Friday 8/29 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Cardinals @ Reds

Pitching in both Florida parks his last two times out, Matthew Liberatore has struck out 10 of 40 batters, after striking out just eight of his previous 95 faced. He’s completed five innings just once over his last seven starts, over which he’s allowed 25 runs (20 earned) in 29 innings.

In his first start for the Reds at Wrigely, Zach Littell struck out eight of 26 Cubs over seven one run innings. He’s struck out nine of 56 since and even has an 8.9 BB% over his last five starts (4.3% on the season). Littell has an ERA and estimators around four over his last eight starts with a 72 LOB%. His season strand rate is still 83.1%, generating estimators all at least two-thirds of a run above his 3.62 ERA.

Rays @ Nationals

Even with five shutout innings in San Francisco and a quality start against the Cubs included, Adrian Houser has allowed 20 runs (19 earned) over his last 33 innings. He’s generating half his contact on the ground with a single digit K-BB% as he’s done all season, but his hard hit rate is up to 52.7% over this span. The Rays have him throwing more sliders and staying away from four-seamers.

Mitchell Parker has allowed 29 runs (28 earned) over his last 21 innings with a 1.9 K-BB%, 10% Barrels/BBE and 57.5 HardHit%. During this stretch, his slider (22.4%) has a 59 Pitching Bot grade and 110 Pitching+.

Braves @ Phillies

Bryce Elder has a pair of quality starts against the Mets sandwiching an eight run drubbing from the White Sox, which I know makes no sense. He’s walked two in all three, but struck out six Mets both times, but just three White Sox. On the season, he still runs from a 4.18 xFIP to a 5.15 xERA with LHBs owning a .348 wOBA and .379 xwOBA against him.

Ranger Suarez has struck out 21 of his last 49 batters, allowing two runs over 13.2 innings. In the previous six starts, he had an 11.2 K-BB% with 24 runs in 35.1 innings.

For similar reasons to Thursday, I’m siding with the Phillies to over their team total (4.5 -125). The reasons would be a strong offense and great base running from the Phillies and an awful defense for the Braves, along with the below average starter. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Brewers @ Blue Jays

Freddy Peralta has a 14 BB% over his last five starts (at least three in four of the five). Normally, you don’t want to pull a high strikeout arm off the board, but it’s the Blue Jays (17.3 K% vs RHP, 13.2 HR/FB at home) and it’s expensive. I currently have him projected as the worst point per dollar value on the board.

Exactly one week ago…

This will be Shane Bieber’s 2025 and Blue Jays debut. There have been good reports out of his rehab outings, going as many as seven innings last time out, so he should be a full go here. Bieber struck out 16 of 65 at AAA with just two walks. He projects about a fifth of a run below four, which seems reasonable.

Bieber was averaging 92.7 mph, which was his 2021 velocity. Maybe some adrenaline there, but he struck out nine of 21 Marlins with a 17.2 SwStr% on 87 pitches. Seven of his 11 batted balls were considered hard contact though and three (27.3%) were barreled.

I may lay off Bieber one more time and see what he does in a tougher spot. He’s up to $10K on DraftKings already and hasn’t even thrown 90 pitches yet.

Pirates @ Red Sox

Seven shutout innings for Paul Skenes last time out, as the Pirates let him throw seven pitches. The good news is that the conservation efforts seem to be over and the Pirates are going to let him go win a Cy Young and that he’s finally on a main daily fantasy slate. With a 22.9 K-BB% and better than average contact profile, Skenes’s worst estimator is a 3.26 Bot ERA. The bad news is that this is at Fenway. However, temperatures may be in the low 60s, which could neutralize the normally very positive run environment.

Roster Resource is listing Walker Buehler here, others seem to think it’ll be Kyle Harrison. Cora had recently said Buehler will not be starting anymore. This is our only point of uncertainty tonight.

Skenes is my top pitcher. I bet you’re stunned. He’s also the most expensive pitcher on the board. Currently he’s a slightly above average value on FanDuel ($10.7K) and slightly below average on DraftKings ($10.6K).

Mariners @ Guardians

George Kirby has walked six of his last 53 batters faced with just seven strikeouts. He’s also produced just one non-QS over his last six with seven of the 12 runs he’s allowed over that run allowed in a single Sunday night start in a non-major league stadium. Kirby is still sitting on an 18 K-BB% with all estimators more than a quarter of a run below his 4.05 ERA with just a 71.8 LOB% (actually in line with last year’s 71.6% after two years of 75.1%).

Three home runs and nine total allowed in Texas last time out for Logan Allen. He has a 14.6 BB% over his last four starts and is down to an 8.2 K-BB% on the season. He still has a 36.9 HardHit%, despite allowing 9.5% Barrels/BBE. It works out to 4.63 xERA, which is actually the best of his estimators.

A salient point here is that Cleveland is a negative run environment that should be further enhanced by temperatures in the low 60s here also. I think this is a nice bounce back spot for Kirby. He’s a top three arm for me on Friday and an above average value on either site right now. The park plus the weather plus the Mariners in their lesser split might mean you can roster Allen at $6.2K on DK if you need to.

Marlins @ Mets

Eury Perez seems to have hit a bit of a rough patch in his first season back from Tommy John. Although he did strikeout eight Guardians without a walk three starts back, he owns a mere 14.3 K-BB% over his last four starts (14 R, 20.2 IP) with a 45.6 HardHit% over that span. Interesting to see a 2.91 xERA, but a SIERA/xFIP/dERA combination all above four, while his 3.68 Bot ERA is closest to the 3.44 ERA. His .211 BABIP is countered by a 69.1 LOB%.

If you’re reading this, you’re probably familiar with what Nolan McLean has done over his first three starts. While copying that start is not an expectation I’d want to place on anybody, it’s my pleasure as a Mets fan to inform you that Jonah Tong is actually the superior pitching prospect. He doesn’t have as many pitches as McLean, but a better fastball and nasty curve. Fangraphs has him as a 50 Future Value prospect, which may be a bit low. After posting a 29.7 K-BB% over 20 AA starts, Tong needed just a pair of AAA starts (31.1 K-BB%) to show his dominance there too. It’s not often a pitcher will debut with projections below four, but just a bit below four is exactly what Tong averages per the major projection systems on his Fangraphs page.

This is too tough a matchup to roster Perez in. Tong is more interesting, but already $300 more than Perez on either site.

Yankees @ White Sox

Carlos Rodon has just a 7.9 K-BB% over his last seven starts and hasn’t struck out more than five in four straight (3.2 K-BB%). The crazy thing is that he’s allowed just a pair of barrels with a 28.6 HardHit% over his last four starts too. He sat 93.5 mph for four straight starts (94.2 mph on the season) before 95.1 mph (highest average since April) against the Red Sox last time out. Which version of Rodon will we see here?

In three starts Yoendrys Gomez has struck out 16 of 64 batters (12.6 SwStr%) with three walks and just a 32.5 HardHit%. His velocity (94 mph) is up half a mph from his bullpen work. He’s been throwing a fastball about one-third of the time and five other pitches between 7.5% and 20% of the time. Pitching+ thinks the cutter (7.5%) is a stud pitch (135 over three starts) with Pitching Bot liking it (56), but not to the same extent. The only other pitch either thinks is even average is the fastball.

The Yankees catch the White Sox in their better split here (though I guess the absence of Luis Robert may hurt a bit) with a pitcher who’s somewhat struggling. I can give the Yankees every edge in this game and still think +184 is too high. Gomez has shown some upside in a starting role. From a daily fantasy standpoint, Rodon is a backend top third of the board arm and value on FanDuel, but I wouldn’t play him for $1K more and just $100 less than Skenes on DraftKings.

Angels @ Astros

Tyler Anderson has had either five strikeouts or walks in four straight and five of six. Yes, that’s as disturbing as it sounds with 27 runs allowed and a 3.9 K-BB% over his last 39.2 innings.

Cristian Javier threw 85 pitches in his first start, 50 in his second and 65 in his third. He has an 8.7 K-BB% and 44.8 HardHit%.

The only two reasons I could give you to consider either of these pitchers is that Anderson is incredibly cheap on DraftKings and has been much better (.312 wOBA, .337 xwOBA) against RHBs this season and that the Angels offer Javier so many strikeouts if he can put it together and pitch five or six innings. I don’t know what this reverse build up is all about.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Tigers @ Royals

Chris Paddack is the rare volatile pitcher without much upside and is in a low strikeout upside spot. He struck out one Royal in his last start and allowed three home runs the start before that.

Seth Lugo has allowed at least six runs in three of his last four starts  and his 3.99 ERA is still at least half a run below all estimators. The Tigers should be able to exploit his .358 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against LHBs.

Padres @ Twins

Nestor Cortes has allowed nine home runs over six starts. Eight of those home runs came in two starts against the Yankees (Opening Day) and the Giants and almost all of those came in the first inning (six of seven). He’s played walkigami, hitting every number of walks from zero to five in his starts, while striking out exactly 20% of the batters he’s faced for a shiny 8.0 K-BB%. Yet, his best start came last time out when he one-hit the Dodgers over six innings. Go figure. I don’t know what we’re getting here. It could be anywhere from solid to awful.

A little concerning that Zebby Matthews has walked seven of his last 45 batters, but his 5.30 ERA is still absurdly above estimators ranging from a 3.38 xFIP to a 4.39 xERA. Yes, that’s a wide gap and the barrels that did him in last year (14%) are beginning to creep back in (six over his last three starts and now 10.7% on the season), but he still has a 20.9 K-BB%, which I believe might be a bit more sustainable than those barrels. What’s certainly not sustainable is a the .376 BABIP and that nine of his 16 barrels have left the park.

I don’t know how Cortes will pitch, but give me better than 50/50 and I’ll side with the pitcher who has been way undervalued in Matthews. The Twins traded away their bullpen, so we’ll want to stay F5 (+102), but the lineup hasn’t really suffered from the loss of Correa. We don’t usually start pitchers against the Padres. Matthews costs just $7K on FanDuel, which may be too low, but he has just one quality start and two with six innings or more.

Cubs @ Rockies

There seems to be some sort of conservation with a minor injury in between, as Cade Horton has thrown fewer than 75 pitches in four of his last five starts with 82 in Toronto in which he struck out a career high eight batters. The thing is, he has a 26.3 K-BB% over his last four starts with a 29.8 HardHit%. While his Pitching+ score remains the same during this stretch, his Bot ERA has improved half a run, as Horton has allowed just two runs over 20 innings.

I was led to believe German Marquez was being moved to the bullpen. Or maybe I just thought he should be?

Unless it’s extremely warm, which it won’t be, I have no fear of Coors. In fact, my biggest fear is Horton’s workload here, but he’s below $8K, pitching well and has shown the efficiency to get through five innings on a 70-75 pitch count. The Cubs may even let him go further if he’s pitching well here and the one thing the Rockies have done this year is been an efficient matchup for pitchers. I’d rather five innings of this at this price than six innings of most other guys who cost more.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Rangers @ Athletics

Jack Leiter not only struck out a career high 10 Guardians in his last start, but he DIDN’T WALK A SINGLE BATTER over seven shutout innings with just two hits. It makes a bit of sense, as Leiter has a reverse split (RHBs .332 wOBA, .360 xwOBA), which is a benefit against a lineup like Cleveland, but won’t be in Sacramento. He still has a 10.9 K-BB% on the season with only his FIP (4.36) and Bot ERA (4.39) below four and a half. I'm not ready to state he's turned it around after that start. He walked three Royals in his previous outings and has looked like he was getting it together before, but this was a different kind of outing and certainly a step forward if he can capitalize. 

Jeffrey Springs was working on a string of seven quality starts at home before allowing nine runs over his last eight innings in Sacramento to the Angels and Rays. He bounced back with five innings of one run ball on two hits in Seattle. In fact, Springs has allowed two hits or less in three of his last five starts (of course you now know which three). His 11.7 K-BB% is merely competent, but Springs has been a strong contact manager (37.1 HardHit%) for years, which has allowed him to pitch effectively at home.

I’m not in the habit of recommending pitchers in this park, but both are cheap and offer different things. Leiter has the strikeout upside against a prone, but dangerous group of bats. Springs is facing an offense with an 83 wRC+ and 23.6 K% against LHP, which has been losing bats by the day.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers

Don’t look now, but Zac Gallen has four quality starts over his last five outings (10 R, 29 IP). That’s more about his 79.9 LOB% than his 11.7 K-BB%, but Gallen gets credit for a 34 HardHit% and just four barrels during this stretch. In fact, he’s at a 34.7 HardHit% over his last eight starts and 5.6% Barrels/BBE over his last 10, but still has a 4.70 xERA on the year with 10% Barrels/BBE and a 43.7 HardHit% due to how poorly he started. It is interesting to note his velocity is up nearly a mph over his last six starts to 94 with improved pitch modeling grades by either system. Things seem to be moving forward, just slowly.

When Blake Snell is rolling, you probably don’t care that he walks a few too many batters, but despite allowing two runs over his last 18 innings, he’s struck out just eight of his last 48 batters after whiffing 10 Blue Jays. The good news is that he’s had at least a 13.4 SwStr% in five of six starts, despite the 22.2 K% and 11.1 K-BB%. The ERA is below two only because five of his 12 runs have been unearned. Snell has allowed just five barrels with a 33.3 HardHit% and my hit his stride in time for the post-season, but he's not really there yet.

I’m not really on either of these pitchers for daily fantasy purposes. Gallen because of the matchup and Snell due to the price in a marginal matchup at best. However, despite the Dodgers having every edge except defense and base running, I thing +164 is a bit much here.

Orioles @ Giants

Isn’t just like Dean “Barrels” Kremer to give you a few starts of hope before the Astros crushed three home runs and FIVE barrels against him last time out. I can’t rag on him too hard. The 8.4% Barrels/BBE overall are league average and the 35.5 HardHit% is great. Even the 14.2 K-BB% is a career high, I just still have a hard time trusting him. Even with a 3.83 ERA that’s the only estimator more than one-fifth of a run removed from his 4.19 ERA.

Speaking of pitchers I have trust issues with, Robbie Ray walked four of the 23 Brewers he faced last time out, while striking out ZERO/NONE/ZILCH! His walk rate is up to 9.4% with just a 14.9 K-BB% and 9.3% Barrels/BBE (44.2 HardHit%), BUT the park continues to give him relevance. I’m not buying the 2.93 ERA at all (.249 BABIP, 80.2 LOB%). The park doesn’t have that kind of magic, but there have been a ton of strikeouts in recent Baltimore lineups against LHP (seven of nine projected 25+ K% vs southpaws).

The park gives Kremer some relevance too. Below $9K in a decent matchup, he may be a solid value (for you, never me). I have Ray just barely behind Skenes and ahead of Kirby in a great park and high upside spot.

We’ll pick up with more daily fantasy notes from here in the afternoon.