Monday 7/28 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Blue Jays @ Orioles

In three of Chris Bassitt’s last four starts, he has faced at least 27 batters, striking out at least eight twice. In the other start, he struck out one Chicago White Sock, but only allowed a single run.

Zach Eflin allowed six home runs on just four barrels (8.7%) in three starts before hitting the IL. He allowed one barrel to 18 batters (five strikeouts) in his return in Cleveland.

Rockies @ Guardians

Not gonna Blalock when we don’t gotta Blalock.

Slade Cecconi has posted a 13.9 K-BB% in each of the last two seasons, but with increases to 12.2% Barrels/BBE and a 46.3 HardHit% this year (4.87 xERA).

Diamondbacks @ Tigers

Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed at least four runs in eight of 17 starts, but has also struck out at least nine four times. He’s struck out five or less 11 times too.

Jacob Melton is a 50 Future Value arm and sixth best prospect in the Detroit system according to Fangraphs. He’s thrown his 96.7 mph fastball 50% of the time at AAA this season, producing a 26 K-BB%. He struck out seven of 24 Pirates (13.3 SwStr%), but allowed four barrels (26.7%) with a 60% hard hit rates. He only threw 28.9% fastballs with 26.7% sliders and 21.1% sinkers with only the sinker (71 PitchingBot, 139 Pitching+) grading above average.

Rays @ Yankees

Drew Rasmussen has faced 66 batters in 16 innings over his last five starts. His strikeout prop at 4.5 and 75 pitch count last time out, despite facing just 16 batters makes me wonder whether they’re going to start ramping him up again, but to what? The 92 pitches he threw six starts back are a season high. You can’t do much with him.

Cam Schlittler struck out seven of the 21 Mariners he faced in his debut at Yankee Stadium, while walking two with a barrel and five hard hit batted balls (41.7%). Pitch modeling was conflicting (3.67, 100), but certainly not bad. Both loved the slider (34.7%, 61 PB, 134 P+). However, the 8.0 SwStr% is less exciting. He did sport a 14.1% rate at AAA, where he generated a 26.5 K-BB% this year, but Schlittler is only a marginally regarded prospect (45 Future Value grade) by Fangraphs and has projections around four and a half.

He then struck out only three of 24 in his second start with a 7.8 SwStr% in Toronto without a barrel and a 22.2 HardHit% with better pitch modeling (3.54 Bot ERA, 106 Pitching+).

Dodgers @ Reds

A 19.9 K-BB% is nothing to laugh at and with a 52.7 GB%, Yoshi Yama’s only allowed 6.2% Barrels/BBE. All estimators are higher than his 2.55 ERA, but only a 3.71 Bot ERA by more than a run. He’s had a few unearned runs (seven of 28) and only been about league average against RHBs (.293 wOBA, .303 xwOBA). Only nine of his 20 starts have been quality starts with two runs or less, while he’s failed to go beyond five innings in nine of his starts as well.

Chase Burns seems to have had one outlier start in his second one at Fenway where the Red Sox were on him like they knew what was coming. He struck out none of the nine batters he faced with hard contact on five of seven batted balls. He’s allowed three barrels, but hard contact on 23 of his 47 remaining batted balls, but also struck out 35 of his remaining 91 batters faced with nine walks. His 2.64 Bot ERA and 117 Pitching+ suggest that he’s more polished than most young pitchers. A 4.32 xERA is reason for pause because the hard hit rate has been elevated in each start, but if only half the batters he faces are making contact, it’s not as much of hinderance.

We’ll start with the daily fantasy spin here. I have both pitchers rated evenly, but only see Burns as a potential play here, due to the $2K difference in cost. The Dodgers have just a 100 wRC+ on the road and while the park is a problem, a few home runs can be made up for by a ton of strikeouts.

Secondly, I only have Yamamoto a quarter run better than Burns. The Dodgers have an offensive edge, though not as large as you think (see above), while the Reds actually have better defensive and bullpen numbers (barely). The Reds are also one of the best base running teams in the league with the Dodgers around neutral. I have quite a bit of confidence in the Reds (+146) pulling this off, but beware that the more confidence I’ve had in a side this season, the worse it’s gone. I don't  hate splitting some between F5 (+132) either. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Red Sox @ Twins

Richard Fitts has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in 16 innings, comprising four starts since returning from the IL. More interesting is his 20.3 K-BB% (13.4 SwStr%) over this span. Having all four of his barrels leave the park in LA (AL) and Philadelphia seems to be the main problem here. I would like to see less velocity fluctuation here and you can’t use him on FanDuel because of the workload, but Fitts is one of the lower priced pitchers I like on DraftKings ($6.2K) in an SP2 spot with a park upgrade in a neutral matchup. He should have some strong framing and defense to work with.

SWR is actually the pitcher in this matchup who does not Fitt into this article. He walked five of 14 Dodgers last time out.

Braves @ Royals

The crazy thing is that Spencer Strider has always thrived with a two pitch mix that included an elite fastball (60.7) and mediocre slider (32.3%). This year, the fastball velocity, grading (51 PB, 91 P+) and performance (7.8 SwStr%, 125 wRC+) are down considerably, while the slider also grades below average (41 PB, 93 P+) with spectacular results (26.3 SwStr%, 68 wRC+). Something’s amiss here and it appears to be the pitch modeling. Strider has a 23.7 K-BB% over his last eight starts, though still can’t seem to drop his estimators below three and a half (3.61 SIERA L30 days). Still, Strider is my 3A overall and a decent value on a daily fantasy board deep in high end pitching on Monday night. The lack of strikeouts in the Kansas City projected lineup (just two above 19% against RHP this year) is the only thing keeping him from climbing higher.

You could sum up Rich Hill’s one earned run, one strikeout debut at Wrigley as “that’s baseball”. He still projects around a five ERA/FIP combination. While I would not project him to pitch well here either, I’m not going to, you know…die on that Hill.

Phillies @ White Sox

Cristopher Sanchez has eight straight quality starts with two runs or less, six straight with exactly one run and at least seven innings in seven of eight. Over his last five starts, he’s posted a 27.5 K-BB% and 68.5 GB%. He’s faced at least 29 batters in three straight starts. Do you need any other numbers? Sanchez is my 1B overall and still a great value on either site. Only two projected White Sox are below a 21 K% vs LHP this year. The only surprise is their 97 wRC+ against LHP this year.

Davis Martin is pitching in this game two. He walked four of the 20 Rays he faced, while striking out three in his return from the IL.

Cubs @ Brewers

Matthew Boyd has allowed 10 runs (eight earned) over his last 63.1 innings with an 18.8 K-BB% and 10.1% Barrels/BBE, but just a 36.9 HardHit%. Now, just three of his 17 barrels have left the yard with a .212 BABIP and 86.4 LOB%, but he’s pitching well and going deep into games with at least seven innings in three of his last four starts. Boyd is running a 3.47 Bot ERA and 103 Pitching+ over this span, slight improvements over his season marks (as you can see below). To illustrate how deep this board is in pitching, Boyd sits just outside my top five on FanDuel, but I still think he’s a decent value at $9.9K. He’s inside my top five and a much better value on DK ($8.7K). The Milwaukee hot streak has been more arms than bats. 

Yes, Jacob Misiorowski is an electric pitching prospect with a 35.7 K% (14.9 SwStr%) and elite pitch modeling through six starts, allowing more than two runs in just one so far. No, I’m not paying $10K for him against the Cubs, largely because they’ve held him below 75 pitches in three of his last four starts. They pulled him after 14 batters and 64 pitches, despite seven strikeouts and four base runners in Seattle last time out.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Marlins @ Cardinals

I was surprised to see the market have this game, similarly to how I project, around even. That said, Edward Cabrera’s last walk was four starts back (23.4 K-BB% last four), but my daily fantasy interest here is merely borderline for several reasons having to do with he matchup. Four of the first projected six Cardinal bats are below a 16.5 K% against RHP and you can see their numbers at home (111 wRC+) and against RHP (108) above. We also may be looking at another 90 degree evening in St Louis, while Cabrera’s price tag has increased to at least $8K on either site. I’d probably like him more on a lesser board.

Andre Pallante has allowed 18 runs (17 earned) over his last 15.2 innings, due to a .383 BABIP and 44.1 LOB% with just a 33.9 HardHit% and 51.8 GB%. That ground ball rate is 10 points below his season rate, but still… He’s actually so cheap with a great defense behind him that…no, he may have the elite defense and 1.49 K/SwStr that merits regression, but some pitchers are just more interested in getting ground balls and quicker outs than strikeouts. The numbers say you can do it, I don’t think I can.

Nationals @ Astros

Brad Lord faced 16 Reds and threw 50 pitches in his first start since May 6^th. He struck out one.

Framber Valdez has completed six innings in 80% of his starts this season, allowing more than two runs in just two of his last 13 with an 18.7 K-BB% and 64.3 GB% over that span. With so little elevated contact, the 46.9 HardHit% he’s also carrying during this stretch is less of a concern. All that said, Valdez is a borderline top five overall arm for me on Monday night, mostly due to the strength of the board. He is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and only $100 less than Sanchez on FanDuel offering decent, not great value. There are some small samples, but the Washington projected lineup against LHP includes six batters with at least a 25 K% against southpaws this year, some in small sample sizes.

Rangers @ Angels

After sitting at 98.2 mph over his previous five starts, Jacob deGrom sat exactly at his season velocity of 97.4 mph against the A’s last time out. He got touched for an early home run to a LHB (.267 wOBA, .296 xwOBA against him this year), but that was it, as he still struck out nine of 22 batters. DeGrom has a 26.2 K-BB% over his last eight starts without an estimators above three and a quarter this year. DeGrom is my 1A overall on Monday with a park downgrade, but in a high upside spot. Seven of nine projected Angels exceed a 24 K% vs RHP this year. I have him as a slightly better value than Sanchez on each site, as he’s just a bit cheaper, which may make him the top value on the board too.

Jack Koch, the man with more Ks in his name than his game logs, is back after one AAA start. His 4.8 K-BB% renders a 52.6 GB% fairly useless. He’s still allowed 8.3% Barrels/BBE with a 46.7 HardHit%.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Mets @ Padres

Frankie Montas struck out a season high six batters in a season high 26 faced in his fifth start of the season. He also generated 55.6% of his contact on the ground against the Angels and now holds a 12.4 SwStr% overall. His Bot ERA has been below 3.50 in three of his last four starts and Pitching+ above 100 in each of his last four. There are some positive signs here. The Mets have him throwing his slider (58 PB, 112 P+) 26.6% of the time, his most often since 2017. He’s less than $8K in a pitcher friendly park against a marginal offense, though one that won’t strike out much, especially at the top. He could be a sneaky decent value here, but still probably around a third of the way down my board.

Dylan Cease has a single digit SwStr% (16.1% on the season) in just one start this year (9.7%). I mention this because he has struck out five or less in three of his last six starts, but also eight or more in five of his last eight. While he continues to pile up the strikeouts, the .319 BABIP and 69.2 LOB% are annoying enough to keep his 4.59 ERA well above a 3.35 SIERA to 3.67 Bot ERA range. You see him just middle of the pitch matchup ratings board below, but I still have to call Cease a top five overall arm on Monday and potentially undervalued for barely more than $9K, though I still have Sanchez and deGrom as slightly better values (also Boyd on DK).

Pirates @ Giants

Mitch Keller is three outs from having gone six innings in 14 straight starts with a 14.5 K-BB% that’s just above average with a 46.7 GB% and 43.6 HardHit%, but just 6.2% Barrels/BBE. He’s exhibiting non-FIP estimators (3.82 xERA – 4.16 SIERA) a bit above his 3.53 ERA on the season, but workhorse league average pitchers don’t grow on trees, ya know. There is some value to that (and you may see just how much some team pays in a few days), but just not enough daily fantasy value for more than $8K.

Carson Whisenhunt has just been confirmed for Monday. He is San Francisco’s top pitching prospect and number two overall in the organization with a 50 Future Value grade according to Fangraphs. The site also named him a back end top 100 prospect (98) after spring training, calling him a relief risk. The lefty has posted just a 14.2 K-BB% in 97.2 AAA innings, but projects rather strongly around four and a quarter by the major projection systems.

The Giants just lost three straight at home to the Mets, but in close contests and have the fourth best pen estimators L30 days (Pittsburgh is fifth best). They also project a strong defensive lineup, despite their negative team numbers on the season, but the real kicker here is the Pittsburgh offense (64 wRC+ Rd/68 v LHP/70 L7 days) that makes the Giants are larger favorite than the market sees them (-126).

Mariners @ Athletics

Luis Castillo brings his 11.0 K-BB% on the road to Sacramento and with LHBs at a .350 wOBA and .353 xwOBA against him overall (.374 wOBA on the road), I expect there to be some trouble here. Have you heart of a guy named Kurtz? I don’t think much explanation is needed to why I’m playing the A’s to go over their 4.5 run team total here (-105). Castillo’s flaws have been hidden in a great pitching park and a division of predominantly right-handed batters. The A’s don’t have LHBs in number, but they do have them in some quality.

J.P. Sears will probably be discussed more when we pick up our daily fantasy notes on bats in the afternoon.