Monday 9/8 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Royals @ Guardians

Before his start last Wednesday against the Angels…

I wondered for a brief moment if the Royals had unlocked something in Ryan Bergert after he struck out out 15 of 46 batters in this second and third start for them. He’s struck out a total of 10 batters over his other three starts for them with the White Sox and Twins being those strong efforts. They have upped his slider and dropped his fastball about five percentage points each. They’re both still the two pitches he throws most often (more than 75% of the time) with a 1.5 point increase in SwStr% since the trade. The grades on both pitches ( > 60 Pitching Bot, 122 Pitching+ on the slider) have improved to around elite since the trade too.

Bergert struck out six Angels, which really isn’t a disappointment because he only faced 19 of them. The disappointment is in the 87 pitches and three walks he took to do so. He did only allow one run over five innings, but as his hard hit rate dropped to 37.6%, his ground ball rate dropped below 30%. Bergert’s reverse split is a benefit here.

Slade Cecconi’s 14.3 K-BB% is fine, especially the 21.1 K% without a walk over his last three starts. The 13.1% Barrels/BBE and 50.9 HardHit% are clearly not fine. That’s the difference between a league average 4.18 SIERA and an awful 5.71 xERA.

Cleveland is a negative run environment and with the weather expected to be in the low 60s by mid-game, it could take a bit of sting out of the contact, which helps both pitchers with Bergert being fly ball prone and Cecconi being hard contact prone. Then you have the offenses (look above), a top five defense in the Royals, a strong projected defense for the Guardians and two top half of the league bullpens over the last month (Royals top quarter).

Under 8.5 (-120) FD 1.2u

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Nationals @ Marlins

Cade Cavalli has been pretty inconsistent from a results standpoint, but you can’t complain about a 14.8 K-BB% with fewer barrels (five) than home runs (six) through six starts. And there you have why his 4.85 ERA is well above his non-FIP estimators. Pitch modeling is a bit conflicted, mostly on the curveball. Contact neutral estimators are just below four.

Jansen Junk missed only two weeks with an elbow issue and even snuck in a rehab start, striking out seven of 18 batters, which he’s only done once in the majors this year. After a hot start, he’s allowed at least three runs in seven straight starts (5.97 ERA) with just a 3.8 BB%. Pitch modeling certainly doesn’t think his arsenal is “junk”.

Mets @ Phillies

The Mets are coming off back to back losses in Cincinnati, in which Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat each allowed three hits. Rather than read about me gushing over Nolan McLean again, read someone else do it here. (This is seriously good stuff.) He faced his first major league adversity, when the Tigers scored two early runs against him. Those were the only runs they scored in another great outing.

Brady Singer and Hunter Greene made few mistakes against the Mets, who have been pounding seemingly every mistake for over a month now. Aaron Nola’s season has seemingly been one mistake after another. He’s allowed at least four runs in eight of 13 starts. There’s some positive regression coming in a number of areas, but his 16 K-BB% is his lowest since his rookie year and both 8.7% Barrels/BBE and a 42 HardHit% are career worsts.

Cubs @ Braves

Shota Imanaga struck out just two Braves in his last start and despite six straight quality starts with a 2.93 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.08 xFIP, he’s struck out just 18 of his last 99 batters with and has allowed five barrels in his last two starts. That puts him in double digits for the year (10.4%) with a 15.5 K-BB%. Previous to this stretch, he had three straight starts with a K-BB above 33%. His pitch modeling is down on everything except his slider via Pitching+ over his last two, surprisingly the only pitch he’s increased during this period. Imanaga had a .264 BABIP last year, so the fly ball tendencies can keep it below most pitchers, but his .208 mark this year with an 85.9 LOB% are keeping his 3.15 ERA at least half a run below all estimators and well more than a run above contact neutral ones.

A total of four runs (three earned) over 20 innings and three straight quality starts for Bryce Elder. His velocity is up more than half a mph over this three start stretch, while he really hasn’t improved his bat missing prowess (8.6 SwStr%), but is missing the barrel a lot more (three barrels, 36.4 HardHit%).

Imanaga is maybe the fifth best arm on the slate and could be an okay value for around $9K, a bit better value on FanDuel, as he has been pitching deep into games. Maybe Elder’s turnaround is real, but he’s not really striking out more batters and is in a tough spot here.  

Brewers @ Rangers

Jose Quintana has walked seven of his last 49 batters with nine runs over his last 10 innings. Shocking that 7.2 K-BB%, 9.2% Barrels/BBE and 42 HardHit% is finally coming back to bite him. He now has the same ERA last year, but worse estimators.

Jacob Latz stretched out to 5.1 innings and 22 batters last time out, but only because he only struck out one batter on 71 pitches.

Latz costs just $6.4K on FanDuel, but probably isn’t pitching six innings and even then appears to have limited upside.

Twins @ Angels

SWR struck out seven of 21 White Sox last time out. He also walked three and three scored. Over his last four starts, he’s allowed 14.6% Barrels/BBE with a 50 HardHit%.

Twenty-one year old Caden Dana is a solid pitching prospect (50 FV Fangraphs) with just a 10..5 K-BB% over 82 AAA innings, who hasn’t really impressed at the major league level yet (5.1 K-BB%, 21.1 IP).

Reds @ Padres

Nick Lodolo returned from more than three weeks on the IL to face only 21 batters in 4.2 innings, allowing four runs, but striking out six Dodgers with just a walk and one barrel. His next start was skipped due to illness, which means it’s been about 10 days. While Lodolo’s strikeout rate (23.8%) is a career low, his walk rate is also a career best (4.6%). However, he has a 26.8 K-BB% over his last eight starts and has a 13.1 SwStr% over his last 11. Lodolo’s 3.22 ERA is just slightly below estimators around three and a half (3.51 dERA to 3.71 xFIP), the exception being some very ordinary pitch modeling.

It looked like for a few starts that Yu Darvish might have been finding himself, but now he’s allowed four runs in just four innings three times  over his last four starts. His K-BB (17.6%) and hard hit rate (32.6%) are fine over this span, but he’s allowed five barrels (10.9%) and five home runs on them. That works out to a 22.7 HR/FB. He has a 21.6 K-BB% over his last seven starts. This is all looking a bit fluky and then you realize he’s faced the Dodgers twice over in his last four, but one of those was his lone good start. There’s nearly a two run difference between his 5.75 ERA and 3.64 xERA on the year. Additional non-FIP estimators are about half a run higher.

While I believe Darvish has been much better than his results, I still think Lodolo is about half a run better right now. The Padres aren’t doing much (if any) platooning these days and have just a 93 wRC+ vs LHP, which makes these offenses very comparable. The Padres have an elite bullpen in name, only eighth best by estimators over the last 30 days, still far better than the Reds, but Cincinnati has the better base running and defense. I have this one about even.

CIN +120 (FD) 0.5u

For daily fantasy purposes, I have Lodolo slightly behind Imanaga, at a slightly lower price and similar value. Just the sixth best arm on the slate because the Padres don’t strike out. Darvish’s workload is a bit of a concern. His last start was his longest of the season (87 pitches) with 69 and 74 the two before that.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Cardinals @ Mariners

Miles Mikolas failed to strike out any of the 23 A’s he faced last time out (in St Louis) and has no more than one strikeout in five of his last eight starts (9.9 K%).

After completing six innings in each of his first 25 starts, Bryan Woo missed by a single out in his 26^th and an entire inning in his 27^th. With a 3.02 ERA, he would seem a Cy Young contender with that workload, but even with a 20.1 K-BB%, his mid-three estimators are more very good than great because of some minor issues in his contact profile (8.6% Barrels/BBE, 41.6 HardHit%). It is odd that his 3.15 xERA is his best estimator then. Its’ Seattle. Just grip and rip, right?

What’s troubling me about Woo is the bottom of the league Seattle defense behind him, which makes an ERA below his estimators and a .241 BABIP even more amazing, but I guess the park does have a bit to do with that too. It’s not a bad matchup. A banged up St Louis offenses has ben scuffling, but would it shock you to know Woo doesn’t have a double digit strikeout effort this year (nine four times). He’s the second most expensive pitcher on the board and about my fourth best arm. Not a great value, though this projected Cardinal lineup has a few more strikeouts than usual. Mikolas is the second cheapest arm on the slate (the cheapest is facing the Dodgers) in the best pitching environment, but I’m not even sure that can help  him.

Diamondbacks @ Giants

Nabil Crismatt has only struck out 14 of 98 batters with a 10.3 SwStr% that’s league average, but has also shrunk with every outing. He does have a masterful small sample size contact profile though (48.5 GB%, two barrels, 21.7 HardHit%) and that 3.24 xERA is why he’s popping more than he should on my pitching board. Well, that, a quality defense and framing and a significant park upgrade.

Logan Webb’s 21 K-BB% is a career high, while sustaining more than half his contact on the ground (53.5%) with a career high 8% Barrels/BBE (still better than league average) with a three year low in hard hit rate (41.1%). The 11.9% Barrels/BBE over his last 13 starts is a bit concerning, but none at Coors last time out. Webb has upped his changeup usage to 29.7% over his last eight starts (23.7% season), though his sinker, slider and changeup are all very strongly graded pitches.

Webb is my top pitcher on the board and one of my favorite values. It’s not an easy spot, but he has an elite K-BB% and GB% in a great park with several elevated strikeout rates once you get past Perdomo and Marte. That said, I think Crismatt is fine too for $6.2K on DraftKing. The Giants are hitting over their heads right now. This lineup isn’t THAT good. In fact, considering the massive fielding and base running gaps in favor of the Diamondbacks, I’m almost of the mind that this line (+160) is too high, but I just don’t trust that bullpen and the F5 line (+140) isn’t as attractive.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Red Sox @ Athletics

I guess the good news is that Garrett Crochet hasn’t walked a batter in two starts. He struck out just four Guardians last time out. Even more alarming, he allowed four home runs. To the Guardians and their sub-80 wRC+ vs LHP. Just three barrels, bus that’s still 13.6% of his contact with a 45.5 HardHit%. I don’t think I’m going to get nuts about one bad start and only his third sub-20 K-BB% in 20 starts (27% over that span). He’s your AL Cy Young runner up with estimators only as high as a 3.16 Bot ERA.

So Luis Morales is running up the strikeout ladder with four, five, six, seven, eight in consecutive starts. His overall 9.3 SwStr% doesn’t really support the 27 K% (though that’s been rising too). The real problem is that he’s allowed seven barrels with a 50 HardHit% over his last three. Non-FIP estimators range from a 3.62 Bot ERA to a 4.49 dERA.

I’m not really sure what to make of Morales yet (adding he’s been in a few solid road spots) and have to let some numbers even out, but I don’t have to figure that out here. The price tag and park take him out of contention. The park is also why Crochet is my second favorite pitcher tonight, but considering it probably won’t be as warm as usual in Sacramento, perhaps he’s my 1B to Webb. About the same price on FanDuel, he’s also one of my favorite values there, but at $11K, it’s a bit more questionable on DK.

Rockies @ Dodgers

Chase Dollander has allowed just one run in each of his last two road starts (Houston, St Louis). Of course, he’s also walked seven of 46 in those two starts (12 Ks) and six of his last eight starts have been at home. When your 11.9% Barrels/BBE is 50% higher than  your 7.1 K-BB%...

Roster Resource is listing Tyler Glasnow, who was scratched Friday due to illness. I can’t find anything else via Twitter. He’s been unremarkable, with a .221 BABIP and 79.7 LOB% propping up a 3.41 ERA His 17.6 K-BB% is his worst since Pittsburgh, though his 37.8 HardHit% is his lowest since the pandemic (still with 9.1% Barrels/BBE).

On the one hand, it’s the Rockies away from Coors. On the other, we could see a limited Glasnow at a high price (or someone else completely) and who knows which catcher he’s pitching to (they’re both hurt). I’m not going to sweat this today. We have several strong pitching options on a small slate. It’s just that not many of them are popping value wise with high price tags. This is probably not the spot to test any Dollander road theories.