Wednesday 9/3 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Marlins @ Nationals

Eury Perez threw 39 pitches and recorded two outs in his last start. He’s allowed 19 runs (17 earned) over his last 21.1 innings with an 11.0 K-BB%. He’s only thrown 71.1 innings, but it’s not completely shocking that he’s hit a wall in his first season back from TJ surgery.

Mitchell Parker posted his first quality start in seven tries last time out (6.1 IP – 3 ER). He’s allowed 34 runs (33 earned) over 33 innings with a 7.8 K-BB% and 56.8 HardHit% over this span.

Mets @ Tigers

Aside from the two rookies, Clay Holmes has been one of the better Mets starters over the last month with a 4.32 ERA and 4.38 xFIP in August, while his 56 GB% matches his season rate. He’s also posted a 4.45 SIERA and .311 xwOBA against in August, which is somewhere around league average, as the league was up in run scoring on a whole for the month. He’s recorded just six sixth inning outs over his last 14 starts. The Mets bullpen should be rested behind him after a blow out, but even so, who do you trust out of it besides Diaz right now?

What the Mets and Tigers have in common is many of their previously trustworthy starters really struggling and that certainly includes Casey Mize, who, despite striking out 10 Twins three starts back, has a 7.20 ERA over his last eight starts. That’s a lot of BABIP (.377) and strand rate (58.1%) unfortunateness, but also a 48.2 K-BB%, though his K-BB (14.4%) hasn’t really budged from his season rate (14.6%). And if the Mets bullpen has been a problem, Detroit’s has been a disaster.

I’m projecting two perfectly average starting pitchers here and will even give the Mets credit for a league average bullpen, due to their peripherals, while the Detroit pen is fifth worst in the league by the same measures over the last month. Both teams have played very poor defense (the Mets may gain some offense, but lose something there without Taylor), while the Tigers have a 117 wRC+ at home and the Mets have just been blasting the ball for about a month. I mean they led the majors with a team 143 wRC+ in August and have scored 22 runs in their first two games of September. They’re up above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP now. Add in both teams project positive base running lineups. It’s about time I started playing some Mets overs and benefiting from all these runs they’re scoring (8.5 -104). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.  

Rangers @ Diamondbacks

Back to back great starts for Jack Leiter, especially considering the second was in Sacramento. He’s allowed two runs over his last 13 innings, walking two, while striking out 17 of 47 batters. I do feel like we’ve seen this show before, though these are certainly the best back to back starts of his career. Let’s see if he can remain consistent with this.

Written here before his last start…

Don’t look now, but Zac Gallen has four quality starts over his last five outings (10 R, 29 IP). That’s more about his 79.9 LOB% than his 11.7 K-BB%, but Gallen gets credit for a 34 HardHit% and just four barrels during this stretch. In fact, he’s at a 34.7 HardHit% over his last eight starts and 5.6% Barrels/BBE over his last 10, but still has a 4.70 xERA on the year with 10% Barrels/BBE and a 43.7 HardHit% due to how poorly he started. It is interesting to note his velocity is up nearly a mph over his last six starts to 94 with improved pitch modeling grades by either system. Things seem to be moving forward, just slowly.

I seem to have been wrong about the “slowly” part. Gallen struck out eight of 22 Dodgers over six, two hit shutout innings.

The numbers say I should be playing the over in a positive run environment here, but I feel as if both pitchers are pitching their best ball of the season, while both lineups are a bit depleted. I’m going to pass for now, so prepare for 5-4 after the first inning.

Orioles @ Padres

Cade Povich

Good: 17.2 K-BB%

Bad: 12.6% Barrels/BBE, 48.9 HardHit%

Six days after one-hitting the Dodgers over six innings, Nestor Cortes lasted three innings (three runs) in Minnesota. He was down to 89.2 mph, a mph below this year’s average velocity and three mph below last year (1.5 mph below the previous two seasons with the Yankees). All of his season estimators still exceed five.

This is very close to Orioles for me. They just miss the cut here. I guess we could wait to see which version of Cortes we get, but by then it might be too late.

Dodgers @ Pirates

We finally got the full Ohtani last time out, as he struck out nine of 19 batters on a season high 87 pitches, though still didn’t go past five innings. After allowing nine runs over his previous 8.1 innings in road starts in Los Angeles (AL) and Colorado, this was a welcome sight for the Dodgers. Those two starts represent 60% of the runs he’s allowed over 32.1 innings. He’s dominated whether they hit the ball (3.6% Barrels/BBE, 32.1 HardHit%) or not (27.4 K-BB%).

Braxton Ashcraft also threw a season high 73 pitches last time out and it got him through 5.2 innings in St Louis. Since being inserted into the rotation (four starts), he’s posted a 24.3 K-BB% and 58.7 GB% without allowing a single barrel. His .261 xwOBA allowed in August was only 20 points higher than Ohtani.

We’re at a point where we could finally get six innings from both these guys and while Ohtani has been better, both have been very good. The interesting thing is that the Pirates claim significant defensive and bullpen edges, though I’m taking the later with a grain of salt with the Dodgers getting key arms back over the last couple of weeks. Considering Pittsburgh’s poor offensive numbers and the Dodgers mere 100 wRC+ on the road, I do like the price on a F5 under (4.5 -135).

Blue Jays @ Reds

There were reports that Shane Bieber looked great in rehab starts and he carried that into his first two starts of the season, striking out 15 of 41 batters without a walk. He has allowed a pair of home runs on three barrels with a 60 HardHit%, but allowed just three runs over 11.1 innings and sat exactly 92.7 mph in both starts, which is also exactly what he averaged in 2021.  

After a great first start for the Reds at Wrigley, Zack Littell has finally experienced some expected regression over his last four (4.79 ERA/4.34 FIP/4.67 xFIP). His K-BB has also dropped three points (9.7%) over this stretch. Littell still has a .256 BABIP and 82.6 LOB% on the season, holding his 3.63 ERA more than two-thirds of a run below estimators.

Guardians @ Red Sox

A pair of LHPs are recalled to make starts here. Joey Cantillo has a 27.7 K%, but was sent down after four walks in three of his last five starts spiked his walk rate to 12.5%. He walked three of 21 in his latest AAA start, after striking out nine with just one walk in his first. Aside from awful pitch modeling, his 3.93 ERA is otherwise very much aligned with most estimators this season.

Kyle Harrison’s estimators also averaged right around four, about half a run better than his ERA, through 23.2 innings for the Giants. He started six games for the Giants at AAA with a 26.3 K-BB%, but 11 games for Boston at AAA with a 9.9 K-BB%.

The obvious appeal for Boston here is Cleveland’s 80 wRC+ on the road and 75 vs LHP, while Boston also has a significant defensive edge. I mean, the Guardians really can’t hit LHP. Let’s take a small shot with BOS F5 (-138).

Mariners @ Rays

Aside from being pounded for seven runs by the Mets in what I think was a Sunday night game (the Little League classic on a non-major league field against the hottest offense in the league), George Kirby hasn’t allowed more than two runs in the other six of his last sever starts, all quality starts. While striking out 24.3% of batters faced, the 6.1 BB% is nearly double his career rate, leading to a career low 18.2 K-BB%, which is strangely higher (20.6%) on the road this year. While his contact profile also includes a carer worst 8.7% Barrels/BBE and 42.6 HardHit%, most pitchers would like to have his problems. All estimators are below, but within half a run of his 3.94 ERA with a career worst 12.1 HR/FB.

Adrian Houser has been very hit or miss in his five starts for the Rays with 13 of his 14 runs coming in three of his five starts. After nearly pitching himself out of the league last year, a 1.5 mph gain in velocity, averaging a career best 95.1 mph (95.3 with the Rays) has allowed him to recapture his career average K-BB (8.9% this year, 9.1% career) and ground ball rate (49.5%, 51.5%). While his 46.9 HardHit% is a career worst, the 6.2% Barrels/BBE is a three year best. There’s still the matter of an 80.1 LOB% that’s 10 points above his career rate and just one-third of his barrels leaving the park, but we’re talking about a now useable pitcher, not a good one.

Conditions in Tampa Bay may be slightly warmer than usual (mid-80s around game time), boosting this to a more hitter friendly environment than it’s usual near neutral run factor and that kind of kills Kirby, as the highest priced pitcher on the board for me. I essentially have five pitchers (including him) tied for the fourth through eighth spots overall on this board, so being the most expensive on the board, makes him one of the lesser values. We’re never using Houser in a spot like this (or any other spot), but home field advantage plus superior base running, added to a full run bullpen edge over the last month takes away most of the Seattle starting pitching edge here (which is about three quarters of a run), I’m showing small value on the Rays +120.

Angels @ Royals

If Jose Urena bulks this game, as expected, it will be the fifth different major league team that has given him at least three innings this year. With a 5.00 ERA that’s below all of his estimators, the question is: WHY?

I wondered for a brief moment if the Royals had unlocked something in Ryan Bergert after he struck out out 15 of 46 batters in this second and third start for them. He’s struck out a total of 10 batters over his other three starts for them with the White Sox and Twins being those strong efforts. They have upped his slider and dropped his fastball about five percentage points each. They’re both still the two pitches he throws most often (more than 75% of the time) with a 1.5 point increase in SwStr% since the trade. The grades on both pitches ( > 60 Pitching Bot, 122 Pitching+ on the slider) have improved to around elite since the trade too.

Listen, I don’t know why I’m cherry picking things for Bergert when the clear why he’s my third favorite overall pitcher on FanDuel, top five on DraftKIngs and potentially a great value on either is because he’s facing the Angels, whose projected lineup averages a 26.8 K% vs RHP this year and that’s with Trout and Ward projected in (they’ve missed the last two games with injuries). Urena is easily the worst value on the board against a Royals offense that doesn’t strike out.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Braves @ Cubs

Bryce Elder has allowed three runs over his last 13 innings to the Mets and Phillies, striking out nine of 51 batters with a 32.4 HardHit%. With his season hard hit rate still more than 10 points higher, along with a single digit K-BB% that didn’t improve with these two starts, I’m not buying. The only upside is that he keeps 50.4% of his contact on the ground and doesn’t allow too many barrels.

Cade Horton has allowed four runs over his last 42 innings with an above average 15.6 K-BB% and just 7.4% Barrels/BBE. Sure, the .208 BABIP, 96 LOB% and just 25% of his barrels leaving the park during this stretch plays a tremendous part, but he is pitching well. These are still the numbers of an above average pitcher. The major problem we have here is that the Cubs have only let him go past 75 pitches once in his last six starts.

Weather may play a part here. We’re certainly going to have cooler temperatures, possibly in the low 60s with some wind. I’m not sure which direction, but cooler temperatures generally coincide with the wind blowing in at Wrigley (which I’ll definitely be wrong about now). This probably helps Horton more, as Elder has a 12 point higher ground ball rate. However, it also has me leaning towards the under at even money at 8.5.

This also makes both of these pitchers more viable. Elder still probably only in an SP2 role as (I believe) the third lowest priced pitcher. Depending upon how pitcher friendly it is, Horton could be the top pitcher and value on the board (though I’d take some off on FanDuel for the workload limitations – he’s still gotten to six innings a couple of times and missed by a single out a couple others). I’ve only dinged the run environment 10% so far, but if winds are blowing in it could get up to around 15%.

White Sox @ Twins

Yendrys Gomez has walked nine of his last 39 batters, which includes a start against the Twins and hasn’t exceeded five innings yet. He’s also allowed 13.2% Barrels/BBE so far (5.80 xERA).

With an 8.7 K-BB% over his last three starts and eight barrels over his last four (12.7%), I’m not thrilled in the direction Zebby Matthews is moving in, while the mph drop off in velocity over his last three is a bit concerning as well. That said, he still has a 20.1 K-BB% on the year with a 4.43 xERA more than half a run above the rest of his estimators which are a run and a quarter lower than his 5.06 ERA (.370 BABIP).

I still think Matthews may be undervalued, but the bit thing here is that we may be looking at temperatures in the mid-50s here. Add that to a matchup with he White Sox and Matthews may be my number two arm on the board (behind Horton). While I have Matthews as a top five value, he’s a bit more expensive and less of a value (potentially) than guys like Horton or Bergert.

Phillies @ Brewers

Aaron Nola has allowed seven runs (six earned) over 12 innings back from the IL. He looked much better in his first outing against the Nationals than his most recent against the Braves. Certainly unfortunate that 14 of his 17 barrels have left the park this year, even pitching in Philly, but his 16 K-BB% is his worst since his rookie year. We can chalk some of that up to injury if you want. His velocity is up a mph since returning (in both starts) and his pitch modeling and contact neutral estimators have been much stronger than results this year, but there’s also 4.96 xERA. Either way, he’s probably due significant positive regression.

I got one right!

You may be thinking Jose Quintana is beating his peripherals as he normally does, so it’s no big deal, but his 16.2 K% is two points lower than last year and his lowest mark since his rookie season in 2012 with an 8.4 BB% more than a point above his career rate. His 9.2% Barrels/BBE is the second worst mark of his career and well above his 5.8% career rate. Quintana’s 42.4 HardHit% is exactly six points above his career rate and his highest rate since 2021, when he set his career high in barrel% too. However, he also has a career low .254 BABIP and a 78.6 LOB% that’s the second best of his career and highest since 2016. Quintana’s best estimator is a 4.74 dERA with a 3.32 ERA.

The Diamondbacks torched Quintana for six runs in 3.2 innings. They walked four times too.

Seems we’ll be looking at cooler temperatures in Milwaukee too, but they could just close the roof, which gives it a 92 park run factor (Statcast three year), a very negative run environment. I have Nola in that Kirby range, those back end top eight guys. Tough matchup in a favorite park at a decent price makes him a decent value. There’s plenty of risk and little upside to Quintana.  

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Athletics @ Cardinals

Jeffrey Springs has allowed 13 runs over his last 19 innings, but 12 of those 13 runs came in his three home starts during this stretch. His 11.8 K-BB% isn’t going dazzle you, but he remains a strong contact manager (7.9% Barrels/BBE, 36.6 HardHit%), which translates into solid performance away from Sacramento (.292 wOBA allowed on the road).

Matthew Liberatore has a 4.3 K-BB% over his last 10 starts and hasn’t gone beyond five innings in his last nine.

Springs is actually among that Kirby/Nola/one more guy group with a park upgrade and may be able to give you a cheap quality start against a banged up St Louis lineup. Sure, maybe a solid value, but probably without enough upside to win you a GPP.

Yankees @ Astros

Will Warren

First 17 starts: 19.5 K-BB%, 8.2% Barrels/BBE, 93.3 mph

Last 11 starts: 8.3 K-BB%, 11.7% Barrels/BBE, 93.1 mph

Jason Alexander has allowed nine runs over his last 33.2 innings (six starts) with a 17.6 K-BB% and 7.4% Barrels/BBE, but 48.9 HardHit%. The latter is a bit of a concern and may mean the barrels aren’t sustainable, but he does have a ground ball rate in the upper 40s. Now, he’s throwing all the same pitches the same amount of the time at the same velocities with a small drop in his SwStr%. There’s absolutely no improvement in his PitchingBot grades either, but a small improvement in his Command+ to 110 over this stretch. I can’t tell if there’s much to this or just the schedule (COL, BAL 2x, NYY, MIA, WSH).

Alexander is the last guy in that Kirby/Springs/Nola backend top eight group, but he’s in a tough spot with a price tag near $9K now, which I’d have trouble playing, despite the improvement.

Giants @ Rockies

Robbie Ray has walked seven of his last 45 batters faced with just five strikeouts and has exceeded a five ERA in three of his last four starts. While his peripherals are mostly above average, they don’t support his 3.18 ERA with estimators ranging from a 3.63 xERA to a 4.68 Bot ERA. Contact neutral estimators exceed four, but pitch modeling just hates him. He is up to 164 innings after throwing just 30 coming back from TJ surgery last year.

German Marquez returned to the rotation after a month’s absence with eight runs over 4.1 innings without a strikeout against the Cubs. With his barrels (9.4%) two points above his K-BB (7.3%), he doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below five.

I lied, Robbie Ray is the last guy in that group. I mentioned fourth through eighth way above. That’s give guys in that group. Not four. Still, not a guy I would play here for $9K or more and I don’t say that because the total snuck over by half a run on Tuesday night. It’s because while the Rockies still have a 75 wRC+ against LHP, their recent lineup against LHP doesn’t have as many strikeouts. Some of the guys towards the bottom of that order are not good hitters, but they do make contact. It’s also projected to be a bit warmer at Coors (low 80s?). With the Giants being one of the hottest offenses in the majors (160 wRC+ L7 days) against one of the worst pitchers in most positive run environment with hitter friendly weather, I’m playing the Giants to exceed their F5 run total of 3.5 (+105).

I'm hoping to have time to pick up from here with more DFS notes in the afternoon.