Thursday 9/4 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Phillies @ Brewers

Ranger Suarez allowed seven runs in his first start of the season, then just 11 (10 earned) over his next 73.1 innings with a 17.6 K-BB%. Suarez then hit a wall, which lasted six starts. He allowed 24 runs in just 35.1 innings with an 11.2 K-BB% and 38.1 GB%. It seems he’s righted the ship again with just three runs over his last 18.2 innings with a 30.6 K-BB%. However, after double digit strikeouts without a walk in the first two of those starts, Suarez struck out just a pair of Braves last time out.

Freddy Peralta has gone four straight starts (23 IP) without allowing a run. We know that there are certainly things unsustainable about that, but we’re not joyless heathens. He’s been very streaky with his K-BB, but is at 20.3% over his last 14 starts and 17.2% on the season. While Peralta has allowed a near average rate of barrels (8.4%) with a low ground ball rate (37.7%), he’s really excelled in contact management overall with just a 32.4 HardHit%, projecting a 3.40 xERA that’s more than three-quarters of a run above his actual ERA (2.58), but around half a run below all other non-FIP estimators. Peralta is carrying a ridiculous 85.1 LOB% around 10 points above his career rate.

Dodgers @ Pirates

Blake Snell has now started seven games for the Dodgers and 26 of his 38 strikeouts have come in just three of them. However, he does have a 21.4 K-BB% in five starts back from the IL, which includes three starts with a single digit walk rate. I am a bit concerned that already half a mph below last year, Snell dropped down to 93.7 mph last time out (1.5 mph below his season average and 2.2 mph below last year). However, he generated a season high 18.6 SwStr% against Atlanta in that start as well. Interesting to note that Snell has also been one of the best contact managers in the league, as he’s been his entire career (33.5 HardHIt%). He’s down to less than one-third of his contact allowed (32.4%) being hit hard.

Paul Skenes has allowed a total of three runs in six quality starts over his last eight outings. He allowed four runs each in outings in Milwaukee and Colorado as well. The July conservation effort is long gone, as he’s thrown at least 93 pitches in seven straight starts. His 22.8 K-BB% is fifth best in baseball, but second best only to the injured Wheeler in the Nationals League. Skenes’ pitch modeling blows every other competitor on Thursday out of the park and those are the worst estimators he’s put up. It would be surprising at this point, if he does not win the Cy Young, even if the 2.08 ERA has some unsustainable aspects to it. 

Guardians @ Rays

For all you pitch to contact proponents out there, Logan Allen has a 37.6 HardHit% with just an 18 K% and 7.9 SwStr%. How’s all that working out for him? His 4.42 ERA is below all estimators, ranging from a 4.66 Bot ERA to a 4.89 SIERA. And that’s probably because 10.8% of his runs have been unearned. The nearly identical 9.6% Barrels/BBE and 9.8 BB% aren’t helping.

Ryan Pepiot has thrown five shutout innings allowing one hit in each of his last two starts. He’s walked four of 34 batters, but also struck out nine. In the first game, he faced just 16 Cardinals on 63 pitchers, but it took him 93 pitches for the same effort and 18 batters against Washington last time out, probably due to the three walks. Regardless, it’s nice to see him missing bats again. I had thought he was having a bad season and was surprised to see the 3.70 ERA nearly matching a 3.54 Bot ERA and below all other non-FIP estimator ranging from a 3.97 xERA to a  4.03 xFIP. The 15.7 K-BB% is more than competent, while the contact profile remains a bit of an issue (9.5% Barrels/BBE, 43.2 HardHit%), especially with a 38.7 GB% in a power friendly park (though not nearly as power friendly as everyone expected). With the changeup (25.1%, 70 PitchingBot, 131 Pitching+) is best and second most thrown pitch, it’s no surprise that he’s been much better against LHBs (.274 wOBA, .287 xwOBA) than RHBs (.337, .345) and that should serve him well against Cleveland.

In addition to Tampa Bay retaining the best running 30 day bullpen estimators in baseball for quite a while now (Cleveland is middle of the pack), I like Pepiot’s ability to shut down LHBs against Cleveland. They may add an extra couple of RHBs, but they don’t have the kind of ones you’d fear. I have the Rays (-134) as a bit more significant favorites here. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Angels @ Royals

Kyle Hendricks has struck out more than three in just 10 of his 26 starts. With just a 6.4 BB%, his 34.3 HardHit% has him all the way to a 4.14 xERA. More pitch to contact.

Noah Cameron faced the White Sox last time out. Hold on a minute. It’s going to take me a while to tally up all the strikeouts he had against them.

Back.

It’s a grade total of ZERO. Yes, no strikeouts against the White Sox. He faced 23 batters and all put the ball in play. Six of them scored. Cameron’s 18.9 K% should be a bit higher with his league average 10.8 SwStr% and near league average rate of called strikes. Even with just 5.3% Barrels/BBE allowed and a 3.52 xERA, the 2.92 ERA is a total fluke (.240 BABIP, 83.7 LOB%). He doesn’t have another estimator below four.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

White Sox @ Twins

Since hitting a six start mid-season swoon (26 runs in 22.2 innings with a 6.4 K-BB%), Shane Smith seem rejuvenated over his last five starts (eight runs in 29.1 innings with a 15.7 K-BB%). You don’t usually see Rule V guys get thrown right into the rotation, so from that standpoint, sticking around all year with estimators below four and a half (4.25 xERA to 4.49 xFIP) is quite the achievement, even if his 3.81 ERA is leaning on a .248 BABIP and 13.6% unearned run rate. Back to that rejuvenation, Smith’s velocity is up half a mph (96), while leaning more into sinkers (20.8%) at the expensive of sliders (4%) and changeups (13.8%). Yet, his ground ball rate (37.2%) has actually decreased during this stretch.

Taj Bradley was lit up by the White Sox, allowing seven runs, while striking out just one in his first start for the Twins (seems to be a common theme in today’s article), but turned it around against the Padres of all teams, striking out six of 19 with a solo home run his only hit allowed. Bradley, who claimed the Rays never made him look at scouting reports, jumped to 97.1 mph against the Padres (96.2 on the season) with nearly 20 inches of IVB (higher means fastball looks more like it’s rising and anything above 16 inches or so is considered above average with 20 absolutely elite). Bradley struck out 18 of 65 batters for the Twins at AAA, but with four home runs. I’m always skeptical about a pitcher the Rays have given up on for reasons other than money, but the Twins unlocked something in Joe Ryan the Rays missed, so maybe. Bradley’s 3.31 Bot ERA and 117 Pitching+ against the Padres were his best marks of the season. Let’s see if the new found stuff sticks and make sure the scouting reports are right side up.