Tuesday 8/19 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Astros @ Tigers

While two of his last three starts have been quality starts with just two runs allowed overall, Hunter Brown has just a 14.5 K-BB% and 39.1 GB% over his last seven starts.

Tarik Skubal broke a streak of three straight double digit strikeout road starts, when he struck out just three of 28 Twins last time out. He did post an 11.1 SwStr% in that start and has only been in single digits twice this year.

Blue Jays @ Pirates

Three straight quality starts for Max Scherzer with a total of four runs allowed, but and 11.7 K-BB% over that span brings him down to 18.5% on the season. Scherzer has just a 25.3 GB%, allowing 11.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 35.3 HardHit%.

The Pirates failed to sell high on Mitch Keller, who has allowed 16 runs over his last 16.2 innings (four starts) with a 7.3 K-BB%.

Cardinals @ Marlins

Mike McGreevy has gone at least six innings in five of seven starts, but with just three quality starts and at least three runs allowed five times.

After walking three Guardians last time out, 12 of Edward Cabrera’s 15 walks over his last 10 starts have come in just four of those starts (three walks each). He’s allowed two runs or less in eight of those 10.

Mets @ Nationals

David Peterson has multiple walks in eight of his last 10 starts with a 10.3 BB% and just an 8.7 K-BB% over that span. His ability to keep the ball on the ground (55.7% this year), has allowed him to limit barrels (6.5%), despite a 46.1 HardHit% and even erase some of those walks. However, the increased walks, along with the elevated hard hit rate has resulted in 30 runs (28 earned) over his last 56.2 innings. Peterson still only has a pair of estimators exceeding four, which are a 4.28 xERA and pitch modeling.

Jake Irvin is down to a 7.7 K-BB%, well below the 11.7% Barrels/BBE he allows with a 47.3 HardHit%. His 3.87 Bot ERA conflicts with a 96 Pitching+ (the Bot loves the sinker & curve, which make up half his pitches), but Irvin’s next best estimator is a 4.70 dERA. They run as high as a matching 5.40 FIP and xERA. LHBs have a .372 wOBA and .400 xwOBA against him this year and the Mets could jam as many as seven into the lineup if they wish.

Initially, I was considering just the Mets over, but 5.5 is a bit high. Peterson has been struggling, as has the Mets pen. With both teams fielding poor defenses and the Nationals owning near bottom of the league pen estimators over the last 30 days, this game should reach it’s total (9 -105). I’m keeping it half a unit for now because of cooler weather in the east with the hurricane passing over the Atlantic. It doesn’t look too bad now though. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Mariners @ Phillies

This will be Bryce Miller’s first start in over two months. Pitching in obvious discomfort with back and elbow injuries, he ran estimators around five through 10 starts before hitting the IL. He has impressively struck out 15 of 50 with three walks, but also four home runs over three rehab starts.

Not only are Cristpher Sanchez’s rate stats amazing (19.9 K-BB%, 57 GB%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE), but he’s gone at least seven innings with two earned or less in nine of 24 starts.

Orioles @ Red Sox

Tomo Sugano has allowed a single run in three of his last four starts with a respectable 14 K-BB%, but just 10% over his last three starts. He’s struck out eight twice this year, but otherwise no more than five.

Walker Buehler went six innings for a second straight start, but failed to post his fourth quality start in six outings with four runs allowed. He allowed just four hits, but also four walks and two home runs on three barrels. He’s down to a 5.9 K-BB% on the season.

These are generally not the daily fantasy pitchers you’re looking for, especially Sugano. Walker is at least very cheap and should have some strikeouts in the Baltimore lineup. Temperatures are also projected to be in the 60s at Fenway on Tuesday night again.

White Sox @ Braves

Shane Smith has shown some signs of life for the first time since June, striking out 13 of his last 40 batters with a single run over 10 innings. In fact, he’d gone six straight starts without reaching five innings prior to this present two game stretch. It may have been part conservation, but he was also pitching poorly. The White Sox let him thrown 92 pitches last time out though. While Smith’s 4.01 ERA is below all of his estimators, none reach four and a half.

Bryce Elder posted his second quality start of more than six innings in his last three starts last time out and his 15.4 K-BB% last time out against the Mets was only his second start above 12 in his last 10 starts. He still has a single digit K-BB on the season (9.6%) with a 45.8 HardHit%, while he only has one estimator (4.18 xFIP) better than Smith’s worst (4.41 xFIP).

This is going to be conflicting. Elder is cheap enough in a good matchup that he’s a reasonable play. Smith might be too with more of a workload. However, I’m also siding with the White Sox here (+144). I have the Braves favored in this game, but by a lesser margin. Everything has it’s price and we seem to have hit on two of them on opposite sides here. The White Sox have also had three-quarters of a run better bullpen estimators over the last 30 days.

Yankees @ Rays

Carlos Rodon completed his first quality start in five starts last time out, not only allowing a single run over seven innings to the Twins, but just a single hit while striking out five and walking two. Even with hat outing and another eight strikeouts and one walk against the Phillies (both at home), Rodon has just a 10.8 K-BB% over his last eight starts and is down to a still very respectable 17.8% on the year with an average contact profile. In fact, both his rate of barrels (8.4%) and hard contact (39.7%) are his best in a Yankee uniform. Whie his 3.25 ERA matches a 3.18 xERA, additional estimators range from a 3.55 dERA to a 4.15 Bot ERA. This is a bit of a concerning spot in a park that favors right-handed power. While RHBs have just a .286 wOBA against Rodon this year (.299 xwOBA), that comes with 15 of the 19 home runs he's allowed.

Shane Baz has allowed 24 runs (23 earned) over his last 25 innings…with a 19.5 K-BB% and league average-ish 40.5 HardHit% (8.1% Barrels/BBE). Four of his six barrels came in one start  in LA (AL). A .400 BABIP and 50.8 LOB% are running the show here. It gets even better over his last three starts with a 24.3 K-BB%. This is everything you want to see in a pitcher ready to heavily regress and potentially break out of a funk.

From a daily fantasy aspect, Rodon is still my number two overall in a tough park because the Rays haven’t hit LHP well and should have some strikeouts in the lineup. That said, at the same price ($10K) on either site, I prefer Rodon on FanDuel and think he’s adequately priced on DraftKings. Baz is just outside my top five in a much tougher matchup, but also much cheaper. He’s probably a better value than Rodon on DraftKings for $2.3K less.

With that said, I have these pitchers nearly dead even. Giving the Yankees large offensive and defensive edges, they should probably be large favorites, right? Tampa Bay takes some back for being at home, having much better base running and a massive bullpen gap. The Rays are the top pen in the league by nearly half a run over the last month (estimators) and are a run and a quarter ahead of the Yankees, forcing me to lean with the home side at +120 here.

Rangers @ Royals

Merrill Kelly has had one poor start, walking five Phillies, but two strong ones, falling a single out short of a pair of quality starts with two runs in each since being traded to the Rangers. They really haven’t changed much. He’s still mixing up six different pitches, leading with his changeup in his first two starts for Texas, but his fastball last time out. His 3.36 ERA on the season is more than a third of a run below estimators ranging from a 3.72 FIP/dERA/xFIP to a 4.42 Bot ERA (4.05 xERA if we don’t count pitch modeling.

It’s hard to say the Seth Lugo regression bomb has continued with 14 runs (13 earned) over his last eight innings because it’s not really regression. He’s just pitching poorly with six walks and three strikeouts.

You might notice that Kansas City is generally one of the, if not THE, warmest/hottest spot on the board during the summer and that frequently comes with a wind blowing out to left. That, plus the home team’s lack of strikeouts, generally makes it tough to roster pitchers against them, Lugo we’re not interesting in because he just hasn’t been that good this year. Nearly all of his estimators exceed four and a half now.

Bullpen L30 days...

Athletics @ Twins

Jacob Lopez has gone four straight scoreless starts (24.2 innings) and has struck out 19 without a walk over his last two starts (14.2 IP, 49 BF). Two of these starts have been at home. Of course, there’s some good fortune whenever a pitcher runs up a scoreless streak, but not so much for him this season. The 79.1 LOB% is a bit high, but he’s up to a 28.9 K% with a 31.9 HardHit%. There aren’t many pitchers who run a strikeout rate higher than their hard hit rate, but Lopez is close and still being undervalued. PitchingBot seems to be out of their minds with a 4.54 Bot ERA, more than half a run above any of Lopez’s other estimators.

Joe Ryan has been doing great work too, allowing two runs or less in eight of nine starts with a 24 K-BB% (23.2% on the season). His estimators range only as high as a 3.63 xFIP, though all are at least half a run above his 2.72 ERA. I can almost buy the .253 BABIP with 36 GB% and 10.3 IFFB%, but the 81.5 LOB% is still a bit high and the fly balls have led to some danger (11.1% Barrels/BBE).

Lopez fits in with a group of three or four pitchers that could be backend top five to seven guys, but is now respectably priced up after his last two starts. I actually have Ryan slightly behind him (one reason is because he gets no defensive help, whether framing or behind him) and a poor value for the price. That said, I still have Ryan the better overall arm by nearly half a run, but the A’s are the better offense, maybe defense and bullpen, driving me towards the first full unit of the day (+132).

Brewers @ Cubs

Brandon Woodruff struck out a season low four Pirates, but only went four shutout innings (18 battters). There were six base runners, but he only threw 65 pitches after throwing 79. I’m not sure what the Brewers are thinking here in terms of pitch conservation. The results have been magnificent and a little whacky with a 3.54 dERA, 3.63 FIP and 3.84 Bot ERA, but otherwise not an estimators above three. At least the FIP can be explained by all seven of his barrels leaving the park.

With the second game on Monday’s doubleheader being rained out, we’ll play two on Tuesday with some pitcher flippage. Boyd is projected to start the first game with Tallion here now.

I can’t pay up for Woodruff with this inconsistent workload.

Dodgers @ Rockies

Emmett Sheehan allowed five runs for the second time in six starts (plus two bulk relief spots). While he’s been a bit unfortunate with a 59.3 LOB%, 25% of his runs have been unearned. As a results, his 3.86 ERA is pretty steady with estimators. The 16.4 K-BB% is better than I expected. With an average contact profile, somehow, his xERA (3.57) runs nearly half a run below contact neutral estimators around four. It doesn’t make sense on the surface. Sheehan has displayed a bit of a split (75 points by wOBA), which would seem good news against a Colorado lineup that doesn’t have any LHBs (Moniak), but Statcast closes that to 20 points (xwOBA).

I really don’t want to Gomber. A 4.81 Bot ERA is his best estimator by half a run. It’s just bad results every time out.

No interest in either of these pitchers and I’m probably trying like hell to stack Dodgers, but the same logic as Monday (currently tied at 3 in the bottom of the 9^th). The Dodgers have a bad defense and bullpen (until they get some guys back soon). The Dodgers are far better than the Rockies offensively, but only a 100 wRC+ on the road. This line should be sizeable, but you can usually count on Dodger lines being inflated. If I’m willing to go against Yamamoto, I’ll go against Sheehan at the same price (+220).

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Reds @ Angels

Over two months on the IL and Hunter Greene did not skip a beat. He struck out six without a walk over six shutout innings (three hits) at home against the Phillies in his return. At 85 pitches, there should be no limitations going forward. The 26.7 GB% has led to 9.2% Barrels/BBE and he moves from one power friendly park to another, but the 25.2 K-BB% takes care of most problems (2.94 xERA). He has the absolute best pitch modeling on the board and I’m sad because I had pre-season Cy Young money on him.

No.

Facing a predominantly right-handed lineup (.212 wOBA, .231 xwOBA against Greene), you’re looking at my top pitcher on the board and favorite value on FanDuel (pretty strong on DK too). If the Angels post the same lineup as Monday, that’s eight batters above a 24 K% against RHP.

Guardians @ Diamondbacks

Tanner Bibee has walked eight of his last 20 against the White Sox and Marlins. He has just a 13.4 K-BB% over his last eight with just one start above 15% and just 14% on the season. A decent contact profile gives him a 3.68 xERA, one of two estimators (3.79 dERA) below four. League average pitcher and you see him as a bottom third pitcher below on the pitch matchup run value ratings, which gets only slightly better with marginal pitch modeling.

Seven innings of one run ball, striking out six with a walk at Coors, a start after they beat him up in Arizona in the previous start. Eduardo Rodriguez continues his feast or famine season with no rhyme, rhythm or reason. The totality of it is a 13.4 K-BB% similar to Bibee with a higher rate of barrels (8.3%), but just a 34.1 HardHit%. Somehow, that’s a 4.37 xERA? Regardless, everything except awful pitch modeling and his FIP are more than a run below his 5.40 ERA (.352 BABIP). He catches a poor Cleveland road offense in their lesser split against LHP.

I have Bibee slightly ahead of ERod as one of those backend top five to seven arms and at reasonable prices, I don’t mind either pitcher in GPPs. Either could pop a strong one or a quality start. That said, the Zona Backs have not slowed down at all since trading away the middle of their lineup. The Guardians have some edges here, but he home team has a massive offensive one and are better base runners too. I think they should be more moderate favorites (-115) at home.

Giants @ Padres

Kai-Wei Teng has walked and struck out eight each of 48 batters and we don’t like to play pitchers against the San Diego lineup anyway. They don’t strike out.

Nick Pivetta has 15 quality starts in 24 tries and fell one out shy of eight in his last nine. His 19.5 K-BB% is a three year low and his contact profile (10.5% Barrels/BBE, 43.4 HardHit%) is worse than last year, but he’s allowed 13 fewer home runs on the same amount of barrels as last year because Petco + he gets to face the Rockies and Giants a lot (5x, though both have five run games against him). Anyway, slightly worse estimators and pitch modeling (upper threes), but better results with a .232 BABIP to go with the run prevention. Not that he actually has bad numbers and probably deserves this after the last two years.

Pivetta is either my third or fourth best overall arm, but also may be close to overpriced at this point at $9.5K or higher.

Right now, it looks like Hunter Greene is my main guy, but we'll pick it up here on Tuesday afternoon.