Monday 8/4 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Giants @ Pirates

Justin Verlander’s last four starts: 1 BB/7 K, 5/3, 2/0, 0/7

The two good ones were at home and the two poor ones on the road, but the last one (or first one above) was against the Pirates.

Johan Oviedo returning returning from (I’m guessing) Tommy John is the only questionable spot we have tonight. He is not yet confirmed. There is no market for this game as of yet. He’s climbed the ladder through rehab, pitching one AAA game, striking out five of 17. Oviedo projects just below four and a half.

Twins @ Tigers

The Twins have alluded to a bullpen game here. I’m piggybacking Roster Resource with Travis Adams, who has gone at least three innings in three of his four outings with just a 15.3 K% and 13.3% Barrels/BBE.

Casey Mize was yanked after 59 pitches and just five outs, while struggling in his third straight starts (13 runs, 11 earned, 8.2 innings, 11.8 K-BB%, 17.6% Barrels/BBE, 61.8 HardHit%, 32.4 GB%, velo UP 0.7 mph).

Astros @ Marlins

Jason Alexander struck out six of 20 Nationals with two walks last time out and still has a 4.8 K-BB% on the season.

Sure, Sandy Alcantara hasn’t allowed an earned run over his last 12 and has had strong pitch modeling (see below) all season, but he’s struck out just eight of 44 with three walks, a 41.9 GB% and HardHit%. Seems like much ado about not much. The Astros added one LHB at the deadline, but batters from either side of the plate are between a .328 and .363 wOBA and xwOBA against Alcantara this year.

Orioles @ Phillies

Cade Povich returns from a hip injury, last pitching in the majors a month and a half ago. Estimators average around four and a half on the season, well below his 5.15 ERA (.350 BABIP). He struck out 18 of 86 AAA batters with four walks and a homer during rehab.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his last 11 starts, but a total of three in the other five combined. He’s struck out exactly seven in five of his last eight starts and exactly four in each of the other three. RHBs a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him, more than 100 points better than LHBs.

Royals @ Red Sox

Are the Royals okay? I can only suspect that someone threatened them into taking Bailey Falter, who has struck out just 31 of his last 243 batters and eight of those in one start against the Tigers. Falter has a 6.4 SwStr% over that span, including following up the Detroit start without a single swing and miss against the Giants last time out. His best estimator is a 4.35 Bot ERA with RHBs owning a .312 wOBA, but .355 xwOBA against him. An 80 degree evening at Fenway shouldn’t do him much good. Alex Bregman rates best against his pitch mix.

Brayan Bello produced seven innings of one run ball in Minnesota last time out, but with four walks and strikeouts each. LHBs continue to be an issue (.315 wOBA, .341 xwOBA), though RHBs are up to a .333 xwOBA against him too, despite their .289 wOBA, perhaps the reason for almost all estimators more than a run above his 3.19 ERA. He has a 79.4 LOB% with five unearned runs overall. The only improvement the Royals made to a desperate lineup was Mike Yazstrzemski. They don’t strike out much, but Bello is less than $8K on DraftKings and nobody in the Kansas City lineup stands out as particularly strong against his arsenal.

For reasons mentioned above in one of the most hitter friendly run environments in the league, along with Kansas City’s awful bullpen performance over the last month, I’m going with the Red Sox to top their 4.5 run total (-135). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Guardians @ Mets

While Slade Cecconi still has a league average 13 K-BB% and has faced at least 26 batters in five of his last seven starts (seven innings or more in three of his last four), he’s also had a single digit K-BB% in six of his 13 starts and three straight. Add that to a terrible contact profile (11.4% Barrels/BBE, 47.4 HardHit%) and all estimators are more than a quarter run above his 3.77 ERA (82 LOB%). LHBs have a .340 wOBA and .377 xwOBA against him with RHBs not too far below. The workload in a pitcher friendly park with a cost below $8.5K are marks in his favor on a slate with some questionable high priced pitching.

The good news is that Sean Manaea’s velocity ticked back up to 91.4 mph last time out, as he stretched out to 86 pitches. It’s still more than half a mph below last year, but we did see 93 mph in his first start. Maybe he’s still building. He’s dropped a single strikeout with each start (7-6-5-4) with the SwStr% doing the same (16.9 – 11.6 – 11 – 8.1). That, plus the ridiculous price on DraftKings ($9.5K), kills his value in an otherwise great matchup.

Brewers @ Braves

Quinn Priester is coming off one of his worst starts in a while, but still came within an out of posting a two run quality start against the Cubs last time out. He has an 18.1 K-BB% and 60.2 GB% over his last 12 outings (nine starts + three with an opener), a span over which his has a 2.92 xFIP. Pitch modeling only gives him a 4.13 Bot ERA and 103 Pitching+ during this stretch, but its still a major improvement over his season numbers. The Braves really didn’t tinker with the lineup at the trade deadline, but have lost Acuna, which should drop them from their 100 wRC+ against RHP. Their new projected lineup against RHP averages a 96 wRC+ with White replacing Acuna. In fact, Baldwin and Ozuna are the only pair in that projected lineup who have positive pitch run values against Priester’s pitch mix. With Atlanta the only spot on the board that is projected to be below 70 degrees (though rain is also possible), Priester is among a number of guys I have bunched up between the fourth and eight spots overall, but still fairly close to the top couple of spots. The price tag is a bit high at this point though.

Quinn Priester is coming off one of his worst starts in a while, but still came within an out of posting a two run quality start against the Cubs last time out. He has an 18.1 K-BB% and 60.2 GB% over his last 12 outings (nine starts + three with an opener), a span over which his has a 2.92 xFIP. Pitch modeling only gives him a 4.13 Bot ERA and 103 Pitching+ during this stretch, but its still a major improvement over his season numbers. The Braves really didn’t tinker with the lineup at the trade deadline, but have lost Acuna, which should drop them from their 100 wRC+ against RHP. Their new projected lineup against RHP averages a 96 wRC+ with White replacing Acuna. In fact, Baldwin and Ozuna are the only pair in that projected lineup who have positive pitch run values against Priester’s pitch mix. With Atlanta the only spot on the board that is projected to be below 70 degrees (though rain is also possible), Priester is among a number of guys I have bunched up between the fourth and eight spots overall, but still fairly close to the top couple of spots. The price tag is a bit high at this point though.

Reds @ Cubs

Nick Lodolo has allowed seven runs over his last 33.1 innings with a 27.6 K-BB% and is now up to 19% on the season with a near league average contact profile. His 3.09 ERA is still below estimators ranging from a 3.49 dERA to a 3.93 Bot ERA with an 81.7 LOB%, but those estimators may be a bit high with his new found skillset. Temperatures are expected to be in the 70s at Wrigley, but I don’t have much on the wind. If we could assume neutral weather, I’d have Lodolo rated almost exactly the same as Priester at a similar cost in a tougher matchup.

With a 79.6 LOB% over his last four starts and six runs in 18 innings, Mike Soroka’s season strand rate (68.4%) is beginning to come into a more conventional range, though his 4.87 ERA is still far above estimators widely ranging from a 3.33 xERA to a 4.59 Bot ERA. He does have some wide platoon splits as well with LHBs 40 to 60 points better than RHBs against him. You have to wonder if his first start as a Cub will feature some adjustments, but the only thing he hasn’t been doing lately is pitching deep into games with just one start of more than five innings over his last five. Assuming neutral weather again, Soroka may be too cheap below $8K (Wrigley is a negative run environment without weather assistance. Noelvi Marte and Austin Hays are the only Cincinnati projected bats who stand out against his pitch mix, the former maybe mostly due to a smalls ample sizes against curveballs.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Yankees @ Rangers

While we can’t possibly know how much of Max Fried’s recent troubles (17 runs, 14 earned, in 19.1 innings with a 3.3 K-BB%, 43.3 GB%) were due to the blister he suffered, we can surmise that the issue has resolved with nine strikeouts against 27 Rays last time out, though he still allowed four more runs with a matching 43.8 GB% and HardHit%. Before the blister, Fried was near his career best 19.9 K-BB% in 2023, but has since fallen to a 17.2% rate that’s exactly in line with his career numbers (17.1%). The problem in that case is the career worst 50.9 GB% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE with a 37.3 HardHit% that’s his worst before the pandemic. These are still great numbers for most pitchers not named Max Fried, but his non-FIP estimators (3.23 dERA – 3.62 Bot ERA) tell a much better story than the 2.62 ERA with a career low .262 BABIP and 22% of his runs unearned. With all of that out of the way, Fried is my top overall pitcher by a smidgen as of late Sunday night, but a far better value on FanDuel, where he is $500 less. Sam Haggerty is the only projected Ranger with a positive run value matchup against his pitch mix.

Patrick Corbin continues to produce like a solid back end pitcher for the Rangers with more than three runs in just one back to back stretch  in the middle of the season. His 3.78 ERA isn’t far below estimators ranging from a 4.00 FIP/4.01 xFIP to a 4.20 SIERA and Bot ERA. In other words, perfectly league average pitcher. Corbin has struck out at least six in seven of his last nine and four straight. It’s been incredibly consistent too with exactly six in six of those starts and a high of seven. The Yankees have a 116 wRC+ against LHP this year. They are without Judge, but did trade for some LHBs. The projected lineup still averages a 111 wRC+ against LHP. With the roof closed, Texas is a negative run environment over the last three rolling years. No projected Yankee stands out strongly against what Corbin throws in either direction, though four do have a 27.5 K% or worse against LHP this year. Corbin is also in that Lodolo/Priester range for me with a few others, but is remains too cheap for his production in this spot. He remains one of my favorite values on the board.

Blue Jays @ Rockies

Eric Lauer has pitched beyond anyone’s wildest dreams with only as many as three runs allowed twice all season and even with a .239 BABIP and 82.2 LOB% only some below average pitch modeling reaching an estimator of four. He has a K-BB% of exactly 20% with just 6.6% Barrels/BBE. Lauer is my number three overall arm, just a bit ahead of the Lodolo/Priester/Corbin group. The negatives are Coors, the fact that the Rockies seem to have woken up against Pittsburgh pitching and perhaps the most hitter friendly weather in the most hitter friendly park, but they still have just a 72 wRC+ against LHP without anyone who really stands out positively against Lauer’s pitch mix. The craziness here is in Lauer’s price tag near $10K on FanDuel, but $3.6K less on DraftKings could make him the top value on the board.

Tanner Gordon’s 4.85 ERA is pretty much aligned with his non-FIP estimators in a small sample. The Blue Jays don’t strike out and his reverse split (RHBs .423 wOBA, .358 xwOBA) could further Gordon’s problems here. The red hot Joey Loperfido stands out best against Gordon’s pitch mix with Vlad and Kirk matching up well too.

Rays @ Angels

A sustained 1.5 mph bump from last years velocity and 0.5 mph against his previous high during his rookie season has allowed Adrian Houser to generate a 9.1 K-BB% that’s in line with his career rate (9.2%), but better than three of his last four seasons. His 47.5 GB% is also in line with his last four seasons (47.2%), but the velo increase has mostly shown benefit in his lowest barrel rate (4.9%) since before the pandemic. His 45.4 HardHit% is actually the second worst of his career. Is that barrel rate sustainable though? I can’t answer that. Probably not without his ground ball rate reaching 50% and even if it is, we’re still looking at a 3.97 xERA, his best non-FIP estimator with just three of his 10 barrels leaving the park. Houser seems to have league average upside at best, but has held RHBs to a .225 wOBA and .274 xwOBA. He’s still not a desirable daily fantasy arm, but may be tough to attack with a predominantly right-handed lineup.

Despite four of his last five starts at home, Yusei Kikuchi has hit a bit of a rut with 16 runs (15 earned) over his last 25.2 innings. He hasn’t allowed more than four runs in a start over this stretch, but has only recorded three sixth inning outs with six of his seven barrels (8.4%) leaving the park with a 15.3 K-BB% that actually increases his season rate to 14.1%. Yeah, we can probably blame the .364 BABIP, but Kikuchi’s 3.30 ERA on the season is still well below estimators, of which only a 3.55 Bot ERA and 3.72 dERA are below four. Kikuchi has solid pitch modeling, but just a neutral pitch run value matchup here. RHBs (.331 wOBA, .348 xwOBA) have been a significant problem for Kikuchi this year and this is a power friendly park. He sits middle of the board and overpriced from a daily fantasy standpoint.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Padres @ Diamondbacks

While it’s certainly a blessing to get the hell out of Sacramento for J.P. Sears, Arizona isn’t too much of a park upgrade for his first San Diego start. His 14.4 K-BB% on the road matched his home rate this season, making him an average pitcher if he holds his contact profile (9.1% Barrels/BBE, 40.5 HardHit%, 4.03 xERA). Even his 4.41 SIERA and certainly his 3.99 Bot ERA are far better than his 4.95 ERA. The Padres hope they have a league average pitcher on their hands and it’s not hard to see. While the Diamondbacks are probably the most negatively affected lineup by the trade deadline, they only  had a 94 wRC+ against LHP and the new projected lineup tentatively sits at 90. I say tentatively because we’re dealing with some very small sample sizes and minor league projections right now. That said, a number of holdovers, including the top three in the projected order, rate strongly against Sears’ pitch mix. Sears is cheap enough to be rostered in this spot though.

So much for Brandon Pfaadt’s six start run with a 21.1 K-BB%. While he didn’t walk a single Tiger last time out, he only struck out three, allowing as many home runs on four barrels with a 54.5 HardHit%. Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .325 wOBA and exceed a .380xwOBA against Pfaad this season with a terrible contact profile you can see in the chart above. Some contact neutral estimators are now near league average at least, which includes pitch modeling. Still, he’s not a daily fantasy option against the lineup that has perhaps improved the second most behind Seattle, ironically with Arizona’s guys, since the deadline and still doesn’t strike out. I mean just getting Maldonado out of there instantly improves your lineup. Both imports, along with Tatis and Machado play well against Pfaadt’s pitch mix this year.

Cardinals @ Dodgers

Sonny Gray has struck out exactly five in four straight starts and seven of his last 12 with only one start with more than six (none less than four). He retains an All Star quality 22.5 K-BB% on the season with 9.5% Barrels/BBE that isn’t too much worse than league average and just a 38.6 HardHit%. A .340 BABIP and 67.7 LOB% are driving a 4.38 ERA without a single estimator reaching four. That said, Will Smith and Shohei pop against what Gray throws and RHBs have a .355 wOBA and .333 xwOBA against him. Those are problems, but Gray is now undervalued and may have some value in this matchup. In fact, he’s my current second overall pitcher on the board. I mean, a 22.5 K-BB% and the Dodger offense has been pretty average for a bit now.

I wrote the following about Tyler Glasnow before fading him in his start against the Reds…

“Tyler Glasnow had his breakout game, striking out 12 of 25 Twins over seven innings of three hit, one run ball last time out. His velocity was actually down nearly a mph from his first two starts back from the IL, though not too much lower than the last couple of years and probably a consequence of stretching out a bit more. He threw 106 pitches, a number I’m not quite sure the Dodgers would want him to repeat often. I don’t have him as a top pitcher with the park downgrade, but that may be because I only have him averaging twice through the lineup this season. If he’s going  two and a half to three times through the order, it’s a different story. Glasnow also has poor pitch modeling, though that’s much beter over his last two starts as well (3.48 Bot ERA, 112 Pitching+).”

He threw just 83 pitches against in Cincinnati, but I think that was more a factor of four walks than any planned conservation. In addition to the four walks, the Reds had a 58.3 HardHit% against him, though Glasnow did hold his 96.1 mph velocity from the start before. The Cardinals didn’t really lose anyone from a strong lineup at the trade deadline and one that really doesn’t strike out that match. This is probably another Glasnow fade for me on another slate that I can see him being over-owned as the biggest name on the board against a team that sold at the deadline.

St Louis may not have sold offense, but they did sell important pieces from the best bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days, but they’re best in the league by nearly a quarter of a run and more than a run better than the Dodgers who are near the bottom of the league and made minor bullpen upgrades. That does close the gap a bit, but I still think Gray is too undervalued for the Cards to be +158 here.

Once again, I won't be around for any updates in the afternoon, but want to emphasize that the top half of the pitching board is packed so closely together that the right or wrong weather/lineups/umpiring can push any one of them from the middle to the top or top to the middle, though the guys I mentioned as strong values should retain most of that value disregarding something extreme.