Wednesday 8/13 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Nationals @ Royals

While pitch modeling continues to like Jake Irvin’s sinker (59 PitchingBot grade) and curveball (61), it hasn’t done him much good, as all other estimators are within half a run of his 4.90 ERA. Contact neutral estimators a bit lower, contact inclusive a bit higher. The only thing he has going for him on Wednesday afternoon is a strong run prevention matchup. You can see Kansas City’s offensive futility in the chart directly above.

Seth Lugo is coming off a seven run drubbing in Minnesota and has one more walk than strikeout over his last three starts. That drops him to a 12.5 K-BB% on the year, but even with those seven runs, he’s carrying an 83.1 LOB%. Thus, Lugo’s 3.46 ERA is still four-fifths of a run below all estimators. In fact, Irvin has the better pitch modeling. Austin Gomber is the only pitcher on the board with worse pitch modeling than Lugo.

I want to make this extremely clear. A play on the Nationals (+152) is not at all a vote of confidence in Jake Irvin in any form, it’s a vote of no confidence in Lugo. You add to that the slight offensive edge to the Nationals and a gassed, below average Kansas City pen. It simply seems too high.

Tigers @ White Sox

This is one of two uncertain spots on the board and I couldn’t find a thing about either one on Twitter, so I’m following Roster Resource once again with Keider Montero being called back up to make this start…potentially. Without FIP and pitch modeling, his 4.54 xFIP to 4.70 dERA range tells you exactly how he’s pitched this year.

As Shane Smith has approached a career high inning count, the White Sox have been more conservative with him lately, almost being forced to with poor results, but he posted his best start since early June last time out, striking out a career high eight Mariners at T-Mobile. He also has a very tight estimator range and here we can include all of them (4.20 dERA – 4.42 xFIP).

Pirates @ Brewers

Mitch Keller has allowed 13 runs over his last 18.2 innings (four starts) with a 5.8 K-BB%.

Another quality start with two runs or less and eight strikeouts or more for Brandon Woodruff. That makes three of those in six starts. A good read on Fangraphs Monday about the sustainability and unsustainability of Woodruff’s start with seemingly reduced “stuff”.

Rockies @ Cardinals

Not gonna Gomber when I don’t gotta Gomber.

Michael McGreevey is coming off his second quality start in seven tries and has decent pitch modeling, but all additional non-FIP estimators are well above four.

Diamondbacks @ Rangers

Zac Gallen is coming off back to back quality starts for just the third time this year and never more than two in a row. Maybe he’ll regain something next year, but some believe the decline started last year with a career low 16.4 K-BB% that’s dropped further to 13.4% this year. While it’s important to note, that’s still league average, the 10.4% Barrels/BBE and 44.9 HardHit% aren’t. Estimators ranging from a 4.03 xFIP to a 4.75 xERA are still well below his 5.31 ERA (65.7 LOB%), but this is still bottom of the rotation territory.

Texas had Merrill Kelly virtually eliminate the cutter and increase his changeup usage in his first start, a strong one (5.2 IP – 2 R – 0 BB – 6 K) in Seattle, but then leaned back into the cutter a bit with a season low 9.6% fastballs, while remaining heavier than usual on the changeup. That one was not so good against the Phillies (4.1 IP – 4 R – 2 HR - 5  BB – 4 K). I’m sure they’ll want to mix things up again against old club. While Kelly has had a stronger season than Gallen, he’s a bit on the opposite end of the regression spectrum with a 3.38 ERA below estimators ranging from a 3.56 dERA to a 4.40 Bot ERA. Kelly  also now has a 4.66 SIERA and .332 xwOBA allowed over the last month, compared to Gallen’s 3.80 and .338.

Similar to yesterday, I’m going to point to Arizona’s 134 wRC+ since the trade deadline to suggest they may still retain an offensive edge here, while they’re putting out a very comparable defensive lineup to Texas, while both bullpens have been middle-bottom of the league over the last month. Add in a massive base running edge and I’ll be backing the Diamondbacks (+132) again.

Padres @ Giants

Nick Pivetta also has a very small, clear estimator range (3.31 FIP – 3.77 xERA), basically a half run above his 2.94 ERA, as he’s cut his home runs in half moving to Petco (which is actually power friendly for RHBs), along with a .233 BABIP. His 19.6 K-BB% is actually a three season low.

Our second area of uncertainty has now been confirmed with Kai-Wei Teng, who has faced exactly 18 batters in each of his two outings. It’s been a mixed bag with league average strikeouts, a double digit walk rate and an elite contact profile. Pitch modeling does not appear to be a fan. 

Phillies @ Reds

Right here, prior to his last start…

“Cristopher Sanchez allowed four runs in Chicago (AL) two starts back. He followed it up with eight shutout innings against the Tigers and had a streak of six one run starts and 10 with two runs or less prior to the White Sox. He has just two starts of less than seven innings in his last 10 and one (White Sox) by only a single out. Sanchez has faced at least 28 batters in five straight (at least 29 in four) and has posted a 22.7 K-BB% with a 60 GB% (4.6% Barrels/BBE) over the previously mentioned four start stretch.”

By those standards, a one run quality start with just six innings and six strikeouts, 24 batters faced, 42.1 GB%, two barrels and a season worst 68.4 HardHit% in Texas may be one of his worst starts of the year.

Hunter Greene picked up right where he left off with last year’s breakout with a hot start before hitting the IL for a couple of weeks in May. He returned for three more starts (6 R – 14 IP) before hitting the IL for a longer stint with a groin injury. He struck out seven of 21 batters, allowing two home runs in his last rehab start.

Mariners @ Orioles

Logan Gilbert has issued multiple walks in five of his last seven starts, but still carries a 24.5 K-BB% over that span and 28.9% on the season. His road 23.7 K-BB% is a career best mark too. Yet, his 3.35 ERA is still above estimators running only as high as a 3.10 Bot ERA, his only number reaching three. If he hadn’t spent considerable time on the IL, we might be talking about a competitor to Skubal’s Cy Young.

Trevor Rogers has made 10 starts and only allowed three runs once, two runs twice and one run or fewer seven times with eight quality starts. His 16.5 K-BB% doesn’t match Gilbert, but is still above average. The larger concern here is the 49.1 HardHit%, which makes the 6.6% Barrels/BBE look fluky, even with a 47.9 GB%. Yet, a 3.24 xERA is the best of his estimators, which only run as high as a 3.77 SIERA. The .212 BABIP, 85.7 LOB% and 3.2 HR/FB are all due for heavy regression, but he should still land somewhere above average unless that K-BB% collapses.

Marlins @ Guardians

Eury Perez’s first month back from Tommy John surgery was rough, but he took off in his fifth start, posting a 23.4 K-BB% with four runs over his next 34 innings (six starts). Last time out was his first clunker since then with more home runs (three) and walks (two) than strikeouts (one) against the Braves.

If you believe in hits as the barometer of pitcher success, then Gavin Williams just pitched the game of his life, waiting until his 30 batters in for his first hit allowed to Juan Soto, a home run. He only struck out six of 31 Mets and walked four, but allowed just five hard hit batted balls (23.8%). The problem here is that he threw 126 pitches. Cleveland gave him the full week to recover, but you probably wouldn’t be surprised if they limited him a bit more here. Unless this is the start of guys just throwing 120 pitches every start again. It’s really not THAT many.

Bullpen stats L30 days.,,

Twins @ Yankees

With five quality starts, Joe Ryan has allowed more than two runs just twice over his last eight starts. The strikeouts have been hit or miss (eight or more three times, either four or five in each of the other five), but he’s only walked five batters over this stretch and increased his season K-BB% to 23.4%. Yankee Stadium may appear dangerous to a guy with a 36.3 GB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE allowed, but the elite K-BB% takes the edge off a bit. xFIP really punishes Ryan for that ground ball rate (3.58) with additional estimators stretching as low as a 3.15 xERA.

Cam Schlittler continues to exhibit good stuff/pitch modeling with mediocre results through five starts. His K-BB and Barrels/BBE are an equal 10.8%. It’s not ideal, but he’s also dealing with 75% of his barrels leaving the park, which is how we get estimators ranging from a 3.72 Bot ERA to a 5.90 FIP.

Schlittler could be interesting, hasn’t been good yet, while Ryan is turning himself into an Ace with continued excellence for two seasons now. I give him a pretty large edge here, enough to overcome Yankee offensive and defensive edges over the first five (-104). I mean, we know the Twins never beat the Yankees, but they can lead after five. For those playing daily fantasy (I guess mostly for DraftKings, since FanDuel starts earlier), Ryan is my second overall arm, but at too high a price point. Schlittler may be the more interesting daily fantasy pitcher for less than $7.5K.

Cubs @ Blue Jays

Not that you’re considering using Cade Horton (18 K%) against the Blue Jays (17.1 K% vs RHP), but the Cubs have mentioned conservation here and pulled him after 71 and 67 pitches in his last two starts.

We know Kevin Gausman has upside and he’s been flashing it frequently lately, with three quality starts of one run or less and eight strikeouts or more over his last four starts, two of them seven innings. He’s gone at least seven in six of 23 starts, at least six strikeouts in all of those. There have been some downswings as well. His 3.85 ERA nearly matches most estimators.

Gausman’s upside and workload make him the top pitcher on the board for me, even in a tough matchup. He’s also my favorite value of the higher priced pitchers, especially for less than $9K on DK. It’s not like there’s a safe play on this slate.

Red Sox @ Astros

Walker Buehler is coming off six shutout innings (four hits, two walks, four strikeouts) in San Diego last time out. It’s not that he hasn’t had any good starts, but he just hasn’t been able to string them together. Only twice this season has he strung together back to back quality starts. His best estimator is a 4.80 Bot ERA.

Hunter Brown has allowed just four runs over his last 17.1 innings, but just one quality start over that span. In fact, he’s gone 5.1 innings or less in four of his last five, while sustaining a pitch count around 90. The Astros have only let him reach 100 pitches four times this season with a high of 102, but Brown’s rate starts are excellent (22.6 K-BB%, 5.8% Barrels/BBE, 32.8 HardHit%). However, four of his 10 lowest pitch counts of the season have come in his last six starts. Are the Astros conserving his innings for October here?

Walker is cheap enough on a small slate to take a shot that he throws a rare gem. In fact, I may prefer that rather than Brown, the most expensive pitcher on the board and my number three overall. It’s a marginal spot and the workload is not really concerning, but something to be aware of. The price just feels too high.

Below, these last two graphics are  pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Braves @ Mets

A 4.42 Bot ERA is Carlos Carrasco’s best estimator by more than a quarter of a run.

David Peterson is the only Met pitching any innings with at least six in six straight, though more with ground balls (54.8%) than swing and miss (12.1 K-BB%). The peripherals are average, but the ground balls have allowed him to keep the barrels very reasonable (6.7%) with a 46.3 HardHit%.

Peterson is the gap between the top guys and middle of the board on the small slate, but you’re paying almost entirely for run prevention here. The price makes it hard.

Dodgers @ Angels

Shohei Ohtani completed four innings for the first time last time out. He faced two fewer batters than his previous start, but threw three more pitches (54). That’s because he struck out eight of 14 Cardinals. He’s now struck out 25 of 77 batters with five walks, a single barrel and a 27.7 HardHit%.

Kyle Hendricks has seven quality starts this year, nearly one-third of his outings. However, just one of his last eight.

A few things worth mentioning here, though none of them seem to be actionable. We’re still in four inning territory with Ohtani most likely. They are SLOWLY ramping him up. Maybe 60 pitches? He’s been SO dominant and just $4.9K on FanDuel. Ugh. Wait, are they even counting his pitching. He has an $8K price tag on DK and I assume that’s pitching. Can’t do that. Also, why are the Angels much larger full game dogs (+172) than F5 (+142) when the gap between Ohtani and Hendricks is MUCH, MUCH larger than the gap between pens? In fact, the Dodgers have been the worse pen recently.

Rays @ Athletics

Drew Rasmussen completed six innings for the first time in 10 starts last time out. He needed to allow just four hits without a walk to do it, but it looks like the Rays have him firmly between 70 and 80 pitches again (each of his last four starts).

J.T. Ginn struck out a season high nine of 20 Orioles last time out. He’s now carrying an 18.4 K-BB% to go along with a 53.8 GB%. I don’t know how he’s still allowing 11% Barrels/BBE. I mean, more than one-third of his fly balls have been barrels, but these are otherwise near studly numbers.

Generally, I don’t like to recommend pitchers in this park, and Rasmussen’s workload makes it impossible, but Ginn may be too cheap here.