Tue 8/12 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Mariners @ Orioles

Three straight quality starts with four runs over 18 innings and a 23.3 K-BB% for George Kirby.

While Dean Kremer is enjoying a career low 34.8 HardHit%, he’s allowed 12 runs over his last 17 innings, including six barrels (11.3%).

Phillies @ Reds

Ranger Suarez has hit a bit of a wall over his last four starts: 23.1 IP – 15 R – 37.7 GB% - 14.3 K-BB% - 32.5 HardHit%. Yeah, it’s mostly BABIP (.360) and strand rate (64.3%), but also a bit of decline. His fastball and sinker velocity are both down over a mph.

Brady Singer strikeouts L8 starts: 2, 10, 8, 1, 9, 3, 4, 9.

Marlins @ Guardians

Is the party over for Janson Junk? He’s still not walking anybody (2.8%) and that should help, but the strikeout rate is down to 14.9% over his last six starts with a 45.8 HardHit%. That’s a 4.36 ERA and 4.77 xFIP.

Logan Allen had been managing contact well, but is up to a 45.5 HardHit% over his last seven starts. He was running an improved 14.7 K-BB% over the first five of those, but has been blow 10% in each of his last two at home against the Rockies and in New York (NL).

Twins @ Yankees

This is one of two areas of uncertainty on Tuesday. Roster Resource has Thomas Hatch, but the only guy I could find anything about on Twitter was Taj Bradley, who was shipped out after walking three of 12 White Sox without a strikeout. Normally, you wouldn’t think a pitcher going from Tampa Bay to Minnesota (or almost anywhere) would end up better, but there’s also this guy named Joe Ryan.

One quality start with a 4.50 ERA and higher estimators for Carlos Rodon over his last seven starts. That includes just a 10.7 K-BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE, but it includes five road starts (TOR 2x, NYM, MIA, TEX) and just two at home (CHC, PHI). That’s a very rough patch and things should get a bit easier here. The Twins have a 95 wRC+ (23.9 K% vs LHP) on the year, my projected lineup (I have to do more guessing with LHP) has an average 91 wRC+ against LHP, but not with a lot of strikeouts.

On this marginal daily fantasy pitching slate, I have four or five guys who are nearly interchangeable and Rodon is one of them. I have him as a top third of the board value, but closer to the bottom of that pile right now. A more middle of the board value as the second most expensive DK pitcher. It’s so very close that this could easily change with umpiring, forecast change or a different lineup. Unfortunately, I'll only know one of those things during the afternoon update. 

Cubs @ Blue Jays

Ben Brown has struck out 13 of 51 batters without a walk since returning to the big league club. He’s also allowed just three barrels (7.9%) with a 36.8 HardHit%. He’s throwing a few more changeups, but it’s still more than 90% fastball/curve. It would be nice if the contact profile improvement were real, but he’s still at 46.5 HardHit%, 11.3% Barrels/BBE and a 4.44 xERA on the year.

One quality start over Jose Berrios’s last five with a 5.55 ERA, 6.07 FIP, but 4.56 xFIP. His 13 K-BB% over this span is a small improvement over his season rate (12.5%) and 70% of his barrels have left the yard, though that’s still a double digit barrel rate. However, he’s been above a 15 K-BB% in each of his last four too.

We like to keep both of these volatile pitchers in mind because they are often affordable with occasional upside. Both have very tough matchups here and there’s further concern that Brown has been held below 65 pitches in all three appearances since returning. I’m certainly not saying you should avoid attacking them if you think it’s a good spot. I may even so myself, but Brown is $7.5K or less with an All Star level K-BB% and Berrios is the same price on DK. Forget about his $9K price tag on FD. These are not stand out values, but they have some potential.

Braves @ Mets

I want to go back to what I wrote about both of these pitchers before their last start.

"Spencer Strider tied a season low, striking out just three Royals last time out and has gone just five innings in each of his last two starts. The fastball has been very average and hittable this year, but the slider has taken a step up. Still, this is a good, but not the same Strider. His 18.4 K-BB% and 40.3 HardHit% are much worse than prior to surgery, as is the 9.7% Barrels/BBE. His 3.71 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators except for some terrible pitch modeling, which doesn’t like either pitch this year."

Strider struck out six of 24 Brewers with one walk, but lasted just 4.2 innings with five runs allowed on two home runs (two barrels) and a 64.7 HardHit%. His 4.04 ERA now matches his FIP (4.04) and xFIP (4.01). His 96.2 mph average fastball velocity tied a season high 

"Clay Holmes lasted just 3.2 innings in his last start in San Diego and has recorded just two sixth inning outs over his last nine starts, over which he still carries a 58 GB%, but just a 1.5 K-BB%. His 117 innings are nearly twice what he’s thrown each of the previous three seasons with the Yankees with a career high 70 the year before that."

Of course, he goes out and strikes out six Guardians (10 strikeout total over his last four starts) with just a single walk, though he still didn’t go beyond five innings. The Mets pulled him below 80 pitches for the second straight start, but this time it wasn’t performance related.

You can’t pay for Holmes’ issues with workload limitations. Strider gets a park boost and he’s right there with those other five or six guys, maybe a bit closer to the second grouping of top guys than the first. He does get a park upgrade, but I just don’t think the price tag leaves room for much value here. More so on DraftKings.

Nationals @ Royals

To say Mitchell Parker’s peripherals are better over the last month merely means he’s pushed them below five over that span.

Michael Wacha has allowed six runs over his last 30.1 innings, but with just a 12.7 K-BB% (11.7% season). He has been a masterful contact manager this season (33 HardHit%), but still has a 3.96 xERA more than half a run above his 3.36 ERA with an 18.1 K%. Neither his BABIP, strand rate nor home run rate are incredibly off, but they’re all a little sketchy. That xERA is his best non-FIP estimator with contact neutral ones around four and a half.

Parker should be an easy pass except for the part where he’s $5.7K on DraftKings against an offense with 76 wRC+ at home and 77 wRC+ with more strikeouts against LHP. I’m still not endorsing him, but if you need to punt. I have no interest in Wacha above $8K. I can’t make Parker’s numbers say anything special, but the Nationals should have the offensive edge here and Wacha is due for significant regression. I think they’re worth a small shot at +144. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Tigers @ White Sox

Jack Flaherty was smashed up by the Twins last time out. He’s followed his second half of 2024 path more closely than his first half with a 19.7 K-BB%, but that’s still pretty strong. There have been ups and downs. The contact profile is a bit concerning (11.3% Barrels/BBE, 43.4 HardHit%) and he has only three seventh inning outs all season, But also, 20 of his 35 barrels have left the yard and I thought Detroit wasn’t a power friendly park. Pitch modeling (at least PitchingBot) hates him, but all other non-FIP estimators are below four. It's not as bad as the surface stats look. 

This is our second spot of uncertainty and I couldn’t find anything on Twitter, so I tailed Roster Resource on this one. Mike Vasil (former Met semi-prospect) has thrown 75.2 innings, but only three starts with a 3.96 xERA, but no other non-FIP estimators below four and a half.

Flaherty is another one of those top guys on this slate, closer to the top than the bottom of that pack. We like the matchup obviously and I see some value in a price tag below $10K here. He may even be my favorite high priced value on FanDuel.

Pirates @ Brewers

Paul Skenes has struck out 25 of his last 69 batters faced (31.9 K-BB%) and is now up to a 22.8 K-BB% on the season. He’s allowed more than two runs four times all season with a season high of four (once against the Brewers). He’s been above 90 pitches in three straight too, so I guess the Pirates are done with the conservation effort after five starts below 90 prior.

Freddy Peralta has walked 12 of his last 88 batters, but with 23 strikeouts. It’s been a rough schedule with the Dodgers and Cubs during that four start stretch that also includes the Braves and Marlins (two completely average offenses this season against RHP). The most consistent part of Peralta’s game this year has been the 34.1 HardHit% as the strikeouts and walks bounce around.

These are both top pitchers on the slate. In fact, they’d both be the top pitchers if forced to choose. Skenes obviously the better pitcher, Peralta the much superior matchup. However, the Brewers are tearing it up right now and I’m not sure I want to pay $11K for the pleasure of facing them. In the $10K range, Peralta is another top third of the board value, no better or worse than most of those guys though for $500-$1K less than Skenes.

Bullpen stats L30 days

Rockies @ Cardinals

Kyle Freeland has a 7.5 K-BB% with 12.2% Barrels/BBE and a 50.3 HardHit% over his last 11 starts (5.40 ERA/5.49 FIP/4.94 xFIP) and six of them have been on the road without being much better than his home starts. He still does have a near average 12.3 K-BB% on the road, 4.2 points higher than at home.

Matthew Liberatore has a -0.8 K-BB% over his last six starts. He’s allowed 9.4% Barrels/BBE with a 31.3 HardHit% over this span.

Freeland would be the more interesting of these pitchers simply because he costs $5K on DraftKings. And by “interesting” I mean in the same way I described Parker above, as a pure punt arm.

Diamondbacks @ Rangers

Anthony DeSclafani threw a season high 4.1 innings against the Padres last time out. He’s struck out 10 of 49 with three walks in a starting role. He’s been very average over 30 innings overall. All outings at least two innings.

Welp, it seems Jack Leiter’s command has gone the way of (whatever extinct animal you wish to use here). He’s walked at least three in five straight starts (16.4%) and while he still has a 10.9 K-BB% over that span, it’s only a .254 BABIP that’s stopping him from running up pitch counts near 90 after three or four innings. He’s been a bit fortunate that 11 of his 31 barrels (10.9%) have left the park this season, but his 4.05 ERA is now more than half a run below all non-FIP and non-pitch modeling estimators. We all know he has terrific stuff, but he hasn’t figure out a way to consistently command It yet.

You can’t trust Leiter for more than $8K right now, especially on a site where you need quality starts, but for $7.1K on DK, he could pile up some strikeouts here and that’s the most important thing. DeSclafani is another super cheap arm on DK in an interesting spot and maybe he’ll get up to five innigns here. I also have to side with the Diamondbacks (+128) here. DeSclafani has been decent. Leiter is untrustable. His volatility could work for or against him here. The Diamondbacks actually have a 129 wRC+ since the trade deadline. Some regression coming there, but the Texas offenses hasn’t shown that kind of sign of life all season. The Arizona club is still putting a competitive defensive club on the field and have similar bullpen estimators to the Rangers L30 days.

Red Sox @ Astros

Dustin May lasted just 3.2 innings and 20 batters on 91 pitches in his first start for Boston. He sat at his lowest velocity of the season (94.8 mph), as they completely changed his pitch mix, throwing 29.7% fastballs and cutters EACH. He’s combined for 25% usage of the pitches this season. They’re very obviously tinkering with arm angles and stuff and for good reason. Pitch modeling didn’t really love it (4.63 Bot ERA, 88 Pitching+), but it’s a work in progress. They had to do something.

SpAghetti has allowed five runs in each of his last two starts (at MIA & MIN) and has just an 11.3 K-BB% and 45.2 HardHit% through three starts. However, with just two barrels, that’s a 3.74 xERA. Pitch modeling seems to be fine with what he’s throwing and the 14.3 SwStr% is more important than the 21 K% through just three starts. He showed some upside with a 27.1 K% last season.

Two more sub-$7K guys you can use in your DK SP2 spot. Heck, Arrighetti may be one of my sneaky best values on the board. It really looks like he’s throwing better than the results he’s getting.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Dodgers @ Angels

Emmett Sheehan has been fine, but hasn’t exceeded 80 pitches yet and generates just 25.6% of his contact on the ground. Many don’t realize the Angels have been one of the better power hitting teams in the league.

I read an article why Tyler Anderson and several Angels pitchers in general, seem to be such K/SwStr outliers on the low side. I can’t find it and I guess it doesn’t matter. There are always going to be a few outliers to any rules and I guess Anderson is just one of them. There are about a handful of guys I'll accept on either side of that K/SwStr range now and half of them are retired (Wainwright, Colon). 

Padres @ Giants

Nestor Cortes’s first start for the Padres and in four months resulted in as many strikeouts as walks (three each) over 4.2 innings. His velocity was up to 91 mph, above his two Milwaukee starts, but half a mph to a mph below his Yankee years. Pitch modeling hated it more than his previous two starts. None of the numbers are good, but it’s only three starts for a guy with a 17.3 K-BB% in his worst season in four years last year. Each year has been a decline, but projections are still near or slightly worse than league average.

After a couple of rougher ones, Robbie Ray has struck out 14 of his last 51 with three walks in two straight quality starts totaling three runs. Pitch modeling does not like him and the 16.1 K-BB% is more good than elite, but the park can temper the 44.2 HardHit%, though I don’t believe the 7.8% Barrels/BBE with a 39.1 GB% is very sustainable with that much hard contact in the air. The .251 BABIP and 81.7 LOB% should regress, even if the 9.8 HR/FB is fine in this park.

Ray is also one of those backend top five or seven arms tonight, but not particularly a great value close to $10K. As I said, his numbers are more good than great and the Padres don’t strike out. The park almost gets him there though. However, the park should also help Cortes and the Giants have just a 73 wRC+ against LHP. Both teams have great bullpen estimators over the last 30 days, but the Padres probably have the most dominant pen in the league now. I’m a bit reluctantly supporting the Padres (+112) here, despite Cortes.

Rays @ Athletics

Shane Baz has struck out 17 of his last 46 batters, but has also allowed nine runs in as many innings with five barrels and a 47.8 HardHit% against both LA teams. It’s his second two game stretch with eight or more strikeouts in each. He also had double digit strikeouts in two of his first three starts, but just a 24.4 K% on the year because he has no other games with as many as eight strikeouts. A 4.10 Bot ERA is his only estimator not more than a run below his 4.92 ERA with 21 of his 36 barrels leaving the yard in a power friendly park this year. Well, this park is even more power friendly. Baz also has thrown just 18 innings over his last four starts combined. Perhaps the Rays will start to look conserving here, considering he’s already 50 innings past his career high last year.

Following a stretch of 15 runs in 17.1 innings with all five of his barrels leaving the park, Jacob Lopez hasn’t allowed a run over his last 17 innings, striking out a season high 10 of 25 Nationals last time out without a walk. He pushes his K-BB back over 20% in a starting role with just 6.5% Barrels/BBE and a 33.7 HardHit%. He’s been pretty volatile and streaky, but more in the stuff he has less control over.

I don’t really like either of these pitchers in this park, but we’re going to try it again with a LHP against the Rays, who had an 82 wRC+ and 24.4 K% against them going into last night and a 25.4 K-BB% over the last week as an entire offense before beating up on a red hot southpaw. Just a half unit here and going to keep it to F5 (-120) because I don’t know if I can trust this pen without Miller in it anymore.

We'll pick up daily fantasy notes from here on Tuesday.