Friday 8/22 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rockies @ Pirates

Ain’t got the time to Senza today.

Everybody excited about Bubba Chandler being called up on Friday? Well, he’ll be pitching out of the bullpen. Braxton Ashford is not a bad consolation prize. He’s struck out nine of 33 in to starts, allowing two runs over 8.1 innings with more than half his contact on the ground.

Nationals @ Phillies

Three starts in, you’re still looking at pitch modeling as potentially the most reliable indicator of a young pitcher’s performance and it’s a bit conflicting. Mostly with the curveball (47 PitchingBot, 103 Pitching+).Cavalli has posted an impressive 13.1 SwStr%, but below 10% in each of his last two. Seven shutout innings against the Phillies last time out, striking out five without a walk after walking and striking out three Royals each in Kansas City, allowing four runs over five innings. Estimators average a bit better than a quarter below four and that may even be a reasonable expectation, despite the small sample.

Taijuan Walker has allowed five runs over his last 23.2 innings. Don’t fall for it. A 91.3 LOB% with a 9.4 K%. I’ll certainly buy he’s been better than last season. It would be difficult to be worse, but by either pitch modeling or actual performance estimators, he’s still a below average pitcher, around four and a half.

Astros @ Orioles

Lance McCullers Jr. faced 21 batters over five innings in his last rehab start, so at least he shouldn’t be limited, but he went down after 11 starts with estimators averaging around five with his velocity down over a mile and a half per hour from his heyday and RHBs owning a .442 wOBA,.393 xwOBA against him.

Cade Povich struckout a season high 10 of 22 Astros in his last start. It was part better command of his secondaries and part the Astros sucking lately. They came into Thursday night with a team 11 wRC+ over the last seven days, which they’re quickly rectifying against Brandon Young, who nearly no hit them last week too. That may have been the ceiling for Povich, who has only thrown six innings four times this year. His 5.59 xERA is a factor of a 49.1 HardHit% with 12.5% Barrels/BBE. Pitch modeling is below average too, but every other estimator is below four, even a 3.96 FIP with only 12 of his 29 barrels leaving the yard. If he can get a handle on the contact profile, Povich may be able to do some damage with a 17 K-BB%.

I have Povich just outside my top five with a small group of additional pitchers, but too cheap for just $6K on DraftKings, where he may be the most interesting SP2. He’s $8.2K on FanDuel, which would be borderline playable without the QS requirement.

Red Sox @ Yankees

Brayan Bello is a volatile arm, who has six quality starts in his last seven, five with two runs or less and four with more than six innings. He also has games of four and three walks in that span and just two of those starts with more than five strikeouts, but a 14.4 K-BB% during this stretch that’s a near five point improvement on his 9.7% season rate. A bunch of unearned runs (six of 52) and a slightly elevated 78.6 LOB% has his 3.23 ERA more than a run below all estimators.

Max Fried has allowed at least three runs in eight straight and only that few in one of them. He’s done that with a 10.9 K-BB% and 44.4 GB%, but much improved hard hit rate (36.8%). Head scratching, but as he was running so well early, his 3.26 ERA is now below, but within half a run of all estimators that run as high as a 3.71 Bot ERA.

Bryan Bello is at least adequately priced above $8K in Yankee Stadium. Fried is now undervalued and my top pitcher on the board. Boston bats have gone cold and the current projected lineup against Fried includes only three batters below a 26 K% against southpaws in 2025. The Red Sox also have just a 61 team wRC+ over the last week. Fried still has very good season numbers and a cost below $10K. Right now, he’s a top three value for me on FanDuel ($9.1K).

Royals @ Tigers

Ryan Bergert has struck out 15 of his last 46 batters with a 13 SwStr% (9.0% season). His velocity has dropped half a mph since the trade to the Royals, but they have him throwing more sliders and fewer fastballs. Actually, it seems to be a slider + sweeper and it’s working. That said, he has a 2.75 ERA and not a single estimator below four on the season (.224 BABIP, 83.3 LOB%).

Casey Mize allowed four runs last time out, but with a season high 10 strikeouts. He’s allowed 22 runs (20 earned) over his last 26 innings with a 19 K-BB%, but 13.3% Barrels/BBE (45.3 HardHit%).

Bergert is now interesting, but it’s not a great spot and his over-performance means his price isn’t where we want to speculate (though it’s not high by any means). He’s someone to watch for next time out if he succeeds here. Mize has turned into a nice pitcher, who is going through it right now and the current lineup the Royals are running out against RHP has an average 17.7 K% against them.

Blue Jays @ Marlins

This will be Shane Bieber’s 2025 and Blue Jays debut. There have been good reports out of his rehab outings, going as many as seven innings last time out, so he should be a full go here. Bieber struck out 16 of 65 at AAA with just two walks. He projects about a fifth of a run below four, which seems reasonable.

Striking out 18 of 68 batters with four walks, Ryan Gusto seems to have found himself a more permanent home in the Miami rotation. He has two straight quality starts. In his first start for Miami, the Marlins had him double up on his cutter usage, a season high 22.4% and halve his fastball usage (26.5%) with a few more curveballs too (21.4%). He didn’t throw another pitch more often than these three after sitting fastball heavy for most of the year. It made sense, as the fastball had some favorable metrics, but soured a bit as batters just waited on it. The cutter earned a sterling 73 PB and 120 P+ grade last time out.

Bieber has looked good and should have no limitations in an average matchup, but costs $9K. I can’t advise how to proceed there. Gusto is below $7K and interesting only for that reason on FanDuel, against the Blue Jays after two straight quality starts and some alterations that seem to have helped.

Mets @ Braves

Happy to get a chance to talk about Nolan McLean here. Please understand that I’m not comparing him to this guy because they’re completely different pitchers, but he’s the most exciting Mets’ pitching prospect to debut since Noah Syndergaard a decade ago. Unlike Thor, McLean went very secondary heavy with 26.4% sinkers and 9.9% four-seamers in his debut and there’s good reason for that. He’s a spin monster. Eno Sarris recently noting he has better pure Stuff+ ratings than some of the top pitching prospects in the game. Despite that, projections average around four and a third per nine, which I think are a bit high. He struck out eight of 21 Mariners (who strike out less on the road) in his debut, but did walk four as well. There is a chance he could lose the plate and not get as much chase, which contributed just as much to his 55.6 GB% in his first start as the strikeouts. If the Braves can sit on the 94.9 mph sinker (half a mph slower in AAA, so maybe adrenaline), well, it was one of his lesser graded pitches in his debut. If he can spin constant curves (66 PB, 134 P+) and sliders/sweepers (53, 103) while hitting the zone, look out!

In six starts for the Braves, Joey Wentz has a sub-three ERA on an 11.4 K-BB% and just 5.7% Barrels/BBE with a 39.1 HardHit%. There’s surely been BABIP luck (.224). While his Pitching+ numbers remain unchanged, the Braves have pulled more extension out of him, elevating his fastball and PitchingBot grades.

The Mets have struggled against LHP this year and have a few guys down, but have been hitting well of late and I don’t know if Wentz has the upside for this one. McLean is already near $9K, which, I really have to struggle against my fandom here, but might be too much.

Cardinals @ Rays

Miles Mikolas has a 10.9 K% over his last six starts.

Adrian Houser got smacked around in his first two starts for the Rays, but had his velocity back up to 95 mph in his last two after a first start dip and threw five shutout innings without a walk in San Francisco, while striking out six. He’s been above a 60% ground ball rate in each of his last two. This will be his first home start for the Rays and you’d understand why they’d want a guy who can keep it on the ground in that park. The only adjustment they’ve made is doubling is slider rate (22.3% from 11.5%) at the expense of a few fastballs and curves and the result has been a two point bump in SwStr% (along with the ground balls) to league average so far.

I think both of these pitchers are a bit overpriced, Houser around $8K, though the current Cardinal lineup comes with a few more strikeouts right now. Mikolas is less than $7K and still overpriced.

Twins @ White Sox

Zebby Matthews lasted only four innings last time out. He only allowed two runs, but walked four and struck out six of 21 batters. It was his third start of at least three walks, but those account for 10 of his 15 walks through 10 starts with an Ace-like 22.7 K-BB% overall. Zebby’s biggest problem has been the barrels (10.5%), more due to a 34.1 GB% than a league average 39.8 HardHit%. Even then, his pitch modeling compares favorably with some studs on this board, while his worst estimator, a 4.07 xERA, is still run below his 5.06 ERA (.368 BABIP). While Matthews hasn’t reached four innings in six starts, he’s been above 90 pitches in each of his last two, which is great news.

I want to re-reiterate (?) what I wrote right here before Aaron Civale’s last start, partially quoting what I wrote the start before…

“…you have to give him credit for his last three starts: 17.1 IP – 1 R (0 ER) – 27.9 K-BB% - 21.1 HardHit%. The only significant pitch usage alteration has been more curveballs (24.1% from around 15%). The pitch owns a 68 PB grade and 115 P+ over this span. I’m not saying he’s going to continue it. Almost all of his estimators still exceed four and a half, but his 3.85 xERA is actually below his 3.99 ERA.”

In a way, Civale did continue his fine work, striking out six of 20 Guardians with two walks and just four hard hit batted balls (36.4%). That’s quite the start, right? In another way, well a .727 BABIP, 18.2 LOB% and nine earned runs. His xERA dropped to 3.97.

Civale struck out just three of 25 Royals last time out, forgivable. He did throw the worst version of a quality start. His xERA did rise to 4.21 with that start, still his best estimator.

Maybe Civale is cheap enough to consider in an SP2 spot for $6.3K, but I love Matthews here in a strong spot. He’s already generally undervalued and is a top five arm for me overall (admittedly #5). I really like his value within $300 of $8K on either site. That BABIP’s gotta give.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Guardians @ Rangers

Slade Cecconi has allowed 27 runs (24 earned) over his last 35 innings (six starts) with a 7.8 K-BB% (13% season), but does have three quality starts in there, two of seven or more innings. However, four of those starts have been a K-BB of 6.1% or less, while he’s allowed a 50% hard hit rate with an atrocious 13.7% Barrels/BBE over this stretch.

With an 18.6 K% over his last four starts, Nolan Eovaldi’s 21 K-BB% has now dropped below his previous career high of 22.6% in 2020 and is tied for his second best mark the next year (20.9%). However, he’s walked just three batters and thrown at least seven innings in three of his last four starts. His 1.76 ERA is still marred by a .243 BABIP and 87 LOB%, but you already knew he wasn’t THAT good. I get the 4.05 Bot ERA from the standpoint of velocity drop, but think I stand with the 104 Pitching+ here. Aside from that, his worst estimator is a 3.20 SIERA. He’s still having a career year, even if the ERA is BS.

Cecconi has dropped to a price where it’s not terrible to chase a QS in a favorable matchup in a pitcher friendly park. Eovaldi is my current number two overall and close enough to Fried that it could flip with the right information on Friday afternoon. That said, at a price above $10K because of that ERA, I find him to be merely an average value, a bit better on FanDuel.

Giants @ Brewers

Carson Whisenhunt has struck out 12 of 63 batters with seven walks and five home runs on eight barrels (18.2%) with a 52.3 HardHit%.

Jose Quintana has five quality starts in his last 10 and has struck out more than five just twice with a season high of seven.

The Giants are a great matchup for LHP in terms of run prevention and strikeouts. Six in their projected lineup exceed a 26.5 K% against LHP with another (Schmitt) at 24.7%. I could see playing Quintana for that in an SP2 spot for $7.3K, but you still can’t expect him to blow up the slate. You’re playing the floor, not the ceiling.

Cubs @ Angels

We have a pair of TBDs here, so I’m rolling with Roster Resource. I hope they’re right about Brown here because he has some upside (17.7 K-BB%) and his biggest problem is LHBs (.390 wOBA, .387 xwOBA with 13 of his 17 home runs). The Angels have the light power Schanuel and Moncada. The only estimator within a run and a half of Brown’s 5.91 ERA is a 4.65 xERA. Contact neutral estimators are below four.

I honestly don’t care whether it’s Tyler Anderson or not here, although it would be easier to not change it.

Brown has the upside to be a top five arm (maybe not with workload) and great value for just $6.6K on DraftKings. This is about as good a spot as you’ll find for him. Schanuel is the only projected Angel below a 24.7 K% vs RHP.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Reds @ Diamondbacks

Zach Littell’s first start for the Reds was a seven inning quality start with a season high eight strikeouts. In fact, the seven he struck out in his first start of the season was his previous season high. He got beat up in his second start, but came back with another quality start in his last start, but has struck out exactly three in each of the last two. His 12.9 K-BB% is mostly built on elite control. He’s struck out just 16.9% of batters faced this season with poor pitch modeling and a below average contact profile. The only positive thing he does is not walk people. A .259 BABIP and 84.3 LOB% are responsible for Littell’s 3.52 ERA being more than two-thirds of a run below every estimator.

Ryne Nelson has allowed nine runs over his last 9.2 innings without walking anyone and a league average contact profile. He has an 18.2 K-BB% over his last 10 starts and has been above 20% in six of those, including three straight until his last outing at Coors.

I’m really not on either of these pitchers in a hitter friendly park (roof already confirmed closed), though I can see an argument for Nelson, considering his recent work). That said, and the Arizona offense has recently slowed to league average over the last week, but still has some interesting bats against RHP. Littell is doing it with smoke and mirrors with a bottom quarter of the league bullpen behind him. Let’s start (and maybe end) the day with the Diamondbacks to beat their 4.5 (-110) run total. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Dodgers @ Padres

Blake Snell has started five games for the Dodgers. We’ve seen his upside in two of them (18 strikeouts, three walks). We’ve seen his downside in the other three (10 walks, seven strikeouts). He has one start of more than five innings. He completed six shutout against the Padres last time out and struck out three on a season high 96 pitches.

Yu Darvish struck out five Dodgers last time out and has a 24.7 K-BB% with a 28 HardHit% over his last four starts. The Dodgers also tagged him for four runs last time out in just four innings. Darvish hasn’t hit 85 pitches yet this season.

A high risk matchup for Darvish with a cap below 85 pitches? But he’s just $6.2K on DraftKings in a pitcher friendly park. Mayyyyybe? Snell is one of the few pitchers I might consider against a projected Padres’ lineup that doesn’t include a batter above a 20.8 K% vs LHP this year, BUT only a Snell who’s been rolling with a high probability of hitting his ceiling. We’re not sure which version we’re getting yet with just five starts and have seen a bit of both.

Athletics @ Mariners

Luis Morales is a decently regarded prospect with a 45 Future Value grade with a fairly wide range of outcomes. He’s been a 27-32 K% guy in the high minors with a walk rate bordering on double digits. In the majors, he’s struck out nine of 43, but also walked eight with a 6.6 SwStr% that’s half of what it was at AAA, a 4.67 Bot ERA and 94 Pitching+. There is some love for the slider (62 PB, 141 P+), but he doesn’t seem to have a third pitch.

RR lists Bryan Woo. MLB.com has TBD, which is concerning. Woo has gone at least six innings in a major league high 24 starts this year. Every single one. That’s 19 quality starts with a 20.8 K-BB% and the best home park in baseball, roof open or closed.

Woo would be my number three overall, but not a great value in the most negative run environment in baseball. The A’s are a dangerous matchup, but not without strikeout potential. Woo is the most expensive pitcher on the slate. I’d rather play him on FD than DK, but have him slightly behind Eovaldi, who is $100 less. Morales hasn’t shown any of his upside at the major league level yet, but sure, I can see the attractiveness of this spot at a low price if you’re willing to embrace the significant risk.

We'll fill out the daily fantasy notes a bit more on Friday afternoon and maybe find something else for Action Network with three games still off the board.