Thursday 8/14 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Mariners @ Orioles

It’s been eight starts since Logan Evans last completed six innings. He’s recorded just three total sixth inning outs over that span, allowing three or more runs five times. This is not all strand rate and BABIP either. He’s posted a 9 K-BB%, while allowing 14.4% Barrels/BBE with a 52 HardHit% during this stretch.

Tomo Sugano threw seven innings of one run ball for the third time this season last time out. We’ve seen a four start spike in his strikeout rate (21.9%), but don’t believe it (6.5 SwStr%). His 4.24 ERA is more than a quarter run below all estimators, although he has gone some strand rate regression over his last 10 starts (70.3%) and has driven his BABIP up to .279 with a .335 mark over that same period of time.

Cubs @ Blue Jays

Sandwiched in between a pair of five inning starts with eight runs and as many walks (five) as strikeouts  is a seven shutout inning gem with eight strikeouts. Boyd also preceded this with 20 shutout innings (26.8 K-BB%). He now has a 17.8 K-BB% since returning from injury for Cleveland last year, two and a half points above his previous career rate. The 2.45 ERA is a bit of a fluke with a 79.8 LOB% and only 11 of his 30 barrels have left the park. Still, a 3.27 (xERA) to 3.81 (xFIP) non-FIP range is pretty sweet for a expected middle of the rotation arm. Also, the Blue Jays have been pummeling LHP and only three in their projected lineup exceed a 15 K% against southpaws this year. 

Max Scherzer posted his third straight quality start against the Dodgers (6 IP – 2 R), though his K-BB took a hit. He’s still at 20.1% through nine starts, proving that this old arm still has something left in it when healthy. The 10.2% Barrels/BBE are a career high, but that may be more about the 57.5% fly ball rate (WHAT?) with just a 35.4 HardHit%. That batted ball profile is how you end up with a 20+ K-BB% without an estimator below three and a half. Scherzer has a similarly difficult matchup with the Cubs.

Marlins @ Guardians

Edward Cabrera first four starts: 12.2 BB%, 10 K-BB%
Nex four starts: 6%, 21.7%
Next five starts: 12.6%, 12.6%
Last seven starts: 3.6%, 23.4%

Since this last stretch has been the longest, we can be hopeful that something has finally kicked in for good here.

We can do this a bit with Tanner Bibee too.

First five starts: 5.4 K-BB%
Next 11 starts: 17.7%
Last seven starts: 15.5% (but only one start above 15%)

He’s at 14.5% overall with an average contact profile. That’s an average pitcher folks (3.72 xERA to 4.11 xFIP), but with a 4.60 ERA because 22 of his 32 barrels have left the park. Odd because Cleveland is not known for being a power friendly park, but 14 of his 23 starts and seven of his last 10 have been on the road.

I have Cabrera and Bibee rated almost exactly the same (3A & 3B) on a five game slate. Of course, the  latter is the much better value for $1K less on DK. In fact, Bibee is one of my two favorite values (1B) on DK too. 

Phillies @ Nationals

Jesus Luzardo has a 10 game streak of striking out either seven (six times) or four (four times). He’s allowed four or more runs four times and one or less four times in this span. He’s still carrying a strong 18.8 K-BB% on the season, but has been at 12.5% or lower in three of his last four starts. The largest problem has been RHBs (.336 wOBA, .337 xwOBA), more than 100 points higher than LHBs and with all 12 of his home runs allowed.

However, you remember those back to back starts where he allowed 20 runs in just 5.2 innings? RHBs had a .304 wOBA against him in the 11 preceding starts and .307 in the starts since. They had a .706 wOBA with three home runs in those two starts. Of course, we can't pretend they didn't happen and they might again, but a very different season without them. 

Brad Lord posted his second quality start of the season last time out and has allowed just six runs over 20 innings with a 33.9 HardHit%, but just an 11.5 K-BB% since returning to the rotation. 

Luzardo is my number two overall arm. The Nationals strike out quite a bit against LHP. He's my 1A value for less than $8.5K. I think he and Bibee would be a great value pairing. Lord is not a pitcher of interest on this daily fantasy slate. 

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Braves @ Mets

Brice Elder has started nine games since striking out 12 Giants over eight three hit, one run innings. He’s allowed 43 runs (42 earned) over 42.2 innings with a 4.1 K-BB%. On the season, Elder runs a 4.23 (xFIP) to 5.48 xERA) range with batters from either side of the plate above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

In five starts back from the IL now, Kodai Senga has thrown just 20.1 innings, allowing 14 runs (12 earned) with a 2 K-BB% and 12.7% Barrels/BBE. The contact profile is still strong enough to project a 3.85 xERA on the season, despite a 10.5 K-BB%, but that’s his only estimator below four. The 2.30 ERA is a complete mirage.

Both of these pitchers have estimators much closer to five than four. In Senga’s case, we expect him to figure it out eventually. In Elder’s, he pitches like his name. The Mets have suddenly gotten hot, while the Braves carry an average offense and the league’s fourth worst bullpen estimators over the last month. I like more than 8.5 runs (-106) to be scored in this game. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Neither of these pitchers carry much daily fantasy interest. 

Tigers @ Twins

From Friday’s article:

“Tarik Skubal has four double digit strikeout games in his last 10 and one of the two that he didn’t was the Blue Jays (seven). He’s been above a 16 SwStr% in five of his last six. The Angels are likely to run eight RHBs at him, but they’re still below a .265 wOBA and xwOBA against him and six of the nine are above a 24.5 K% vs LHP this year, five above 29%.”

In an exceptionally high strikeout matchup, Skubal crapped the bed. He allowed four runs in 4.2 innings, two home runs on three barrels (23.1%) and struck out just six. The Twins aren’t putting out a lot of strikeouts in their lineups against LHP recently. That should easily mean another double digit game for Skubal I guess.

In two starts back from the IL, Bailey Ober has struck out eight of 44 batters with a pair of walks and four barrels (11.8%). The velocity is up nearly a mph since returning, but still half a mph below last year’s rate when he posted a career best 20.9 K-BB%. However, it is in line with the previous three seasons (19.8 K-BB%). He’s down to 12.9% with 10.9% Barrels/BBE this season. Maybe some of that can be attributed to injury, but is he healthy again?

Skubal is the obvious top pitcher on the board and my favorite FanDuel value (if they’re still priced the same as Wednesday at - $11K – since they have not yet released their slate). He’s be my third favorite value on DK, where I’d probably try to stick to those three pitchers there, adding Cabrera to my FD mix (assuming same pricing as Wednesday – Cabrera $8.2K, Bibee $8.3K, Luzardo $9.5K). I would have the remaining three as very similar values behind Skubal.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Diamondbacks @ Rockies

Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed 16 runs over his last 26.2 innings with a 2.4 K-BB% and has a 6.1 inning quality start without a run in there. ERod has nine or more strikeouts in just four of his 20 starts this year. That’s 39% of his strikeouts in just 20% of his starts. And that’s what has him posting a competent 13.1 K-BB% overall. Outside of those four big strikeout starts, he has a 7.7 K-BB%. He positives are a 34.4 HardHit% and the Rockies (74 wRC+, 24.4 K% vs LHP). However, the current Colorado projected lineup against LHP averages just a 20.7 K%. RHBs have a .367 wOBA, but .331 wOBA against Rodriguez, who’s .358 BABIP probably deserves some regression. LHBs have a .416 wOBA and .370 xwOBA.

After allowing 12 runs to the Padres in just 3.2 innings, Bradley Blalock has a three start stretch where he allowed just three runs over his next 17 innings, striking out just eight of 69 batters, but also walking only one. He has allowed 12 runs in 10.1 innings since with more walks (seven) than strikeouts (six) and three home runs on six barrels (16.2%). Blalock’s best estimator is a 5.15 xFIP. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

The obvious top offensive spot on the board, Coors is not only the most positive run environment in the league, but will likely have the best hitting weather on the slate in the mid-80s. You see both pitchers bottom three on the Pitch Matchup Ratings and bottom two when you include pitch modeling. If you want to be different and pivot, Citi Field is probably the spot where I’d look.

A couple of weeks ago, I noted I may be a bit crazy for playing the Blue Jays to score more than 6.5 runs in this park. They doubled that output. I’m going back to the well in this one. The Diamondbacks have shown no slowdown since the trade deadline (131 wRC+), while the Rockies add terrible defense and the worst pen in the league. Arizona even has one of the best base running teams in the league if that matters.