Friday 7/25 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Marlins @ Brewers

Cal Quantrill has a 16.1 K-BB% over his last 13 starts, having allowed more than two runs just four times in that span, sporting an ERA and estimators around four. In other, he’s been about league average since the start of May.

Freddy Peralta has a 17.1 K-BB% on the season, just one point better than Quantrill since the start of May. However, if you remove Peralta’s first two starts, he’s at just 15.5% since. Peralta has the better contact profile (see below) and I still consider him the far better pitcher, but I point this out to illustrate that the Marlins could be formidable opponents here.

Look above and see that while the Brewers have a large home/road wRC+ edge, the Marlins are actually three points better vs RHP. The Brewers have a great defense, but the Marlins are decent too. The Brewers have the best pen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days (a big reason they haven’t lost in over two weeks), but the Marlins have the third best. At a price of nearly two to one (+193), I have to side with the dog to break the streak. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Diamondbacks @ Pirates

We’re going to punt this one completely, except to mention the news just breaking that Josh Naylor has been traded to the Mariners.

Rockies @ Orioles

You might be surprised to learn that half of Kyle Freeland’s 18 starts have been quality starts. There are a lot of three in sixes mixed in there, but still surprising, none the less. Six of them have come in his nine road starts, over which he has posted a league average 13.0 K-BB%. Both his FIP and xFIP drop below four away from Coors, while opposing batters have just a .306 wOBA against him. Again, league average.

Dean Kremer has posted seven inning quality starts with a total of one run allowed in three of his last four starts. He also has a 16.2 K-BB% over his last 12 starts to bring him up to a league average 13.3% on the season. The major improvement, though, has come in his contact profile (3.6% Barrels/BBE, 26.5 HardHit% last five starts). This has dropped his season marks to 7.6% and 34.9% and I have to acknowledge the fact that Dean Kremer may be a league average pitcher.

He's at least as good as Freeland. In fact, I have him about one-third of a run better with the better contact profile. However, the crazy thing is that the Rockies have a slightly higher wRC+ vs RHP than the Orioles have against LHP. The teams also have very similar poor defenses and bullpens (both are bottom four in the league L30 days and Baltimore just lost their closer).

Again, I’ll be siding with the large road dog here (+193) and despite temperatures in the 90s in what has once again become a hitter friendly park, I like the value on both of these pitchers, due to the ineptitude of the offenses. Freeland as a nice punt option on DK and Kremer as a borderline top five to seven arm on a large slate.

Phillies @ Yankees

We’ll probably talk more about Taijuan Walker in the afternoon, as a pitcher to attack with most estimators in the mid-fours in a starting role.

Not only does Will Warren remain erratic, but his upside is slipping. He’s struck out just 14 of his last 90 batters with four walks. LHBs are now within two points of a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him and we’re expecting hitter friendly weather in the Bronx on Friday.

Dodgers @ Red Sox

Emmett Sheehan has been fine (15.9 K-BB%, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 41.7 Hard Hit%) in four outings, but it’s a park downgrade with the early forecast for hitter friendly weather at Fenway.

Brayan Bello has posted seven quality starts in his last eight tries, though still has estimators near four with just a 13.7 K-BB% over that span. However, the contact profile has improved (5.3% Barrels/BBE, 33.7 HardHit%). He’s picked up a cutter (15.6%, 70 PitchingBot, 120 Pitching+), while the sinker (35.9%) is the only pitch he’s still throwing more than 20% of the time.

Again, not a great spot, but Bello projects about as well as many mid-range pitchers on Friday night. He’s probably not a pitcher I’m using though.

Rays @ Reds

Another hitter friendly park with temperatures forecast in the mid-80s. Zach Littell has allowed 24 home runs on 43 barrels (11.3%), but has thrived with a 3.5 BB% and 86.2 LOB%. The latter, completely unsustainable.

Nick Martinez has one quality start in his last seven and is down to a 16.9 K%.

Blue Jays @ Tigers

Jose Berrios has allowed eight runs over his last 8.2 innings with three home runs on five barrels (16.1%) with a 54.8 HardHit%. He’s struck out just 13 of his last 85 batters with a 7.1 SwStr%. All of that said, I have him rated similarly to Kremer at a lower price in a better park without particularly hitter friendly weather, against a slumping lineup. He has 12 quality starts in 21 tries, only two with three runs and has popped at least eight strikeouts five times. Before being absolutely shut down by Eric Lauer for eight innings on Wednesday night, the Tigers already had a 50 wRC+, 26.5 K% and 5.4 HR/FB since the break.

Keider Montero’s 3.99 Bot ERA is his only estimator below four and a half with a less confident 95 Pitching+, while he still sits near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings by pure run values. He projects as one of the worst values on the board.

Padres @ Cardinals

Nick Pivetta’s 2.86 ERA is well below still strong peripherals, ranging from a 3.16 FIP to a 3.76 xERA, but along with his ability to miss bats (27.9 K%), he’s still allowing 11.4% Barrels/BBE. The major difference this year is a career low 9.3 HR/FB in a more pitcher friendly park with just 13 of 33 barrels leaving the park. Pivetta costs more than $10K and the ball will fly out of Busch Stadium once it heats up, while the Cardinals are neither an easy or high upside matchup. Pivetta is not on my board here.

Miles Mikolas had a five game 21.4 K-BB% before running into the Diamondbacks last time out. He faced the Brewers and Cubs on the road during that span. The only allure is that he’s cheap ($6.7K or less) with a great defense behind him and facing a San Diego offense that has been awful on the road (88 wRC+). I'd put him in the same SP2 bucket as Bello. I'm likely not doing it, but can see why some might with his recent stretch. 

Cubs @ White Sox

Shota Imanaga has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts with his 11 strikeouts (49 BF) his second highest consecutive start total of the season. His 11.9 SwStr% projects more than his 18.2 K%. His 13.4% called strike rate is worst on the board though, if you discount Sheehan’s three starts. While Imanaga is not getting hit particularly hard (36.8%), the fact that he’s generated 28.3% of his contact on the ground has led to 9.5% Barrels/BBE and more balls in play means more barrels. His velocity started ticking up before he hit the IL, but he’s returned with three starts below 91 mph again and sits a mph below last year’s velocity on the season. The 2.40 ERA is based mostly on a .196 BABIP and 89.7 LOB%, while his 9.0 HR/FB has still turned into 11 home runs. Imanaga still has great pitch modeling, a strong pitch rating run value matchup against the White Sox and a 3.51 xERA, but all other estimators are well above four.

The Adrian Houser Experience has ended after Pittsburgh got him for four runs in 4.1 innings, right? Not so fast! He still generated 56.3% of his contact on the ground with a .625 BABIP against him and struck out five of 22 batters faced. His 96 mph velocity average in the game was a new season high and a full mph above his season average, which is still a career high by nearly half a mph. Houser has been hard to square up and elevate with this newfound velocity. He’s allowed just 4.3% Barrels/BBE, despite a 45.4 HardHit% and though he’s not missing bats (10%) and it doesn’t sound like much, his 4.21 Bot ERA and 98 Pitching+ are still career bests. A 4.34 SIERA is his only estimator higher. Like Imanaga, Houser can’t sustain his miniscule ERA with an 82 LOB% and 3.6 HR/FB, but he’s certainly pitching at a much higher level than in the past and has been about a quarter run better than Imanaga this year.

You guessed it. I’m making another play on a sizeable dog, a little bit less this time, as the White Sox (+156) are at home. These pitchers have completely different approaches, but I’m telling you with confidence that Houser has been the better pitcher this year. That’s not to say he will certainly be here or remain so, but it’s been a fact up to this point and the White Sox even have the better bullpen estimators over the last month.

For daily fantasy purposes, I group Imanaga, in a good matchup, with Kremer and Berrios, a potential top five to seven arm, but at a much higher price. Houser doesn’t have a enough upside against the Cubs and costs $8K or more.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Braves @ Rangers

Joey Wentz is on his third team this season and just made his first start in his second appearance for the Braves, going four innings of shutout ball on two hits. He’s struck out eight of 24 Yankees and Cardinals for Atlanta, but still carries a 5.91 ERA on the season. Despite a 7.4 K-BB%, 10.1% Barrels/BBE and 45.7 HardHit%, Wentz still holds a 4.23 xERA with an even lower 4.06 Bot ERA and doesn’t have an estimator reaching five. Good? No, but not as bad as surface results project with a 65 LOB%. Wentz is a bit interesting at a low price because of the matchup. He should be built up enough to get through the lineup twice. The Rangers have been terrible against LHP (74 wRC+, 25.2 K%), have just an 83 wRC+ at home and a 23.4 K-BB% over the last week.

Nathan Eovaldi has been nothing short of magnificent when healthy this season with a career best 23 K-BB% and a 37 HardHit% that’s his lowest in four years. With a decline in velocity, Eovaldi is throwing a career low 27.7% fastballs, but also curveballs, cutters and splitters around the same frequency. All of these pitches grade average or better and you can see Eovaldi atop the pitch matchup ratings. In fact, his 3.80 Bot ERA is one of just two estimators (3.17 xERA) above three. Of course, the 1.84 ERA carries a bit of good fortune. Just five of his 18 batted balls have left the yard with an 84 LOB%.

In a marginal matchup, Eovaldi is my number three overall pitcher and a solid, not great value. Perhaps a bit better on FanDuel. However, even a marginal Atlanta (+144) lineup is miles ahead of the Rangers, while the Braves are competitive defensively with slightly better pen estimators L30 days. Eovaldi is a big edge over Wentz, but really the only one the Rangers have here.

Guardians @ Royals

Gavin Williams is coming off an 11 strikeout performance (A’s) and had an eight strikeout one two starts prior (Tigers). He previously struck out more than six on May 9^th and has still walked more batters than he’s struck out in four of his last seven starts. The cutter had been his previous new toy, but he threw a season high 21.9% sinkers (3.7% season) against the A’s. That shouldn’t spike your strikeout rate, but it was a season high 19.8%. He threw his fastball a season low 14.6% of the time and threw none of his five pitches more than 24% of the time.

Michael Wacha has struck out just 11 of his last 85 batters with 10 walks and is down to an 18.1 K% on the year, but with elite contact management (32.3 HardHit%) and has had at least a 12 SwStr% in each of his last three starts.

I don’t know what to make of either of these pitchers at this point. They’re both in the middling price range in great run prevention spots, but in matchups without a lot of strikeouts, especially for Williams, the higher upside pitcher of the two. I guess they’re both fine, Wacha as the cheaper of the two, Williams as the more volatile showing more recent upside, but I’m not jamming them into lineups.

Athletics @ Astros

Jeffrey Springs is not a pitcher of interest against the Astros (110 wRC+ at home, 119 vs LHP). I know they’re down a few bats, but it’s still not a good matchup.

The Astros are the only team without a confirmed starts. Roster Resource has Ryan Gusto, who has been up and down in a starting role, but his 4.46 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 3.71 Bot ERA to a 4.33 xFIP overall.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Nationals @ Twins

“Mackenzie Gore is going through a similar mid-season swoon to last year. Fortunately, for him, he’s not being blasted with runs like he was last year (six quality starts in last eight), but after posting a 36.2 K% over his first 12 starts, he’s down to 20% over his last six, 16.8% over his last four and has a double digit walk rate in each of his last three starts.”

Gore has pitched twice since I wrote those words. He struck out seven of 24 Cardinals in a six inning quality start with just a single run and walk. The Padres pounded him for eight runs right after the break. He struck out two, allowing as many home runs with three walks in 2.1 innings.

Zebby Matthews posted an 18.1 K-BB% in nine starts last season, but was also torched for 11 home runs on 17 barrels (14%, 42.1 HardHit%). He posted a 25.7 K-BB% at AAA this year before and 21.2% at the major league level with a higher hard hit rate (45.3%), but fewer barrels (9.4%) because his line drive rate is up to 25.9%. Still, pitch modeling (especially PB) LOVES him and even his 4.01 xERA is two and a quarter runs below his 6.26 ERA (.410 BABIP, 64 LOB%). The contact profile is still scary, but you’d rather have the strikeouts and walks under control because that’s much more sticky. The contact profile is still a work in progress.

I like Zebby’s upside at a low price in a marginal matchup. The way daily fantasy scoring works, a few home runs don’t hurt as much as the strikeouts help, especially on DraftKings.

Mariners @ Angels

Bryan Woo was popped for five runs (four earned) and two home runs by the Astros last time out. However, he dominated early before running into trouble late, which is not really much of an excuse with three barrels and a 47.4 HardHit%, but he still generated 15.4 SwStr% with nearly half his contact on the ground. In fact, he’s generated better than a 44 GB% in each of his last three starts, despite just a 40.1% rate on the season. Woo has pitched very well on the road this season with a 20.6 K-BB% that’s two points better than at home and is in a dangerous, but high upside spot against a projected LAA lineup that includes seven batters above a 23.5 K% against RHP this year.

Jose Soriano is an elite ground ball pitcher (67.6%), who has been hit or miss with the strikeouts. He has  span of three starts with double digit strikeouts twice in the middle of June, but has just a 19.2 K% and 7.5 K-BB% since. He generally does the opposite of what I want or project him to do and the Mariners have been a great road offense this year.

Woo is my 1A (or B) arm on Friday night. He’s a similar price and value than my other top arm on FanDuel. Flip a coin or go with the other guy, who I think will be less popular. He’s more than $1K more expensive on DraftKings, where I certainly have Webb as the higher value. Oh, no! I spoiled it. You never would have guessed.

Mets @ Giants

At least Clay Holmes  has curbed the walks recently (6.1% last three starts), but he’s also struck out just five of his last 43 batters and has recorded just a pair of sixth inning outs over his last six starts. The Mets are looking for ways to limit his workload down the stretch, which, by itself, kills his daily fantasy candidacy here.

Logan Webb has been blasted for 10 runs in his last 11.1 innings and struck out just one of 29 Blue Jays in his last start. However, the Jays have been murdering pitchers at home this year and his previous start was against the Dodgers, who have seen him a ton over the last half decade. His previous two outings were quality starts in Sacramento and Arizona. It’s just a really tough stretch. Webb still carries a carrier high 20.5 K-BB% (tied with 2021) with a 51.8 GB% and a 38.6 HardHit% that’s his best since his 39 inning debut in 2019.

As mentioned, Webb is my 1B (or A) and better value than Woo on DraftKings. He’s still a workhorse arm, not in a great matchup, but a great park. I’m unconcerned about his struggles over a very tough stretch, three on the road in some of the most difficult parks to pitch in and the other against the Dodgers. I usually say that weather and lineups can change things a bit, but both of those are generally pretty steady in these parks. Umpiring may be the thing to watch with Woo and Webb.

We’ll pick up here with more extensive DFS notes on bats in the afternoon.