Wednesday 8/6 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Giants @ Pirates

Robbie Ray is coming off seven one run innings, striking out six of 26 Mets. A .244 BABIP and 82.1 LOB% carry a lot of the responsibility for a 2.85 ERA with a 3.35 xERA his only estimator below three and a half Despite it’s continuing success (-0.9 RV/100), pitch modeling still hates his slider (34 PitchingBot, 83 Pitching+). It will be interesting because the Pirates are the worst slider hitting team in the league (-1.11 wSL/C). Like many San Franciso pitchers, Ray has been a bit more power prone on the road with two more home runs allowed in around 50 fewer PAs than at home.

Andrew Heaney’s 3.81 Bot ERA is so far out of line with his other estimators and even a 94 Pitching+, that you have to wonder what they see in his fastball (58 PB, 92 P+, -0.78 RV/100). His next best estimator is a 4.71 xFIP. He’s allowed 18 runs (17 earned) over his last 17.1 innings and that’s over five starts. There are no longer any positives to derive here.

The interesting thing here is that the Giants may not any offensive edge here. Go ahead and look at the numbers above. Now look at the defenses and see how much the Giants loose with Bailey almost certainly not catching the day after a night game. The Pirates did trade away a few arms, so I don’t expect their bullpen to hold out, but I’m still of the mind that this line (+132) is too large. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Orioles @ Phillies

Two-thirds of Trevor Rogers’ starts have been quality starts of more than six innings with no more than one run. Seven of his nine runs allowed have come in the other three starts.

Ranger Suarez has gone at least seven innings in eight of his last 15 starts and has just a 29.6 HardHit% (3.12 xERA) on the year.

Guardians @ Mets

Four quality starts in his last five for Gavin Williams, three of them with at least eight strikeouts and a total of six runs allowed over that span. He’s dropped his fastball usage (29.6%) and picked up a sinker (11.5%) during this stretch, but is really mixing up five pitches between those two marks, as opposed to a guy who was throwing 50% fastballs previously.

Just an 11.8 K-BB% for David Peterson, but with 54.7% of his contact on the ground. An 11.1% unearned rate and just seven of his 23 barrels leaving the park keeps his 2.83 ERA more than three-quarters of a run below non-FIP estimators.

Twins @ Tigers

This is our only area of uncertainty. It would be Joe Ryan’s normal turn and Roster Resource is listing him, but he is unconfirmed and Twins Twitter isn’t so sure. I’m skeptical we see him here, but would have Ryan as a small dog (+120 area) in Detroit.

Joe Ryan’s 3.55 xFIP is his worst estimator. Jack Flaherty’s 3.51 SIERA is his best.

Reds @ Cubs

I’m not going to try to figure out Andrew Abbott when I really have no interest in the game otherwise.

Five of Cade Horton’s last eight starts have gone scoreless. He’s allowed a total of 17 runs (14 earned) in the other three.

Yankees @ Rangers

Carlos Rodon has struck out 17 of his last 42 batters with a 16.2 SwStr%. Great, huh? He’s allowed four home runs (three barrels – 15.8%) and seven runs over those 10 innings to the Phillies and Marlins.

It’s hard to say Jack Leiter is finally commanding his pitches well, walking 14 of his last 93 batters, but he’s also struck out 27 with just four barrels and a 37.3 HardHit% over that span.

Blue Jays @ Rockies

Kevin Gausman has bookended 36.2 innings of nine run ball (16.7 K-BB%) with seven and five run outings. However, he only allowed six base runners when five Royals scored, striking out five without  a walk. A 4.31 dERA is his only estimator above a 3.99 ERA on the season.

Kyle Freeland failed to strike out a single one of the 12 Guardians he faced in Cleveland before he was pulled for unknown reasons last time out. He wasn’t pitching that poorly (three hits, no walks). Yes, his 8.1 K-BB% at Coors is 4.2 points lower than on the road. There’s not much positive to say here, especially against a Toronto offense with a 110 wRC+ and few strikeouts against LHP.

I’m tempted to play the Blue Jays to eclipse their 6.5 (-122) team run total. That sounds crazy, but it’s going to be in the upper 90s. Colorado adds a terrible defense and bullpen to the equation as well. 

Rays @ Angels

Despite a 4.79 ERA, Shane Baz’s worst non-FIP estimator (20 home runs on 32 barrels) is a 4.08 Bot ERA. However, he may not fare well against a predominantly right-handed lineup (.340 wOBA, .345 xwOBA against him this year).

Tyler Anderson’s 4.49 ERA is in line with his 4.52 xERA and Bot ERA, but all other estimators exceed five.

Cardinals @ Dodgers

Matthew Liberatore has a -0.9 K-BB% over his last five starts and hasn’t completed five innings in any of his last three.

Shohei Ohtani threw three innings for a third straight start, but faced a season high 16 batters on a season high 51 pitches before leaving with a minor injury. He was up a mph over his previous three starts to 98.7 on average. Ohtani has allowed just a single barrel with a 26.8 HardHit%.

Bullpen L30 days...

Astros @ Marlins

SpAghetti made just a pair of starts before hitting the IL and remaining there since the beginning of April. His three rehab starts (two at AA) didn’t indicate anything special, but considering his 16.8 K-BB% last season, I think projections around four and a half are a bit underwhelming if he’s healthy.

Jansen Junk’s 2.3 BB% is driving estimators that are very much in line with his 3.86 ERA. However, I would be concerned with the 48.8 HardHit% and 39.7 GB%. I don’t know how he’s only allowed 5.8% Barrels/BBE.

Athletics @ Nationals

Two straight quality starts for Jeffrey Springs and a 21.8 K-BB% over his last four. If he can maintain anything close to that with his 37.5 HardHit%....well, that’s what the A’s have been hoping on since acquiring him from Tampa Bay. He’s done this against some tough offenses too. Seattle and Toronto in Sacramento and Houston and Cleveland on the road. I’m not really doing in depth daily fantasy notes on an awful Wednesday night slate, but Springs would be my likely SP2 on DraftKings at this point ($6.8K). Against LHP, the Nationals projected lineup has a ton of strikeouts in it.

Cade Cavalli has been a prospect forever. He’s made just one major league start in 2022 and now projects around four and a quarter runs per nine with Fangraphs slapping a 45 Future Value grade on him. In 15 starts at AAA, he has a competent, but unimpressive 15.7 K-BB%.

Royals @ Red Sox

Michael Wacha has allowed three hits or less in four straight starts (12.5 K-BB%, .152 BABIP). He has allowed just a 33.1 HardHit% this year, so his 3.94 xERA is the closest non-FIP estimator to his 3.38 ERA. Wacha is currently my number four arm on a 10 pitcher slate and a decent value on DraftKings ($7.4K).

Dustin May’s velocity is up nearly a mph (96.3) over his last four outings. He has a K-BB% above 22% in two of those, but below 5% in the other two. He’s allowed at least three runs in two-thirds of his starts this season. The stuff just isn’t the same, as illustrated by a 4.01 Bot ERA that’s nearly a run above his previous career worst and a 97 Pitching+ at least 10 points below his next worst season. Those are also his only estimators more than half a run better than his 4.85 ERA. May is nearly cheap enough, but would still be a tough roster in this park against a team that doesn’t strike out against RHP. Right now, he'd be my fourth or fifth best value on DraftKings.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Brewers @ Braves

Jose Quintana has an estimator range from 4.65 (dERA) to 5.03 (Bot ERA), clearly stating who he is. Yet, he also has a .350 ERA. He has a .270 BABIP with a great defense behind him. He had a .263 BABIP when the Mets had a better defense last year. His strand and home run rates are within normal ranges. However, 17.1% of his runs  have been unearned and there you go. RHBs go from a .307 wOBA to a .355 xwOBA against him. Quintana certainly doesn’t have enough DFS upside for us in this spot.

Spencer Strider tied a season low, striking out just three Royals last time out and has gone just five innings in each of his last two starts. The fastball has been very average and hittable this year, but the slider has taken a step up. Still, this is a good, but not the same Strider. His 18.4 K-BB% and 40.3 HardHit% are much worse than prior to surgery, as is the 9.7% Barrels/BBE. His 3.71 ERA is within one-fifth of a run of all estimators except for some terrible pitch modeling, which doesn’t like either pitch this year.

Strider would still be my top pitcher on an ugly slate and either my second or third best value, but I have to side with the Brewers (+120) here. I have this game almost dead even. While I still have a good (not great) Strider around two-thirds of a run ahead of Quintana with comparable defenses, the Brewers are soundly ahead offensively, in the bullpen and on the bases.

Padres @ Diamondbacks

Nestor Cortes served up five home runs to the Yankees on Opening Day and followed up with six shutout innings against the Reds. That’s the entirety of his Milwaukee career. The new Padre has struck out 16 of 54 AAA batters through rehab. His K-BB% has dropped every year since his 2021 breakout with the Yankees, but to a low of 17.3% last year. He’s probably still a decent pitcher and probably stretched out enough for this start, but even this revamped Arizona lineup only has two projected batters above a 21.4 K% against LHP this year and one of those is a projection (Locklear).

Anthony DeSclafani has just two starts, but has gone between two and four innings in all nine of his appearances for Arizona this year with a competent 13.4 K-BB% and 36.5 HardHit%, along with an above average ground ball rate (45.8%).

White Sox @ Mariners

Jonathan Cannon has allowed 12 runs (11 earned) over his last 10.1 innings with four home runs on five barrels (15.6%), despite striking out 12 of 48 batters. Estimators range from a 4.38 Bot ERA to a 5.14 dERA, but most are within a quarter run of his 4.77 ERA. LHBs are above a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year.

It still doesn’t look like the George Kirby we’re used to with a 6.1 BB% that’s nearly double his career rate, but his 25.2 K% is in line with career norms, as are the 8.1% Barrels/BBE he’s allowing with a 44.9 GB%. Five of his last seven have been quality starts with a 27.7 K% over his last five. Kirby would be my number two overall, but my favorite FanDuel value, where he’s $700 less than on DK and $800 less than Strider on FD.