Wednesday 7/9 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rays @ Tigers

Zach Littell has allowed a single run while striking out five in three straight starts. He’s also posted a quality start in two-thirds of his outings this year. He doesn’t walk anyone (3.4%). The problem? He doesn’t miss bats (17.3 K%) with too many barrels (12%) and can’t sustain his .248 BABIP or 89.5 LOB%. Littell’s best estimators are a 4.15 SIERA and xFIP with contact neutral estimators at four and a half.

Reese Olson struck out just three of 19 Guardians in his first major league start in almost two months, but did so with a 14.6 SwStr% and only three hard hit batted balls. His velocity was down a bit.

We’re focusing on Littell and his impending regression in this one because it’s our path towards Detroit going over their team total (4.5) at a nice price (+114). We know Detroit has been one of the better offenses in the league this year, but the real surprise is seeing the defensive numbers above for the projected Tampa Bay lineup (-17 FRV). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Blue Jays @ White Sox

While it’s nice to see both of these veteran pitchers resurrect their careers this year, neither is a pitcher of interest on Wednesday afternoon, while both are running strand rates in the mid-80s. We move on.

Dodgers @ Brewers

Tyler Glasnow went down with a shoulder injury in his fifth start of the season in April, having posted a sub-par (for him) 15.6 K-BB%, while allowing eight barrels (19%). His pitch modeling rivals Antonio Senzatela for worst on the board with contact neutral estimators above four and contact inclusive ones above five. Glasnow did strike out eight of 19 in his most recent AAA rehab start. Projections average around four and a half, which would be conservative if he’s actually healthy.

Not gonna Quintana, when we don’t gotta Quintana.

Phillies @ Giants

Not a game of interest today, but will note that both Jesus Luzardo and Justin Verlander have ERA’s well above four. One has an 18.9 K-BB%, allowing 6.3% Barrels/BBE. The other has a 19.2 K%, allowing 10.8% Barrels/BBE, both with a hard hit rate a bit north of 40%.

Mets @ Orioles

David Peterson has walked exactly three in four straight starts (4.0 K-BB%), but has still posted a pair of quality starts in that stretch because of his 54.9 GB% (56.7% on the season) with just five barrels (7%). He’s also recorded at least two seventh inning outs in five of his last eight starts. Peterson’s 3.18 ERA is still a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.51 FIP to a 4.51 Bot ERA mostly because 10% of his runs have been unearned, as his strand rate has now dropped into the mid-70s. Pitch modeling is not a fan, though Peterson does have the third best pitch matchup rating on the daily fantasy slate by pure run values.

Last time out against Texas was just the fourth time Tomoyuki Sugano struck out even as many as five batters in a start this year. He’s exceeded that total once. We may talk more about him in the pitchers to attack section in the afternoon.

David Peterson is my number four pitcher on Wednesday night. How? Part of it is the workload potential, but the larger issue is that Coby Mayo has the lowest strikeout rate against LHP in Roster Resource’s projected lineup (22.6%). The Orioles have a 75 wRC+, 25.2 K% and 7.4 HR/FB against LHP as a team. I also have Peterson as a solid top third of the board value on DraftKings and FanDuel. 

Mariners @ Yankees

One quarter of Logan Evans’ 20 runs have been unearned. All estimators are well more than a run above his 2.96 ERA. We’ll likely be talking more about him with daily fantasy bats in the afternoon.

Cam Schiltter is currently Fangraphs’ number five Yankee prospect with 45 Future Value grade. His January scouting report noted a strong AA season in 2024 with a 29.8 K% and 51.2 GB%. He’s a big, hard throwing dude with several secondaries, but none above average. Though the ground ball rate dipped below 50% this year, he improved at AA (22.2 K-BB% in 53 IP) and excelled at AAA (26.5 K-BB% in 23.2 IP), though projections are conservatively around four and a half.

Rockies @ Red Sox

I’ve no doubt we’ll be talking about Boston bats in the afternoon, but let’s start here with another play on their total, one run higher than Tuesday (5.5 -113). Antonio Senzatela has one quality start this season. It came in April with two strikeouts. With a 3.3 K-BB% and 45.4 HardHit%, his best estimator is a 5.00 xFIP that has to assume a league average HR/FB rate. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him. It’s not expected to be as warm in Boston on Tuesday, but I don’t expect the weather to hurt one of the top run environments in the league. The Red Sox are the hottest offense in the league and will be facing a sub-par defense and bullpen as well.

Lucas Giolito has five straight quality starts, only one with more than one run (though four unearned runs over this stretch), and eight in 12 starts this year. His velocity has been trending up, above 94 mph three times during this run, his first three times this season (93.5 mph season avg), posting a 16.8 K-BB% (13.6%) season with just four barrels. This is starting to look like a decent pitcher who is finally healthy. Amazing that pitch modeling does NOT believe he’s improved over this span, but I still won’t quibble too much with a 3.66 ERA that’s below other non-FIP estimators ranging from 4.02 xFIP to a 4.79 xERA because if he keeps pitching as he has been lately and not like he did in his first month back from Tommy John Surgery, those estimators should improve.

Obviously mostly matchup based, Giolito is my 2A to a 2B coming later. I also have him as a solid value on both sites, but a top three potential value on DK, where he is $1.2K less.

Marlins @ Reds

Sandy Alcantara’s only redeeming value is that he’s gone six innings in five of his last six starts, if you’re looking for a cheap QS on FanDuel ($7.4K), but he only has three quality starts in this span and gets a park downgrade here.

Andrew Abbott has a 32.4 HardHit%, helping him to a 3.21 xERA, despite 8.4% Barrels/BBE. He also has a 23 K%, but just 13.2% over his last three starts. He’s way overpriced due to the 85.9 LOB%

Pirates @ Royals

Six straight starts with few than six innings for Bailey Falter, allowing 16 runs (15 earned) in 26.2 innings with a 4.3 K-BB% (6.4% season), 11% Barrels/BBE (8.4%) and 46.2 HardHit% (44.6%). I can not fathom his season 4.02 xERA with his next best estimator a 4.41 Bot ERA and the reminder above four and a half and even five. He’s running well with a .232 BABIP and six of his 44 runs unearned. We’re going to play an under again here, but not because of him.

Kris Bubic has had some difficulties, as he’s allowed 17 runs (15 earned) over his last 27.2 innings too, but he’s done so with a 14.5 K-BB%, still lower than his 17.9% season mark and 50.6 HardHit% (40.2% season). However, after a bit of a velocity dip (half a mph), he’s been back above 92 mph in each of his last two starts, a seven inning quality start in Arizona. Bubic has faced other dangerous offenses like the Dodgers, Rays and Yankees during this stretch. I still think Bubic is a viable arm, who’s worst estimator is a 3.76 Bot ERA, as you see him sitting atop our pitch matchup ratings in a great spot.

As mentioned, we’re playing the under (8.5 -108) for the third time in this series (1-1 so far), due to the incompetence of these offenses and strength of these defenses. It doesn’t hurt that Bubic is pretty good too. He’s easily my top daily fantasy pitcher on the board and best value on FanDuel. He’s also a top three DraftKings value for me too, just barely ahead of Giolito, despite the $1.5K higher price.

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Cubs @ Twins

Cade Horton is coming off seven shutout innings against the Guardians (five hits & strikeouts), no great feat these days, but still notable for a guy coming off three poor starts in his previous four. Horton threw a season high 24.4% changeups against the lefty heavy lineup and the pitch starred with a 67 Pitching Bot grade and 125 Pitching+. Horton is generally pretty fastball heavy with mixed results (51.3%, 58 PB, 99 P+, -1.03 RV/100), a pitch the Twins are middle of the board against (-0.13 RV/100). Pitching Bot (3.89) likes him a bit more than Pitching+ (98) overall, but all of his other non-FIP estimators are between 4.41 (dERA) and 4.49 (xERA). Eventually, I think he's a bit more talented than that. 

David Festa has an above average 15.6 K-BB%, but is too barrel heavy (10.7%) in a hitter friendly park in a tough matchup for our needs.

Horton has a more neutral matchup and I think he has some value at a lower price. I’m not sure I’m playing him on FanDuel, where I need six innings (though only Bubic averages that), but he’s probably my leading SP2 candidate below $8.5K on DraftKings.

Nationals @ Cardinals

Mackenzie Gore is going through a similar mid-season swoon to last year. Fortunately, for him, he’s not being blasted with runs like he was last year (six quality starts in last eight), but after posting a 36.2 K% over his first 12 starts, he’s down to 20% over his last six, 16.8% over his last four and has a double digit walk rate in each of his last three starts. As such, he’s not far outside my top five on Wednesday, but not a pitcher I want to roster right now at a high price.

Andre Pallante’s 63.9 GB% has some real actual baseball value, even if his 8.0 K-BB% does nothing for his daily fantasy value on most nights. He has struck out as many as seven three times, but has been no higher than four in 13 of his other 14 starts. He also has four seven inning quality starts with two runs or less. PitchingBot hates him, but a 4.16 xERA is his only other non-FIP estimator above a 4.10 ERA. Pallante may have some daily fantasy value at a price below $8K (10-15 DK points or a QS for FD), but he’s not going to win you anything.

Guardians @ Astros

Slade Cecconi’s 15.1 K-BB% is fine. Impressive even. His 13.6% Barrels/BBE and 51.4 HardHit% are major problems, resulting in a 5.22 xERA. Importantly, against the Astros (who are now playing more LHBs as more players hit the IL), RHBs have a .285 wOBA, but .335 xwOBA against him.

Brandon Walter, former Top 100 prospect before being derailed by injuries, struck out a season low three Rockies at Coors last time out, being touched up for five runs over as many innings. It still happens. Although, not as often as it used to. Coors can still be a tough place to pitch. Walter threw a season high 35.2% sinkers in the start and did generate a 55.6 GB%, while dropping back to 6.6% on his changeup and it didn’t work out. Okay. He’s still struck out 33 of 145 batters with just two walks! He keeps the ball on the ground (51.9 GB%) and has allowed just six barrels in six starts. He has a 4.15 ERA because all six of his barrels have left the park. Walter’s 3.91 Bot ERA is his only non-FIP estimator exceeding three and a quarter runs.

We have a few things going on here. First of all, I believe the market has undervalued Walter’s strikeout prop here again after that Coors showing. Against LHP, the Guardians generally start five guys above a 27 K% against southpaws. As a team, they have a 74 wRC+, 24.2 K% and 7.1 HR/FB against LHP. So, in addition to playing Walter’s K prop (4.5 +112), I’m also playing the Astros F5 (-130) and full game (-144) for a unit each. Yes, they’re down a few bats, but Walter is being severely undervalued here. Why do you think he costs at least $8.5K on either site here. Walter is my number five arm overall, but a better value on Fanduel, where he’s a couple hundred cheaper.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which can differ from actual results. 

Rangers @ Angels

Kumar Rocker still has only gone more than 5.1 innings twice, but has allowed just six runs over his last 21.2 innings and has a 23.8 K% (17 K-BB%) over his last seven starts. The bad news is that his 5.80 ERA matches a 5.78 xERA with a terrible contact profile (11.9% Barrels/BBE, 47.6 HardHit%), but even there, he’s been slightly better recently, even with four barrels in San Diego in his last start. Contact neutral estimators are just below four, though pitch modeling doesn’t like him very much. LHBs have a .402 wOBA and .404 against him, but he doesn’t have much to fear from the Angels in that department.

Kyle Hendricks still manages contact extremely well (34.8 HardHit%) without walks (5.9%), but the upside of just a 15.9 K% (7.2 SwStr%) at this point.

Rocker would be my second choice behind Horton for a cheaper SP2 pitcher on DraftKings.

Diamondbacks @ Padres

Brandon Pfaadt has struck out 22 of his last 69 batters with four walks, so perhaps he’s coming out of his season long funk, but he still doesn’t have a quality start since May and did that without a strikeout. He’s not a pitcher we’re interested in using in a low upside matchup against the Padres. We’ll see if he’s a pitcher we want to attack in a negative run environment in the afternoon.

Dylan Cease has certainly had his rough starts throughout the first half and has even tied a season low four strikeouts in two of his last three starts, but posted his first single digit SwStr (9.7%) in a game last time out, having posted an 18.5 SwStr% over his previous 10 starts. He easily has the top SwStr rate on the board (16.2%) and second best strikeout rate behind Gore, who has been declining recently. Even when he’s not giving you run prevention, he’s giving you strikeouts and very occasionally, you get both (three quality starts with two runs or less and at least nine strikeouts). There’s also a little bit of run bad here (.328 BABIP, 68.6 LOB%). All of his estimators are nearly a run or more below his 4.62 ERA (3.67 Bot ERA is his worst, while his 108 Pitching+ is best on the slate).

Not a great matchup, but in a pitcher friendly park on a marginal pitching slate, I have to respect Cease’s upside. I have him very much in line with Giolito (2A/2B) and a better value for $700 less on FanDuel.

Braves @ Athletics

Since striking out 12 batters in San Francisco, Bryce Elder has allowed 23 runs (22 earned) in 15.2 innings with just 13 strikeouts and a 2.1 K-BB%. He’s allowed 10 barrels (14.9%) with a 50.7 HardHit% during this span as well. While his contact neutral estimators are still in the low fours, his 6.21 xERA nearly matches his 5.92 ERA and you find him only above Senzatela  in the pitch matchup ratings below. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against Elder this year.

Mitch Spence’s five strikeouts in each of his last two starts are season highs for non-relief outings (seven in an earlier long relief stint). He doesn’t miss many bats, but has a league average 13.2 K-BB%. The real problem is his 12.4% Barrels/BBE allowed, while LHBs have really walloped him (.387 wOBA, .378 xwOBA). The park does Spence no favors, but he does have pretty strong pitch modeling with contact neutral estimators just below four.

I’m not going to argue that Spence is good, but he’s been far better than Elder, while the A’s also have an offensive edge (see the first chart). The Braves still have a large defensive edge (though a bit less with Clarke in center) and I want to avoid the best pen estimators in the league over the last month, but I have the A’s as F5 favorites and will gladly take -104 here.

Back early in the afternoon with more daily fantasy notes in a similar format to Tuesday.