Friday 9/12 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rays @ Cubs

A 4.07 Bot ERA (though 108 Pitching+) is Shane Baz’s only non-FIP estimator with a run of his 4.94 ERA. Twenty-six of his 43 barrels have left the park.

Seven innings of two run ball against the Nationals last time out, seemed to turn Matt Boyd’s fortunes around. In fact, he has three starts of seven innings with two runs or less over his last eight starts, but has allowed 21 runs over the other five. Boyd has just a 12.4 K-BB% with 9.2% Barrels/BBE allowed during this stretch.

Pirates @ Nationals

I can’t fathom why this game isn’t yet listed. Both pitchers were confirmed fairly early.

Mitch Keller has bounced back from a rough patch with quality starts in two of his last three, striking out 20 of 69 batters with just two walks and 62.8% of his contact on the ground.

Brad Lord allowed a run over 5.2 innings at Wrigley last time out, after allowing 18 (17 earned) over his previous 12.2 innings. He struck out seven of 21 Cubs, but also walked four.

Coming back to this one late and endorsing the Nationals with the game finally up. I don't see a lot of difference between the pitchers (Keller slightly better numbers - 1/5 of a run), while the Nationals have the clear better offense at home, while bullpens have been comparable recently. 

WAS (-110) FD 1u

Royals @ Phillies

Michael Lorenzon has a 20.5 K-BB% over his last seven starts, only dropping below 20% in two of them, but He’s allowed just six barrels with a 28.8 HardHit% during this span. Statcast is telling me has a .376 xwOBA against over the last month and that just seems odd and I double checked.

I don’t know why the Phillies feel the need to shove Walker Buehler out there.

Orioles @ Blue Jays

Trevor Rogers broke a string of seven straight starts with one run or less, only one with less than seven innings, by giving up two to the Dodgers over 5.2 innings, while striking out six with a single walk. The bum! He may be getting away with a little something with a 46.7 HardHit%, but most of that hard contact must be on the ground because he still projects just a 3.06 xERA. He has an 18.4 K-BB%, but is up to 21.5% over his last eight starts. Even against the mighty Blue Jays, he’s near the top of the pitch matchup ratings with or without pitch modeling included.

Chris Bassitt has a 15.5 K-BB% with a better than average contact profile (36 HardHit%). While he’s been volatile from start to start, overall, the package is very tightly wrapped with a 3.97 ERA within a quarter run of all estimators and within 0.15 runs if you knock out the Bot ERA. I was surprised to find Bassitt going six innings in less than half of his starts and seven innings or more only three times.

I have no problem with Rogers overall, but he’s high priced in an extremely difficult spot. Bassitt is my current third best pitcher on the board, the reason mostly being because the projected Baltimore lineup includes four guys above a 28 K% vs RHP this year and averages 24.3% across the nine. This is also an offense with a 32.6 K% over the last week.

Rangers @ Mets

Jacob deGrom has only recorded one sixth inning out over his last four starts, but it was his last start in an important game against Houston where they pushed him to 97 pitches after not exceeding 90 in any of the previous three. DeGrom was down to 97.3 mph in that start and has been trending down over his last three (97.4 mph) after sitting 98.1 mph over his previous 10 starts. You could certainly understand the fatigue and a bit of conservation, but the Rangers are also fighting for a playoff berth, maybe a division and this is certainly an important start to him. It’s not vintage deGrom, but who’s going to complain about the workload he’s had this season with a 22.1 K-BB% with estimators averaging around three and a quarter.

Jonah Tong has struck out six in each of his first two starts, but his only four walks and three home runs came in Cincinnati last time out. They were the only three hits he allowed, but he did allow an additional barrel (30.8%). He’s thrown 57.5% fastballs so far and while it’s an elite pitch, the lack of pinpoint command so far has dropped it to a 57 PB grade and 105 Pitching+ with the biggest problem being that no secondary pitch has stepped up yet. However, this is a guy with a 29.9 K-BB% in the high minors this year with the larger number at AAA, where he dropped his walk rate to a professional low 6.7%, so I have some faith.

DeGrom is my number four or 4A overall and probably a better value on FanDuel, though $300 more expensive there. I am concerned about the drop in workload and velocity, but he’s still certainly a fine pitcher, facing a suddenly struggling offense after being red hot for a month in a pitcher friendly park and he’ll be motivated. I think Tong will give the Mets a good game here, but can’t really buy into him until he starts commanding better and working a second and even third pitch.

White Sox @ Guardians

The Guardians are terrible against LHP and Cleveland has become one of the most negative run environments in baseball. Look at the last chart down at the bottom. See how high up the board Martin Perez is in the pitch matchup ratings? Then see what happens when we add in pitch modeling? This is the sign of a pitcher who is over-achieving. He doesn’t have a non-FIP estimators below four and a half and his 21 K% is backed by a 7.8 SwStr%.

Tanner Bibee posted his first quality start since late July last time out, but has also struck out a total of 10 of his last 80 batters faced. While his 4.69 ERA is a match for his FIP (4.69), we could say that 27 home runs on 41 barrels is a bit much and not only does Statcast agree, but a 3.82 xERA is his best estimator, although all are more than a quarter run better than actual results.

Bibee hasn’t been good and the White Sox are better, but they still aren’t good. In a negative run environment, we can probably call Bibee a top third of the board value for less than $8K, though I question his upside at this point.

Tigers @ Marlins

Tarik Skubal is one out short of five straight starts of seven innings with no runs allowed in three of them. His 28.4 K-BB% is tops in the majors no matter what inning qualifier you put on it. He’s actually been pretty horrible with a 21.3 K-BB% over his last six starts in which he’s allowed 12.2% Barrels/BBE, but with just a 33 HardHit%.

Four straight quality starts with two runs or less, three with seven innings came to an end last time out as the Phillies got to Sandy Alcantara for four, despite just one walk and barrel (50 HardHit% though). Interestingly, both of these pitchers have a 3.34 SIERA over the last month and Alcantara has the better xwOBA allowed (.280 vs .292), as he seems to have finally rediscovered his command (67 Bot Cmd, 105 Location+ over the last 30 days).

Of course Skubal is the best pitcher on the slate and one of my favorite FanDuel values ($11K), but I’m not sure you’re getting any additional value with a $12K price tag on DraftKings. However, I also think Alcantara is a strong value on FanDuel ($8.5K), but maybe the top value on DK ($6K) and very likely the guy I’m plugging into SP2 most often.

I’m also watching this line and think there may be enough to fire on the dog with the far better defense if it gets above +180. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network to see if that comes about.

Yankees @ Red Sox

Everyone in Yankee-land heaped praise upon Luis Gil for finally compiling his first quality start last time out. He allowed a single run and just three hits to the Blue Jays over six innings. He walked four and struck out one of 24 batters. Gil has just a 4.5 K-BB% on the year, allowing 9.9% Barrels/BBE with a 24.8 GB%. Yes, that’s less than one-quarter of his contact on the ground. His velocity remains down a mph from last year (though its’ been a bit of a roller coaster ride from start to start) with decreased pitch modeling grades across his arsenal and while his Bot Cmd has somehow improved three points since last year, it’s still below average and his Location+ is down five points.

Lucas Giolito also has a 4.6 K-BB% over his last six starts (11.2% on the year) without a single estimator within a run of his 3.38 ERA (six unearned runs). Giolito’s pitch modeling is also the worst of his career and there’s probably not much of a positive takeaway anywhere here, except to say he does have 13 quality starts (12 with one run or less), even if we know the ERA is a giant fluke.

Cooler weather could lower the run environment here, but I’m still nowhere near comfortable with either of these pitchers, but it’s clear by estimators that Gil has been the worse of the two, yet with similar defensive projected lineups and bullpen estimators over the last month, the Yankees are road favorites on the back of a moderately better offense? With better base running too, I have this one slightly in favor of the home team and would rather target Gil specifically over the first half of the game.

BOS +104 (F5) FD 0.5u

Astros @ Braves

I have no idea who’s pitching this game for the Astros. Roster Resource has Hunter Brown, but a Houston beat writer noted he’s going Saturday. Lance McCullers Jr. and Colton Gordon would seem the only two available, but someone mentioned Gordon was pitching tonight (Thursday), so I ended up going with McCullers, who threw 30 pitches against the Blue Jays on Thursday.

Hurston Waldrep’s 1.33 ERA is incredibly impressive on the surface, but we know better. With a double digit walk rate (nine of last 47 batters faced) and only slightly above average strikeout rate, his 13.8 K-BB% projects much more average estimators. The contact inclusive ones are a bit better (4.8% Barrels/BBE, 34.6 HardHit%), but those are the least trustable numbers in a small sample.

I’m not comfortable taking Waldrep’s $9K+ price tag and control issues up against a projected lineup with an average 18.3 K% against RHP.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Diamondbacks @ Twins

Even coming off a one run quality start with seven strikeouts (one walk), the only thing Pfaadt around here is Brandon’s ERA (5.18). Contact neutral estimators are lower. Contact inclusive estimators are higher. Pitch modeling sides with the former, though they only think the cutter (8%) is strongly above average. To be fair, Pfaadt posted an 11.7 K-BB% with 13.4% Barrels/BBE and a 51.4 HardHit% over his first 15 starts and has since put up a 16.8 K-BB%, 8.7% Barrels/BBE and an 18.7 K-BB%, yet his BABIP (.346) and strand rate (65.2%) collapsed as it seemed he was pitching better. Yet, he’s also only allowed seven home runs on his last 22 barrels too.

Pablo Lopez returned from a three month layoff to post a quality start in Kansas City, despite striking out just four of 25 batters. In fact, he’s struck out just 11 of his 69 batters, but with an 11.6 SwStr%. His velocity was fine and the pitch modeling was great in his return (3.24 Bot ERA, 111 Pitching+). This will be Lopez’s first home start since late May with his last three and eight of 12 this year on the road.

The numbers had me leaning towards an over here until digging deeper into both pitchers. I do this for me as much as everyone else and suddenly I’m very interested in a cheap Pfaadt, though a more expensive Lopez might be a hold off for another start in a trickier spot.

Cardinals @ Brewers

Andre Pallante is occasionally real life useful, despite his 7.8 K-BB% because of his 60% ground ball rate, which keeps his barrels low (6.7%). He does have nine quality starts, eight with two runs or less and has struck out at least six seven times though.

Quinn Priester nearly had Pallante’s ground ball rate with nearly triple the K-BB for a couple of months, but has dropped off to 9.8% over his last eight starts (> 13.5% in three of last four though). He has continued to keep the ball on the ground (59.2%) without  a lot of hard contact though (35.7 HardHit%) during this run though.

Priester has enough upside that I’m okay with him here just below $8.5K. He’s probably not going to hurt you and Milwaukee has become a negative run environment in recent years. And if you want to punt a GPP SP2 and hope for Pallante to hit his ceiling, he only costs $5.5K, but I wouldn’t make him a staple of your lineups.

Rockies @ Padres

We’re not going to waste time with a poor pitcher with a 16.9 K% facing the Padres.

I can’t understand how Dylan Cease can continue to hold onto his 4.71 ERA with a 20 K-BB% and 39 HardHit%. Sure, it’s a few too many walks (10%) and barrels (9.2%), but he still has solid pitch modeling without an estimators reaching four. In fact, his 3.81 Bot ERA (107 Pitching+) is the worst of them. His .319 BABIP is not a career high, but 25 points above his career average and 50 points above what the San Diego defense has allowed. His 67.8 LOB% is a career low, but only 4.9 points below his career average and 1.6 points below the last two years. Twenty of his 36 barrels have left the park, so it’s kind of an everything that can go wrong has kind of scenario.

I guess there’s a positive (for us) to Cease’s failures and that is that it keeps his price tag reasonable. He’s my second favorite arm on the entire slate and maybe my favorite FanDuel value. Only one batter in the projected Colorado lineup is below a 23 K% vs RHP this year and while it may now include three LHBs it doesn’t include any good ones and Cease’s split isn’t very large this year.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Reds @ Athletics

Brady Singer seems to have found another gear with six runs over his last 30 innings in five straight quality starts. He’s posted a 20.5 K-BB% over this span and a 19.4% mark over his last 14 starts. PitchingBot believes it’s been small increases in stuff and command, though his Pitching+ numbers have barely moved and are still below average. The overall pitch modeling is also below average, while all of his non-FIP estimators exceed his 3.98 ERA, but only a 4.61 dERA by more than half a run.

Roster Resource is listing J.T. Ginn here and I can’t find anything. Our favorite thing is pitchers with a high K-BB (19.3%) and ground ball rate (52.8%), though Ginn has been victimize by 16 of his 23 barrels leaving the park (he pitches in a tough one). Pitch modeling is conflicted with PitchingBot grading him poorly and Pitching+ grading him strongly. All of Ginn’s other non-FIP estimators are more than a run below his 4.95 ERA.

Another thing we like about Ginn is the cheap price tag. We can use those numbers even in a park like this. I’m not sold yet on a more expensive Singer (especially for his price tag on FanDuel) and think I’d rather avoid him in this park.

Angels @ Mariners

Yusei Kikuchi’s estimators (4.24 xERA – 4.69 dERA) are all just a bit above his 4.18 ERA, unless you include his pitch modeling (3.81 Bot ERA, 103 Pitching+), which like his bendy pitches a bit more than the actual results. He’s been pounded for at least four runs in five of his last six with his walk rate getting out of hand again (5.6 K-BB% last five starts).

Luis Castillo’s .368 wOBA and .351 xwOBA against LHBs drops to a .314 wOBA at home and the Angels don’t really have many of those so that leaves the RHBs he’s held to a .230 wOBA with a 23.8 K-BB% at home. You include 24.8 K% or higher for eight of the nine projected batters in the LAA lineup against RHP this year and if there’s ever a spot where you’re going to consider rostering Luis Castillo, this is it.

Dodgers @ Giants

I guess the question is whether the Dodgers will dial back on Yoshi Yama after he threw a season high 112 pitches in a no-hit attempt. He did hit 110 earlier in the season. Both preceding starts and the one following lasted 88 pitches each. He has hit 100 four more times since the break and the Giants are a team they’re trying to bury. If I treat it normally (and I remember when the workload concerned me a few months back), he’s gone at least seven innings in three of his last four and struck out 10 in two straight. Now he gets a park upgrade where six of the nine projected for the Giants are above a 22 K% vs RHP this year.

Justin Verlander has found the fountain of youth, posting a 21.7 K-BB% over his last eight starts. He also hasn’t exceeded five innings in five of those starts. He threw 121 pitches in one of those five inning starts two back and in his next start…88 pitches. He’s gone from a 4.70 Bot ERA on the season to 4.47 over his last eight starts (still not great), but also a 99 Pitching+ to 105.

Yamamoto is the 4B to our earlier deGrom 4A, though I see a bit more separation between the two on DraftKings and even may have Yamamoto as my 5A to Priester’s 5B there. I do have slight concern about his pitch count here and only Skubal is more expensive. I don’t think it’s a particularly great value with that concern. A rejuvenated Verlander still at a reasonable or low cost in a great park may be some one to look at, as the Dodger offense has been more human for a while now.

We'll pick it up from here on Friday afternoon.