Tuesday 7/29 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Blue Jays @ Orioles

Only Eric Lauer is officially listed for either of these games. Roster Resource also has Povich, Morton and Lucas, but not in any order. Fun fact about Lauer. He set a season high by two innings, faced six more batters than his previous season high with a season high 97 pitches (only reached 90 one other time) to stomp my K prop play last time out.

Rockies @ Guardians

Tanner Gordon has a 6.3 BB%, allowing 6.6% Barrels/BBE and has gone at least six innings in three of four starts. Non-FIP estimators range between a 4.01 xERA and 4.94 Bot ERA.

Logan Allen has a 14.7 K-BB% over his last five starts and a 36.3 HardHit% on the season, but his estimators are more closely packed around four and a half (4.33 FIP – 4.67 SIERA).

Diamondbacks @ Tigers

Brandon Pfaadt has a 21.1 K-BB% over his last six starts, but with 12 barrels (11.7%).

Casey Mize has been pounded for 11 runs (10 earned) over his last seven innings, despite striking out nine of 39 with two walks. Just one-third of his contact has been on the ground with six barrels and a 63 HardHit%. Yet, his velocity is up half a mph in these two starts.

Rays @ Yankees

The book on Joe Boyle in Oakland was incredible stuff when he could find the plate with it, which wasn’t all that often. With the Rays, he has struck out 18 of 70 batters with six walks (17.1 K-BB%, 12.2 SwStr%). He’s posted a 22.6 K-BB%, but 10.6 BB% at AAA. It’s workable, but he’s unlikely to pitch deep into the game and costs $9K on FanDuel.

Max Fried is outside my top five and maybe my top seven. He’s struck out 12 of his last 90 with nine walks, while facing a very tough part of the schedule (TOR 2x, NYM, CHC) and  has been dealing with a blister. He’s down to a 16.7 K-BB%, which is basically his career rate with a 51.3 GB% that’s 0.1 points from a career low, while he’s allowed the most barrels ever (6.4%) with a 37 HardHit%. These are still fine numbers, but they’re not Max Fried numbers. He’s expensive and it’s going to be 90 degrees in the Bronx on Tuesday.

Dodgers @ Reds

Tyler Glasnow had his breakout game, striking out 12 of 25 Twins over seven innings of three hit, one run ball last time out. His velocity was actually down nearly a mph from his first two starts back from the IL, though not too much lower than the last couple of years and probably a consequence of stretching out a bit more. He threw 106 pitches, a number I’m not quite sure the Dodgers would want him to repeat often. I don’t have him as a top pitcher with the park downgrade, but that may be because I only have him averaging twice through the lineup this season. If he’s going  two and a half to three times through the order, it’s a different story. Glasnow also has poor pitch modeling, though that’s much beter over his last two starts as well (3.48 Bot ERA, 112 Pitching+).

Nick Lodolo has allowed five runs over his last 28 innings, striking out 27 of 101 batters with three walks. Three of these four starts have been on the road, two in Philadelphia and New York (NL). That’s not an easy slate he has dominated and it doesn’t get any easier on Tuesday night. Talk about a tightly packed group of estimators (3.64 dERA – 3.91 Bot ERA).

I have Glasnow as around one-third of a run better than Lodolo, who is too expensive for daily fantasy purposes here. Perhaps that’s not enough, perhaps it’s right with Lodolo perhaps breaking out. The only other edge I give the Dodgers is offensively and that’s more decent than massive. As I mentioned yesterday, before the Reds kicked the ball around and the Dodgers did not, defenses and bullpens have been comparable, while Cincinnati is at home with a significant base running edge. I don’t like this one as much as yesterday, but do have the Reds a bit better than +126. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Red Sox @ Twins

Lucas Giolito has allowed nine runs over his last 9.1 innings, including five home runs on on NINE barrels (28.1%). He basically got ambushed early by the Phillies, while the Cubs just hammered him, both starts on the road. His velocity was fine and he’s generated a 13.5 SwStr% over these two starts. I can’t explain why he hasn’t been using his changeup the last few times out. It graded 74 (PB) and 138 (P+) against the Phillies, but I think there may be some opportunity for us now. Giolito has otherwise been fine this season (14.2 K-BB% and 20.5% in six starts prior to his Philly blowup). I do have some concern that he’s up to 10.4% Barrels/BBE, but he’s not expensive in a marginal spot that gets better if Buxton remains out. Giolito could be a risky borderline top five arm for me here.

No pitcher confirmation for the Twins. I haven’t even seen anyone suggested on Twitter. I’m going with Roster Resource for now.

Braves @ Royals

Hey Braves fans! Are you ready for some Fedde?

I’m not. Huh, he’s down to $6K on DK in a decent run prevention spot, where there are a lot of overpriced pitchers and few decent values on Tuesday. Such a hard trigger to pull though. He had struck out one of 56 batters and then got romped by the Rockies. 

Seth Lugo is all BABIP (.245) and strand rate (85.3%) this year. However, he also has a 21.2 K-BB% over his last seven starts, but with a 2.58 K/SwStr that’s a bit borderline sustainable and 11.9% Barrels/BBE over that span. It’s likely to be hot in Kansas City again and it’s not a negative run environment, despite suppressing power. On the season, he has a 2.95 ERA without an estimator below four.

Phillies @ White Sox

Although I really liked Sanchez on Monday, I almost played the White Sox. They have been quietly mashing against LHP and were up to a 97 wRC+ on the season against them. They beat Sanchez and now face a LHP, who has been struggling after a dominant first two months of the season. Jesus Luzardo has allowed at least four runs in six of his last 10 starts, still carrying a 16.1 K-BB% and league average contact rate. There’s been some BABIP (.414) and strand rate (55.3%) issues involved, but RHBs have a .395 wOBA against him over that span.

Jonathan Cannon tied a season high six runs allowed last time out in just 4.1 innings in the Tampa Bay heat, but also struck out a season high nine batters. Still, with just a 10.8 K-BB% and 9.9% Barrels/BBE on the season, Cannon’s 4.43 Bot ERA and 4.45 SIERA are his only estimators below a 4.48 ERA, though with only his dERA (5.16) reaching five.

This is going to seem a bit crazy, but due to the upside, Luzardo is my second favorite pitcher on the board and a solid value (better on FanDuel) for less than $10K. That said, I also like the price on the White Sox (+168), considering how they’re handling LHP as of late. Projected lineup defenses are both -8 FRV (Statcast), while the Phillies only have a small bullpen edge last 30 days (quarter run) and moderate offensive edge.

Cubs @ Brewers

The Brewers were the first team to rough up Matt Boyd in a while and Colin Rea’s best estimator is a 4.48 xFIP.

Although they’ve occasionally given him an opener, Quinn Priester has thrown at least six innings with two runs or less in eight of his last 11 outings with double digit strikeout efforts in two of his last five. He has a 19.6 K-BB% with a 60 GB% over that entire span. The only thing I can find is that his command grades (60 PitchingBot, 107 Location+) have greatly improved over this stretch. I’ve really just adjusted the numbers from my last blurb on him because nothing really changed. The Cubs are a tough opponent. I don’t love him here, but think he could be a sneaky decent value for less than $9K.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Marlins @ Cardinals

Remember that scene at the end of Grease, where Danny is blown away by Sandy dressed up in leather after ignoring the plain girl all movie long to appear cool to his friends? Alcantara has been like watching that movie in reverse.

Sonny Gray has allowed 16 runs (14 earned) over his last 8.1 innings against the Padres and Diamondbacks. He’s allowed eight barrels (21.1%) with four of them leaving the park. He’s also struck out five without a walk in each of his last three starts and still has 22.7 K-BB% on the season. I’ll often take a chance with these guys on hard contact streaks who continue to miss bats at a strong rate (especially without walks) because the home runs will often be solo and don’t hurt as much as the strikeouts hurt. It’s a bit different on FanDuel, where you need the quality start, but Sonny is less than $9K there on Tuesday night in a decent spot, espeically if Stowers, who was scratched on Monday, remains out. 

Nationals @ Astros

Mike Soroka has poor pitch modeling (see below), but otherwise, all estimators are more than three-quarters of a run below his 4.85 ERA with a 67.8 LOB% and 10 of his 13 barrels leaving the yard. The 18 K-BB% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE are pretty solid, though the 41.3 HardHit% is worst of his career. He’s only completed six innings in four of 15 starts though.

Nobody listed on MLB.com. Roster Resource has Jason Alexander (1.9 K-BB% in 21 MLB innings this year, 4.7% in 92.2 career).

Rangers @ Angels

I’ve done quite well rostering Patrick Corbin at reasonable prices over the last couple of months, including against these Angels a few starts back. In back to back starts in mid-June, he allowed more than three runs for the first two times this season and everyone thought the party was over. He allowed three runs in his next start and now a total of five over his last four. Corbin has also struck out at least six (but only seven once) in six of his last eight starts and has a 19.9 K-BB% over his last six with 6.4% Barrels/BBE and a 34.7 HardHit%. He has a 3.78 ERA on the season and it’s within half a run of all of his estimators. The Angels feature a predominantly right-handed lineup and he’s still having some trouble with those (though just a .310 wOBA L6 starts), but six of nine projected batters exceed a 24 K% against LHP this year. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Corbin is my top pitcher on a weak Tuesday board and obviously one of my favorite values for around $8K.

Yusei Kikuchi has struck out 21 of his last 92 batters with an 11.9 SwStr%, but has also allowed 12 runs over his last 20.1 innings with five home runs on seven barrels (11.1%). This, despite an 80% strand rate. I think he’s reasonably priced for his upside because the Rangers have a 74 wRC+ and 25.4 K% against LHP, but they have been better lately and include one of his poor starts a few starts back.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Mets @ Padres

Sean Manaea has struck out 18 of 50 batters with a 13 SwStr% and 25.9 HardHit%, but even stretching out to five innings and 19 batters last time out (82 pitches), he saw a velocity drop in outing and now has 93 mph, 91.9 and 90.4 averages over his first three starts. We can hope it’s just a facit of being stretched out after missing the entire first half of the season, but not much reason to risk It against a contact prone offense.

This was supposed to be Yu Darvish, who has legitimately been awful, but I no longer see his name (or anyone elses) listed.

Pirates @ Giants

Bailey Falter had gone 10 straight starts without more than four strikeouts and a total of 22 over that span (11.1%), going into his last start, so of course he strikes out eight Tigers, though he did so with just an 8.0 SwStr%. He’s had some fortune with a .242 BABIP and six unearned runs. A 4.30 Bot ERA is his only estimator within half a run of his 3.82 ERA, though he does find himself on the top half of our pitch matchup ratings by pure run values.

Justin Verlander “won” his first game of the season, in a start where he walked five Braves with three strikeouts and didn’t allow a run over five innings. He’s walked seven of his last 39 with three strikeouts to drop his K-BB into single digits on the season again (9.8%). The crazy thing is that his velocity is back up about a mph his last few starts, pretty much to where it sat his entire time in Houston, while he’s only allowed two barrels with a 35.7 HardHit% over that span. He just can’t seem to find the plate or get enough chases off of it.

This is going to get a bit crazy because there are quite a few things popping in the numbers here. To start with, the Pittsburgh offense is so bad, especially on the road, that Verlander is popping as a top five arm and strong value for $7.5K or less. Sure, it’s a great spot in a great park. I kinda get it. However, Verlander’s numbers are just as bad as Falter’s and the Giants have just a 78 wRC+ against LHP. The Pirates have comparable bullpen and base running numbers and a better defense. Therefore, I’m also showing slight value on Pittsburgh (+136). Here’s where I find the most value and it makes the most sense though…under 8 (-110).

Mariners @ Athletics

Logan Evans hasn’t gone beyond five innings in five straight starts. He’s allowed 10.6% Barrels/BBE with just an 8.6 K-BB%. A 4.14 Bot ERA is his only estimator below four and a half.

Striking out eight Astros without a walk last time out, Luis Severino finally brought his road K-BB (8.6%), well…still 1.5 points below his home mark. However, a .349 BABIP and 57 LOB% in a terrible park have opponents up to a .360 wOBA against him at home. LHBs legitimately have a .366 xwOBA (.341 wOBA) against him on the season overall and the Mariners have a whole bunch of those.

The Mariners have roasted RHP (113) and on the road (118) and both teams have terrible defenses. The bullpens have been better, so I’ll keep this an F5 over (5.5 -118).

We'll pick up the daily fantasy notes from here in the afternoon.