Tuesday 9/2 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Mets @ Tigers

Yes, it’s three starts, but aside from a 3.50 Bot ERA that’s unaligned with his 120 Stuff+, Nolan McLean’s worst estimator is a 3.06 dERA. All four walks came in his debut and he’s thrown 15 innings in his last two starts. Amazingly, OOPSY is the only projection system on his Fangraphs page below four, while ZIPs still has him above four and a half. That’s absurd.

Sawyer Gipson-Long faced just nine batters in his last outing and just three in the one before that. He faced 18 and six in the previous two. I don’t think he’ll be long for this game (no pun intended) and the Tigers just emptied their bullpen on Monday afternoon.

Dodgers @ Pirates

The six Reds Clayton Kershaw struck out his last time  out is his second highest total of the season. His 2.8 BB% over his last five starts moves him into double digit K-BB territory (10.4%). Add in exactly half his contact on the ground, managing 4.4% Barrels/BBE with a 43.6 HardHit% and we have a 3.81 xERA and that is the best of his non-FIP estimators. Contact neutral estimators run as high as a 4.39 SIERA and then there’s his worst on the board pitch modeling. There’s a combination of things going on that make the 3.06 ERA unsustainable, but he has improved to league average territory after May.

If you were to ask Carmen to play you a Mlod, it would be a short one because he’s the reliever man. He has done a nice job in the two to three innings he’s been in there though, with his 3.86 ERA within half a run of most estimators and far better pitch modeling than Kershaw.

I’m not saying the pitch modeling makes Mlodinski the better pitcher, but, well, he actually might be for a few innings. The Dodgers did get back some bullpen guys (and also lost another one), so I’m willing to neutralize the bullpen gap in favor of the Pirates in August, but the Pirates are still at home with the better defense against an offense with just a 100 wRC+ on the road this year. As with most Dodger lines, this one is inflated. It’s often been a smart move to wait on these and watch them further inflate, but I’m not so sure it will go that way with the sharper bettors knowing better than paying big prices with Kershaw this year. The Pirates at +156 is plenty enough for me. F5 (+136) is fine too if you want to avoid bullpens, but I’m showing more value on the better full game price. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Blue Jays @ Reds

It’s often difficult to find the right words to analyze Jose Berrios, so I’m not going to use very many, except to tell you that his best estimator is a 4.35 xFIP that’s 0.4 runs above a his 3.95 ERA. He’ll occasionally enough pull a terrific game out of his ass, like he did last time out in Miami, which will keep enough people (ex-players turned broadcasters) in on him, but with 49 barrels (10.9%), he’s lucky the damage hasn’t been worse.

Nick Lodolo returned from more than a three week stay on the IL to allow four runs in 4.2 innings to the Dodgers, but with just four hits and walk, while striking out six with more than half his contact on the ground. His 3.22 ERA on the season is below, but within half a run of all non-pitch modeling estimators.

In a hitter friendly (and very power friendly park), I have the Reds close to five runs here. It’s not just Berrios’s barrel proneness, but Toronto also has a bottom half of the league bullpen for August and the Reds are one of the top base running teams too. That being said, I totally understand if the -146 is too high a prie to pay on 3.5 runs because Berrios is so feast or famine. It’s often blow out or shut out.

Guardians @ Red Sox

Slade Cecconi has allowed 12.6% Barrels/BBE with a 49.4 HardHit

Garrett Crochet’s 25 K-BB% is 3.7 points behind Tarik Skubal for the major league lead among qualified starters. He’s thrown at least six innings with two runs or less in 15 of his last 21 starts.

Marlins @ Nationals

Adam Mazur has a 1.5 K-BB% in 43.1 major league innings.

Cade Cavali’s first five starts have been feast (two starts of 11.1 innings of shutout ball) or famine (all 15 runs in 13.1 innings). The 13.1 SwStr% plust sub-7% walk and barrel rates are encouraging even if the pitch modeling is conflicting.

Mariners @ Rays

Bryan Woo failed to finish six innings for the first time last time out. He pitched well, but ran up 95 pitches and missed by a single out. He allowed two runs and a walk to the Padres, while striking out six. Still seems like a victory to me. Estimators ranging from a 3.09 xERA to a 3.56 FIP are a bit above his 2.95 ERA and also suggest he’s been a bit unfortunate with 23 of his 39 barrels leaving the park, especially since he pitches in Seattle. Woo is 10^th among qualified MLB pitchers with his 20.8 K-BB%.

Drew Rasmussen has gone exactly six innings in four straight (five total earned runs). He did throw 91 pitches in one of those starts, but no more than 85 in any of the other three and fewer than 80 in two. He’s just so damn efficient. I mean, look at the pitch matchup ratings at the bottom of the page. He and Woo are the only top five pitchers there on the main daily fantasy slate tonight. He’s running rates (3.05 Bot ERA – 3.69 SIERA) almost as good as Woo, getting a little help from the 81.6 LOB%. He just doesn’t have nearly the same workload, where his ceiling is basically Woo’s floor.

We’ve played nearly a full season and George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa Bay still hasn’t turned into the massive scoring environment many projected. In fact, it’s remained nearly neutral for almost the entire season, while being very slightly power friendly, but more towards RHBs, despite the dimensions of Yankee Stadium. Obviously, it’s still a significant downgrade from T-Mobile in Seattle. Woo is a top five pitcher for me on Tuesday night, but not top two in this spot, which really makes him a lower half of the board value as the most expensive pitcher on the board. Rasmussen may be even a worse value against a tough lineup with pretty strict workload limitations.  

Angels @ Royals

I have absolutely no idea who’s pitching for the Angels on Tuesday, but Roster Resource has Chase Silseth listed and he pitched in relief on Monday. I read a comment on Twitter that mentioned whoever the Angels call up for roster expansion will probably get the start, so I found 24 year-old lefty Mitch Farris, who has just a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs), but struck out 13 of 27 in his last AA start on August 26^th. I guess he’s going to bypass AAA, but he’ll do. He has a 17.2 K-BB% at AA this season.

With a 20.8 K-BB% over his last five starts, Michael Lorenzon has driven his K-BB on the season up to 13.8%. That’s league average with a very respectable contact profile (see directly above). It has been weak competition with the White Sox twice, along with the Rangers, plus starts in Seattle and Arizona, but well…no, he’s still running estimators from a 4.23 SIERA to a 5.01 dERA and that’s probably due to the 38.6 GB%. Eh, what are you gonna do?

Well, I’ll tell you what I’m going to do and that’s probably play a pitcher against the Angels. Rengifo is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 25 K% vs RHP this season. That alone makes Lorenzon a back end top five arm for me, very much in alignment with Woo and one other. The improved performance lately just gives me more confidence than I normally would have in stating he may be a top three value on either site in this great matchup. The Angels have some pop, which makes them dangerous, but it’s strikeouts over home runs in daily fantasy and this is one of the most power suppressive environments in the league anyway (despite Lorenzon allowing 18 home runs on 27 barrels this year).

Braves @ Cubs

Joey Wentz allowed a single run in three of his last four starts, but two of those were against the Marlins and the other the Guardians, who can’t hit LHP. The one real offense he faced during this stretch (the Mets, who also haven’t hit LHP that well) tagged him for six runs. He has just a 10.7 K-BB% in eight starts for the Braves.

Aside from Willy Adames’s pair of home runs, nobody else could touch Shota Imagana in San Francisco last time out. He allowed three other hits and struck out five over seven innings of three run ball, his third straight seven inning quality start and fifth straight QS with seventh inning outs. In fact, Imanaga has recorded seventh inning outs in seven of his last nine starts with a 21.7 K-BB%, though he has allowed 9.9% Barrels/BBE (10.1% season) with just a 28.9 GB%, which has actually increased his season rate.

I don’t yet have accurate wind information for Wrigely and DraftKings won’t even post a total or F5 line until that happens, but temperatures are expected to be in the 70s. With neutral weather, Wrigley is one of the more negative run environments in baseball, but I’m sure few people realize that because it rarely is neutral weather. Add in the increasing workload to some strikeouts in the projected Atlanta lineup (four above a 27.5 K% vs LHP and two more above 22%) and Imanaga is my number two overall pitcher on Tuesday night. At less than $10K, that would make him a top seven DK value and top five FD one currently. This could change. Wentz may be a bit too cheap at $6.1K on FanDuel too, but the QS may be tough to come by here, even though he’s done in it in three of his last six.

White Sox @ Twins

Davis Martin’s best estimator is a 4.48 Bot ERA (89 Pitching+) that’s nearly half a run above his 4.03 ERA (seven unearned runs out of 59).

SWR has allowed 11 runs and five home runs over his last 11.1 innings with as many walks (nine) as strikeouts. His 4.34 xERA is his only estimator below a 4.59 ERA and that’s despite 11.3% Barrels/BBE.

These are both bottom of the board pitchers and values. It currently looks like the worst weather report on the board too.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Athletics @ Cardinals

Luis Severino has a 19.9 K-BB% over his last five starts with both a predominantly LH Cleveland lineup and a predominantly RH Houston lineup during this stretch. We mention that because of his 30 point actual and 50 point Statcast wOBA/xwOBA splits. He’s done this with a more than half a mph velocity increase (96.8 mph) and replacing one-third of his sinkers (21% to 14%) with four-seamers. He has a 61 PB FB grade and 131 P+ fastball grade over this span, as opposed to 53 and 107 on the season. It is interesting and injuries do make the Cardinals a more RH lineup these days. However, Severino still has awful season numbers with only his pitch modeling and FIP below four and a half.

Miles Mikolas has a 12 K% over his last eight starts and isn’t even pitching deep into games anymore (62 BF L3 starts).

The only alluring Mikolas fact is that he’s $5.7K on DraftKings and the A’s lineup includes more strikeouts now with five guys above 23.5% against RHP. My numbers say Severino is a poor value because he’s been mostly awful and you can only count the last five games so much, but I can totally understand people taking a shot with him in their SP2 spot with the Cardinals not hitting an owning a 28.2 K% last week.

Yankees @ Astros

We have two pitchers in Houston who are nearly the same guy from a numbers perspective. Max Fried is a ground baller (51.2%), who pitches deep into games, striking out more than a league average rate of batters (23.1%) when he’s right. Fried will generally allow less hard contact than Valdez, even though his 6.9% Barrels/BBE is a career worst and 37% hard hit rate is his worst since 2019. Those only speak to how great a contact manager he’s been. More encouraging is 13 innings of one run ball with 13 strikeouts and a 62.5 GB%, which suggests Fried’s blister issues may finally be history. He’s got some barrel luck going for him with only 13 of 32 leaving the park, more surprising pitching in Yankee Stadium, maybe less surprising as a LHP. Fried’s 3.06 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 3.21 FIP to a 3.75 Bot ERA (3.73 xERA). He’s dropped his cutter usage in favor of more sliders last two times out.

Framber Valdez is a ground baller (58.9%), who pitches deep into games, striking out more than a league average rate of batters (23.4%) when he’s right. He walks more batters (8.3% is 2 points higher) with more hard contact (46.3%) than Fried, but is somehow allowing a lower rate of barrels (6.4%). That’s because of the higher ground ball rate. Framber is coming seven shutout innings, three hitting the Rockies in Houston, but allowed 21 runs (19 earned) in his previous 23.1 innings with a 1.9 K-BB%. While both teams hit LHP well, Valdez has the tougher matchup here.

While both pitchers may be back end top five or six arms tonight, neither is cheaper than $9.8K on either site and not a great value in a tough spot.

Giants @ Rockies

Logan Webb has recorded seventh inning outs in three of his last four starts, allowing one run or less in four of his last six and struck out at least seven four times as well. His 20.9 K-BB% is a career high, while sustaining more than half his contact on the ground (53%) with a career high 8.2% Barrels/BBE (still better than league average) with a three year low in hard hit rate (40.9%). The 12.7% Barrels/BBE over his last 12 starts is a bit concerning transitioning to Colorado, but it’s more a high run environment than great home run spot. Webb has upped his changeup usage to 31.5% over his last eight starts (23.8% season), though his sinker, slider and changeup are all very strongly graded pitches.

Kyle Freeland’s last home start was two runs in four innings, striking out five Dodgers with a single walk. Three of his previous four starts were questionable quality starts with less than impressive peripherals. He hasn’t been good at home (9.1 K-BB%, .394 wOBA allowed), but the Giants have a 77 wRC+ vs LHP with four of the first six in the projected lineup (likely guys he’ll face three times) above a 25 K% against southpaws this year.

We have a lot going on here and let’s take a look at the total first (10.5u -114). We have the Rockies with an 86 wRC+ at home and 78 vs RHP. The projected lineup averages an 89 wRC+ against RHP. Multiply that by a park factor that’s 25% above average (best run environment in the league) and you are STILL left with a matchup that’s around average or not much worse. In other words, you’d much rather face these Rockies at Coors than the Yankees at Yankee Stadium or even the Mets at Citi Field. Throw in the Giants with a 95 road and 77 LHP wRC+ and you have an overblown total, especially with a Cy Young contender on the mound.

Next, we have the daily fantasy angle. Again, this is a near average spot for Webb, who has been great and pitches deep into games. He’s my top pitcher on the board and a top five or six value on  either site. Though I probably won’t be doing much of it, especially playing single entry, Freeland may even be fine for $5K as a punt SP2, considering he has around an average matchup too. There are strikeouts at the top of the San Francisco lineup and contact outs at the bottom.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Orioles @ Padres

Tyler Wells makes his first start (his first major league action) since April 12^th, 2024. He has a career 16.4 K-BB%, though with 10.1% Barrels/BBE. He’s posted an 18.1 K-BB% across 23.1 AAA innings, working his way up to 6.1 innings and 25 batters faced last time out. Yet, projections are above four and a half almost universally. Feels like a disconnect, but he’s facing the Padres, so we’re not really thinking about rostering him anyway.

Yu Darvish has alternated quality starts with a singe run or less with not getting past the fourth innings over his last seven. The good news is he’s due for a good one. The bad news is we know that’s bullshit. Only two of his last eight starts have been at home, but he’s pitched in places like Seattle and San Franciso, along with Dodger Stadium and Arizona. More good news is that he’s posted at least a 20 K-BB% in six of his last seven starts, but hasn’t thrown 85 pitches in a start yet this season.

The Baltimore lineup in it’s current iteration, offers strikeouts. More against LHP, but a strong average of 24.9% against RHP among those projected for Tuesday. Considering their 85 wRC+ on the road too, I’m kind of swaying on Darvish. He’s less than $7K on DK ($7.6K) on FD and could throw a quality start, but would need to be ultra-efficient and has a strikeout high of seven this year.

Rangers @ Diamondbacks

Unconfirmed, this could be Jacob Latz, who has been somewhat effective in four spot starts plus pen work. He even has a quality start, but just 12.3 K-BB% with a 38.6 GB% and 41.5 HardHit%. The 7.0% Barrels/BBE doesn’t seem incredibly sustainable and even with he roof already confirmed closed, this is the second highest run environment on the slate.

In two starts plus a bulk relief outing, Nabil Crismatt has allowed just five runs (three earned) over 14.2 innings with a 24.5 HardHit%, but single digit K-BB (9.2%). He hasn’t gone beyond 85 pitches, but somehow faced 27 Brewers over only 5.2 innings last time out. If there was something there in a starting role, I feel like someone would have found it before he turned 30. His 13.9 K-BB% as a reliever for the most part over 191.2 career innings isn’t very impressive either.

While Crismatt is cheap ($6K on DK) against a depleted lineup, only Pederson and Duran are below a 98 wRC+ against RHP, among those projected with an average 20.4 K-BB% against RHP across the nine. Gabriel Moreno would be the top framer on the board though. Tough call.

The way we started out, I thought we’d end up with more than just three, but really, the only other two that even came close was the Rockies (+194), who I really didn’t want to play anyway and the Red Sox F5 (-250), which would certainly be the largest favorite I’ve played all year.

We’ll pick up from here with expanded daily fantasy notes in the afternoon.