Monday 8/18 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Brewers @ Cubs (G1)

Freddy Peralta and Cade Horton are currently scheduled to start Game One.

Peralta has struck out at least seven in five of his last seven starts, but has walked and struck out a total of seven each in the other two. His last start in Pittsburgh was his first in five without multiple walks, though the three walk outings were issues to Braves, Dodgers and Cubs.

Cade Horton has allowed 11 hits over his last 28.1 innings (.162 BABIP, 95 LOB%), but has also now struck out 14 of his last 40 with just two walks. The Cubs appear to want to conserve pitches (71, 67 previous two starts), but he’s pitching so well that they let him throw 82 last time out, but that may be the ceiling right now.

Astros @ Tigers

SpAghetti walked five Red Sox his last time out and has walked 11 of 84 overall. His 19 K% should improve with better control, due to his 11.7 SwStr%.

Jack Flaherty has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over his last nine innings. He’s struck out nine of 46 with two walks, but with seven barrels (20%).

Blue Jays @ Pirates

Kevin Gausman has struck out eight or more in four of his last eight, but a total of 13 in the other four combined. It’s been exactly every other start, so we’re due for a high strikeout game in Pittsburgh if you’re buying into that. He does have four quality starts of one run or less in his last five though, three of them with seven innings completed.

Paul Skenes has allowed a season high four runs in two of his last three starts. He’s done that only two other times all season. Nearly half his runs have been allowed in just four of his 25 starts. He also tied a season low, striking out four for the third time last time out. Each of the last two times he did that was against the Brewers.

Cardinals @ Marlins

Matthew Liberatore has just an 8.3 K-BB% over his last 15 starts and there’s been conversation of moving him to the pen soon. He’s gone beyond 80 pitches in just one of his last five starts, all of which have been 4.1 innings or less.

After allowing four runs over his previous 34 innings, Eury Perez has allowed nine over his last 10.1 with five home runs, but only four barrels (13.3%, 56.7 HardHit%). He did strike out eight of 19 Guardians last time out though, with an 18.7 SwStr% and just one walk.

Mariners @ Phillies

Logan Gilbert produced just this third quality start with two runs or less this season last time out in Baltimore. He recorded just his fifth seventh inning out and second since his first. He has a 28 K-BB%, but 12 of 19 barrels have left the yard, something more likely to happen in Philly than Seattle.

Ranger Suarez’s velocity remains down over a mph in his last five starts. He’s allowed 21 runs over 28.2 innings with a 38.4 GB% and 12 K-BB%, but eight of his 23 strikeouts over this span came in one start in the Bronx.

Orioles @ Red Sox

The .212 BABIP, 84.9 LOB% and 2.8 HR/FB are certainly doing a lot of heavy lifting, but Trevor Rogers is also up to a 17.6 K-BB% after a 21.6% mark over his last four. And while just 16.7% of his barrels have turned into home runs, he’s only allowing them at a 6.5% pace with a 48.4 GB% helping to soften the effects of a 48.9 HardHit%. That part of his game, probably won’t last. He’s due for serious home run regression, but still has just a 3.07 xERA that’s well below his 3.70 SIERA. Pitch modeling is very conflited with Pitching Bot loving him, but Pitching+ seeing nothing better than average.

We mentioned last time out that Boston made some tweaks to Dustin May in his first post-trade start. His velocity was down (94.8 mph), but they changed his arm angle and had him throwing far more fastballs and cutters (29.7% each). Well, he struck out of 24 Astros over six shutout innings in his last start with the fastball up to 96.5 mph on average (95.5 season). May went back to leading with the slider this time out (37% game, 40.2% season), but still threw more cutters (19.6%, 8.8%). They seem to be want more of a balance across his four pitch arsenal, making May more difficult to figure out.

Another extremely closely grouped top four, maybe even five, six or seven does include Rogers right in the middle of that pack right now, but the price tag is exorbitant, especially on FanDuel ($10.5K). The home runs are going to catch up with him eventually. He’s not $10K good. Especially not at Fenway. I also have May rated very similarly, but as a much better value with a much lower price tag. In fact, in a decent upside strikeout matchup that will help offset the run environment, May may be my favorite DraftKings value ($6.9K). He’s actually upgraded his defense significantly with the trade too.

White Sox @ Braves

Nearly 26 year-old Yoendrys Gomez is not a prospect of note (40 FV FG). He’s thrown 17.2 innings in relief and then his first major league start last week, in which he impressively struck out seven of 20 Tigers with an 18 SwStr%. He has just a 5.7 K-BB% overall, but did strike out 32% of AAA batters in 64 innings. He had a 15.7 K-BB% for the Yankees’ AAA affiliate last season.

Spencer Strider was torched for eight more runs last time out and has allowed 10 home runs on 13 barrels (11.8%) over his last seven starts. Strider struck out a season low two Mets. The fastball isn’t what it used to be and pitch modeling hates him, while contact inclusive estimators are with a quarter run of his 4.69 ERA. Contact neutral estimators are a bit below four though and he still has a 26.9 K% with a 14.2 SwStr%.

Strider is my 1A on Monday night and one of the better values on FanDuel, where he’s $700  less expensive than DraftKings. Yes, he’s been a mess, but still has the highest upside on the slate in a solid matchup. Stacking the White Sox would be a gutsy GPP move though.

Rangers @ Royals

I guess Jack Leiter walking just two of 22 Diamondbacks is a win. It was his first start with fewer than three walks since early July. A 4.42 Bot ERA is the estimator closest to his 3.94 ERA with just 12 of 35 barrels leaving the yard and a .260 BABIP.

Last Tuesday…

“Michael Wacha has allowed six runs over his last 30.1 innings, but with just a 12.7 K-BB% (11.7% season). He has been a masterful contact manager this season (33 HardHit%), but still has a 3.96 xERA more than half a run above his 3.36 ERA with an 18.1 K%. Neither his BABIP, strand rate nor home run rate are incredibly off, but they’re all a little sketchy. That xERA is his best non-FIP estimator with contact neutral ones around four and a half.”

He allowed two runs over 5.2 innings to the Nationals, striking out three of 23 batters with two walks and a 27.8 HardHit%. His 3.94 xERA remains well above his 3.35 ERA.

You could get a quality start and some run prevention from Wacha, but what are you really paying $8-9K for and hoping to get here?

Bullpen L30 days...

Brewers @ Cubs (G2)

Unless they do some flip-flopping, both teams appear to be welcoming back pitchers for Game Two. Chad Patrick has been demoted to AAA once Brandon Woodruff was activated. He pitched about half a run worse than his 3.52 ERA (16.3 K-BB%, near average contact profile), according to most non-FIP estimators. Some disagreement from PitchingBot, but Pitching+ is in line with that sentiment. He’s a bit of an oddball in that he’s mostly cutter/fastball/sinker and likes to elevate almost everything. He has just a 13.7 K-BB% at AAA. 

The Cubs are set to welcome back Jameson Taillon, who last pitched in late June. He walked just two of 56 batters in three AAA rehab starts, allowing as many runs, but only struck out 11. PitchingBot is in love with all three secondaries (slider, change, curve), but most remaining estimators confirm his 4.44 ERA this season. Whether the calf injury was responsible for the 15 runs he allowed over his last 12.2 innings before hitting the IL remains to be seen, but I have my doubts.

Dodgers @ Rockies

The Angels torched Yoshi Yama for six runs with a 69.2 HardHit% last time out. He tied a season high with five walks. A predominantly right-handed lineup did that damage and he has had minor issues with RHBs this year (.292 wOBA, .299 xwOBA with LHBs 50-60 points lower). Yamamoto does have a 29.5 K% over his last five starts though and a 19.7 K-BB% on the year with 52.5% of his contact on the ground, generating just 5.9% Barrels/BBE.

Kyle Freeland has a 12.4 K% over his last eight starts.

While I’m generally lower on Yamamoto than most, he’s my 1B to Strider’s 1A on this ugly slate. That said, this is a predominantly right-handed lineup too (just not a good one) and I don’t think Yamamoto is a particularly strong value. He’s only had quality starts in half his starts and two of those are three in six. Freeland is actually popping as a decent value for $4.5K on DraftKings, but it’s a very hard roster. That said, I also think this line is too high. The Rockies (+224) have large starting pitching and lineup deficits, but match up nearly evenly defensively, in the pen and on the bases while being at home. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Reds @ Angels

Six shutout innings on three hits, striking out six of 20 Phillies without a walk for Brady Singer the start after he walked four Pirates with just two strikeouts and allowed four runs. However, three of his four starts previous to that were quality starts with at least eight strikeouts in each. The except, he struck out one Washington National and gave up seven runs. WTF is going on here? I don’t know, but the majority of his issue are with LHBs (.340 wOBA, .360 xwOBA) with LHBs below a .300 wOBA and xwOBA. The Pirates and Nationals were his only road starts in that stretch, but why would pitching in Cincinnati be a good thing?

Victor Mederos has struck out seven of 35 major league batters with as many walks in one four inning start, a three inning relief appearance plus another inning. It’s a pretty standard 95 mph sinker with a slider and changeup, generating 47.4% of his contact on the ground so far, but pitch modeling vomits over all three offerings, mostly the command grades (20 Bot Command on a 20-80 scale, 73 Location+ where 100 is average). The 24 year-old Mederos has a 35+ FV grade (FG) and posted a 10.7 K-BB% at AAA (103 IP). All projections exceed five.

Decent spot for Singer against a predominantly right-handed lineup. Both teams have a 99 wRC+ vs RHP and I couldn’t find a single positive on Mederos. I don’t love the Cincinnati bullpen, but see no reason the Reds shouldn’t have a strong F5 edge (-118). I don’t have any interest in Singer for $9.2K on FanDuel, but have him a slightly better than middle of the board value for $8K on FD.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Guardians @ Diamondbacks

As expected, Gavin Williams lasted just 75 pitches after throwing 126 pitches in his near no-hitter. What wasn’t expected is that 75 pitches only taking him through three innings at home against the Marlins, who homered twice on three barrels with an 81.8 HardHit% and put four on the board. Over his last eight starts, Williams has had an 18.8 K-BB% or better in every other start, but below 7% in each of the other four starts. He struck out four Marlins with one walk, but walked four in his one-hitter. Overall, his 11.1 K-BB% just doesn’t do much for us. His 3.38 ERA is a function of BABIP (.254) and strand rate (80.8%).

Zac Gallen struck out just one of 23 Rangers in his last start. He snapped a string of two straight quality starts and four straight six inning outings with five innings of three run ball in Texas. Gallen actually has the higher K-BB (12.7%) and pitch modeling of these two pitchers. He hasn’t been good, but exactly the opposite of Williams, Gallen’s 5.31 ERA is partially the function of a 65.9 LOB%.

Gallen may be slightly undervalued in a decent spot for less than $8K, more so on FanDuel where the quality start gets you more. Similar for Williams a bit more expensively. He has the highest strikeout rate, but also the much higher walk rate and it’s not a hitter friendly park (roof already confirmed closed). Outside of daily fantasy, I rate these pitchers very similarly and the Arizona offense has not slowed down despite trading away the middle of their lineup. We don’t yet have a F5 line because Gallen is not confirmed, though Roster Resource lists him and I see nothing to conflict that and also don’t really worry if it’s not Gallen here. I like the Arizona side (-116) with or without him.  

Giants @ Padres

Robbie Ray is coming off a marginal start against these Padres. He did go six innings with just one walk, but also just four strikeouts with as many runs allowed and three barrels with a 50% HardHit%. His 2.98 ERA is half a run below contact inclusive estimators, but a run below contact neutral ones. Pitch modeling hates him most of all. He has a .254 BABIP and 80.7 LOB% to go with a 16 K-BB% that’s more good than Ace-like. The park helps him a bit, but Petco is sneakily power friendly to right-handed bats.

Striking out six of 21 Giants with just one walk last time out, Nestor Cortes looked more like himself than in earlier starts before hitting the IL. His velocity did drop back down a mph again though. Since this was the exact same matchup as last Tuesday, I may as well reiterate what I wrote then for both pitchers…

“Nestor Cortes’s first start for the Padres and in four months resulted in as many strikeouts as walks (three each) over 4.2 innings. His velocity was up to 91 mph, above his two Milwaukee starts, but half a mph to a mph below his Yankee years. Pitch modeling hated it more than his previous two starts. None of the numbers are good, but it’s only three starts for a guy with a 17.3 K-BB% in his worst season in four years last year. Each year has been a decline, but projections are still near or slightly worse than league average.

After a couple of rougher ones, Robbie Ray has struck out 14 of his last 51 with three walks in two straight quality starts totaling three runs. Pitch modeling does not like him and the 16.1 K-BB% is more good than elite, but the park can temper the 44.2 HardHit%, though I don’t believe the 7.8% Barrels/BBE with a 39.1 GB% is very sustainable with that much hard contact in the air. The .251 BABIP and 81.7 LOB% should regress, even if the 9.8 HR/FB is fine in this park.”

Back to the present now, you just can’t pay $9.5K to roster a decent pitcher against the Padres, though Cortes is in a great spot against a team who can’t hit lefties that he just pitched well against with reduced velocity. He could be one of the better values on the board.

We'll pick up from here on Monday afternoon with more daily fantasy notes.