Tuesday 8/5 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Giants @ Pirates

Logan Webb sort of got right against these Pirates last time out. He struck out 11 of 26 with a 60% ground ball rate, allowing a single run over 5.2 innings, but also walked four.

Mike Burrows has posted his first two quality starts of the season last two times out, allowing a single run over 12 innings, striking out 12 of 43 batters with two walks.

Twins @ Tigers

Along with Zebby Matthews’ elite 22.8 K-BB% comes 9.6% Barrels/BBE, projecting a 4.11 xERA that’s far behind any of his other estimators.

Chris Paddack threw six innings of three hit shutout ball, striking out five Diamondbacks without a walk in his first start for the Tigers. Pitch modeling has unnatural love for his changeup (23.5%, 74 PitchingBot, 128 Pitching+), but batters from either side of the plate are still between a .311 and .346 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Astros @ Marlins

Our only uncertainty for Tuesday belongs with the Astros. Roster Resource has SpAghetti making this start, but more recent news has AJ Blubaugh potentially making this start with Arrighetti pushed back to Wednesday. Blubaugh made his major league debut with four innings against the Tigers on April 30^th. He struck out six of 19, but allowed five unearned runs, along with two earned. He has a 13.1 BB% at AAA and projects between four and half and five runs per nine.

Cal Quantrill has a 16.3 K-BB% over his last 13 starts, but the Marlins haven’t let him go past 20 batters with a high of 87 pitches over his last eight starts. RHBs still have a .409 wOBA and .374 xwOBA against him this year.

Athletics @ Nationals

In back to back starts in Houston and at home against the Mariners, Luis Severino has struck out 14 of 46 batters, allowing three runs over 12 innings with two walks. One predominantly right-handed lineup, but also a predominantly left-handed lineup in the park he has so much trouble in. His road K-BB (8.6%) is still exactly two points lower than his home mark and I do have concern with how many LHBs he’ll face here (.335 wOBA, .365 xwOBA) or I’d lean more towards the Athletics (+120 full game, +124 F5) here.

Mackenzie Gore has a 4.3 K-BB% over his last seven starts (28% first 14).

Orioles @ Phillies

Dean Kremer is facing Taijuan Walker in a game off the main daily fantasy slate without an edge that I can find. Seems like the perfect skip.

Royals @ Red Sox

Over seven starts for the Padres, Ryan Bergert only allowed 11 runs in 31.2 innings, but he did so with just a 10.4 K-BB% and 29.8 GB%. That’s not going to play well at Fenway, even with a solid contact profile. Bergert’s best estimator is a 4.24 Bot ERA with a massive reverse split (RHBs .337 wOBA, .413 xwOBA), more bad news at Fenway. This, despite going fastball/slider around 85% of the time.

Since May 21^st, Garrett Crochet has just one start where he’s failed to strike out at least seven batters. Nine of his 22 starts are quality starts of at least seven innings with two runs or less and he missed another by a single out. In fact, only two of those starts have two runs allowed. He backs a 24.2 K-BB% with a strong contact profile (see below) to produce estimators that only go as high as a 3.19 Bot ERA.

We’re going to start with another team total on the Red Sox (4.5 -122). This play cashed in the first inning on Monday and while Bergert may end up being better than Falter, this is another strong spot for the Sawx, who also face a poor bullpen again here. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

You will probably be unsurprised to learn that Bergert is not a pitcher of interest on the daily fantasy slate, while Crochet is the top pitcher on the board by so much, it would take an injury or rain out to change that. The Royals strike out much more often against LHP and brought in a bat (Grichuk), who also strikes out frequently against southpaws. I haven’t seen updated prices on FanDuel yet, but if he remains $11K (update: he is), he may still be the top value also by a large margin with one other sneaky play we’ll get to later. He’s currently a top three value on DraftKings for me as well.

Guardians @ Mets

Logan Allen has boasted one of the better hard hit rates in the league all season (directly above) and should have a better barrel rate with a league average ground ball rate. Still, he moves from one pitcher friendly park to another that can knock down some of those barrels. He has just an 8.9 K-BB% on the season, which produces estimators tightly grouped around half a run higher than his 4.06 ERA, but if he can sustain his league average 13.2 K-BB% over his last six starts, they may start falling closer to that ERA.

Clay Holmes lasted just 3.2 innings in his last start in San Diego and has recorded just two sixth inning outs over his last nine starts, over which he still carries a 58 GB%, but just a 1.5 K-BB%. His 117 innings are nearly twice what he’s thrown each of the previous three seasons with the Yankees with a career high 70 the year before that. LHBs have a .314 wOBA, but .342 xwOBA against him, which is a bit of a problem against Cleveland.

The Guardians actually have a slight wRC+ edge against the Mets against L/RHP. While the Mets should have a better bullpen, considering recent transactions for both teams in that area (suspensions for Cleveland, additions for the Mets), I only have Holmes half a run better than Holmes with no offensive advantage for the Mets and the Cleveland projected lineup ahead by a whopping 31 FRV defensively. It’s a bit absurd seeing the Guardians as +162 dogs to Holmes at this point in the season.

You can consider Allen for $7.4K on Draftkings in a solid spot, where he’s currently my seventh best value.

Brewers @ Braves

Hey, remember these numbers I quoted on Freddy Peralta before his last start?

First 2 starts: 32.6 K-BB%
Next 12 starts: 11.7 K-BB%
Last 8 starts: 23.1 K-BB%

Well, he went ahead and screwed up that pattern. Five runs for the Cubs on four walks with just three strikeouts.

Joey Wentz has struck out 13 of his last 40 and has posted a double digit SwStr% in all three starts for the Braves. Noted in a recent Fangraphs post, they “tweeked his cutter” (39.1%, 75 PB, 105 P+ with the Braves).

Wentz is a bit interesting with his 3.89 xERA and improving pitch modeling, but only for $7.1K on DraftKings. Peralta is a back ends top five to seven arm overall and a decent value on FanDuel ($9.6K), but probably adequately priced for $400 more on DraftKings.

Reds @ Cubs

I’m sure the Reds realize they traded for a pitcher with an 85.9 LOB% and a set of estimators at least three-quarters of a run higher than his 3.58 ERA. The 16.6 K% and 11.2% Barrels/BBE should not play well in Cincinnati, but may work at Wrigley if the wind is blowing in again.

Shota Imanaga struck out a season high eight of 20 Brewers last time out, coming off a start where there were 15 hard hit batted balls against him. He’s still allowed five barrels and home runs over his last two starts and has just a 13.9 K-BB% on the season. Maybe this is the start of something better with just his fourth double digit SwStr% in his last 10 starts, but also fourth in his last six. The drop in strikeouts and rise in barrels (10.4%) has made fore a more difficult sophomore season in Chicago, but of course, wind is even more important for him that Littell, who’s GB rate is 12.2 points higher, yet still below average.

Littell has enough regression coming too him that I’m probably not interested unless the wind is blasting inward. Imagana would be a back end top five to seven arm with neutral weather. In fact, I have him rated exactly the same as Peralta, but as the better value with a lower price.

Bullpen L30 day stats...

Yankees @ Rangers

Will Warren walked just a single batter for the first time in eight starts (13.9 BB% previous six). The result was six innings of one run ball, even with just four strikeouts. When he walks too many batters, the 44.1 HardHit% is a problem, while the 26.2 K% is not fully supported by a 9.6 SwStr%. He has generated the highest called strike rate on the daily fantasy slate, as you can see above, but without enough of a track record to know if that’s sustainable yet.

With his second outing of at least seven innings and just one run in his last three starts, a month long trip to the IL is the only thing keeping him out of Cy Young talk (that, and Tarik Skubal). His 1.49 ERA does come with an 85.6 LOB% and just five of his 19 barrels leaving the yard, but he’s still posting the second best K-BB of his career (21.5%) and his lowest hard hit rate in four years. Pitch modeling doesn’t love him, but he still sits second from the top via pitch run value matchups and otherwise tops out a 3.26 xERA.

Warren is a bit too scary at $8K or more. There aren’t a ton of strikeouts in the Texas lineup to fall back on. Eovaldi, on the other hand, is my currently number two overall (far behind Crochet and closer to the pack behind him). It’s a negative run environment with he bottom six in the projected Yankee lineup above a 24.5 K% against RHP this year.

Blue Jays @ Rockies

In 23 starts, Jose Berrios has produced 11 quality starts with two runs or less, though his 3.84 ERA is at least half a run below all estimators. His overall numbers are fairly average to slightly below, but it’s generally how he gets there that drives you nuts, but we can use that to our advantage. The 11.2% Barrels/BBE on another hot day at Coors is of particular concern.

Welp, Kyle Freeland failed to strike out a single one of the 12 Guardians he faced in Cleveland before he was pulled for unknown reasons last time out. He wasn’t pitching that poorly (three hits, no walks). Yes, his 8.1 K-BB% at Coors is 4.2 points lower than on the road. There’s not much positive to say here, especially against a Toronto offense with a 107 wRC+ and few strikeouts against LHP.

We’re going to use Berrios’s volatility to get a bit crazy here. The most positive run environment with the most hitter friendly weather for a second day seems like a recipe for insanity and it probably is. We’re surely loading up on Toronto bats, but as bad and strikeout prone as the Colorado offense is, you can still sprinkle in some Berrios and hope we get the good version, especially for just $7K on DraftKings.

However, we’re also going to lean into that volatility and Colorado’s recent uptick in offense with the Rockies, splitting between full game (+168) and F5 (+154) and we’re certainly playing over 11 (-116) here too.

Rays @ Angels

Ryan Pepiot has struggled with control, walking seven of the 45 Reds and Yankees he’s faced in two straight road starts. He’s now allowed 26 runs (23 earned) over his last 35.2 innings with a 12.8 K-BB% that’s nearly average and 42.4 GB%, but 13% Barrels/BBE and a 45 HardHit%. The larger problem is that nine of his 13 barrels have left the yard. He’s been unlucky to pitch in Tampa and have the majority of his road starts in power friendly parks, while this is no different. Neither is the fact that RHBs have a .342 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The fastball and slider grade a lot better than they’ve actually performed.

Jose Soriano hit the seven strikeout mark for the second time seven starts last time out, having struck out five or fewer in each of the other five. He’s ground balls (66.7%) before strikeouts (20.3%) with a 10.6 BB% too.

With every negative I’ve pointed out concerning Pepiot, I think there’s some opportunity there. That’s mostly because eight batters in the projected LAA lineup exceed a 24 K% against RHP this year. I don’t have him too far behind Peralta/Imagana, around seventh overall. Alternatively, Soriano is facing a Tampa Bay lineup without a lot of strikeouts in it (six of projected nine below 20% vs RHP).

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Padres @ Diamondbacks

Yu Darvish, who had been awful in his first four starts of the season (17 runs in 16.2 innings with a  2.5 K-BB%), suddenly three seven shutout innings at the Mets on Wednesday afternoon. He struck out seven of 23 batters (16.9 SwStr%) without a walk and two hits. His velocity (93.5 mph) was actually his lowest of the season, but he mixed up five pitches at least 11.8% with the slider (34.2%) the only one above 15.8%. He had strong command of nearly all his offerings.

Despite striking out a season high eight of 23 Tigers without a walk last time out, there’s no interest in his 12.9 K-BB% against the contact prone and improved lineup of the Padres in one of the more positive run environments in the league (roof already confirmed closed).

If this were a week ago with the Diamondbacks and Padres having their pre-trade deadline lineups and Yu Darvish was still out there throwing stinkers, I’d have an easy side with the home team in this game (though the line would probably be higher). However, more recent events are an opportunity to speculate on Darvish. We have no idea if last week was a starting point or just an isolated incident, but we also know he’s cheap ($6.1K on DK) against an Arizona lineup now with a ton of strikeouts. I mean, potentially six guys above 25% against RHP this year. When I talked about the sneaky play who could end up a top value above with Crochet, Darvish was who I meant.

White Sox @ Mariners

Congratulations to the White Sox on already passing their 2024 season win total. I’m still not pitching Davis Martin, even in this park, against the most improved lineup since the deadline.

Bryan Woo allowed at least four runs (but no more than five) for the sixth time this season last time out in Sacramento. Understandable. He’s still gone at least six innings in all 21 starts this year with six strikeouts. He’s only struck out fewer seven times and just once in his last eight starts (21.1 K-BB%).

The White Sox still have an 83 wRC+ against RHP and Seattle is still the most pitcher friendly park in the league. Woo is my number three overall, barely behind Eovaldi, but more playable on FanDuel for $300 less. I have him on the bottom half of the board value-wise on DraftKings right now.

Cardinals @ Dodgers

Hey, remember when I endorsed playing Sonny Gray on Monday night at Dodger Stadium? Miles Mikolas doesn’t have nearly the same amount of upside, but if you want to chase a quality start for less than $7K, I’m not going to say it’s impossible and he does have a 17.7 K-BB% over his last eight starts. I’m not going to endorse it again though.

Emmett Sheehan has thrown 25 innings of above average baseball (15.4 K-BB%, 7.4% Barrels/BBE). The 23.5 GB% that’s lower than his 26.5 LD% is a bit scary in a power friendly park and the Cardinals aren’t really slouches, while he’s thrown no more than 80 pitches in an outing yet.

We’ll pick up with more extensive daily fantasy notes here on Tuesday.