Wednesday 7/23 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Published on 22 July 2025 at 23:38

With all teams in action six days in a row after the break, Wednesday is get away day for nearly everyone. The result is small daily fantasy slates on Wednesday and Thursday with a lot of early afternoon action.

Works out well enough, as I won’t be around to update on Wednesday anyway. We’ll cover games of interest in depth here with maybe a daily fantasy note or two if relevant. We’re going to skip Thursday’s five games. If anything of interest pops, I’ll post on Action Network (follow Rocky Jade).

Then, we’ll be back for more content on Friday, the MLB.com probables page willing.

Stats are through Monday with a Legend below.

If you find the information on this site helpful, the tip jar is open @ mtrollo86@gmail.com on Paypal.

Reds @ Nationals

Nick Lodolo threw his second seven inning quality start of the season with a total of two runs and 16 strikeouts in those two starts. All of his estimators are below four.

Mike Soroka has a 5.10 ERA, but a 4.38 Bot ERA is his only non-FIP estimator above four (65.8 LOB%).

Padres @ Marlins

Dylan Cease has struck out at least eight in five of his last seven starts, but with only three quality starts over that span. A .325 BABIP and 69.1 LOB% have his 4.64 ERA well above estimators. A 3.65 Bot ERA is his closest one.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed 25 runs over his last 29 innings, striking out just 18 of 133 batters.

Giants @ Braves

Justin Verlander has a .512 BABIP and 47.7 GB% over his last three starts, so maybe he’s getting a bit unlucky, though it’s sad to see the 11 K-BB%. His velo has been up to 95 mph last two starts. 

Spencer Strider has struck out 19 of his last 49 batters. The velocity is not great and the fastball grades average at best with a career low 8.0 SwStr%, but the he’s still missing bats with the slider (27 SwStr%).

Tigers @ Pirates

Jacob Melton is a 50 Future Value arm and sixth best prospect in the Detroit system according to Fangraphs. He’s thrown his 96.7 mph fastball 50% of the time at AAA this season, producing a 26 K-BB%.

Bailey Falter has an 11.1 K% over his last 10 starts, averaging fewer than five innings per.

Angels @ Mets

It looks like a bullpen game for the Angels. Roster Resource has Carson Fulmer listed as the bulk pitcher. There is no current line on this game. 

Sean Manaea has struck out 13 of 31 batters using just a slider (10.3 SwStr%) and fastball (16 SwStr%).

Royals @ Cubs

The Marlins touched Seth Lugo up for five runs last time out. Last year it was a 7.4 HR/FB, which has almost doubled this year (13.5%), but he’s now running a .244 BABIP and 86.3 LOB% keeping his 2.94 ERA more than a run below all estimators.

Roster Resource is listing Colin Rea, who’s also running an ERA (3.80) more than two-thirds of a run below all estimators, due to an 81.3 LOB%.

Cardinals @ Rockies

Andrew Pallante is a ground ball machine (61.6%) with a 7.3 K-BB%.

Roster Resource has Tanner Gordon listed. He made three marginal starts in May. He doesn’t walk anybody, but also has a 15.6 K% in 51.1 major league innings.

Astros @ Diamondbacks

This would be Brandon Walter’s turn, but no confirmation yet. He has a 23.7 K-BB% with a 1.6 BB% through his first eight major league starts.

Brandon Pfaadt has allowed two runs over his last 15 innings without a walk and has a 22.8 K-BB% over his last five. A predominantly right-handed, depleted Houston lineup should help him continue that work here.

Brewers @ Mariners

Although they’ve occasionally given him an opener, Quinn Priester has thrown at least six innings with two runs or less in seven of his last 10 outings with double digit strikeout efforts in two of his last four. He has a 20.2 K-BB% with a 60.9 GB% over that entire span. The only thing I can find is that his command grades (61 PitchingBot, 108 Location+) have greatly improved over this stretch. He seems legit.

Luis Castillo has allowed three runs over his last 18.2 innings with a 24.3 K-BB% to bring him all the way up to league average (13.4%) on the season. His velocity has been slowly declining along with his K-BB over the last few years, but the park and the fact that he pitches in a division with so many right-handed batters seems to hide some of his deficiencies. Earlier in the season, LHBs were pummeling him at home, but they’re now down to a .320 wOBA against him at T-Mobile with a .344 wOBA and .353 xwOBA against him overall. Castillo’s 3.21 ERA is the product of a 79.1 LOB% (highest since rookie season with less than 100 IP) and just one-third of his barrels leaving the park, though seven of his 12 home runs have been surrendered at home. Castillo doesn’t have a non-FIP estimator below four.

It took us 60% of the board to get there, but we’ve finally found one. The Brewers balance their lineup well and should throw at least five LHBs at Castillo, while Priester has been pitching like an All Start for a couple of months now. Offenses are comparable, but if you look at the defensive and bullpen numbers, the red hot Brewers have massive edges, along with a decent base running one too.

Bullpen L30 day stats...

Twins @ Dodgers

Following a stretch of 17 runs (16 earned) over 64 innings with a 12.8 K-BB%, Chris Paddack has allowed 34 runs (32 earned) over his last 33.2 innings with an 11.3 K-BB%. He has allowed multiple barrels in three of his last four starts, but for the most part, the differences have been in BABIP and LOB%. Massive BABIP and LOB% swings. While all estimators are below his 5.14 ERA, only a 3.85 Bot ERA (pitch modeling LOVES his changeup) is below four and a half.

Tyler Glasnow was up to a season high 97.3 mph in his last start and 96.8 mph in his first start back from the IL, both well above his career 96.3 mph average. He’s struck out 11 of 43 since returning with just a 10.9 SwStr% and has just a 9.8 SwStr% on the season with a 15.8 K-BB%. You wonder if all the injuries are starting to take a toll, but while the pitch modeling has been better since his return, it’s still decent, rather than great territory (3.79 Bot ERA, 107 Pitching+). People may not notice the decline with a 3.10 ERA, but a 3.70 dERA is Glasnow’s best estimator on the season (.212 BABIP, 81 LOB%).

While I still have Glasnow three-quarters of a run better than Paddack, this isn’t the same Glasnow we’re used to seeing right now. I also love taking shots with big dogs with a bullpen advantage (+200 in this case) with the LAD bullpen suffering a further blow with he loss of their closer on Monday night.

Orioles @ Guardians

Zach Eflin returns from the IL less than a week short of a month away. A 15.6 K% is his worst since 2017 and a 39.7 HardHit% is a career worst. Each of his three rehab starts were exactly four innings, striking out just 11 of 52 batters and none were at AAA.

Slade Cecconi’s 15.1 K-BB% is a career best, but with 12.3% Barrels/BBE and a 46.5 HardHit%, he still has a 4.71 xERA nearly a run above his 3.84 ERA. In fact, all estimators are above his ERA.

Cecconi isn’t a bad DFS value on either site on the small slate, but not my favorite and barely a top five arm.

Red Sox @ Phillies

Lucas Giolito snapped a three game quality start and six starts of six innings or more streak last time out, but still didn’t pitch too poorly at Wrigley. He’s posted a 20.5 K-BB% over his last six starts with a 12.1 SwStr% and has sat above 94 mph in three of this six starts (exactly 93.4 in each of the three others).

April and most of May Cy Young winner Jesus Luzardo hasn’t been able to find and keep a rhythm ever since getting blasted for 12 runs by the Brewers. He does have three quality starts totaling 19.2 innings with just one run and 24 strikeouts since, but has also allowed at least four runs in three of his last six. He still owns a 19.4 K-BB%, allowing just 6.6% Barrels/BBE on the season, but RHBs now own a .348 wOBA and .339 xwOBA against him this season.

I have Giolito rated very similarly to Cecconi here and he’s actually similarly priced too. Coin flip. Luzardo, however, is my 1A and a better value I think.

Below, these last two graphics are pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Yankees @ Blue Jays

You could say Max Fried has met with a little bit of regression over his last three starts (14 IP – 11 R), but he’s actually pitched much worse over that span (4.7 K-BB% against a tough schedule of the Mets, Blue Jays and Cubs). His 17.6 K-BB% is now pretty much in line with his career numbers (17.1%) and while he’s still generating a lot of ground balls (51.3%) with a strong contact profile (6.4% Barrels/BBE, 36.8 HardHit%), those are also some of his worst numbers in years. With just nine of his 22 barrels leaving the park and seven of his 40 runs unearned, Fried is sporting a 2.43 ERA that’s more than half a run below estimators ranging from a 3.03 FIP to a 3.57 Bot ERA. Still quality stuff, but he’s no Tarik Skubal.

With a .338 BABIP, Chris Bassitt may be deserving of some regression in the opposite direction. His 3.89 ERA is near the top end of estimators ranging from a 3.67 FIP & xFIP to a 3.90 xERA with just a 34.3 HardHit% and 16.3 K-BB% that’s his highest since Oakland. I’m not sure how his xERA isn’t lower with that contact profile, but LHBs remain an issue (.370 wOBA, .346 xwOBA).

Our first order of business is with comparable offenses and one of the superior defenses in the league, I like the home dog here (+128 F5) a bit. I’d rather avoid a pair of messy bullpens right now. I only have Fried about a quarter run better than Bassitt this year.

Which brings me to my second point. It’s pretty amazing I have Fried outside my top five on a five game slate, but it’s that tough a matchup. However, I have Bassitt as my 1B to Luzardo’s 1A (or vice versa) and perhaps the top value on the board. People don’t realize this Yankee lineup has some strikeouts in it (five projected above 24.5 K% vs RHP this year) and has been pretty empty at the bottom lately.

White Sox @ Rays

Jonathan Cannon will occasionally pop a solid start, but has just two starts of more than six innings and also only two with as many as six strikeouts. You’re chasing a low ceiling with him.

Taj Bradley has struck out 16 of his last 69 batters with a 12.2 SwStr%, but the fact that that represents upside for him now is a bit disappointing. With an 11.8 K-BB% on the season, he’s become a contact manager (47.8 GB%, 6.0% Barrels/BBE) with a 3.56 xERA his best estimator by a quarter of a run and some terrible pitch modeling.

Athletics @ Rangers

J.P. Sears has a 24.3 K%, but just 9.5 SwStr% over his last seven starts. The 13.4 K-BB% and league average contact profile scream league average (4.04 xERA), but the park and the 28.9 GB% kill his ERA and additional estimators, although the pitch modeling is about average too.

Welp, they said Nathan Eovaldi was pitching either Wednesday or Thursday and somewhere around 11pm ET, they decided it would be Thursday. 

LEGEND
Opp wRC+
Opposing offense’s wRC+ against L/RHP this season (in first graphic)
DEF Projected lineup(Roster Resource) Fielding Run Value & Team Runs Prevented now both in first graphic
Bullpen SIERA/xFIP/FIP average over the last 30 days (because there’s so much bullpen turnover)
BSR: Projected Lineup Base Running Runs also in first graphic

Don’t hesitate to ask about anything else that’s unclear.

Follow @FreelanceBBall on Twitter and Bsky.app

Add comment

Comments

There are no comments yet.