Friday 9/5 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Nationals @ Cubs

Jake Irvin’s 5.42 ERA is less than two-thirds of a run above his best estimator. He has a 3.3 K-BB% over her last 12 starts.

Javier Assad…and we move on.

Temperatures are projected in the lower 60s in this game. The high total makes me suspect the wind may be blowing out. If not, we may have to come back to it, despite the pitchers.

Mets @ Reds

Eighteen of the 21 runs David Peterson has allowed over his last five starts came in three starts, all at home. On the road, he held the Nationals and Braves to three runs over 13.2 innings, striking out 18 of 53. Facing all divisional opponents, he’s walked 13 of his last 90 batters. Peterson’s 3.61 ERA is still below all non-FIP estimators, ranging as high as a 4.45 Bot ERA.

With a 64.6 LOB% over his last five starts, Andrew Abbott has dropped down to 80.1% on the season. A strong contact manager (33 HardHit%) with a 15.2 K-BB% projects a 3.50 xERA and really helps in that park, though contact neutral estimators are above four with just a 31.2 GB%.

White Sox @ Tigers

Since hitting a six start mid-season swoon (26 runs in 22.2 innings with a 6.4 K-BB%), Shane Smith seem rejuvenated over his last five starts (eight runs in 29.1 innings with a 15.7 K-BB%). You don’t usually see Rule V guys get thrown right into the rotation, so from that standpoint, sticking around all year with estimators below four and a half (4.25 xERA to 4.49 xFIP) is quite the achievement, even if his 3.81 ERA is leaning on a .248 BABIP and 13.6% unearned run rate. Back to that rejuvenation, Smith’s velocity is up half a mph (96), while leaning more into sinkers (20.8%) at the expensive of sliders (4%) and changeups (13.8%). Yet, his ground ball rate (37.2%) has actually decreased during this stretch.

Jack Flaherty has allowed a single run and eight runs over his last two starts. Both against Kansas City. In the previous five, he allowed zero, one, five, six and one. Everything is in flux, runs, strikeouts, everything except walks. He has a 4.3 BB% over his last five after a 12.2 BB% in his previous 10 starts.

Brewers @ Pirates

After running a 22.7 K-BB% and 55.2 GB% over seven starts (45.2 HardHit%), Quinn Priester has run a 61.2 GB%, but 7.2 K-BB% over his last six (34.6 HardHit%).  He had six quality starts during the first stretch, but just two during the second. But pitch to contact.

Johan Oviedo has struck out 31.7% through four starts with just 5.9% Barrels/BBE and a 35.3 HardHit%, but has also walked 12.7% with a 29.4 GB%. It’s such an interesting small sample profile with a 17.6 IFFB% and 73.8 Z-Contact%. That last number is probably the quickest stabilizer of the numbers mentioned here.

Dodgers @ Orioles

It’s been a tough schedule, striking out 16 of 44 Blue Jays and Padres, before striking out just nine of 44 Padres and Diamondbacks over his last two starts, but there really hasn’t been any consistency to Tyler Glasnow’s season. He’s walked at least four in three of his last six starts and has a 17.6 K-BB% that’s his worst since Pittsburgh. His velocity is down around half a mph (also his lowest since Pittsburgh), though his league average contact profile is right in line with career norms. I don’t know what the Dodgers’ plan is here. Over his last nine starts, Glasnow has just one pitch count in the 90s, but three reaching 100 or more. Most often, he’s in the mid-80s.

Dean Kremer has allowed 14 runs over his last eight innings, striking out just five of 42 Astros and Giants with three home runs on seven barrels (20.6%). Prior to that, he allowed one run over 15 innings to the Astros and Mariners, striking out 13 of 51 batters with two walks, one barrel and a 30.6 HardHit%. Overall, everything is near average, but good luck guessing which guy you’re going to get on start to start basis, though he’ll probably surprise everyone and thrive here.

Here starts the main daily fantasy slate, so I guess we’ll start there. Either of these pitchers could go either way and of course Glasnow has the better matchup, but he’s also $2.4K more than Kremer (on DK, wouldn't touch Kremer for more than $8K on FD) with some sketchy workload management. I’m fine with taking shots with either pitcher here, The Dodgers came into Thursday night’s loss to Skenes with a 100 wRC+ on the road and 79 over the last week.

I’ll use those numbers again to note Baltimore’s 111 wRC+ at home this year and 135 wRC+ over the last week. With less than half a run separating the starting pitchers’ estimators this year and the Dodgers coming off a sweep in Pittsburgh, I think this one is a bit high. I don’t understand why DraftKings has this game off the board. Both pitchers were confirmed fairly early, but it seems they’re offering very few games for Friday at this point.

BAL +138 1u FD

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Blue Jays @ Yankees

Kevin Gausman has a 20.5 K-BB% over his last 10 starts, bringing him up to 17.7% on the year. His 3.38 Bot ERA and 4.05 dERA are his only estimators more than 0.11 runs remove from a 3.75 ERA. Every start hasn’t been a hit (four runs three times, five or fewer strikeouts four times during this stretch), but it’s an overall strong performance over a not so small sample size and includes a seven inning, eight strikeout, one run effort against the Yankees.

It’s a shame we don’t play pitchers against the Blue Jays (proj. LU avg 16.6 K% vs RHP) because Cam Schlittler looks like he’s put it together with exactly eight strikeouts in three straight starts, allowing one run over 18.2 innings, but against the White Sox, Nationals and Rays and he’s not cheap.

I like a reasonably priced Gausman here (less than $9K). He’s my third overall pitcher, far behind the top two, but decently ahead of the next few. DraftKings doesn't have a line on this game either. 

Phillies @ Marlins

I don’t know what more than Phillies could ask of Cristopher Sanchez. He’s reached a 20.3 K-BB% with an elite 57 GB%, allowing just 5.6% Barrels/BBE and regularly going almost three full times through the lineup. I don’t think he’s faced fewer than 25 batters in a start since the All-Star break.

Valente Bellozo must like a spicy meatball because he serves up a lot of them (9.8% Barrels/BBE). And with just a 15.8 K% (8.4 K-BB%), that’s a lot of meatballs. He hasn’t started a game since early May, but did face 19 batters in his latest rehab outing. Even with most of his work out of the bullpen, Bellozo doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below four and a half. Only eight of his 23 barrels have left the park.

Facing an offense with a 76 wRC+ and a projected lineup that averages a 25.8 K% vs southpaws, Sanchez is my number two pitcher and one of my favorite values within $300 of $10K on either site. I also like the Phillies to score some runs here. The Marlins back Bellozo with a bullpen with the second worst estimators in the league over the last 30 days, including several position player appearances recently, it’s gotten so bad. Draftkings is not yet offering a line on this one either. 

PHI o4.5 (-136) FD 1u

Mariners @ Braves

Logan Gilbert has surrounded a disastrous start in Philadelphia with four strong ones. Though he’s not consistently going six innings (30% of starts), he’s been far better than his 3.73 ERA while in there (28 K-BB%). In fact, 16 of his 22 barrels have left the yard, but aside from some pretty strong pitch modeling (3.60 Bot ERA, 120 Pitching+), he doesn’t have another non-FIP estimator above three.

Chris Sale returned from a two and a half month IL stint, firing fastballs 94.8 mph (94.9 season) and struck out nine of 21 Phillies. He doesn’t have the workload to win another Cy Young, but his 24.6 K-BB% is fourth in the majors among pitchers with at least 90 innings (Gilbert is #2). To that, Sale adds his always strong contact profile (32.5 HardHit%). The only thing that doesn’t make sense is his 103 Pitching+ and 93 grade fastball, though the pitch is actually pretty unproductive by run value too (-0.6 wFB/C).

A few things to cover here and some of them conflicting. Chris Sale is my top pitcher for Friday and also perhaps my favorite value, even as the most expensive pitcher on the board. Although they strike out more at home, each of the first four in the usual Seattle lineup against LHP exceeds a 24 K% against them this year. Gilbert is tied for my fourth best arm on Friday, but at a similar price, his value is crushed by workload and lower strikeout lineup. Five in the projected Atlanta lineup are between a 23 and 24.2 K% vs RHP, but the other four are all below 19%.

It probably makes sense that I see a low scoring game through five here, but I’m also seeing slight value on the road dog here. While I have Sale the slightly better pitcher here, Seattle’s small offensive edge squashes the difference, while their pen estimators are two-thirds of a run better over the last 30 days. Key because of what I mentioned about Gilbert’s workload and Sale throwing just 78 pitches in his first start back. I think both could go six, but neither probably more.

Under 3.5 (F5) (+114) DK 0.5u
SEA +118 DK 0.5u

Guardians @ Rays

Gavin Williams has had some very strong starts this year, but he’s also had a lot of bad ones. Heck, we could say that about the last month with two starts where he hasn’t gotten out of the fourth inning and two where he’s thrown at least seven innings with one run. His average game velocities have been all over the place as well. He mixes up his pitch usage each game and that’s not necessarily a bad thing, but the overall package is a below average 11.6 K-BB% with a league average 8.8% Barrels/BBE and 42.6 HardHit%. His 3.26 ERA is the product of a .251 BABIP and 80.6 LOB% more so than the things he is in most control of. His best estimator is a 3.99 dERA.

Ian Seymour has pitched well out of the pen and even though the Nats got him for four in five innings last time out, he’s struck out eight in each of his two starts with a single walk. Over 33.1 innings, Seymour has a 23.7 K-BB% (14.1 Swstr%) without any fastball velocity decline as a starter and has only allowed a total of three barrels. It looks like Tampa Bay may have developed another pitcher, though pitch modeling is a bit skeptical.

I can take Seymour’s numbers with a grain of salt in a small sample size, but I still don’t believe Gavin Williams is an above average pitcher this year. This game also puts the Guardians in their worse split again and you can add that 78 wRC+ against LHP to their 81 wRC+ on the road. I’ll mention again, as I have several times over the last week while siding with the Rays, that they’ve had the best rolling 30 day bullpen estimators in the majors for quite a while now. If the Rays weren’t large enough favorites on Thursday night, I have them as even larger favorites on Friday, though the price is actually lower. On a daily fantasy note, the thing I might consider is Seymour on FanDuel for less than $8K. Over 80 pitches last time out, he could get to six in a solid spot here. I don’t like him as much for $400 more on DraftKings.

TBR -126 FD 1u

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Twins @ Royals

It’s been almost exactly three months since Pablo Lopez (expected, but not official) made his last major league start. Through 11 starts, he posted his usually solid 19 K-BB% with estimators around three and a half. He did work his way back to a full workload in four rehab starts, striking out 18 of 65 AAA batters with two walks.

Michael Wacha’s 3.52 ERA matches his FIP (3.60) with just 13 of his 36 barrels leaving the yard. It is a power suppressing park, so I’ll give him a bit of a break on contact neutral estimators in the mid-fours and suggest his xERA and pitch modeling around four might be more accurate. He’s been a solid contact manage for several years now and his 33.8 HardHit% this year is no different, but his 17.8 K% is the lowest of his career.

Lopez is too expensive in his first game back against a Kansas City lineup without many strikeouts (proj. LU avg 16.7% vs RHP). Wacha may be too cheap at home against not an easy, but a more strikeout prone (22.8% avg proj. LU) matchup. He’s one of several usable DK SP2s for less than $7K. It all depends on your risk tolerance and whether you’re looking more floor or ceiling. We could come back to his one once Lopez is confirmed. 

Astros @ Rangers

This was supposed to be SpAghetti, who must have had some bad spaghetti. The Astros aren’t announcing a replacement until later, but Hunter Brown would be on normal rest. Six straight quality starts with two earned or less, but four unearned in one and a 14.3 K-BB% that’s more pedestrian than his 21% mark on the season. It’s a park upgrade to a negative run environment with the roof closed and the Texas lineup is a bit depleted, but they’ve filled in with guys that don’t strike out much (proj. LU avg 18.5 K% vs RHP).

Merrill Kelly has a 3.31 ERA in six starts for the Ranges, but with just a 14.2 K-BB% and a stunning 13.5% Barrels/BBE. His velo is down more than half a mph since the trade.

I’m not interested in either of these pitchers. Even if it is Brown, he doesn’t crack my top five here with more average recent performance and he costs more than $10K in a moderate at best, upside matchup.

Giants @ Cardinals

I see more…Seymour? Carson this time. His numbers through 24.2 innings, including just one three inning start, make me want to see less of him than Ian. (16 barrrels, 18 strikeouts, 11 walks).

Mike McGreevy followed up a career high seven strikeouts (first time with more than five) by striking out NONE of the 25 Reds he faced last time out. He has a 14.3 K%. The only attraction is a 3.9 BB%, which has allowed him to go six innings in six straight starts. He also has a slightly better than average contact profile.

McGreevy could give you six innings for less than $6K. That’s about the best I can say. The Giants are one of the hottest offenses in the league, but are also just coming out of Coors to a neutral park with temperatures expected to be around 60.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Padres @ Rockies

Nick Pivetta (unconfirmed) has excelled at Petco and snapped an eight game streak of starts of at least six innings last time out, allowing more than two earned runs just once over his last 12 starts. He’s perceived to be having a career year, but his 20.1 K-BB%, which still elite, is more than two points below each of the last two years with the same amount of barrels (10.9%) and his highest hard hit rate (44%) in three years. The park (9.1 HR/FB is more than three points below his previous career low) and defense (.226 BABIP) are really doing it for him and the latter is completely unsustainable. Heck, the San Diego defense only grades as average on Statcast.

Kyle Freeland began his last start by surrendering a hit and then a home run and then decided to get himself ejected. I may as well just repost my analysis from two days ago.

Kyle Freeland’s last home start was two runs in four innings, striking out five Dodgers with a single walk. Three of his previous four starts were questionable quality starts with less than impressive peripherals. He hasn’t been good at home (9.1 K-BB%, .394 wOBA allowed).

We don’t fear Coors because the Rockies stink, but it’s still not the best park to pitch in. Pivetta is only my sixth best pitcher on Friday night and costs more than $9K, not one of my favorite values on this slate. Freeland’s only positive is a $5K price tag on DraftKings, so maybe he lucks into 10 points, but you’re putting team that doesn’t strike out much in Coors.

Athletics @ Angels

Twenty-four year old Mason Barnett is a 45 Future Value prospect, according to Fangraphs, but posted just a 10.8 K-BB% in 119 AAA innings before getting the call and not impressing against the Rangers in his debut. It was in Sacramento, but he struck out a single batter with five ground balls and two barrels. Five of the 20 batters he faced scored. He struck out three of 24 in his last AAA start. Projections are near five. 

Jose Soriano has allowed two runs or less with five strikeouts or more in in six of his last eight starts. Of course, he allowed 12 runs in the other two starts, but his 24.1 K% over this stretch has pushed him up to league average (21.2%) on the season. Include the 66.2 GB% that takes care of some walks (10%). If you’re willing to eat a blowup every now and then (9.2% Barrels/BBE, 52.7 HardHit% during this stretch), Soriano may be a more marketable pitcher if he maintains the strikeout uptick, though we’ve seen signs of this before that didn’t last.

Not my favorite value on the slate, but potentially a decent one. Soriano is cheap enough to take a shot with if you can embrace the volatility in not only his arm, but he A’s lineup. The projected lineup averages a 23.3 K%, but .203 ISO vs RHP, though some of that is due to Sacramento park effects. Barnett is very cheap and the Angels strike out more than any other team, but also have some pop. I don’t know.

Red Sox @ Diamondbacks

You got to love creative parents because now the Diamondbacks are going to have to Pay the Tolle! No doubt, he impressed in his debut, though his 96.2 mph was 0.7 mph better than he averaged at AAA. The adrenaline might be a bit less here. Tolle is a well regarded prospect (50 FV), who just started in professional ball this year and blew through A+ (31.6 K-BB%), AA (30.3%) and AAA (25.4%) with just 42 innings above A ball before making his debut in which he struck out eight of 21 Pirates (16.7 SwStr%). He generated just three ground balls, but also just three hard hit batted balls. A bit of a tougher matchup here in a similar run environment.

Six shoutout innings against the Dodgers with four hits, walks and strikeouts each for Eduardo Rodriguez last time out. You gotta embrace the volatility here. He has just a 12 K-BB%, but has popped nine or more strikeouts four times, but only a quarter of his starts have been quality starts (all two runs or less). He’s also allowed at least five runs six times and struck out fewer than four in one-third of his starts. All of his estimators are more than half a run below his 5.40 ERA, the best of them a 4.28 xERA with a 34 HardHit%.

Tolle is an expensive pitcher already after a great debut. Maybe too expensive for this spot. He projects as an average pitcher (which is actually pretty strong for a rookie). I’m not sure he could do better than he did first time out. ERod could go either way and you could take advantage of that for $6.3K on DK, if you have the stomach for it, but I’m considering the over here. I just don’t like the elevated price on 8.5 and may end up going with just a Boston over. We’ll see if it changes overnight.

We’ll pick up from here in the afternoon with extended DFS notes.