Tuesday 8/26 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Red Sox @ Orioles

Over his last five road starts (CHC, PHI, MIN, SDP, NYY – very tough run), Lucas Giolito has allowed 17 runs over 24.2 innings with 18 strikeouts and 14 walks (116 batters faced). On the season, all estimators area at least two-thirds of a run above his 3.72 ERA.

Kyle Bradish returns from Tommy John surgery. He’s worked his way up to nearly a full workload in AAA, where he has a 15.6 K-BB% over four starts. The good news is he’s sitting 94.6 mph, which is where he sat before surgery last season, through eight starts. Bradish projects a quarter of a run below four.

This looks for a nice spot for the Orioles to score some runs. I won’t side with them specifically in Bradish’s first start back, but I do like their total here (4.5 +114). Statcast drives Giolito’s wOBA against batters from either side of the plate up 50 points and Boston has been a bottom third of the league bullpen over the last month. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Rays @ Guardians

Prior to his effort against the Yankees exactly one week ago…

Shane Baz has allowed 24 runs (23 earned) over his last 25 innings…with a 19.5 K-BB% and league average-ish 40.5 HardHit% (8.1% Barrels/BBE). Four of his six barrels came in one start  in LA (AL). A .400 BABIP and 50.8 LOB% are running the show here. It gets even better over his last three starts with a 24.3 K-BB%. This is everything you want to see in a pitcher ready to heavily regress and potentially break out of a funk.

Well, he did something about it. He decided to stop striking batters out (three with a 9.2 SwStr%) and allowed five more home runs and barrels. Sure, a bit unfortunate that all five left the park, but also, allowing 38.5% or more of the contact against you in two of three starts to be barreled is another problem. Perhaps the good news is that he handles LHBs better than RHBs (at least by xwOBA, he has no wOBA split). Cleveland would seem like a much better spot for him.

Before making his debut last Wednesdsay…

Twenty-four year old Parker Messick is Clevelands fourth best prospect (FG) with a strong 50 Future Value grade. The young lefty has an 18.8 K-BB% at AAA, but is up to 26.3% over his last five starts. Fangraphs adjusted Messick as middle of the pack top 100 prospect, right behind Cam Schlittler, among the high floor mid-rotation group. Projections average a bit below four and a half.

Projections have only budged about one-tenth of a run, despite a great effort (6.2 IP – 26 BF – 1 R – 0 HR – 1 BB – 6 K). He allowed just four hard hit batted balls and produced great pitch modeling, impressing a lot of smart people, like ex-players turned analysts.

No. I’m kidding. I mean the "nerds who are ruining baseball" of course.

A negative run environment already with temperatures in the mid-60s, should help pitchers on Tuesday. I may be getting a bit ahead on Messick, but I used his actual projections here and still came away with the under. As mentioned, it should be a nice spot for Baz against an ice cold offense (32 wRC+ L7 days before being shut down on Monday night), while it’s the Rays’ turn to be in their lesser split against LHP. You're dealing with two strong bullpens here to, even without Clase. 

Braves @ Marlins

Hurston Waldrep has allowed just two runs over 24.2 innings with a 20.2 K-BB%, exactly half his contact on the ground and a 30.5 HardHit%.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed two earned over his last 13 innings, striking out 16 of 50 batter with two walks. Interesting that the Marlins are letting a guy coming back from TJ throw 114 innings late in the season, while going nowhere, but you do you Marlins.

Nationals @ Yankees

Mackenzie Gore followed a pair of bounce back starts with another poor one against the Mets last time out. He walked four, was barreled five times and didn’t last five innings.

Luis Gil (4.7 K-BB%) has walked at least three in each of his four starts.

We’re not interested in either of these arms for daily fantasy purposes right now (I’m using Monday’s FD prices because they’re late getting their slate up again.)

Twins @ Blue Jays

After striking out exactly four in each of his first three starts back from the IL, Bailey Ober struck out seven of 21 A’s last time out, tying a season high. However, the Twins are not letting him go past 90 pitches and he was down to 89.3 mph, a full mph below his last start, which was a full mph below his previous start.

Chris Bassitt tied a season high, striking out 10 of 25 Pirates last time out, but finished an out away from a quality starts. He still has issues with LHBs (.358 wOBA, .344 xwOBA), but has a strong defense and pitch framing backing him, while estimators are all below, but within half a run of his 4.18 ERA.

We don’t play potentially injured pitchers against the Blue Jays, no matter how cheap Ober is on DraftKings ($6.6K). Bassitt is outside my top five, inside my top seven or eight at a reasonable cost around $8.5K. It’s not a standout in strikeouts, workload or run prevention, but with that defense, he gives you the potential for enough of each.

Phillies @ Mets

Jesus Luzardo broke a string of 11 straight starts with either seven (7x) or four (4x) strikeouts last time out by striking out 12 of 21 Mariners, not even in Seattle. Luzardo is back up to a 20 K-BB% exactly. His 4.10 ERA is more than half a run between estimators ranging from a 3.04 FIP to a 3.46 SIERA and xERA.

Exactly four runs in three straight starts and five in the one preceding that for Sean Manaea, despite a 20.9 K-BB% over that span and 23.3% on the season. He’s allowed 6.8% Barrels/BBE with a 42.4 HardHit% over this span and 7% with a 38% on the season. Two things: six of seven barrels have left the park and he’s struggling with sequencing (67.4 LOB%). These are things that normally turn around.

As mentioned on Monday, two of the hottest offenses in baseball. The Mets surprisingly got to Sanchez on Monday, so while Luzardo is a backend top five arm for me here, I don’t like this spot for the price. Manaea has great rate stats, but has only gone beyond five innings once. Part of that is the home runs and strand rate, but it’s likewise not a great spot for him either.

Royals @ White Sox

Michael Lorenzon’s 4.50 sits in the center of estimators ranging from a 4.32 xFIP to a 4.97 dERA.

Take a look at Martin Perez’s pitch matchup rating numbers in the last graphic. A strong run value score with terrible pitch modeling suggests a pitcher is overperforming and additional estimators exceeding his 2.51 ERA by around two runs agree.

While both pitchers run estimators around four and a half, neither team does much with the bats (those numbers are above), while the Royals have a strong defense and both bullpens are top half of the board over the last month. I think, despite the starting pitchers, this could be an under (8.5 -105). Lorenzon may be cheap enough to work here too, though I'm not enamored by either of these pitchers for DFS purposes. 

Diamondbacks @ Brewers

A seven inning quality start in Cleveland for Brandon Pfaadt, allowing two runs last time out. His first QS in six tries. He’s occasionally shown some rebound, but just not consistently enough. He has just a 12 K-BB% over his last eight starts.

Jason Misiorowski has walked six of his last 27 batters faced and generally doesn’t go much past 80 pitches on a good day.

Pfaadt is nearly cheap enough where you can squint and see value. Misiorowski is overpriced for the workload and control issues.

Pirates @ Cardinals

Mitch Keller has allowed 21 runs over his last 20 innings (five starts) with a 6.9 K-BB% and 45.7 HardHit%.

Andre Pallante has allowed 15 runs over his last 12 innings. He has a 15.8 K%, but a 60.9 GB%. (But pitch to contact.)

This may be a spot where Pallante can make pitch to contact work and pick up a cheap QS if you want to punt an SP2.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Angels @ Rangers

Yusei Kikuchi has struck out just seven of his last 46 batters, but is coming off seven innings of one run ball against the Reds. Walks (9.4%) and barrels (9.3%) remain problems, but he generally pitches around six innings and still has strikeout upside (23.6%). The reason I mention this is because the lineup the Rangers have been throwing out there against LHP averages below an 80 wRC+ and includes six batters above a 23.5 K% against southpaws.

Patrick Corbin last four starts: 13.1 IP – 71 BF – 17 R – 4 HR – 10 BB – 8 K

Angels projected lineup against him: avg 112 wRC+, .225 ISO, 27.5 K% vs LHP

I’m not sure either of these pitchers are worth the risk, but both have high upside matchups. Corbin may have the higher upside matchup, but also the more dangerous one, but I also guess that’s why he’s $2-3K cheaper.

Rockies @ Astros

Occasionally, a Colorado starter has shown themselves to potentially have some value in the right spots. Tanner Gordon hasn’t proven himself to be one of those guys.

Hunter Brown has allowed five runs over his last 30 innings, but more so because he hasn’t allowed a home run with an 85.3 LOB%, than his 13.4 K-BB% with a 7.7 SwStr%. However, he has continued contact management excellence (3.7% Barrels/BBE, 32.9 HardHit% over his last five starts aren’t far off his season numbers) and still has a 21.3 K-BB% on the season with only one estimator reaching three and a half. That’s a 4.29 Bot ERA that’s in conflict with a 105 Pitching+.

It's the Rockies on the road. Their projected lineup averages a hefty 23.6 K% against RHP this year. Hunter Brown is certainly a top five arm, but as the most expensive pitcher on the board, may be a bit overvalued with the way he has been pitching lately. In fact, should this line keep climbing above +300…

Padres @ Mariners

Dylan Cease’s 30.1 K% is higher than last year. His 20.3 K-BB% is third best of his career. His 10% Barrels/BBE ties a career high with a small drop in ground ball rate (35.5%), but his hard hit rate (40.7%) is right around league average. His .314 BABIP is around 20 points higher than his career rate, but he’s been in that range before. The biggest difference is in his career low 67.6 LOB% and 19 of his 35 barrels leaving the park, one short of his career high in home runs allowed. Cease’s estimators are tightly packed between a 3.47 dERA and 3.76 Bot ERA, mostly more than a run below his 4.71 ERA.

In contrast to Cease, Luis Castillo’s declining stuff is being frequently hidden by the park. His 3.75 ERA is more than half a run below non-FIP estimators, while LHBs go from a .441 wOBA against him on the road to a .317 at T-Mobile, where the weather is expected to be a bit warmer than normal this week.

Castillo is an absolutely not against the Padres. Cease, with he park upgrade, a park that enhances strikeouts too, is my top pitcher on the board and a solid value against a Seattle offense with a 24.6 K% at home. This has to turn around for him at some point.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Cubs @ Giants

Matthew Boyd had been rolling since May, but has now had a pair of poor starts in his last three, allowing seven runs over 10.1 innings with six strikeouts against the Cardinals and Brewers. In between, he threw seven one run innings in Toronto, striking out five. I guess we call it a couple of rough days against good offenses and keep with the season numbers, which remain strong (16.5 K-BB%, 7.9% Barrels/BBE, 37.7 HardHit%). With estimators ranging from 3.28 FIP/3.29 xERA to a .390 SIERA/3.93 xFIP, the 2.61 ERA is a bit low (78.8 LOB%), but he gets a park upgrade in a great matchup on Tuesday. The projected San Francisco lineup averages an 85 wRC+ and 25.2 K% against LHP.

Justin Verlander has shown glimpses. He struck out eight Rays over seven shutout innings (two hits, no walks) two starts back, but then followed it up by allowing seven runs to the Padres. A 12.7 K-BB% and 37.1 HardHit% may keep him in the league in this park, but really only to pad his legendary career numbers, while dragging down some rate stats.

At $7K or less, Verlander may actually be fine in this park. He actually has a 17.5 K-BB% at home this year. Maybe he feels he can challenge batters more in San Francisco? Boyd is my number two overall, a better value on DraftKings for $1.3K less, but probably fine for $10K on FanDuel too. Can't go the entire slate with just totals, so I guess the Cubs (-134) are the play here. No, seriously, they have some large edges in almost every aspect of play. 

Tigers @ Athletics

Against some quality opponents, Charlie Morton has a 22.3 K-BB% in four starts for the Tigers. Just keep throwing that curveball (35.5%). Now, the four barrels (7.4%) he’s allowed with a 37.7 GB% and 46.3 HardHit%, I don’t know about and it could come back to punish him here, but Roster Resource’s projected lineup averages a 24 K% against RHP this year and that’s even with Wilson back.

We’ve got confirmation on Tuesday’s pitcher for the Athletics and I’m sure we’ll be playing several bats against Oswaldo Bido.

Morton is just about affordable enough that you can see the upside if he continues to get the batted ball help. I mean three quality starts with a total of three runs allowed in them for the Tigers (six in other though).

Reds @ Dodgers

Aside from a 3.94 Bot ERA, Nick Martinez otherwise has estimators within half a run of his 4.59 ERA.

Clayton Kershaw has a 12.6 K%, but 52.7 GB% over his last eight starts. He’s allowed two home runs on five barrels (3.3%) over this span. The 3.22 ERA and 3.34 FIP over this stretch are probably not sustainable.

We have no interest in either of these pitchers.