Friday 8/14 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Pirates @ Cubs

This is one of six TBDs, but we do know it’s going to be Braxton Ashford, who has been a multi-inning beast for the Pittsburgh pen, but did start and throw 56 pitches last time out. It’s not inconceivable that he could go five. The 12.6 K-BB% is average, but with 50% of his contact on the ground Ashford has only allowed 4.5% Barrels/BBE. Pitching+ loves him (120).

Colin Rea’s ERA is up to 4.09, but with 11% Barrels/BBE and 10.3% Barrels/BBE, all estimators are still at four and a half or higher. However, he has a great defense behind him and a great matchup on Friday.

I have an under lean here at 9.5, but Wrigley is one of the few spots I’m hesitant to play totals before game day. I’ll risk lowing the 9.5 to get a better idea of the weather in the morning.

Brewers @ Reds

The Brewers have stated they won’t name a starter for Friday before Friday. Thanks guys! They were asked if Jacob Misiorowski could return here and they said…mayyyybe, in a reduced role. Considering he’s only averaged 18 batters per outing and was held below 80 pitches in four of his last five starts, I’m not sure what reduced would look like.

A three point drop in K% and similar increase in BB% this year has turned Nick Martinez back into Nick Martinez.

Phillies @ Nationals

Zack Wheeler noted shoulder soreness for a 2 mph velocity drop, his lowest average velocity of the season by 0.4 mph, but his four previous lowest average velocity games were all in April. Stil struck out seven of 21 Rangers with three walks and two runs over five innings.

Going into his last start in San Francisco, Mackenzie Gore had allowed at least six runs in three of his previous four starts. He didn’t strike out a single Athletic in his previous performance. Gore struck out 10 of 22 Giants over six shutout innings.

Rangers @ Blue Jays

Jacob deGrom has allowed 13 runs over his last 17 innings, but his worst game was in Seattle of all placed, where he walked three, while striking out five. The Angels and Phillies scored a combined eight runs against him too, but each also struck out eight times with a walk. DeGrom’s velocity has remained in the 98 mph range (up nearly a mph) over the last nine starts, but the command has been a bit off lately. His 135.1 IP is the first time he’s hit the 100 inning mark since 2019.

Chris Bassitt has allowed at least three runs in three of his last four starts with a pair of quality starts over that span. He’s had a very inconsistent season and LHBs remain troublesome (.362 wOBA, .348 xwOBA), but he has posted quality starts with one run or less in one-third of his starts this year and his 16.1 K-BB% is his highest mark since leaving Oakland with just a 35.6 HardHit%.

I have around eight top pitchers within a few points of each other near the top of the board for Friday and these are two of them. In fact, I grade Bassitt slightly better, which obviously makes him the better value almost entirely due to the matchup. Just two in the Toronto projected lineup exceed a 16.6 K% vs RHP this year.

Mariners @ Mets

Luis Castillo has a 16.8 K-BB% at home and just 11.4% on the road. Further, LHBs .338 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against him. They’re up to a .372 wOBA against him on the road. Offense hasn’t been the problem for the Mets lately and I expect their lefties to have a strong showing against Castillo.

Sean Manaea has allowed nine runs over his last 9.2 innings and for the first time in six outings pitched fewer innings than the previous start with just four last time out. However, there is some good news. After debuting at 93 mph, Manaea saw his velocity average 91.1 mph over his next four starts. That jumped back up to 92 mph, around where he sat least year, last time out. He also has a 21.1 K-BB% and 33.3 HardHit% overall. The issue has been that all four of his barrels (5.3%) have left the park.

Considering the Mets have just about every edge in this game (though a couple may be small) and are at home, I have them as a larger favorite (-119). Follow Rocky Jade for more. I have no interest in either of these pitchers for daily fantasy purposes though. It’s a strong board and Manaea hasn’t had a six inning outing yet.

Braves @ Guardians

This was one of three TBDs I couldn’t find anything on. Roster Resource listed Erick Fedde. They were wrong.

Joey Cantillo average velocity last four starts (most recent last): 92.2 mph, 88.8 mph, 91.5 mph, 90.7 mph. He doesn’t have a quality start among the four because he has only thrown a total of 20.1 innings. He did strike out nine Twins two starts back (91.5), but also allowed four runs, his most for this four game stretch where he’s also walked 12 of 87 batters. Prior to this stretch, Castillo had a 20.7 K-BB% over his first three starts and 18.8% if you include his bullpen work.

If we knew Cantillo were healthy here, I really wouldn’t mind him in a pitcher friendly park against a lineup with some strikeouts in it that has struggled against LHP. In fact, if I factor in his overall numbers, he’d be a part of that top eight cluster with deGrom and Bassitt plus others, but that velocity roller coaster scares the crap out of me.

Marlins @ Red Sox

With 11 more runs over his last 12 innings and only eight strikeouts with a 41.9 GB% over his previous 12 shutout innings heading into the deadline that got everyone so excited, I think we can put our hopes and dreams for Sandy Alcantara’s 2025 season to bed. While he does have decent pitch modeling, Alcantara doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half deep into the season.

Lucas Giolito has abysmal pitch modeling, while his estimators only range as low as a 4.41 xFIP. He has been productive at times, but is coming off of walking six Padres and now carries an 11.8 K-BB%, while allowing 9.6% Barrels/BBE on the year.

Gonna double dip here. These pitchers have very similar estimators, the same wRC+ against RHP and what the Red Sox gain in defense, the Marlins get back in bullpen advantage. Why is this line so large (+142)? More importantly, why is this total only 8.5 (-122)?

Orioles @ Astros

This was a TBD that has since been confirmed with Roster Resource on the ball on this one with Brandon Young, who has a 9.8 K-BB%, while allowing 10.4% Barrels/BBE.

Framber Valdez followed up three consecutive one run outings with double digit strikeouts in two of the three with trips to Boston and New York (AL). He allowed 10 runs over 11.2 innings, generating four walks and strikeouts each. That basically renders the double digit strikeout games moot with his K-BB at 17.2% over the entire five games, very much in line with his season rate (16.1%), which is very much in line with last season (16.1%). And that’s completely fine with a 60.2 GB%, which he needs to keep his barrels down (6.6%) with a 46.3 HardHit%. It’s who he is, but who he is also a guy frequently pitching deep into games with nine starts of seven innings or more and just five of less than six. LHPs have also feasted on the O’s this year.

Valdez is one of our core eight and a better value on FanDuel, where he’s $600 less. This is a great get back on track spot for him and if he doesn’t we start to worry (well, not we, but somebody will worry).

Tigers @ Twins

Charlie Morton lasted only 4.1 innings in his second start for the Tigers, allowing six runs to the Angels, but striking out 10. He’s struck out 16 of 45 overall since the deadline with just two walks, but a 60 HardHit%. The Tigers haven’t altered much about Morton’s approach. What are you gonna do? He’s 41 years old and throws curveballs. Morton’s velocity has been up half a mph over his last four starts and he has a 16.2 K-BB% since returning to the Baltimore rotation in late May.

This is our third TBD with no information and only one that hasn’t been confirmed yet. Roster Resource is listing Jose Urena.

This is a decent, neutral spot for Morton, who also makes our core eight on Friday. Towards the back of the group, for sure, but still close enough and with one of the cheaper price tags that he may be one of the better values on the board.

Bullpen L30 days...

White Sox @ Royals

Right here, prior to Aaron Civale’s last start…

“…you have to give him credit for his last three starts: 17.1 IP – 1 R (0 ER) – 27.9 K-BB% - 21.1 HardHit%. The only significant pitch usage alteration has been more curveballs (24.1% from around 15%). The pitch owns a 68 PB grade and 115 P+ over this span. I’m not saying he’s going to continue it. Almost all of his estimators still exceed four and a half, but his 3.85 xERA is actually below his 3.99 ERA.”

In a way, Civale did continue his fine work, striking out six of 20 Guardians with two walks and just four hard hit batted balls (36.4%). That’s quite the start, right? In another way, well a .727 BABIP, 18.2 LOB% and nine earned runs. His xERA dropped to 3.97.

Noah Cameron has allowed no runs in six of his last 12 starts, but has also allowed four or more four times in that span. While being a great contact manager this year (4.9% Barrels/BBE, 37.1 HardHit%), Cameron has produced just a league average 13.4 K-BB% and 42 GB%. Contact inclusive estimators are generous, but still more than three-quarters of a run above his 2.52 ERA with contact neutral estimators above four with a .236 BABIP and 84.5 LOB%.

A few things to cover here and we’ll start with the daily fantasy aspect. Civale is of little use against the contact prone Royals, while Cameron is also a backend core eight guy, merely because the White Sox strike out more. The two teams have the same wRC+ vs LHP. Although, above $9K, I’m not sure I’m rostering him. Getting back to the two teams having the same wRC+ against R/LHP and little separation between the starting pitchers. The White Sox also have the better bullpen estimators L30 days. I’m backing them at +158.

Yankees @ Cardinals

Luis Gil was roughed up in his first start in Miami, walking four with just three strikeouts and allowing five of 19 batters to score, but his velocity was in line with last season at 96.4 mph and he bounced back big in his second start, striking out seven of 22 Astros (16.5 SwStr%), while allowing two runs over 5.1 innings. At 91 pitches last time out, there should be no further workload limitations on Gil, whose fastball and slider have improved pitch modeling grades from last season so far.

A 60 GB% has real life value, even with a 7.3 K-BB%. Pallante has a reasonable 4.23 SIERA and xERA, which is a fine back end starter, but he’s also allowed at least five runs in four of his last six starts and there are going to be plenty of games like that when you “pitch to contact”. Just ask Aaron Civale.

Gil may be the actual back end of our core eight, still a nice place to be and perhaps a bit expensive for $9.3K, but one of my favorite values on DK for just $7.5K.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies

After a four game 22.8 K-BB% stretch, where it looked like Brandon Pfaadt was getting back on track, he’s posted a 9.1% mark over his last four, dropping his season rate back to a league average 13.7%, which still might be fine if not for the 12.1% Barrels/BBE and 47.2 HardHit%. Contact neutral estimators are a run below his 5.03 ERA, contact inclusive ones a run above.

Tanner Gordon has allowed 24 runs over his last 10.1 innings with six barrels and a 48.1 HardHit%. With a 13.8 K% through seven starts, he projects a 5.98 xERA.

I you need to pay down to $7K for your SP2 on DK, I can see where Pfaadt might be attractive, like anyone is against the Rockies, home or road. However, I’d probably find a way to pay another $500-600 for Gil or Roupp. Also, we’re 2-0 now playing high visiting totals at Coors, so why not go again (o6.5 -113)?

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Angels @ Athletics

Yusei Kikuchi’s velocity has been up more than half a mph (95.5) over his last five starts and he’s posted a 22.8 K-BB% over his last 11, but he’s still allowing barrels (9.1% on the season) with a hard hit rate above 40%.

Jack Perkins brought his 38.4 K% at AAA to the A’s in a bullpen role to start, going at least two innings in all but one outing, and has now been moved to the rotation, posting his first quality start last time out. The 24.1 K% is not as impressive and the walk rates have been a bit high at both AAA and in the majors, but a 15.5 SwStr% is very impressive, while he’s allowed just three barrels (3.9%) with a 31.4 HardHit%. The slider (62 PitchingBot, 123 Pitching+) has been a monster, but the fastball (40, 67) has been a challenge for him.

Perkins has held RHBs below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA, which is good against an Angels lineup that will likely have six RHBs and seven batters above a 24 K% against RHP this year. While I wouldn’t touch Kikuchi because of his price and contact profile in this park, Perkins is a very interesting SP2 for $5.9K.

Padres @ Dodgers

Michael King, who was supposed to start this game, has gone right back to the IL. Randy Vasquez was called up to take his spot on the roster. It doesn’t mean he’ll pitch here, but he’s RR’s guess. Considering his .353 wOBA against LHBs and his xwOBA 50 points above actual wOBA to batters from either side of the plate, the Dodgers are probably on board with this.

Clayton Kershaw allowed one run over six innings to the Blue Jays last time out and even set a six game strikeout high against the stingiest lineup in the league. He struck out four. Kershaw is getting half his contact on the ground, limiting barrels (4.4%), even with a carer high (nearly by five points) 44.5 HardHit%. The stuff is no longer there or maybe it’s the health of the body throwing the pitches. He’s down to a 9.1 K-BB% this year.

Rays @ Giants

The Rays have not been able to harness Joe Boyle’s stuff. He’s walked 10 of his last 57 batters and posted an 11.8 K-BB% over 30.2 innings with 11.5% Barrels/BBE and a 43.6 HardHit%.

Landon Roupp had allowed six runs (four earned) over 31.1 innings with a 13.9 K-BB% before hitting the IL after his 7/22 start in Atlanta. It’s a shame, as he had struck out 14 of his last 47 batters with two walks. He’s also been a decent contact manager with a 35.8 HardHit% on the season. Unfortunately, Roupp faced only 12 batters (four strikeouts) in his lone rehab start.

The Rays haven’t hit outside Tampa Bay this year and Roupp would have been one of my core eight until I realized just now that he is coming off the IL off a short rehab start. We can make it a core seven now.

Be back with more daily fantasy notes in the afternoon (maybe a bit later as I have a repairman coming late morning) unless we get a bunch  of pitcher swaps.