Wednesday 8/20 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Blue Jays @ Pirates

Still at 15.5% on the season, Chris Bassitt has just a 3 K-BB% over his last three starts.

Johan Oviedo started a game on August fourth and faced eight batters. That’s his season. He has since struck out 15 of 33 AAA batters. Projections are around four and a half.

Mariners @ Phillies

After getting thumped by the Mets last time out, LHBs have a .422 wOBA against Luis Castillo away from T-Mobile. Good day game spot to give Realmuto a break and add a LH bat.

Amazingly, Jesus Luzardo posted his 11^th straight start with either seven (7x) or four (4x) strikeouts.

Astros @ Tigers

A second straight start with less than half his contact on the ground, but with only three of his four runs earned, Framber Valdez posted another 6.2 innings quality start against the Orioles. He also bounced back from walking four Yankees the start before with one walk and six strikeouts. Valdez’s 16.2 K-BB% is the exact same performance as last year with his ground ball rate (59.5%) only down 1.1 points with a bit more hard contact (46.2%). His 3.01 ERA matches his 3.01 FIP because only one-third of his barrels have left the park. Additional estimators run as high as a 3.63 xERA.

As mentioned last time out, the Tigers don’t seem to have changed a thing about Charlie Morton. In three starts for his new team, he’s posted a pair of quality starts with a total of one run allowed. In between, the Angels got him for six with a 70% hard hit rate and both of their barrels leaving the yard, but he also struck out 10. Seems about right for that lineup. Morton has a solid 17 K-BB% since being ousted from the Baltimore rotation initially, but also just 12.1% over his last nine starts, having been above 20% in three of those starts, but below 10% in five. It’s been a rocky season and while estimators are well below his 5.20 ERA with 18 of 28 barrels leaving the yard, non-FIP ones range from a 4.17 Bot ERA to a 4.40 xERA. That’s a usable back end starter for most teams.

To be clear, I have Valdez a full run better than Morton, but the Tigers are at home with every other edge here (offense, defense, bullpen, base running – and it’s all posted on this page) and in just about all cases by a wide margin. I really don’t think the road team should be favored here (DET +110). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Guardians @ Diamondbacks

Twenty-four year old Parker Messick is Clevelands fourth best prospect (FG) with a strong 50 Future Value grade. The young lefty has an 18.8 K-BB% at AAA, but is up to 26.3% over his last five starts. Fangraphs adjusted Messick as middle of the pack top 100 prospect, right behind Cam Schlittler, among the high floor mid-rotation group. Projections average a bit below four and a half.

Brandon Pfaadt had a five start 22.8 K-BB% stretch, but is back down to 8.7% over his last five and 6.5% over his last three.

Cardinals @ Marlins

Andre Pallante has allowed 30 runs (29 earned) over his last 34.1 innings with a 7.6 K-BB% (7.9% season), 51.7 GB% and just 33.6 HardHit% and that includes seven shutout innings against these Marlins. He has a .342 BABIP and 54 LOB% over this span.

Sandy Alcantara may be coming off his best start of the season. Up to 98.2 mph (97.5 season), he allowed a run over six innings at Fenway, striking out seven with just one walk. It was his best K-BB% game of the season with a 53.8 GB%. He finally has something to build on. We’ll see.

Mets @ Nationals

Kodai Senga is coming off his best start since coming off the IL. He struck out seven of 23 Braves with a 14 SwStr%, but just as importantly, walked only one (walked 16 of previous 98 batters since return). Elevated zone and first strike rates allowed him to get more chase (37%) against the Braves. I don’t really buy into his pitch modeling, as PitchingBot doesn’t bother classifying his Ghost Fork, while Pitching+ calls it a Splitter (110 grade).

Since moving to the rotation again: 26 IP – 103 BF – 24 H – 8 R/ER – 2 HR – 10.7 K-BB% - 60.8 GB% - 32.5 HardHit%.

White Sox @ Braves

Martin Perez struck out nine of 22 Twins in a March 31^st start. Since then, he’s struck out 13 of 76 with 10 walks, nine barrels, a 49.1 HardHit% and four months on the IL.

Hurston Waldrep has faced 22 batters in each of his three outings and thoroughly impressed. He throws all four fastballs plus a slider and curve all between 11.5% and 28.1% of the time, the splitter the only pitch he’s thrown more than one-fifth of the time. The four-seam and curve grade below average, but all four of his other pitches exceed a 110 Pitching+. He’s struck out 17 batters with five walks and nearly half his contact on the ground (48.8%), allowing just a single barrel and 31.8 HardHit%. Waldrup posted a similar 18.6 K-BB% over his last three AAA starts after posting a single digit mark over his first 16 starts.

I was about to jump the Braves F5 (-145), but it magically jumped itself to -166 as I was logging into DraftKings. I can’t give you any FanDuel recommendations because it’s after 10 pm ET and they still haven’t uploaded their slate, but Waldrup is my number three overall pitcher on Wednesday night and a decent value at $8.7K in a strong matchup.  

Yankees @ Rays

Cam Schlittler recorded his only sixth inning out in his first start of the season and has walked a few too many (10.8%) on his way to a 12.3 K-BB% over six starts with a similarly high barrel rate (9.6%) with a league average ground ball rate and 41.2 HardHit%. He doesn’t pitch deep into games with all estimators exceeding his 3.94 ERA, except for some impressive pitch modeling. It’s not like pitch counts are keeping him from going deeper either, as he’s been above 85 pitches in five straight.

Speaking of limited workloads, Drew Rasmussen has been so efficient that he’s completed six innings in under 80 pitches in two straight starts. He’s been extremely effective (17 K-BB%, 50.2 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE) with some BABIP (.253) and strand rate (81.1%) fortune.

Limited workloads in a somewhat difficult park. It hasn’t played as hitter friendly as expected, but has been power friendly (more for RHBs shockingly), but still a spot where I want to start a pair of guys I can only expect five innings from without elite upside. It’s not like Rasmussen is cheap either.

Rangers @ Royals

Oh, cool. Jacob deGrom just turned into a TBD. He was my top overall arm, but too expensive to play against a lineup that refuses to strike out.

We all know Noah Cameron’s 2.47 ERA is BS with estimators starting at 3.40 (xERA) and running as high as a 4.61 Bot ERA. Cameron is one of the few pitchers on the board below, who’s matchup rating gets worse with pitch modeling included. The 12.6 K-BB% is league average. He’s allowed just 4.9% Barrels/BBE, which seems slightly fluky with a league average ground ball and hard contact rate. The .236 BABIP and 89 LOB% are doing a lot of heavy lifting. He could eventually settle in as a fine back end crafty lefty as a poor man’s Jordan Montgomery or David Peterson.

That said….TADA! Cameron is my new top arm for Wednesday night. The Rangers are awful and add more strikeouts against LHP. It’s that kind of slate. In fact, I have him essentially tied with Waldrup, our new 1B. However, Cameron is $9K and I’m not sure that’s much of a value.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Athletics @ Twins

Before J.T. Ginn’s last start a week ago…

J.T. Ginn struck out a season high nine of 20 Orioles last time out. He’s now carrying an 18.4 K-BB% to go along with a 53.8 GB%. I don’t know how he’s still allowing 11% Barrels/BBE. I mean, more than one-third of his fly balls have been barrels, but these are otherwise near studly numbers.

He lasted two innings against the Rays. Three ground balls, line drives, fly balls and strikeouts each. I mean, yeah, the .625 BABIP hurt with only four hard hit batted balls of the nine and it was at home with a 30.3% strand rate. The overall numbers are still strong (18.1 K-BB%, 52.6 GB%), the non-FIP, non-pitch modeling estimators are very convincingly just below three and a half. Maybe sustainable, maybe not. Large disagreement between Pitching Bot (4.71) and Pitching+ (111).

Bailey Ober lost that mph he gained in his return from the IL in his second start back. He didn’t’ walk anyone and struck out four of 20 Tigers with just two hard hit batted balls and has a 24.2 HardHit% in two starts back. He did look better here, but the continued velocity around 90 mph makes me think he may still be pitching injured. Not that I’m a doctor or anything.

If you think Ober is healthy, nicely priced at $7.1K here. Ginn might be my favorite value on the board with that terrible park in Sacramento bringing his price down below $6K with 13 of his 17 barrels leaving the yard. I’m going to side with the A’s again here (+112), but keep it to just half a unit with the uncertainty around Ober. The A’s still have bullpen and offensive edges and at worst, an even pitching matchup.

Brewers @ Cubs

Jacob Misiorowski got a short rehab start at the major league level. Shorter than anyone wanted because five of the 11 Reds he faced scored. He walked three. He struck out three. His velocity was fine, but just a 3.7 SwStr%. It was essentially a rehab start though. I’d expect him to be a bit sharper here, but he still hasn’t gone past 80 pitches in five of his last six. At 54 pitches last time out, maybe he gets through five innings with some efficiency here. More likely, four. The 35.7 K% and 4.9% Barrels/BBE are awesome. The latter maybe not sustainable with a 38.9 GB% and HardHit%. The 12.1 BB% will shorten outings. He has better pitch modeling when including command than deGrom and Ohtani.

Colin Rea’s 3.99 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 4.48 xFIP to a 4.77 dERA and xERA. It’s a little bit of everything. He has just an 11.2 K-BB% that’s close to his 10.2% Barrels/BBE with a 38.7 GB%. It’s not unreasonable that 19 of them have left the yard. The 78.1 LOB% is a bit high for his 17.6 K%. Rea has gone beyond five innings in just one of his six starts.

For daily fantasy purposes…it depends. Temperatures around 70 with a decent wind, but in what direction? Early totals make me suspect it may be blowing in. That makes Rea a decent value at $6.7K. The problem with Misiorowski is that he costs $9.3K for maybe just four innings. That said, that’s most of the F5, where the Brewers are just -124 favorites (too low) considering the Cubs really have no edges here. This matchup really is a microcosm of the entire slate. Pure MisiRea. 

Dodgers @ Rockies

After throwing a season high 54 pitches in his previous start, Shohei Ohtani jumped to 80 pitches against the Angels last time out. That got him through 19 batters, but just 4.1 innings, one more out that his previous start and also a new season high. Are the Dodgers doing this by innings rather than pitches? That would be insane. What happened here? He’s struck out 15 of his last 33 batters now. Is he a full go here? Five innings no matter what? Or will the Dodgers decrease his pitch count here because they only let him go 80 because the Padres were catching up? With a 33.3 K%, 5.2 BB%, 3.4% Barrels/BBE and 32.2 HardHit%, Ohtani has been awesome. Will that continue in longer outings? Probably not to that effect.

No reason to even speculate on Tanner Gordon, who’s best non-FIP estimator is a 4.70 xFIP.

I have no idea where to rank Ohtani because I don’t know what the Dodgers are going to pull here. With no reason for this thought process and a full week in between, I somehow suspect they may decrease from 80 pitches here. He still may get through five innings and it’s the Rockies, even though it’s Coors. It’s also a garbage slate. Maybe he is the top pitcher. Maybe everybody is playing him hoping so on this slate. I don’t have a real honest ranking for him. That said, and I’ve learned from the last two days, I’m on the Rockies here. We already won the first game and are playing with house money these last two. The Dodgers still have a poor defense and bullpen and that bullpen will be pitching at least four innings (unless Ohtani is perfect). However, with he line having increased in each of the last two days, I’m waiting for this one to pop at least +250.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Reds @ Angels

Nick Martinez was smoked for six runs and two home runs by the Brewers last time out. He struck out one with a 1.6 SwStr%. His 11.3 K-BB% is more in line with his career rate (9.6%) than his 17.2% last year. Estimators are a bit below his 4.73 ERA (67.4 LOB%), but only a 3.94 Bot ERA is below four.

With a 15.1 K-BB% that’s higher than his 14.3% season rate, Yusei Kikuchi has allowed 25 runs (24 earned) over his last 40.2 innings. A good chunk of that is a fluky .361 BABIP with a reasonable contact profile, but he’s only missing bats at around a league average rate (23.1 K%, 10.2 SwStr%).

The Angels are a funny team. They have power and play in a power friendly park for RHBs, but their predominantly right-handed lineup and high strikeout potential puts a lot of moderately or low priced pitchers on your daily fantasy board against them. Martines is no different here. Kikuchi is an overvalued arm. He still has walk and barrel rates near 10% for the season and I don’t understand how the Reds can be so bad against LHP with an almost entirely right-handed lineup. Still, I don’t want to pay $8.5K for Kikuchi.

Giants @ Padres

Landon Roupp faced 15 batters (66 pitches) in his return from the IL. He even struck five of them out. Five of them also scored. I suspect he’ll remain slightly limited here.

J.P. Sears finally got out of that park in Sacramento, but pitched his first game for the Padres in another hitter friendly park in Arizona and was so bad (5 IP, 5 R) he was shipped out. His first AAA start…in Arizona and he struck out three of 21 batters. The biggest problem is that 24 of 33 barrels have left the yard, matching his 5.00 FIP to his 5.12 ERA. Even though Petco is more power friendly to RHBs than most people think, he should be able to move closer to some of his estimators in the lower fours (4.45 SIERA, 4.17 xERA, 4.02 Bot ERA). I mean, look what the park did for Pivetta after pitching a few seasons at Fenway.

You’re not playing a limited pitcher against the Padres. Virtually no upside for Roupp. Sears may be my number three overall in a great matchup now and perhaps the top value on the board at $6.5K (DK).

This is generally where I'd say we pick up here and beef up the daily fantasy notes, but I really don't want to think about this particular slate anymore. We'll see.