Tuesday 9/9 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Pirates @ Orioles

Mike Burrows has allowed two runs or less in 10 of 16 starts. Estimators ranging from a 4.00 SIERA to a 4.46 Bot ERA fall right around his 4.08 ERA.

Projecting for an ERA/FIP a bit above three and a half, Kyle Bradish has looked better than that in two starts back from Tommy John. The 13.9 SwStr% won’t support a continued 39.5 K%, but I don’t think anybody expects that. He hasn’t lost any velocity with strong pitch modeling so far.

Royals @ Guardians

Noah Cameron has walked as many as he’s struck out in four of his last six starts, dropping him to an 11.3 K-BB% on the season. He’s been throwing more cutters and fewer sliders, which might make sense that he’s allowing more contact, but it’s contact he really can’t afford, especially with only one-third of it on the ground recently. However, with a 34.3 HardHit% over this stretch, he’s been able to avoid barrels  (5.6%). Cameron still has a 5.54 SIERA and .368 xwOBA allowed over the last month.

Joey Cantillo’s 12.1 BB% and 45 HardHit% don’t appear to be a great combination, but he’s somehow managed to allow just 7.4% Barrels/BBE with a league average ground ball rate, while a 27.7 K% can erase a lot of damage. Pitch modeling really doesn’t like him, but other estimators are all pretty much in line with his 3.73 ERA with none reaching four.

We really didn’t do well with our Cleveland under on Monday. The Royals had one disaster of an inning that included a great defense playing poorly and that was that. Today, we have the struggling Noah Cameron on the mound, but I’m going back to the well again. The reasons being the same negative run environment with cooler weather (though a few degrees warmer than Monday) and neither team being able to hit LHP. And then the same as yesterday with the KC defense being near the top of the league with a strong bullpen.

Under 7.5 (-108) DK 0.5u

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Nationals @ Marlins

Running a bit later than usual tonight and this game of non-interest pays the price. 

Mets @ Phillies

Sean Manaea has allowed 24 runs over his last 27.2 innings with a 24.6 K-BB%, but 47 HardHit%. Even at that level of hard contact, this can not continue (.390 BABIP, 58.5 LOB%). I will point to his velocity being a bit down this year and some loose bodies in his elbow are probably still bothering, but he sat 92.3 mph in his most recent start, exactly his average last year, but still got beat up. A lot of his problems are coming his second time through the order.

Ranger Suarez had a six start streak with a 6.11 ERA and 11.2 K-BB%, following up a 1.23 ERA and 17.6 K-BB% over 11 starts. He then struck out double digit batters in two straight with two runs. Over his last two starts, he’s allowed a single run, despite striking out just six of 48 batters.

Tigers @ Yankees

With five one run innings against the Mets last time out, is Casey Mize finally out of the woods after 30 runs (28 earned) over his previous 35 innings. That he did this despite a 14.4 K-BB% that nearly marks his career high season mark of 14.7% this year suggests the rough patch was a lot about BABIP (.377) and strand rate (58.1%) anyway, but the 9.2% Barrels/BBE and 48.2 HardHit% were still problems none the less. The good news is that his season contact profile is right around average and his  3.74 xERA is below his 3.87 ERA. Additional estimators do reach four, but remain within one-third of a run of actual results.

Will Warren has a 9.2 K-BB% over his last 12 starts, while LHBs are up to a .350 wOBA and .365 xwOBA against him this year, an issue the Tigers may be able to exploit in this park.

This is not a strong pitching slate. Casey Mize is kind of upper-middle of the pack and costs just $7.1K on DraftKings, where he could be of some value.

Astros @ Blue Jays

While Luis Garcia certainly impressed in his return from Tommy John, striking out six of 19 batters, his velocity was down nearly 1.5 mph and it was the Angels with poor pitch modeling. He projects around four and a quarter.

Jose Berrios (unconfirmed) is allowing 11.1% Barrels/BBE with just a 20.2 K%. His now substantial reverse split (RHBs .341 wOBA, .367 xwOBA) may be a problem against the Astros

Garcia is already expensive and facing an offense that doesn’t strike out. Berrios has just one start in his last six where you would have been happy rostering him and that was in Miami.

Cubs @ Braves

Cade Horton was pulled after striking out six of 16 Braves with a no-hitter and 75 pitches last time out. That’s his high pitch count for his last four starts. While there are pretty strict constraints, Horton has allowed just four runs over his last 47 innings. Of course, there’s going to be some fortune involved (.191 BABIP, 96.7 LOB%, two home runs), but it’s also because of much improved performance (17 K-BB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE, 39.3 HardHit%).

Spencer Strider may have been lucky to get out of his last start against these Cubs with just three runs over five innings, considering he walked three with just a single strike out. In fact, the guy you knew is gone. At least this year. It’s time for us to accept it, as he’s struck out just eight of his last 88 batters faced and running a matching 4.97 ERA and 4.91 xERA. Pitch modeling and his placement on the pitch matchup ratings board below shown just how far he has fallen as well.

Let’s start with the daily fantasy considerations. Horton has been so damn good, he’s regularly going five innings even with a nearly impossible pitch count and the board is so marginal, that he’s still a top five arm for me and a reasonable value even above $8K. It’s a perfectly neutral matchup and with temperatures around 70, Atlanta should play as a neutral park.

Secondly, this line is off and I’m going to look to take advantage of it in two ways. The first is a straight up play on the Cubs, who have the better pitcher by two-thirds of a run at this point with 10+ point wRC+ edges Hm/Rd and vs RHP here. They also have one of the best defenses in the league and the top bullpen estimators over the last 30 days, while the Braves are second to last. Sure, Palencia is out and that hurts, but look at the difference in that bullpen chart. As if we needed even more, the Cubs are a much better base running team too.

Rays @ White Sox

I have found absolutely nothing to corroborate or refute Roster Resource’s suggestion that Adrian Houser may pitch this game. You know the deal. His velocity is up this year (95.1 mph) and even further with the Rays (95.8 last five starts). He still doesn’t miss bats (10 K-BB%), but keeps nearly half his contact on the ground (48.9%) and will occasionally pitch deep into games with quality starts in nine of 17 starts.

Yendrys Gomez has had three strong starts and two poor ones (14.2 K-BB%, 12.4 SwStr% as a starter). He’s somehow gained nearly a half a mph in a starting role and keeps batters guessing, throwing all of his pitches last than 30% of the time, which also makes some sense as none of them grade all that strongly.

I don’t hate taking a shot that Adrian Houser can compile a QS here for $8K on FanDuel, but wouldn’t pay more than that on DK, where Ks matter more and workload less. Gomez is also likely fine in an SP role for less than $6.5K against an offense that struggles to hit on the road.

Brewers @ Rangers

Chad Patrick is expected to get this one and for a rotation that was searching the scrap heap for arms at the beginning of the year, Patrick has pitched well enough to be a luxury in a sixth or seventh starter role. It’s three different fastballs (4S, cut, sink) with pitch modeling confliction, but the cutter the star of the show, confirmed by Pitching+ (115). Patrick doesn’t get ground balls (31%), but still has only allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE with a very solid 16.2 K-BB%.

Three straight quality starts for Jake Leiter and while he’s walked five of 47 after his first double digit strikeout game with no walks, he still has an elite 28.6 K-BB% over this stretch. His Bot Cmd is up to 55 (45 season) and Pitching+ up to 104 (90 season) as well. He’s getting a few more swings and misses, tightening up his arsenal (45.7% fastball, 23.2% changeup last three).

I like Patrick at a reasonable price against a depleted lineup here. In fact, he may be my favorite DraftKings value for less than $8K. The only caveat is that the Rangers opened the roof on Monday and it’s not expected to be that hot on Tuesday either. The open roof takes the average run environment from 94 to 104 via Statcast (three year) rolling. The question is if we can finally trust Leiter. In GPPs, you certainly take a shot or two if you’re playing a lot of lineups. I don’t love this matchup for him, but don’t hate the $7.5K price on DraftKings on this slate either.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Twins @ Angels

Zebby Matthews has now posted two straight quality starts for the first time this year. Part of that is the Twins loosening up and regularly letting him thrown 85-95 pitches. While we still have some concerns about part of the contact profile (34.9 GB%, 10.2% Barrels/BBE), the 19.5 K-BB% sets him up for contact neutral estimators more than a run below his 4.73 ERA and even the xERA is half a run less (4.21). Matthews has some of the best pitch modeling on the slate. PitchingBot loves nearly everything he throws and he throws six pitches, but none except his fastball more than 15.5% of the time.

Kyle Hendricks has more walks (12) than strikeouts (11) over his last five starts.

While the Angels make almost every pitcher rosterable, and undervalued pitcher like Matthews jumps into the top three on this slate. Rengifo is the only hitter they regularly play below a 24.5 K% vs RHP and there’s lack of LHBs plays even more into Zebby’s strength with his 50-60 point split. He’s also one of my favorite values on the board and right now, I really like a Patrick/Matthews lineup because of the two last names that are first names. No, because they’re reasonably affordable and undervalued in terms of K-BB.

Reds @ Padres

After a great first start for the Reds, the regression monster has finally found and devoured Zack Littell with 18 runs (16 earned) over his last 25 innings.

Michael King makes his second return from the IL this season. His first lasted 11 batters almost exactly a month ago and I don’t see any rehab games in his fangraphs log.

Are we interested in a guy with a 17.2 K% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE against the Padres? No. And King costs more than $9K in his second  return from the IL with potential workload limitations.

Cardinals @ Mariners

His results weren’t there until his last start (his only home start in his last four), but Matthew Liberatore is showing some signs of life with a 16.3 K-BB% over his last four starts, pushing back up towards league average (12.6%) on the season. After a strong start to his season, Liberatore locked down a rotation spot before hitting a swoon that had been nearly bad enough to evict him. The Cardinals had been limiting his starts to more than 85 pitches in just one of his last nine.

Oh, boy. Does it matter that both of George Kirby’s seven run starts came in non-major league parks? Or does just the fact that I said he has had two seven run starts in his last four a large concern? He’s had just an 8.2 K-BB% over his last four, including 0.0% against the A’s in his only home start of this stretch, but did go 21.6% in Cleveland. Kirby’s 17.7 K-BB% is still strong, but below the 20.1% to 20.5% range he’s been in for every year of his major league career. His 43.4 HardHit% is also a career worst. Maybe the late start due to injury has taken it’s toll. His 15.8 K-BB% in Seattle is five points below his career average at home.

I’m certainly not saying that George Kirby is no longer a quality pitcher. Most pitchers would love to have his down year and he’s still a top five pitcher on this slate. As to the value in his top of the board $10K price tag…I like it a bit better on FanDuel. For less than $7.5K, well you still need a QS on FD, but for less than $6.5K, I don’t mind Liberatore in your SP2 spot in this park.

I also think there’s a slight bit of value in the Cardinals, who just got Burleson back from the IL (bigger than you might think, look at his numbers). Their only edges are base running and defense, but Liberatore has been the better pitcher by SIERA and xwOBA over the last month. It’s just a bit high.

STL +178 (DK) 0.5u

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Diamondbacks @ Giants

Zac Gallen hasn’t allowed a run in two straight starts, striking out 13 of 46 batters, but if you go back 12 starts now, Gallen has a 17.6 K-BB% with just 4.8% Barrels/BBE and a 3.42 ERA matching a 3.45 xFIP. I was skeptical that he was back at the start of this run and there were still a few bad outings to come (16 runs in 17 innings at one point early in this stretch), but with quality starts in five of six and continued solid peripherals, it’s time to stop denying (though I still wonder what his free agency will look like with a draft pick attached).

Robbie Ray struck out eight at Coors last time out with his velo bumping back to 94.5 mph (93.5 season, 91.8 in two recent starts). He allowed four runs, but with only four hard hit batted balls and one walk after walking seven of his previous seven of his previous 45 and a hard hit rate above 45% in four of his previous five. In other words, he’s all over the place, like he was earlier in his career with the Diamondbacks, but still has upside, especially in this park.

Gallen’s not cheap and hasn’t been showing elite upside, while pitching better, against a hot team. The Giants are as good as their recent success, but are now back up to a 107 wRC+ vs RHP. And while Ray does have upside in a great park, as just mentioned, I don’t want to pay $9.5K for him in a marginal spot.

Further, I have these pitchers nearly dead even and while the Giants have offensive and bullpen edges, the Diamondbacks have very large defensive and base running edges. I have the Giants barely favored here and think there’s slight value in the road team.

ARI +126 (FD) 0.5u

Red Sox @ Athletics

The Red Sox have tried to alter Dustin May and it looked okay for a few starts, he gained some velocity back, but now It’s dropped back down again as he’s allowed 13 runs (12 earned) over his last 12.2 innings with four home runs on six barrels and a 0.0 K-BB%.

Jeffrey Springs’ continued ability to manage contact (37.6 HardHit%) has allowed him to run a 4.14 ERA that’s much closer to his 4.24 xERA than additional estimators with an 11.8 K-BB%. He has allowed 12 runs over his last 13.2 home innings after six straight quality starts at home.

We don’t love the park or the upside, but Springs could be a cheap QS against a marginal Boston lineup where six of the first seven projected batters exceed a 23.5 K% vs LHP.

Rockies @ Dodgers

It’s a shame where German Marquez’s career has gone.

Psst…for all the Dodgers’ trouble over the last month, Emmett Sheehan has a 23 K-BB% over his last five starts. I mean, the 15.5% Barrels/BBE and 49.3 HardHit% with a 36.6 GB% that come along are just YIKES, but he’s kind of made it work with just 13 runs (11 earned) over 27.2 innings. I don’t like his chance of continuing to make that contact profile work, but I’m much more excited about the K-BB than I am worried about the hard contact. Also, he gets the Rockies at Dodger Stadium.

The good news, Sheehan is my top pitcher on the board and maybe my favorite value on FD for $8.9K. He’s $100 more on DraftKings and still a solid value, but I may still rather the cheaper Patrick/Matthews combo. It’ll be an interesting choice this afternoon.

We’ll pick up from here with added daily fantasy notes on Tuesday.