Thursday 8/28 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Red Sox @ Orioles

Garrett Crochet has struck out at least and allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. He completed seven innings in three of them too.

Cade Povich’s 16.8 K-BB% is the mark of a quality pitcher, but the contact profile is so bad (12.6% Barrels/BBE, 48.4 HardHit%) that his 5.13 ERA is actually lower than his 5.57 xERA.

Rockies @ Astros

Remember when Kyle Freeland has large Home/Road splits via K-BB%? Well, it’s down to 2.1 points. He’s allowed 20 runs over his last 31 road innings and that includes 7.1 shutout innings with two walks and strikeouts each two starts back.

Jason Alexander has allowed four runs over his last 23.1 innings with a 14.3 K-BB%, but 49.3 HardHit%. Only two of his six barrels have left the yard with a .200 BABIP and 93.4 LOB% over this stretch. His pitch modeling is still below average during this run. In fact, it’s worse overall than it was in Milwaukee in 2022 when he threw 71.2 innings with a 5.6 K-BB%. Alexander’s splits could be a saving grace for him here as RHBs are below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs are more than 70 points higher. The Rockies have Mickey Moniak.

Diamondbacks @ Brewers

Thirty year-old Nabil Crismatt has faced 19 batters on two separate occasions, totaling nine innings, in which his 23.7 K% would be a career high (not counting 8.1 innings in 2020), as would his 56.6 GB%. He’s increased his sinker usage to 25.5% and made a number of pitch usage changes without allowing a barrel and only six hard hit batted balls (24%) so far. Crismatt does have a career 14.3 K-BB% and 50.6 GB%, but has only started one major league game prior to this year.

You may be thinking Jose Quintana is beating his peripherals as he normally does, so it’s no big deal, but his 16.2 K% is two points lower than last year and his lowest mark since his rookie season in 2012 with an 8.4 BB% more than a point above his career rate. His 9.2% Barrels/BBE is the second worst mark of his career and well above his 5.8% career rate. Quintana’s 42.4 HardHit% is exactly six points above his career rate and his highest rate since 2021, when he set his career high in barrel% too. However, he also has a career low .254 BABIP and a 78.6 LOB% that’s the second best of his career and highest since 2016. Quintana’s best estimator is a 4.74 dERA with a 3.32 ERA.

Pirates @ Cardinals

The hype may be on guys like Skenes and Chandler, but Braxton Ashcraft has a 26.5 K-BB% through three starts (COL, @CHC, CIN) with 58.1% of his contact on the ground. He hasn’t allowed a barrel yet and only 32.3% of his contact has reached a 95 mph EV. He’s progressed from 56 to 62 to 65 pitches in these starts, efficient enough to cover five innings in each of his last two. Even more interesting is that his velocity has ticked up 0.2 mph to 97.2 in moving from the bullpen into the rotation. If you look at the pitch matchup ratings below, the guy directly above him has thrown nine innings and then the two lefties on top are both very good and facing teams that have been awful against LHP. Ashcraft is in a really strong spot here, against a less than 100% St Louis lineup with his slider looking like a potentially dominant pitch in this matchup.

Miles Mikolas has struck out exactly one in two straight and four of his last six starts. In fact, over his last seven starts, Mikolas has struck out 15, allowed 14 barrels and walked 10 of 146 batters. His best estimator is a 4.50 Bot ERA by one-third of run.

There is not only a large starting pitching mismatch here, but the Cardinals are struggling without Donovan and just three LHBs in the lineup. If you look at projected defensive lineups, it’s even. Look at projected lineup base running, it’s even. I have the Pirates (-106) as F5 favorites here. Even the bullpens are even if you want to go full game. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Cubs @ Giants

Four straight quality starts for Shota Imanaga and two straight (four of eight) with seven innings pitched. Whereas he had been benefiting from some BABIP (.212 on the year) and strand (85.3%) luck, well, that’s still the case, but he’s also now backing up the results with a 26.7 K-BB% over his last five (16.1% on the season). This is a great park for his batted ball tendencies (29.2 GB%, 10.1% Barrels/BBE) and a great matchup for him as well (Giants 76 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs LHP, 8.2 HR/FB at home). In fact, the Giants project a lineup with an average 65 wRC+ and 25.9 K% against LHP this year, though that can certainly change.

Logan Webb has allowed one run or less in four of his last five starts (22.7 K-BB%, 62.2 GB%). He’s back up to a career high 20.7 K-BB% on the season with his lowest hard hit rate in three years (40.6%). Webb’s 3.13 ERA matches his 3.11 SIERA as well as strong pitch modeling, which rivals Crochet for best on the board on Thursday.

This is the pitching matchup of the day. I may even have some total interest after seeing the early afternoon updates, but Imanaga has the massively better matchup with a massively better defense and bullpen behind him. They even have a massive base running edge too. I make the Cubs (+102) favorites here.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Braves @ Phillies

Cal Quantrill walked a season high five in his first start for the Braves. He had an impressive 17.3 K-BB% over 12 starts preceding his last five. The Marlins would pull after two trips through the lineup and it was working. Well, it’s not anymore (0.0 K-BB% last five). There are two questions here:

How quickly can the Phillies recover from their Citi Field nightmare series?

Will the Phillies play their normal lineup against LHP here (RHBs .411 wOBA, .392 xwOBA vs Quantrill)?

We can easily compare both of Aaron Nola’s first two starts back from the IL because they were both against the Nationals and he was much better in the second. His velocity was up over a mph (92.6 vs 91.5 in his first start and 91.6 on the season) and he generated a season best 16.5 SwStr% in a quality start with six strikeouts and one walk.

Marlins @ Mets

I have no idea who’s starting this game for the Marlins. MLB.com is TBD of course. Roster Resource has Adam Mazur, who is pitching right now for their AAA team, if the probables for that game is correct. Marlins twitter (yes, apparently they have real fans) appears to be clamoring a bit for someone named Robby Snelling. I might as well give them what they want. The 21 year-old lefty has just a 40 FV grade (Fangraphs). He was rated the 20^th best prospect in the system not much more than a month ago, but has dropped two spots since then. The book on Snelling seems to be good command with hittable stuff, though he has produced a 26.6 K-BB% over 39.2 AAA innings this year and projects around four and a half.

Clay Holmes recorded a seventh inning out in his last start. He last did that on June 1^st. He last completed six innings on June 7^th. Holmes had previously recorded a single sixth inning out since the All Star break. He still has just a 5.0 K-BB% over his last 11 starts with a high of six strikeouts and more than four just twice over that span. The ground balls (58.1%) have kept the barrels away (5.8%) during this stretch, despite a 41 HardHit%.

Fanduel has posted a price (+184), which might be too high, but I'd like some clarity on the pitching situation first because the Mets are much worse against LHP. 

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Yankees @ White Sox

More runs (five) than innings pitched (four) for the third time in his last 10 starts for Will Warren, who walked as many (three) as he struck out. Warren’s 8.3 K-BB% over this 10 start span drops him to 14.3% on the season. He was at 20.3% through his first 15 starts. Warren also had a 10.6 SwStr% through his first 15 starts, 7.4% over his last 10. The 131 innings he’s thrown this year shouldn’t be a problem with similar totals each of the last two years. While his hard hit rate has dropped, his overall contact rates (in zone and overall) and barrels (11.8% last 10) have increased.

Davis Martin has allowed two runs over his last 11 innings, striking out 10 of 41 batters. With a 9.6 K-BB%, 9.8% Barrels/BBE and 45.8 HardHit%, I guess that’s as good as it gets. Although, his velocity (94.4 mph) is up over half a mph over his last five starts, but those two starts were against the Twins and Royals and he really hasn’t been doing much differently with the velocity gain. In fact, his fastball and overall pitch modeling seem to have gotten worse.