gone past 18 batters or five innings in any of those three starts. However, the pitch counts are odd with 93 in his last start, 90 in the one before, but just 63 the one before that. Additionally, the White Sox have been a very competent offense over the last month (108 wRC+, 20.4 K%).

No confirmation, but Roster Resource is listing Sean Burke. Without an estimator below four and a half, he may be the worst value on the board.

I’m fine with some Pepiot here in case the workload thing is a fluke, but just beware that the White Sox have become formidable.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Reds @ Padres

You could say the regression monster has found Andrew Abbott over his last six starts with a 5.14 ERA, but his K-BB has actually improved over this run (18.1% to 15.2% on the season). While he has allowed a few more barrels (10.4%), his hard hit rate is still just 38.7% (34% on the season) and I can’t believe I’m saying it, but he may be being undervalued right now. This, despite his 2.88 ERA still being well below estimators ranging from a 3.59 xERA to a 4.59 dERA. Yup, that’s a wide range. He’s kind of hard to pin down and figure out, even for the smartest analysts, of which I don’t claim to be. I’ve never read anyone who’s figured him out, but he’s near 400 innings with a 3.45 ERA/4.31 FIP/4.65 xFIP.

I’ve said this many times, but Nick Pivetta’s 19.7 K-BB% is actually at least three points below each of his last two years. The difference has really been Fenway (and the AL East) vs Petco (and the NL West). Fifty-one of his 80 barrels left the park in 2023-24. This year, just 19 of 46. He’s been in double digits in barrels each of the three years.

I have Abbott and Pivetta rated very similarly and that’s sixth/seventh on my overall board and I’m not on either one of them for at least $8K here, especially with the Padres not striking out. However, when I said that Abbott may be undervalued, I meant that he’s a substantial dog against San Diego’s 94 wRC+ vs LHP. They’ve been platooning less than any other team and really not at all since Bogaerts has been out, leaving in all four LHBs for the most part (.270 wOBA, .283 xwOBA vs Abbott). With a better defense and the top base running team in the league, even giving credit to the Padres for their, well, good rather than great bullpen estimators the last month, I’m still coming up Reds.

CIN +150 (FD) 1u

Cardinals @ Mariners

Mike McGreevy doesn’t miss bats (14 K%, 7.7 SwStr%), but has immaculate control (3.9%) with enough contact on the ground (44.9%) and a solid contact profile (7.6% Barrels/BBE, 39 HardHit%).

Three straight quality starts for Logan Gilbert, who’s 27.9 K-BB% is only behind Tarik Skubal among those with at least 100 innings. Admittedly, the park has saved him a bit from the contact profile (42.4 HardHit%), though 16 of his 22 barrels have left the park, so maybe not as much as it would seem. Still, he’s one of the best pitchers in the league with those peripherals. His pitch modeling is his only non-FIP estimator reaching three.

I’m fine with punting your SP2 with McGreevy here. The park helps an otherwise solid profile except for the strikeout rate and you don’t need much for $5K. Gilbert is my number two overall, as alluded to earlier. I have him slightly less of a value than Sale, but fine anyway. If I’m making DK lineups right now, I’m probably going 55% Sale/35% Gilbert and something like 10-15% without either. The Cardinals are slowly getting some bats back (though Winn was a late Tuesday scratch) with a massive defensive and small base running edge. I really like Gilbert, but think this line is a bit high. I have the Cardinals winning this a bit more than 36% of the time. 

STL +194 (FD) 0.5u

Rockies @ Dodgers

Of course Kyle Freeland responds to getting booted after allowing a two run home run to the second batter of the game by striking out 10 of 26 Padres over eight shutout innings (two) hits at Coors (!) three days later. That tremendous start actually pushes his home K-BB (11.8%) in line with his road K-BB (12.2%) after there’d been a sizable gap all season. Freeland is below average, but not terrible when you get him out of Coors (generally). And over the last month, he has a 3.74 SIERA and .291 xwOBA allowed.

Five more runs to Pittsburgh last time out for Blake Snell and just two quality starts out of eight so far. He struck out 34.7% of batters last season with a 28.9 HardHit%. Sure, a 10.7 BB% is fine with those numbers. He’s still generating weak contact this year (31.1 HardHit%), but with an 11.4 K-BB% and 23.9 K%. His 12.5 K-BB% is the same as Freeland’s road numbers.

Snell is my overall number three starter in a great matchup, but a bit overpriced for a guy not regularly going six innings or dominating. And actually, I’m fine with punting $5K with Freeland too here. He’s been competent on the road, coming off his best start of the season at a time where the Dodger offense has been struggling for a while and beating up German Marquez does not change that outlook.

In addition, I’ll take the big shot with the Rockies here. They may actually have the better defensive lineup here with bullpen estimators that aren’t much worse than the Dodgers over the last month.

COL +280 (FD) 1u

We’ve been very aggressive with some big dogs here, so this could be a disaster or a boon of a day. Not for the weak stomach. We’ll pick up from here with more daily fantasy notes in the afternoon.