Monday 8/11 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Phillies @ Reds

It’s always sad when we don’t have Taijuan Walker to exploit on our main daily fantasy slate. With an 80.1 LOB% and 16.2% unearned rate, all estimators are more than two-thirds of a run above his 3.53 ERA. He also has a bit of a reverse split this year, only one point by wOBA, but 41 points by xwOBA. The current structure of the Cincinnati lineup is predominantly right-handed.

It’s always a pleasure when I don’t have to make my brain hurt more than it already does by trying to figure out Andrew Abbott. His 2.34 ERA is more than a run below his best estimator (3.49 xERA). If you’re willing to believe in his 32.7 HardHit%, then that’s as far as we have to go. However, he doesn’t have another non-FIP estimator below four and xERA doesn’t take into account how tough this park is. With just half his barrels leaving the park, which might even be low for Cincinnati, Abbott projects a 3.79 FIP. Over his last two starts, Abbott has walked seven of 54 batters, striking out four, while allowing seven runs over 12 innings.

In a hitter friendly park with hitter friendly weather, we have a pair of pitchers who’s combined ERAs don’t reach six, but with estimators mostly in the fours. Offenses, defenses, bullpens are all somewhere around average and I still think this leads to more than 4.5 runs (-135) over the first five innings. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Twins @ Yankees

Zebby Matthews has posted a 25.3 K-BB% over his last four starts (22.9% over eight on the season). He has still allowed five runs in two of those four and four runs in two others. That makes 18 of his 22 runs allowed in just four of his eight starts. Well, it must be like last year. His contact profile (14% Barrels/BBE, 42.1 HardHit%). It’s not (9.3%, 38%). It’s an unsubstantiated .375 BABIP and 65.4 LOB%. He has great pitch modeling to match strong estimators, but does have a bit of legitimate issue with LHBs (.311 wOBA, .334 xwOBA). On the other hand, his .330 wOBA against RHBs drops to a .295 xwOBA.

We go from one volatile player to another, but Will Warren’s 4.44 ERA is a bit closer to estimators ranging from a 3.61 FIP to a 4.10 dERA. The 26.1 K% is great, but with just a 9.7 SwStr%, 10.6 BB% and 45.1 HardHit%. Those are problems and produce a 4.09 xERA. Warren has an even bigger problem with LHBs (.365 wOBA, .364 xwOBA), over 90 points higher than RHBs.

In a smaller sample, Matthews has been the better pitcher by about three-quarters of a run. While they both have the upside for dominance, Matthews is being punished by things that are much less under his control. The Yankees have the obvious offensive edge, but the Twins are a bit more left-handed since the trade deadline and they did trade away their bullpen, but it’s not like the new Yankee arms have clicked either. Regardless, I show slightly more value on MIN F5 (+130) than full game and I’d rather not deal with these bullpens now. In terms of DFS, I have Matthews rated a bit higher (there may be more strikeouts in the Yankee lineup than Minnesota lineup) and a top half of the board value for less than $8K.

Nationals @ Royals

Before Cavali’s first start…

“Cade Cavalli has been a prospect forever. He’s made just one major league start in 2022 and now projects around four and a quarter runs per nine with Fangraphs slapping a 45 Future Value grade on him. In 15 starts at AAA, he has a competent, but unimpressive 15.7 K-BB%.”

His stuff was anywhere between solid (3.79 Bot ERA) and dominant (115 Pitching+), depending on your pitch modeling system of choice, but there’s no disputing his 97.3 mph fastball and 21.6 SwStr%. He struck out six of 19 A’s with one walk and only two hard hit batted balls. Cavali’s projections have dropped to a bit above four on average.

Bailey Falter has struck out just 33 of his last 264 batters and eight of those in one start against the Tigers. Falter has a 6.3 SwStr% over that span, including following up the Detroit start without a single swing and miss against the Giants and then striking out just two with as many walks in his debut for the Royals. Falter’s best estimator is a 4.40 Bot ERA with RHBs owning a .315 wOBA, but .354 xwOBA against him.

Cade Cavali used 88 pitches to get through 19 batters last time out. I don’t know what his limitations are going to be after a long road back to the majors and would lean against using him against a contact prone offense for around $8K. They’d have to pay me to roster Falter.

Tigers @ White Sox

The good news is that Chris Paddack hasn’t walked any of the 38 batters he’s faced as a Tiger. The bad news is that all five strikeouts were in his first start. He must have a lot of friends still playing for the Twins because he refused to strike any of them out. While he held his tendencies in his first start for the Tigers, it does make sense that he mixed it up against his most recent team with a season low 29.8% four-seamers and more than double the rate of sinkers (17.5%) than any other start. Is this where the Tigers are pushing him or just a surprise for the Twins? The sinkers didn’t lead to any more ground balls.

It now seems like Elvis Peguero will open for Tyler Alexander, who has estimators in the low fours, but projections about half a run higher.

Paddack has a shot at top value on DK for $6.8K and is probably a decent value for $8.5K on FanDuel too. It’s the matchup. Four projected White Sox starters exceed a 28.5 K% vs RHP this year.

Pirates @ Brewers

Striking out just nine of his last 104 batters faced (6.1 SwStr%), Andrew Heaney is down to a 16.4 K% on the season. He’s allowed 16.4% Barrels/BBE with a 51.2 HardHit% over this six outing stretch too. Heaney has a solid 3.84 Bot ERA, but less optimistic 94 Pitching+. Contact neutral estimators are very much in line with his 4.77 ERA, while his FIP and xERA close in on five and a half.

Freddy Peralta has walked 12 of his last 88 batters, but with 23 strikeouts. It’s been a rough schedule with the Dodgers and Cubs during that four start stretch that also includes the Braves and Marlins (two completely average offenses this season against RHP). The most consistent part of Peralta’s game this year has been the 34.1 HardHit% as the strikeouts and walks bounce around.

I actually thought I’d end up on Pittsburgh in this game, as the red hot Brewers climbed too high, but that’s strangely not the case. The Pirates do have a solid defense, but the Brewers are better, while having large starting pitching, offensive and base running edges here. We can stay away from an overachieving Pittsburgh bullpen with an F5 -174. There’s a three pitcher fight for the second spot on the board tonight, but Peralta is my favorite FanDuel value of the three ($9.5K). More marginal on DK (same price).

Rockies @ Cardinals

With all estimators exceeding four and a half and most above five, Chase Dollander was sent back to AAA about a month ago and has struck out 12 of 54 batters over three short starts, walking eight over 11.1 innings (11 runs).

Miles Mikolas has allowed multiple barrels in four straight games and he’s only exceeded five innings in two of those starts. He failed to go beyond four in two of them. He’s allowed 22 barrels over his last seven starts.

Mikolas costs just $6.3K on DraftKings and it is the Rockies on the road and while they are striking out  a bit less with recent lineup changes, there’s still just one projected bat below 21% against RHP on the year. Weather is something to watch here. Google projects temps in the 90s, but then rain cooling it off around 10 degrees in the hour or so before the game.

Diamondbacks @ Rangers

Its not the dynamic peripherals Ryne Nelson produced late last year, but it is at least a league average 13.9 K-BB% since joining the rotation. He’s also struck out eight in each of his last two starts. More impressive that it was the Tigers and Padres. The biggest flaw has been a 50% hard hit rate over his last eight starts. Nelson works best against offenses that struggle against fastballs and that’s why we see him third from the top of the pitch matchup run value ratings.

Nathan Eovaldi has allowed one run or less in 13 of his last 14 starts and gone at least seven inning in three of his last four. Yup, .243 BABIP, 85.7 LOB% and just five home runs on 19 barrels, but also a 21.6 K-BB% and just 6.7% Barrels/BBE with 50.9% of his contact on the ground. Pitch modeling is not on board with him being much better than average, but no other estimator exceeds his 3.09 SIERA.

We can’t really take Arizona’s 116 wRC+ against RHP this year at face value without Naylor & Saurez or Moreno either. Let’s look at some of their more recent work, which includes a…116 wRC+ over the last week. Hmm, that’s not it either. Maybe the 89 average wRC+ of the projected starting nine against RHP this season? The first three + Alexander exceed a 100 wRC+ against RHP this year, but none others reach 95. We also see three below a 16 K% vs RHP, but six above 25% and four above 35%. Eovaldi is one of the three I have fighting for the second overall spot on the board, but I may still be overestimating this Arizona offense a bit, which would boost him up a bit further. The Rangers haven’t been good, but they don’t strike out much either. I would be more interested in the Diamondbacks +140 than Nelson as a daily fantasy arm on Monday night, although, again, I’m not sure I’m regressing the Arizona offense enough here.

Red Sox @ Astros

Garrett Crochet has struck out at least eight in 14 of his 23 starts with a 24.4 K-BB% overall (27.6% L12). He’s better against LHBs, but held RHBs below a .285 wOBA and xwOBA too, so Houston shouldn’t be much of a problem. Crochet has the best pitch modeling on the board, but still a 3.20 Bot ERA that’s his only estimator reaching three.

I’ve been a bit skeptical about Cristian Javier running strikeout rates not supported by his swinging strike rate in the past. Without a walk rate below 8% in any season of his major league career, he’s not the kind of elite command guy that you’d suspect would get more called strikes than usual. At least sustainably so. However, as he returns from Tommy John, even I’m surprised to find estimators averaging between four and a half and five. His minor league rehab starts have been short an unimpressive. He did finish up by striking out six of 16 in his last start, but has also walked eight of his last 31 batters faced.

Crochet is my top overall pitcher with a little bit of distance between him and the second place pack. He’s my top value on FanDuel and I don’t think that will change. I also have him as a top six to eight value on DraftKings, but they’re almost all packed pretty closely together, except for a pair of cheaper pitchers (Paddack & Darvish) potentially jumping out).

Dodgers @ Angels

Yoshi Yama has seven inning quality starts of one run or less in three of his last six starts. He missed a quality start with 5.2 shutout innings last time out, but the other two of the last six were not good. His 20.5 K-BB% is still great, but more than two points below last year and it’s just been inconsistent. While his contact profile has improved with 52.1% of his contact on the ground, just 5.5% Barrels/BBE and a league average hard hit rate, he’s gone five innings or fewer in nine of his 22 starts. The good news is that seven of nine projected Angels have at least a 25 K% vs RHP this year, but seven of nine are also right-handed, against Yamamoto’s reverse split. However, he has improved to a .280 wOBA and .291 xwOBA against them.

Jose Soriano generates exactly two-thirds of his contact on the ground, allowing him to generate just 8% Barrels/BBE on a 48 HardHit%. Half of his 24 starts have been two run or less quality starts and one third of his starts have been seven inning quality starts with two runs or less, but he also has just a 9.9 K-BB%.

I’m generally lower on Yamamoto and Soriano than the rest of the population, the former due to inconsistencies and workload issues at a high price. The latter due to that hard hit rate and K-BB%. Yamamoto is my number five overall arm with the chance to dominate, but again, I don’t love the price. I don’t think he does it often enough to justify that price. I have Soriano as a middle of the board value on FanDuel for $8.1K because of those QS odds. I also think the Angels may be a bit too large a dog here (+149). The Dodgers have been an average offense on the road and have had a poor defense and bullpen.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Padres @ Giants

This is the one spot of uncertainty on Monday night, but to be honest, it probably would be even if Yu Darvish were confirmed. After stinking up the joint over his first four starts, he dominated the Mets over seven innings in a fashion that couldn’t be faked and followed that up striking out five of 16 Diamondbacks, but only lasting four innings (three runs). I’m not sure why he left after just 72 pitchers and just five base runners though. The Padres pushed him to a season high 83 pitches in his second start without reaching 80 since. Maybe this is going to be a problem going forward. Darvish is only up to a 10.1 K-BB%, but with a 36.1 HardHit%. His 3.66 xERA matches Webb’s.

Having struck out 21 of his last 51 batters, allowing two runs over 11.2 innings, can we stop worrying about Logan Webb? Okay, I understand both starts were against Pittsburgh, but it’s still utter dominance and he’s back up to a career best 21.3 K-BB% with his lowest hard hit rate (40.6%) in three years. His 3.69 xERA is more than half a run above every other estimator except a 3.22 Bot ERA.

Great park where I think Darvish can still be a strong value, especially for $6.6K on DraftKings. He or Paddack are a toss up for my SP2 right now. The Giants have hit RHP better than you’d think, but the park neutralizes a lot of that and there are some strikeouts in that lineup. Webb is just a workload monster, who now has a much higher ceiling. The Padres may be the lowest strikeout offense in the league since jettisoning Maldonado, but considering the park, Webb is still one of the three guys I have fighting for the second overall spot behind Crochet and a decent top five to seven value on either site. He has failed to record sixth inning outs in just one-fifth of his starts.

Rays @ Athletics

With a nine start 21.5 K-BB% stretch, it looked like Ryan Pepiot had put it together, despite a 4.11 ERA over that span (4.79 FIP/3.45 xFIP, 11 HRs on 15 Barrels – 12.4%). He’s followed up with a 34.9 HardHit% and just three barrels over his last three starts, but 12 runs (nine earned) in 15.2 innings with a 10.3 K-BB%. Pitch modeling seems to love Pepiot, but the rest of his season non-FIP estimators sit a bit above his 3.77 ERA (3.87 dERA – 4.00 xFIP). His biggest issue has been RHBs (.343 wOBA, .341 xwOBA) and he transitions to a more power friendly park against a predominantly right-handed lineup. Not great.

Three straight quality starts with a total of four runs allowed for Jeffrey Springs and a 22.6 K-BB% over his last five. His season xERA is now down to 4.01, aligned with his 3.89 ERA, while additional estimators remain half a run higher. The thing is, Springs has always been a strong contact manager and that remains true this year, even with the poor peripherals, but if he’s going to explode on that end…? Springs actually has a 3.99 ERA and 12.8 K-BB% at home this season.

I don’t want to meddle with Tampa Bay’s bullpen, but I’ll happily take the home dog (-104) F5 with two pitchers going in opposite directions and the much better offense. It’s even insane how much worse the Tampa Bay defense has been. Sacramento has finally dropped below Coors in terms of run environment (I update from Statcast at the end of every month), but it’s still a firm second highest run environment and we’re not messing with daily fantasy pitchers here.

I'll try to add more daily fantasy notes in the afternoon. 

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results.