Monday 8/25 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Red Sox @ Orioles

Our only uncertain spot on the board, the Red Sox have mentioned that they’ll figure out Monday after Sunday with Richard Fitts the favorite if he doesn’t have to pitch out of the pen and then Kyle Harrison if he does. With an 11.9 K-BB%, 12.7% Barrels/BBE and 49.2 HardHit%, Fitts has a 4.83 ERA that’s a full run above his pitch modeling, half a run above his contact neutral estimators and about three-quarters of a run below his contact inclusive estimators.

Tomo Sugano does not have a single estimator below four and a half.

Rays @ Guardians

No, you perv! I’m talking about the pitching matchup in Cleveland on Monday. Ian (not Bob) Seymour will be making his first major league starts, but worked at least three innings in each of his last two starts with a high of 66 pitches and could go four or even five with any efficiency here. Even if we’re expecting some regression as he’s further stretched out, Seymour’s 3.86 ERA is above all estimators except for some really poor pitch modeling and that’s mostly on the fastball (31%, 40 PitchingBot grade, 90 Pitching+).

Tanner Bibee has allowed exactly four runs in five straight starts (though two were unearned in one of those) and five runs in the start preceding this run. In fact, he’s allowed four or five runs in nine of his last 11. He did boost his K-BB for a few starts mid-season, but over his last nine starts his 13.7% mark matches his season 14.1% rate with just one start above 16%. It’s all been incredibly bland and to make matters worse, his contact profile has been declining as well (9.7% Barrels/BBE, 41.7 HardHit% last nine).

We could have some pitcher friendly weather (below 70) in a pitcher friendly Cleveland park with the Guardians in their worse split in a park that naturally hurts RHBs. Even if I wipe out Seymour’s small sample and make him even with Bibee around four, the Rays have a substantial offensive edge here, along with the second best bullpen estimators in baseball over the last month. The Guardians have been just five spots lower, but that’s also nearly two-thirds of a run. Seymour may end up being not all that as well….see more of him, but from what we do see here, I don’t think the Rays should even be the dog here (+129). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Braves @ Marlins

Spencer Strider has allowed 20 runs over his last 11.2 innings with a 9.2 K-BB%, 30.6 GB%, 15.7% Barrels/BBE and 52.9 HardHit%. His velocity is up half a mph over this span, but even 96.1 mph fastballs are not Spencer Strider and continue to grade marginally at best (55 PB, 97 P+ last three starts) with the slider only slightly better (51, 110). The funny thing is, pitch modeling is much higher on him over these three starts where he’s been mauled than they were previously. When you have just two mediocre pitches, batters can wait on whichever one they want. Strider still has some contact neutral estimators below four, but just barely.

Edward Cabrera fell back into old habits, walking three Guardians two starts back (five runs), but bounced right back to one walk last time out against the Cardinals. He has walked three twice over his last nine starts, but has just 10 walks in total over that span. As I was saying, he got right back on track against the Cardinals, who scored six times against Cabrera…what? Well, just four earned. Still! Listen, he struck out six of 26 without a barrel and a 33 HardHit%. Seems completely fluky with a .611 BABIP. Pitch modeling is not in love with Cabrera either, but additional estimators range from a 3.45 dERA to a 3.85 xERA with his 3.52 ERA tucked right in there. In fact, his worst non-pitch modeling estimator is equal to Strider’s best.

We’re really making the Braves road favorites here (Marlins +104). Strider has been legitimately bad, while Cabrera has been legitimately good. Both teams have the same wRC+ against RHP and even if I’m willing to give the Braves the edge there, Miami has the better defense, half run better bullpen estimators over the last 30 days and better base running.

Nationals @ Yankees

Brad Lord has posted a respectable 12 K-BB% with a 61.2 GB% to circumnavigate a 47.8 HardHit% over his last four starts, resulting in 10 runs over 22 innings, against three likely NL playoff teams all at home and one in San Francisco.

Cam Schlittler struck out a career high eight of 23 Rays last time out over 6.2 one-hit, shutout innings in Tampa last time out. He threw the fastball 66.3% in that start, but elevated it, while allowing secondaries to do work downstairs. That’s the key, as the fastball received only average grades in the start, but the cutter (11.6%, 80 PB, 155 P+), finally correctly classified by Statcast, was off the charts.

We dig into the daily fantasy board starting here and a few words before elaborating on this particular game (Lord Schlittler is another tremendous matchup name too). Glance down to the last graphic on the board and see that we have Skubal, deGrom and Greene all on the board with tremendous pitch modeling and all producing like Cy Young contenders. Gonna be a great slate, except it might actually be an extremely frustrating one and you’ll see why a bit later.

For this particular start, I have some interest in Schlittler at a reasonable price, within $400 of $8K on either site, as he begins to show the upside that makes him a 50 Future Value prospect (Fangraphs) and the projected Washington lineup (a very young, chase happy lineup) features five batters above a 24 K% vs RHP this year. However, Schlittler is a bit outside my top five overall arms. While a 50 FV is a strong prospect, there are still some flaws to work out here.

Twins @ Blue Jays

Three unearned runs with a 53.8 GB% and .417 BABIP against Joe Ryan in his last start knocked him out in the fifth. That and his only barrel left the park, while striking out six of 20 batters with a single walk. He still allowed two earned runs or less for the ninth time in 10 starts. I think he’s done enough work that I don’t have to tell you Ryan is a tremendous pitcher anymore (23.2 K-BB%, 3.20 SIERA to 3.60 xFIP estimator range), but he does have some issues in the contact profile (36.6 GB%, 11.1% Barrels/BBE), which probably made it maddening when he gets the ground balls and they don’t convert them like last time.

Since posting a 26.2 K-BB% over six starts, starting with his second back from the IL, Max Scherzer has dropped down to 6.5% over his last three without one of those starts reaching eight percent. Sure, the Dodgers and Cubs in the first two of those, but his worse mark of the three against the Pirates last time out. His Pitching+ (104 season) is down to 97 over these three starts, over which Scherzer has generated just a 10 SwStr%. Scherzer threw just 43 innings last year and is up to 60 (plus the various rehab starts). Could the 41 year-old pitcher be dealing with some fatigue here?

We don’t play daily fantasy pitchers against the Blue Jays as a rule and even if Vlad remains out, it’s still a contact prone lineup with maybe two guys above an 18 K% vs RHP. I’m backing off on Scherzer due to recent outings as well. In fact, the Twins, who really haven’t suffered offensively from the loss of Correa, might have some value at +118 here, especially if Vlad is out again, but maybe we keep it to half a unit until we find out.

Phillies @ Mets

Cristopher Sanchez has gone at least six innings in 14 straight starts (13 QS), averaging seven innings per start over this stretch. His K-BB is up to 20.6% with a 56.4 GB% and estimators capped at a 3.12 Bot ERA. This is a legitimate Cy Young contender.

Coming off one of his best starts of the season against the Braves, Kodai Senga followed it up with a better performance than the results suggested in Washington (five runs in five innings). It’s hard to look at the pitch modeling with him because PitchingBot ignores the Ghost Fork, while Pitching+ calls it a splitter. I will note some concern though, with Senga starting his first game on four days rest this season. The Mets have tried to keep him on every sixth day, like he pitched in Japan. I don’t know if this will lead to ineffectiveness of an early hook or nothing at all.

Let’s start by nothing that these are the two hottest offenses in the league. This is a pitcher’s park and Sanchez is my number four guy overall (with a few caveats) and perhaps too costly for this matchup, while Senga may be one of the worst values on the board. I also lean towards the Phillies F5 (-130), as they seem to have just about every edge here, especially with the Mets in their worse split against LHP.

Royals @ White Sox

Noah Cameron’s 2.53 ERA is mostly a function of his .237 BABIP and 86.1 LOB%. His 12.5 K-BB% suggests a much more average pitcher, while the 5.0% Barrels/BBE and 37.6 HardHit% boost his xERA to a very respectable 3.41, nearly half a run below all other estimators, but still nearly a run above actual results. White Sox bats have been hot and don’t really strike out a ton against LHP much anymore.

After a four start span where Shane Smith threw a total of 274 pitches (68.5 per start), the White Sox let him get 92 deep against the Tigers and then throw a season high 101 pitches in Atlanta last time out. The results were not great with just four strikeouts, two home runs and a 57.1 HardHit%, but maybe they figure the conservation effort has already played it’s part? Smith posted a 24.5 K-BB% over his last three shortened starts, but just 8.5% over his last two and 11.9% on the season.

While I will say that Cameron is my fifth or sixth best arm (the White Sox still aren’t a particularly difficult matchup), I have no interest in either of these daily fantasy arms. However, the pitchers have similar estimators and both teams have a 93 wRC+ against L/RHP, while being particularly hot over the last week. The Royals certainly have the better defense, but only a slightly better bullpen and have the worse projected base running lineup. If we pull bullpens out of the picture, I don’t have the White Sox as large as +120 F5 dogs at home here.

Diamondbacks @ Brewers

Eduardo Rodriguez continues to feast of famine. Two starts back at Coors, he feasted. Catching the Guardians in their lesser split at home last time out was famine. While his 5.40 ERA is at least half a run above all estimators that run only as low as a 4.27 xERA and dERA, he’s unpredictable from start to start, but does have a reverse split, so it’ll be interesting to see what the Brewers do with that.

There have been several articles written wondering how Brandon Woodruff seems to be thriving with reduced stuff and whether it’s sustainable or not because it’s not a BABIP or strand rate thing entirely. I mean, .202 and 92.2%, but also a 26.2 K-BB% and 34.7 HardHit%. He has walked five of his last 39 though and allowed a season high three runs at Wrigley last time out, where he went a season high 94 pitches the start after going a season low 64 against the Pirates. Makes sense to save his bullets for the big guns, but what does that mean here?

I grade Woodruff very similarly to guys like Cameron and Scherzer. Maybe the fifth, sixth or seventh best arm on the board, but clearly behind the top four. I’m not sure what he’s doing is sustainable. He’s not in a great matchup. And his workload may be limited. E-Rod’s volatility may have some value at a low price.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Pirates @ Cardinals

In his second start of the season, Johan Oviedo impressively struck out six of 19 Blue Jays with a 13.6 SwStr% and needed just 75 pitches to do it. I can’t see him going much past 80-85 here after just 44 in his first start. He’s also walked four of the 27 batters he’s faced.

Four straight outings of exactly six innings for Michael McGreevy, three straight quality starts, but only one with fewer than three runs. So, just four of his 14 barrels have left the park, but he still has a 4.42 ERA that’s within a quarter of a run of non-FIP, non-pitch modeling estimators, which are below four. They both suggests there’s some upside beyond the actual results (more so the pitch modeling, as the FIP stuff is a bit fluky).

Both of these pitchers are interesting low priced arms. Oviedo because of the upside he shows agains the most contact prone lineup in the league, McGreevy almost entirely because of the great matchup.

Angels @ Rangers

Jose Soriano actually has a pretty respectable 15.6 K-BB% over his last six starts, mostly because he’s dropped his walk rate to 6.1% (10.1% season). Thus, he has gone at least six innings in the four starts he’s allowed two runs or less in, allowing 12 runs over 9.2 innings in the other two. While Soriano also has a 64.4 GB% over this stretch, he’s allowed 10.5% Barrels/BBE with an outrageous 54.3 HardHit%. I’ll be honest. I never know what to think about this guy and neither do estimators (3.27 dERA – 4.32 Bot ERA).

Jacob deGrom’s did not allow a run, only allowed two hits and struck out five Blue Jays without a walk last time out. Sounds strong, right? He only faced 18 batters on 84 pitches. There was some concern about his shoulder, so they skipped his next start. On the season, deGrom’s 2.77 ERA matches his pitch modeling, but is well below additional estimators with a .236 BABIP and 84.6 LOB%, but unlike Soriano, those estimators fit into a tight band (3.22 xERA – 3.47 FIP) and if you consider 19 of his 30 barrels have left the yard and want to throw out the FIP, his next worst estimator is a 3.30 SIERA.

This is where it begins to get difficult. What are we getting out of deGrom? The Rangers wouldn’t send him out with any risk, right? But they’re also not going to overwork him. Figuring maybe 22 to 23 batters at full health, deGrom is my 1A and potentially a great value for less than $10K against a lineup that strikes out a ton. It’s such a high upside spot that the added risk hurts so much. The Angels don’t even have Schanuel to provide LHB and strikeout resistance. Also, am I seeing this price tag right for Soriano on DraftKings? $5.7K? WTF? I’m also wondering if there’s some value in the Angels at +152 with the risk of a lesser deGrom. There’s not much offensive separation and Texas’s defensive superiority is countered by the Angels having the much better bullpen recently.

Padres @ Mariners

The Padres really didn’t change much with J.P. Sears. In two starts, he was smoked in Arizona and threw a six inning, one run quality start at Petco against the Giants. He’s struck out six of 49 batters with San Diego with a perfectly league average contact profile and 13.8 K-BB% on the season. However, because he has just a 28.4 GB%, the estimators range from a 4.04 Bot ERA to a 5.46 dERA.

Written before Bryce Miller’s return from the IL…

This will be Bryce Miller’s first start in over two months. Pitching in obvious discomfort with back and elbow injuries, he ran estimators around five through 10 starts before hitting the IL. He has impressively struck out 15 of 50 with three walks, but also four home runs over three rehab starts.

Miller struck out four of 22 in Philadelphia, allowing four runs on four hits with two walks and homers on just two barrels, but an 81.3 HardHit%. The good news is that his velocity was half a mph better than any other start this year? The stuff was there. It was a tough spot in a tough park. T-Mobile allows pitchers’ stuff to play up, but did he spike some adrenaline in his first start back that he might lose here?

I’d heavily lean Padres (who have the top bullpen in baseball) if we were getting early season, pitching injured Bryce Miller. I don’t know what we’re getting here. Either way, it’s not daily fantasy relevant against the Padres. Sears is another cheap pitcher who may have some value in a great park.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Tigers @ Athletics

Tarik Skubal followed seven innings with three strikeouts with his fifth double digit strikeout effort in his last nine and ninth in his last 20. He’s also gone seven innings in three of four and five of nine. A 29 K-BB% with a 33.2 HardHit%. Do I need to go into further detail or should we just mention the elephant in the room? The park. Also, with Wilson back, the A’s will likely start two players (Hernaiz) below a 5 K% vs LHP this year and then maybe Urias at 10.4% with Rooker at 13.1%. Where did all the strikeouts in this lineup go?

I don’t know how J.T. Ginn has a 4.95 ERA/4.93 FIP with a 17.8 K-BB% and 51.5 GB%. Oh yeah, he’s still somehow allowed 11.2% Barrels/BBE and 13 of 19 have left the yard. Again, the park. However, all Ginn’s non-FIP, non-pitch modeling estimators are below four. Let’s get to that pitch modeling because he may be the most conflicting pitcher in the league with a 4.72 Bot ERA, but 111 Pitching+. The pitch they most disagree upon? The sinker (52.1%, 49 PB, 124 P+).

When have I ever endorsed both pitchers in Sacramento, but Ginn is too undervalued. He’s the cheapest pitcher on the board. Skubal is the 1B to deGrom’s 1A (unless deGrom is limited). I still think Skubal is a decent value at a price not much below $11K. That said, with comparable offenses and the A’s rocking the better bullpen by three-quarters of a run over the last month, despite the loss of Miller, we side with he large home dogs here (+190).

Reds @ Dodgers

We get Hunter Greene on this slate too, but he’s facing the Dodgers. Greene returned from the IL with six shutout innings against the Phillies (six strikeouts without a walk) and followed up with another quality start against the Angels. Yeah, three runs, but 12 strikeouts without a walk and only four hard hit batted balls. Greene has a 3.67 dERA I want to ignore because his next worst estimator is a 3.16 xFIP. His 2.63 ERA nearly matches a 2.75 xERA. The man is legit.

Emmett Sheehan is coming off his first six inning outing at Coors. Not a quality start with four runs, but he did strike out as season high seven of 25 batters. Don’t sleep on his 17 K-BB% with an average contact profile. A 4.37 dERA is his only estimator exceeding a 4.17 ERA.

Greene is my number three overall in a tough spot (again, depending upon deGrom’s health) and another solid value. Maybe the three pitchers will split ownership, all coming with some difficulty. I believe it would be easily deGrom if there weren’t health questions. We’ll see how it shakes out tomorrow after a weather update (though it could change with umpires and weather after that), but I think they’re all nearly equally usable. In fact, if the Dodgers hadn’t been getting their bullpen guys back off the IL, I’d consider siding with the Reds (+120) here, but I think we’ve already done enough damage for Monday.

We’ll pick up from here with the expanded DFS notes.