Friday 8/8 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Reds @ Pirates

Chase Burns was chased from his second start at Fenway after just one out and a full trip through the lineup. He also went just an inning in that train wreck at the raceway last weekend before it was suspended, so he still really only has five full major league starts and has struck out at least seven in each of them, including exactly 10 in each of his last three. A 36.4 K% that’s backed by a 15.4 SwStr% will make most other issues like a few too many walks and a hard hit rate near 50%, more tolerable. He has a 3.61 xERA, but Tarik Skubal pitch modeling with no other estimators reaching three. His hard hit rate drops below 45% if you remove the Boston game too.

I don’t know why the Pirates didn’t sell high on Mitch Keller, but 10.9 K-BB% over his last five starts has dropped his season rate to 12.9%. He doesn’t allow many barrels (6.8%), but with a league average ground ball rate and 42.8 HardHit%, that could increase. He’s smack middle of the board in the pitch matchup ratings below, whether by pure run value or with very average pitch modeling included. In fact, all non-FIP estimators exceed his 3.89 ERA, but only run as high as a 4.26 SIERA. We can give him some lenience since Pittsburgh destroys right-handed power.

Keller is a league average pitcher and that’s fine, but Burns may already be a star. Considering Cincinnati’s offensive edge (eight points Home/Road wRC+, 17 points vs RHP), their comparable defense, closer bullpen gap that what appears because the Pirates traded away top arms, and much better base running, How aren’t the Reds larger favorites here? Let’s start with a full unit on the Reds F5 (-108) and then add another half one for the full game (100). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. I don’t hate playing Pittsburgh to stay under their run total either.

Athletics @ Orioles

Despite walking five of 22 Diamondbacks last time out, J.T. Ginn supports a 53.7 GB% with a solid 16.7 K-BB% through 48.1 innings. There are some issues in the contact profile (9.6% Barrels/BBE, 49.3 HardHit%) and major discrepancies in his pitch modeling where PitchingBot thinks the sinker he throws more than half the time is average (49), while Pitching+ believes it to be elite (126). The pitch has certainly performed well enough (0.9 RV/100) and it just so happens that the Orioles mirror his success, as a bottom five offense against sinkers (-0.9 wSI/C).

Would you look at that? The .236 BABIP and 87.8 LOB% Tomo Sugano held through his first 12 starts has come crashing down to .350 and 68.2% over his last nine. With his K-BB dropping to 8.6% from 10% too, you might imagine the disaster this has become (34 runs over 43 innings) and we didn’t even get to the 15.1% Barrels/BBE over this more recent stretch. Sugano’s 4.42 ERA is still below all of his season estimators.

Ginn may be cheap enough for an SP2 flier ($6.3K), while I currently have Sugano as a bottom third of the board value. In addition, I have Ginn a full run better, the A’s may have the better lineup at this point, while both defenses are terrible and the A’s lost Miller, but Baltimore has the second worst bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days. I don’t have full confidence in my Ginn projections yet, but enough for half a unit as dogs (+102).

Astros @ Yankees

Hunter Brown has bounced back from a three start rough stretch (15 IP, 13 R) with just two runs over his last 12 innings with a 16.7 K-BB%. Still at 22.7% on the season with just a 32.5 HardHit% (5.8% Barrels/BBE), Brown has some question pitch modeling, particularly PitchingBot, which conflicts with Pitching+ on many of his secondaries, but no other estimator above a 3.12 SIERA.

Cam Schlittler throws gas with some strong pitch modeling (mostly on the fastball), but some fairly marginal results with an 11.4 K-BB% and 41.1 HardHit%. All non-pitch modeling estimators exceed four, running as high as a 5.01 xERA and 5.96 FIP with five of his six barrels leaving the yard. Additionally, while the Astros are up to three LHBs regularly now, RHBs have a .391 wOBA and .411 xwOBA against Schiltter so far.

Brown Schlittler may have surpassed Pfaadt Abbott as my favorite pitching matchup of the year and I think both pitchers are usable here. Schlittler in the same way as Ginn, but a wider range of outcomes and a bit more upside. I’m not saying the Yankees are all fixed with Judge back and six in the projected lineup exceed a 24 K% against RHP this year, but this is not the slate for an expensive Brown in a dangerous spot. I have at least 10 pitchers on this elite pitching board ahead of him overall.

Angels @ Tigers

Kyle Hendricks has a 12.2 K% over his last five starts.

Tarik Skubal has four double digit strikeout games in his last 10 and one of the two that he didn’t was the Blue Jays (seven). He’s been above a 16 SwStr% in five of his last six. The Angels are likely to run eight RHBs at him, but they’re still below a .265 wOBA and xwOBA against him and six of the nine are above a 24.5 K% vs LHP this year, five above 29%.

Tarik Skubal is your obvious slam dunk top pitcher on the board with the highest score I’ve had for a pitcher this year. He’s my current top FD value and far enough ahead that I don’t think anyone can catch him. Skubal is also a top five DK value for me. There are some pivots, but the biggest concern here would be ownership.

Marlins @ Braves

Edward Cabrera walked three Cardinals two starts back, but immediately righted the ship and now has walked just five of his last 140 batters faced (20.7 K-BB%). He’s reaching his All-Star level upside and also keeping the ball on the ground 55.7% of the time when he’s doing it. With that K-BB and GB rate, a 43.9 HardHit% is fine. I can’t conceive how his Bot ERA increased during this stretch (4.29), but his Pitching+ is 109, joining the rest of his estimators dropping below four on the season.

Bryce Elder posted just his second quality start in his last eight last time out (36.2 IP, 38 R). He’s generated just a 4.2 K-BB%, 9.4% Barrels/BBE and 46.4 HardHit% over this span. In his case, I’m buying the 4.74 Bot ERA more than than the 100 Pitching.

Cabrera is my sixth best FD arm (close to several other pitchers) and my seventh best DK pitcher and a solid value for $8.2K on either site. The Braves are a perfectly average offense that strikes out maybe slightly more than average against RHP.

Guardians @ White Sox

There’s no way you can disguise Tanner Bibee’s third year drop from a 20.1 K-BB% to 14.6%. You could say he’s at 18.7% over his last 13 starts, but has also been below 15% in five of his last six. The good news is that with the contact profile remaining average, you can claim some misfortune in his 4.54 ERA and 4.50 FIP with 21 of his 31 barrels leaving the yard. Additional estimators run mostly in the upper threes to barely above four, which is fine…for a mid-rotation arm. The majority of the decline has been in the fastball (38 PitchingBot, 80 Pitching+), which was never above average, but also probably why he’s dropped it from over 40% usage to 26.2% this year.

I still can’t believe Aaron Civale talked his way out of Milwaukee and didn’t even get moved at the deadline, but you have to give him credit for his last three starts: 17.1 IP – 1 R (0 ER) – 27.9 K-BB% - 21.1 HardHit%. The only significant pitch usage alteration has been more curveballs (24.1% from around 15%). The pitch owns a 68 PB grade and 115 P+ over this span. I’m not saying he’s going to continue it. Almost all of his estimators still exceed four and a half, but his 3.85 xERA is actually below his 3.99 ERA.

From a daily fantasy perspective, a league average pitcher against the White Sox is my number three overall arm and a great value for less than $8.5K. At $7.6K, he may be the top DK value on the board. Four projected White Sox bats exceed a 29 K% vs RHP with one more above 24%. That said, the Guardians have an 83 wRC+ on the road and 92 vs RHP, while I only have Bibee half a run ahead of Civale. The Cleveland bullpen should start feeling the loss of Clase soon too. The Whtie Sox have been playing much better baseball and I think they deserve better than +138.

Phillies @ Rangers

Cristopher Sanchez allowed four runs in Chicago (AL) two starts back. He followed it up with eight shutout innings against the Tigers and had a streak of six one run starts and 10 with two runs or less prior to the White Sox. He has just two starts of less than seven innings in his last 10 and one (White Sox) by only a single out. Sanchez has faced at least 28 batters in five straight (at least 29 in four) and has posted a 22.7 K-BB% with a 60 GB% (4.6% Barrels/BBE) over the previously mentioned four start stretch.

I’m always curious what (if anything) traded pitchers change in their first few starts with a new team. Merrill Kelly threw his lowest rate of cutters (5.8%) since his second start (20.5% season and only one more below 10% since his second start) and his highest rate of changeups (39.1%) all season. Exactly five points more than his previous high and 13.1 points above his season rate. Considering it was the Mariners, the changeup makes sense and has been a strongly graded pitch for him all season, while the cutter (46 PB, 100 P+) has been average. With a 16.6 K-BB% and average contact profile overall, Kelly’s 3.22 ERA is below all estimators, but only is Bot ERA (4.37) reaches four.

With large pitching and lineup edges, I couldn’t resist the Phillies at just -122 (F5) here. Other sites are quite a bit higher than FD. While Merrill Kelly is fine, but doesn’t do much for me on this slate. I have Cabrera rated slightly better for cheaper, Sanchez would be my Skubal pivot. He’s my second favorite arm overall and the second best FD value behind Skubal, who he may overtake in workload. He’s also a top five DK value for me.

Royals @ Twins

Seth Lugo ran a seven start 21.2 K-BB% that almost had me rethinking things, but over his last two, he’s walked as many Jays and Braves (eight) as he’s struck out. He still has a league average 13.3 K-BB% on the season with 10.1% Barrels/BBE and a 45.7 HardHit%. His .251 BABIP and 85.4 LOB% are primary reasons his 3.06 ERA is well below his BEST estimators (4.25 SIERA, 4.25 xFIP). Add in the contact and he’s got a 4.91 xERA. 

In four starts back from the IL Kodai Senga has been all out of sorts, facing more than 20 batters and going more than four innings just once, allowing 11 runs over 16 innings with a 3.8 K-BB% and seven barrels (14.6%). There’s nothing different in his pitch usage and the velocity is only down slightly, but he just can’t command anything. Senga garnered only a 13.9 O-Swing%. He lives off of getting ahead and having batters chase the ghost fork in the dirt. While pitch modeling isn’t to be trusted because of the ghost fork complications, he still doesn’t have a single estimator within a run and a half of his 2.31 ERA (85.6 LOB%, eight home runs on 19 barrels) with contact neutral ones above four.

Mets @ Brewers

In four starts back from the IL Kodai Senga has been all out of sorts, facing more than 20 batters and going more than four innings just once, allowing 11 runs over 16 innings with a 3.8 K-BB% and seven barrels (14.6%). There’s nothing different in his pitch usage and the velocity is only down slightly, but he just can’t command anything. Senga garnered only a 13.9 O-Swing%. He lives off of getting ahead and having batters chase the ghost fork in the dirt. While pitch modeling isn’t to be trusted because of the ghost fork complications, he still doesn’t have a single estimator within a run and a half of his 2.31 ERA (85.6 LOB%, eight home runs on 19 barrels) with contact neutral ones above four.

Brandon Woodruff has stunned everyone after missing more than a season and a half with sketch rehab reports (13.5 K-BB%) and reduced velocity (-2.6 mph from 2023, but up to 94 mph, still down 1.8 mph, in his last start). All he’s done is post four quality starts with two runs or less in his first five with a 31.7 K-BB%. WHAT!?!? Oh, just reduce your fastball usage (still 59 PB, 111 P+ this year) and develop a cutter.

I don’t know what’s going on with the Mets bats. They should be better than Milwaukee (and still are slightly), while the Mets should also be one of the dominant bullpens in the game, but the starting pitching is a mess. Woodruff has been miles ahead of Senga, especially lately and perhaps a significant reason why is the Brewers have a far better defense. I’m playing another F5 home time here (-130 seems far too low). That said, I’m not on either pitcher on this slate. I rate Woodruff well overall and he might even be a top pitcher on many other nights, but I have seven or eight pitchers ahead of him (no more than 88 pitches yet) with a top five price tag.

Bullpen stats L30 days....(we should be starting to see some of the effects of the trade deadline)

Cubs @ Cardinals

Matthew Boyd had a one start bombing against Milwaukee (5 BB, 2 K), but followed it up with seven shutout innings against the Orioles, striking out eight without a walk, allowing just four hits. He has at least seven inning quality starts in four of his last six, allowing just two runs total over the five not against Milwaukee, but also five quality starts with two runs or less in the six starts before that. Boyd had a 19.2 K-BB% over his last six and a 17.3% mark on the season that’s nearly two points better than his career rate (15.6%). He’s done this with a solid contact profile, projecting estimators ranging from a 3.18 FIP to a 3.84 xFIP. Still well above his 2.34 ERA (81.1 LOB%, 11 home runs on 30 barrels), but the Cubs would have signed for his actual peripherals in a minute.

Michael McGreevy’s 14.1 K% is probably unplayable against anyone, never mind the Cubs.

Although McGreevy costs just $5.6K on DraftKings and could pop 12-15 points, I think we’re best served paying a bit more for some much higher upside arms. Boyd, on the other hand, I have as a back end top seven arm, though his price tag won’t have me jamming into lineups. He is probably playable though and I can’t imagine he’ll garner much ownership on this slate.

Rockies @ Diamondbacks

Austin Gomber has just a 37 HardHit%, but still a 5.21 xERA.

Zac Gallen’s first quality start in four outings last time out, two runs in Sacramento of all places. You could point to the 64.8 LOB%, but all of his estimators exceed four. The only thing he has going for him here is the matchup and that does make him playable for $8K or less, but the Rockies have actually lowered their strikeout rates from atrocious to just below average. Seven of nine projected are between a 22.7% and 28.4% strikeout rate against RHP.

Red Sox @ Padres

Walker Buehler has a -3.3 K-BB% over his last eight starts and the Padres project three guys above a 17.5 K% vs RHP this year.

Nick Pivetta has struck out just 14 of his last 70 (Cards twice, Nats), but is still barely above a 20 K-BB% on the season (20.6%) and Petco has helped with the home run ball this year (14 of 36 barrels). The 2.73 ERA is still a bit flukish, due to the .237 BABIP, but even his worst estimator is still a 3.72 xERA.

Why am I showing Buehler as a reasonable value on DK? Oh, he’s all the way down to $5.4K. I don’t recommend it. I have Pivetta as a backend top five arm overall on either site, but another guy who is just a marginal value at a high price. Pitcher friendly park, but the Red Sox are another lineup that’s cut down on strikeouts. Just four above 19% vs RHP.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Ray @ Mariners

Drew Rasmussen is being stretched back out again with pitch counts between 73 and 81 over his last three starts (4 R – 14.1 IP – 23.2 K-BB%). The last two of those starts were the Yankees and Dodgers. With a 16.5 K-BB% and 51.2 GB%, the workload (or lack thereof) is the only reason you’re not hearing more about him this year. Estimators are a bit higher than his 2.81 ERA with an 80.6 LOB%, but still almost all in the lower threes with excellent pitch modeling.

The park continues to shelter Luis Castillo, who’s allowed just 13 home runs on 39 barrels (10%) this year. His velocity continues to drop (95.2 mph on the season is a career low and just 94.2 mph in his last start). He’s also fortunate to not have to face a lot of LHBs in his division (.352 wOBA & xwOBA against him). The Rays can’t do anything about the park, but will bring the LHBs. Castillo’s 14.2 K-BB% is a career low and more than five points below his average of the previous three seasons.

I still don’t think Rasmussen will have enough of a workload to pay for, even in this park, but the Rays are just five points of wRC+ lower against RHP (though SEA is probably better than that now) and are tied for the top pen estimators in the league over the last 30 days, while the Mariners are bottom half of the league. Shockingly, both teams have been terrible defensively and the Rays are a much better base running team. I’m with the road team (+112) against the declining Castillo.

Blue Jays @ Dodgers

Three out of four quality starts for Max Scherzer, who has a 28 K-BB% over that span and 22.1% over eight starts on the season and he’s not facing bottom feeder offenses on the season either. Scherzer, velocity steady with his 2022 season with the Mets at 93.9 mph, is showing that he can still be quite effective when healthy. He’s not generating much ground contact at all (24.8%) and that’s led to 11% Barrels/BBE with just a 34.9 HardHit%, but still just a 3.66 xERA. Estimators are very split on him, but I’m not buying the 4.55 FIP with 75% of his barrels leaving the yard.

Clayton Kershaw is doing it a bit more on smoke and mirrors with just an 8.8 K-BB% (6.8% last five starts), but is still managing contact well (44.5 HardHit%, 48.8 GB%, resulting in 4.7% Barrels/BBE). His estimators are all still at least two-thirds of a run above his 3.29 ERA though with the worst Bot ERA on the slate.

This classic matchup from 2015 will be brought to you Friday night by…What? This is actually happening in 2025?

Listen, Scherzer looks like he can still go, while Kershaw is struggling out there and the red hot Blue Jays with their prowess against LHP might actually have the better offense with the Dodgers stuck in mediocrity over the last month or so. The Blue Jays add a massive edge in defense with Varsho back and have the better bullpen too. Sure, Scherzer could fall off the mound and break a hip, which is why I’ll go against my urges to go more than a unit on the Blue Jays (+130). I also have Scherzer as a top five arm here and a solid source of some cheaper value, especially below $8K on DK.

Nationals @ Giants

Jake Irvin has a 3.1 K-BB% over his last seven starts with a 50% hard hit rate and his season rates aren’t that much better.

This is our only spot of uncertainty. It could be Kai-Wei Teng behind an opener. He threw 11 innings in relief for the Giants last year and was used mostly as a reliever at AAA, but did start and work up to five innings in four of his first five outings (35 Ks, 74 BF) before debuting as a starter this season, lasting three innings, striking out four of 18 Mets, but walking three and allowing five runs.

We'll pick up with daily fantasy notes below in the afternoon.