Wednesday 7/30 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Blue Jays @ Orioles

It’s my pleasure to skip analyzing Jose Berrios whenever I’m able to.

Dean “Barrels” Kremer had allowed three barrels over six outings heading into his last start. Would I have to rethink his nickname? Fear not! Three barrels, although the hard hit rate is down to 34.5%.

Maybe 100 degrees in Baltimore for this one.

Diamondbacks @ Tigers

Ryne Nelson’s 10.8 K-BB% since being inserted into the rotation is about half what it was during his strong, late run last year, but the fastball (62 PitchingBot, 114 Pitching+) is still a near elite pitch.

Since striking out 10 Mariners at T-mobile, Chris Paddack hadn’t exceeded five strikeouts in eight straight starts before punching out eight Dodgers last time out.

Red Sox @ Twins

Ten of Bryan Bello’s 28 strikeouts over his last six outings came in one start against the Rockies. Eight of his last nine starts have been quality starts, but only four with more than six inning or less than three runs.

This should be Bailey Ober’s return from the IL. He struck out nine of 33 AAA batters with one walk in a couple of rehab starts. Is he the 4.60 SIERA/4.47 xERA guy that hit the IL with a hip impingement? Is he the guy projected just slightly lower for the rest of the season? Is he completely healthy and the borderline All Star he appeared to be last season?

Nationals @ Astros

After walking six Twins in his last start, Mackenzie Gore has a 4.9 K-BB% over his last seven starts (28% first 14).

The Astros aren’t saying, but Roster Resource has Ryan Gusto, who was smoked for eight runs by the A’s IN HOUSTON last week.

Braves @ Royals

Joey Wentz struck out six of 18 Rangers in his second start for the Braves and has allowed just seven hard hit batted balls out of 22 since being picked up by Atlanta.

The Royals are saying nothing. RR is listing Dallas Keuchel. Word is, they’re trying to lure Jamie Moyer out of retirement. Maybe Bartolo Colon. 

Phillies @ White Sox

Is Taijuan Walker (seven runs in 13.2 innings since being moved back into the rotation) the best the Phillies can do at this point?

Not only his Adrian Houser holding his significantly elevated velocity this season, but he’s been throwing even harder in his last two starts (95.3 mph sinker). Five of his last six starts have been more than six innings with only one of them reaching three runs.

Cubs @ Brewers

After a pair of seven inning outings where he struck out 11 of 49 batters with two walks, allowing a single run, Shota Imanaga surrendered three home runs and barrels (15.8%) to the south siders. The White Sox had a 78.9 HardHit% against him. Imanaga’s 12.2 K-BB% now barely exceeds his 10% Barrels/BBE.

Freddy Peralta…

First 2 starts: 32.6 K-BB%
Next 12 starts: 11.7 K-BB%
Last 8 starts: 23.1 K-BB%

He’s has not allowed more than four runs in a start this year and only that twice.

Pirates @ Giants

Mike Burrows posted his first career quality start last time out against the Diamodbacks, whom he shut out over six innings on one hit. He’s considered a one trick pony (changeup 23.8%, 55 PitchingBot grade, 113 Pitching+) and, naturally, has a reverse platoon split (RHBs .336 wOBA, .345 xwOBA) and has allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE overall. A 14.7 K-BB% is above average and he could have more success with his contact profile in this park.

I tried to play Logan Webb’s rough patch off with a very tough schedule and Dodgers, at Blue Jays, Mets is still very tough, but 16 runs in 15.1 innings with a 10.8 K-BB% that’s half his season rate (20.2%), along with a 10 point reduction in ground balls (40.4%) is a problem against any schedule. He’s abandoned the cutter he picked up and threw 13.3% of the time for six starts leading into the break, while also reducing his slider usage, relying most exclusively on his fastball and changeup the last few times out. The changeup still looks strong, but the sinker grades poorly in both home starts (Mets, Dodgers) and he has to be more than just a one pitch pitcher. He has a track record though. Maybe not as well as he’s been pitching this year, but the command should return and there’s nothing like the Pirates to bring out the best in a pitcher again.

Risky proposition with Webb pitching as he has recently, but the Pirates (66 wRC+ Road, 81 vs RHP) are a gift in this park. And the other side of it is perfectly average before the park adjustment, while the Pirates also have a very good defense and both teams have top third of the league pen estimators over the last month. I’m going under (7.5 -115) back to back in this park. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Mets @ Padres

The Mets have announced intentions of limiting Clay Holmes, who has far surpassed his career high in innings, down the stretch and they accomplished that by letting him throw 104 pitches last time out, tying a season high. He’s recorded just two sixth inning outs over his last eight starts and has just a 1.1 K-BB% over that span.

Yu Darvish has allowed 17 runs in 16.2 innings with a 2.5 K-BB%.

Bullpens L30 days...

Rockies @ Guardians

Kyle Freeland allowed four home runs on six barrels (30%) with a 70% hard hit rate on a hot day where Camden played like Coors last time out, but still maintains a near league average 12.9 K-BB% on the road (.324 wOBA) and gets a park upgrade here. Cleveland (79 wRC+ against LHP) has played as one of the more negative run environments in baseball over the last few years and is tough on RHBs. If you’re playing the daily fantasy game on Wednesday night, first of all, You Sick Bastard, and secondly, Freeland may be my DK SP2 ($6K).

Neither MLB.com, nor Roster Resource want to bet on Cleveland’s pitcher at this point. I just picked the bullpen guy who appeared most available as a place holder.

Rays @ Yankees

Zach Littell’s still 85.1 LOB% is starting to regress (67.6% with 10 runs over his last 17.2 innings). What he does offer is a miniscule walk rate (3.3%), but with a mere 16.5 K% and 11.3% Barrels/BBE. This is a recipe for disaster, not a 3.72 ERA. His best estimators (4.21 xFIP & dERA) are half a run higher with poor pitch modeling. RHBs have a .324 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Littell with LHBs just a bit lower.

Will Warren posted a five start high with seven strikeouts last time out, but still extended his streak without a quality start to six with a 13.9 BB% over that span. He’s also allowed seven barrels (15.2%) over his last three starts and LHBs are up to a .373 wOBA and .369 xwOBA against him this year.

If you want to bet on Warren’s upside on a tiny slate, that’s fine, although he’s not near the top of my list. More importantly, and I know Judge is out, this could be high scoring game. The Yankees (117 wRC+ Hm & v RHP) still have a few bats, as they put up six on the Rays on Tuesday. Warren still has estimators around four on the season, but 5.13 SIERA and .366 xwOBA over the last 30 days. The Rays have an uncharacteristically awful defense this year, while the Yankee pen has greatly disappointed in recent weeks. I’m going over 9 (-105) on another hot evening in the Bronx.

Dodgers @ Reds

Shohei Ohtani worked up to a season high 46 pitches and 14 batters, but still just three innings for the second straight start, as they bring him along very slowly. Maybe (MAYBE) he completes four here if he’s efficient, but his third start is the ONLY one where his velocity didn’t drop from his previous start, sitting a season low 97.3 mph last time out and I would expect him to be back to somewhere around his normal 96.5 mph when fully stretched out. His numbers are strong, but he’s struck out just seven of his last 25 and allowed seven hard hit batted balls last time out (70%). We have to temper our expectations as he continues to get stretched out.

Nick Martinez hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last three starts, but has allowed just six runs over 15.1 innings. His 11.4 K-BB% is nearly six points below last year’s semi-breakout, though he maintains a solid contact profile (7.4% Barrels/BBE, 34.5 HardHit%), even if that’s declined a bit too. That last part is a must to keep his home run rate reasonable in this park. His sinker (16%), cutter (20.6%), curveball (10.4%) and changeup (19.3%) have all seen their pitch modeling grades decline as well, though the 3.91 Bot ERA and 100 Pitching+ still beat additional estimators, all above four, but only his dERA (4.78) exceeding a 4.69 ERA.

First off, Ohtani is not built up enough for daily fantasy use, while we’re not using Martinez in this park against the Dodgers. That said, I’m still going for the three game reverse sweep with the Reds (+147), who kicked the ball around Monday night and blew a lead on Tuesday. I’ve quoted a comparable defense, better base running and slightly better bullpen estimators over the last month (which matters a bit more in a shorter Ohtani outing) as reasons this week and it’s the same here. Let’s try to pull one out in this series.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Marlins @ Cardinals

Despite a 17.3 K-BB% over his last 12 starts, Cal Quantrill has one quality start all season (two starts back) because the Marlins are pulling him pretty much twice through the order, as RHBs still have a .423 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against him this year.

After posting a five start 21.4 K-BB%, Miles Mikolas has struck out just three four of his last 40 batters, including just one swing and miss last time out.

I really wouldn’t consider either of these pitchers here, but you could consider a Mikolas punt because at least he has a shot of pitching six innings.

Rangers @ Angels

Walking a season high four Braves his last time out, Nathan Eovaldi ran up an 86 pitch count in just five innings because he also struck out seven of 21 batters. Without allowing a run, I’m a bit surprised the Rangers didn’t give him one more, as he threw 102 pitches in his previous start. At 35 years old, Eovaldi’s velocity is down to 94 mph, but with a career high 22.5 K-BB% (22.6% during the pandemic season) with his best hard hit rate (38.4%) in four years. The 1.50 ERA is a fluke (.254 BABIP, 85.4 LOB%, five home runs on 19 barrels), but a 3.29 xERA and some confusing pitch modeling (3.99 Bot ERA, 102 Pitching+) are his only estimators above three.

Since that five game stretch with a 31 K%, Jose Soriano is back down to 17.7% (6.3 K-BB%) over his last four. I recently read that he looks for ground balls over strikeouts, maybe even with two strikes, which explains the sub-2.0 K/SwStr.

Since that five game stretch with a 31 K%, Jose Soriano is back down to 17.7% (6.3 K-BB%) over his last four. I recently read that he looks for ground balls over strikeouts, maybe even with two strikes, which explains the sub-2.0 K/SwStr.

Eovaldi is my unquestioned (and maybe every body else’s) top daily fantasy arm on Wednesday night. I would still struggle to pay $8K for Soriano on this board, but anyone who’s popped a double digit strikeout game has a chance on this slate.

Mariners @ Athletics

Despite some ups and downs with the strikeouts, Bryan Woo has completed six innings in every start this season (75% QS). However, after three straight starts above a 25 K-BB%, he’s gone three straight below 20% to drop him back below that mark on the season (19.5%). His road K-BB (20.3%) is higher than his home K-BB (18.3%) this year.

Jeffrey Springs’ 4.14 ERA matches a 4.17 xERA, but is below all other estimators, ranging as high as a 5.06 dERA with a .246 BABIP. An 18.9 K-BB% and 32.2 GB% is rough in this park, though batters have just a .304 wOBA against him at home.

Jeffrey Springs’ 4.14 ERA matches a 4.17 xERA, but is below all other estimators, ranging as high as a 5.06 dERA with a .246 BABIP. An 18.9 K-BB% and 32.2 GB% is rough in this park, though batters have just a .304 wOBA against him at home.

While Bryan Woo is my number two pitcher on this board, I’m not sure you can pay $10K for him in this park. Maybe if Eovaldi is an overwhelming ownership favorite?