Thursday 7/10 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Mets @ Orioles (G1)

David Peterson has walked exactly three in four straight starts (4.0 K-BB%), but has still posted a pair of quality starts in that stretch because of his 54.9 GB% (56.7% on the season) with just five barrels (7%). He’s also recorded at least two seventh inning outs in five of his last eight starts. Peterson’s 3.18 ERA is still a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.51 FIP to a 4.51 Bot ERA mostly because 10% of his runs have been unearned, as his strand rate has now dropped into the mid-70s. Pitch modeling is not a fan, though Peterson does have the top pitch matchup rating on the board.

It looks like the Orioles have confirmed Charlie Morton for G1. He’s been much better since moving back into the rotation (20.6 K-BB%, 5.1% Barrels/BBE, 35.4 HardHit%) with an ERA and estimators around three.

Cubs @ Twins

Colin Rea has been fine, but unexciting with no more than four strikeouts in 10 of his last 12 outings. Down to a 16.9 K%, while allowing 10.7% Barrels/BBE, estimators ranging from a 4.47 SIERA & xFIP to a 5.02 xERA exceed his 4.13 ERA with a 79.3 LOB%.

While Chris Paddick has a double digit strikeout effort on his ledger, he’s struck out no more than five in 15 of 18 starts and only more than six the one time. He has the second best pitch modeling on the board, mostly changeup (23.5%, 72 PitchingBot, 128 Pitching+), despite slightly negative performance (-0.6 RV/100). Otherwise, his 4.54 ERA sits within a quarter run of remaining non-FIP estimators.

Mets @ Orioles (G2)

We quickly return to Baltimore for G2, scheduled for a 5:05 EST start, five hours after the start of the first game, considered a split double-header. No market for this game as the Mets have not confirmed a pitcher. They’re bringing back Senga and Manaea for the weekend series, but get an extra man for the DH and may end up throwing Justin Hagenman in a bulk role. He’s competently struck out 10 of 41 major league batters without a walk, but three home runs on four barrels and a 64.5 HardHit%. He’s posted a 20.1 K-BB% and 44.5 HardHit% at AAA.

Last time out against Texas was just the fourth time Tomoyuki Sugano struck out even as many as five batters in a start this year. He’s exceeded that total once. The league has started to catch up with him as his strand rate drops towards a more normal rate (6.13 ERA, 5.91 FIP, 4.83 xFIP, 73.1 LOB% last nine starts).

Marlins @ Reds

The Marlins have been holding Cal Quantrill to twice through the order, averaging 19 batters faced over his last 13 starts and it seems to be working. He’s posted a 16.1 K-BB% over this stretch, which keeps him in average pitcher range, despite a suboptimal contact profile (11.3% Barrels/BBE, 42.4 HardHit%). The 30.5 GB% over this span with all those barrels are a concern in Cincinnati, but luckily, it’s inhabited by the Reds, who have just an 89 wRC+ and 11.6 HR/FB at home in the most power friendly park in the league.

Nick Lodolo is coming off striking out eight of 24 Phillies, his second highest total of the year, the first time he’s completed six innings in three starts. In fact, since doing that in his first three starts, he’s done that in only seven of his last 15 starts. His 16.8 K-BB% and 42.6 HardHit% on the season aren’t much different than Quantrill’s last 13 starts, the major difference being the 8.8% Barrels/BBE Lodolo has allowed this year. He still has the better numbers overall with estimators ranging from a 3.74 SIERA to a 4.16 FIP just above his 3.58 ERA with an 80 LOB% that merits some regression.

Still giving credit to Lodolo for being three-quarters of a run better than Quantrill, I’m finding enough reason to back the upstart Marlins (+152). The improving offense hasn’t translated to as much success against LHP, but they’re still pretty comparable to the Reds in this spot overall. Miami also has much better defensive and bullpen numbers. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Mariners @ Yankees

Four straight quality starts with a total of four runs (two earned) in 25 innings for Bryan Woo, who has also struck out 26 of his last 73 batters with a 16 SwStr%. Woo’s career 5.2 K-BB% drop on the road, as opposed to in Seattle, increased to 7.3% last year, but has been reversed in 2025 to the point where his K-BB is 3.1 points higher on the road (21.4%). He has allowed nine of his 14 home runs on the road in 17.1 more innings. Woo is allowing more hard contact this season, but that only translates to an average contact profile (9.1% Barrels/BBE, 38 HardHit%).

Marcus Stroman has pitched poorly in five starts this season and will likely be mentioned more prominently in our hitting daily fantasy notes in the afternoon.

I expected Woo to be my top rated pitcher on Thursday and was surprised to find him only tied for second (wait till you hear that one) as the most expensive pitcher on the board. I currently have him rated as the third best value on either site. 

Rays @ Red Sox

The three runs Taj Bradley allowed in 5.2 innings in Minnesota last time out was his second best start in his last six. Bradley has struck out just 20 over that span, while allowing 27 runs in 27 innings (21 earned). The one thing he has done is manage contact very well (5.9% Barrels/BBE, 37.6 HardHit%), but his bat missing ability has nearly disappeared with more than a six point drop in his strikeout rate (20.3%) and three point drop in his swinging strike rate (9.6%) from last season without an improvement to his walk rate (8.9%). Bradley has some of the worst pitch modeling on the board and is near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings with or without including it. This will be Bradley's fourth straight road start. 

Walker Buehler really hasn’t been able to build any momentum since returning from Tommy John surgery in 2024. There have been glimpses of improvement in strong spots here and there, but nothing has ever really held. Over his last seven starts, Buehler has allowed 35 runs (32 earned) in 31 innings with a 3.8 K-BB%. He’s been a bit unfortunate that nine of his 11 barrels (9.9%) have left the yard, but that’s still a lot of barrels with a 43.2 HardHit% over this stretch. For the season, batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

To start with, Bradley has struck out no more than five in six straight starts and even that many only twice with just a 7.5 SwStr% over this span, while only reaching 90 pitches once. The addition of Yoshida adds a low strikeout bat to the Boston lineup. I’m going under Bradley’s strikeout prop (4.5 +128). Add that performance to Buehler not having an estimator below three and a half and I’m also going over 9 (-115) in the third highest run environment in the league.

Guardians @ White Sox

Logan Allen is showing some signs of life with a 13.9 K-BB% over his last five starts (8.0% season), allowing just 12 runs (11 earned) in 29 innings with three quality starts. Allen has managed contact well all season (34.1 HardHit%), but still doesn’t have an estimator better than his 4.44 FIP & dERA or 4.46 xERA. His fastball velocity began showing more signs of life in late May and after posting an average 90.4 mph fastball over his first nine starts, he’s at 91.6 mph over his last seven, although it hasn’t coincided with an increase in his swinging strike rate. The increased in strikeouts has come mostly via called strikes, which may be harder to sustain.

With all estimators except a 4.36 Bot ERA exceeding his 4.50 ERA, Jonathan Cannon is not a pitcher of interest on this slate.

I really only mention Allen in length because he has a great matchup on a very tough pitching slate past the top three, he’s a guy you could use on Thursday, who I normally wouldn’t endorse on a better slate.  

Bullpen stats L30 days...

Nationals @ Cardinals

Mike Soroka has pitched much better than his 5.40 ERA (64.7 LOB%, 19.9 K-BB%, 6.5% Barrels/BBE) with his worst estimator a 4.16 BotERA and most estimators around three and a half. However, this is not a good spot for him (good offense in a neutral park with hitter friendly weather) and he surprisingly costs at least $8.5K on either site, despite the poor surface results. Soroka has only posted quality starts in one-third of his outings because he’s only thrown enough innings to qualify for one that many times, another strike against his daily fantasy value.

Miles Mikolas has allowed at least six runs in three of his last five starts, but he does have four quality starts in his last nine and actually has a 20.7 K-BB% over his last four starts to push him into double digits on the season (10.6%). The contact profile is terrible with 13 barrels over his last two starts! His season 5.26 ERA matches his dERA (5.24) and xERA (5.25).

If you want to pay $7.5K and pray for a quality start in a marginal matchup with Mikolas showing some increased upside recently, this is really the only kind of slate I’d consider it on, though it’s still not nearly among my favorite things to do here.

Braves @ Athletics

After averaging 95.1 mph in his first five starts back from TJS, Spencer Strider has been between 95.8 and 96.2 mph in each of his last five starts with improved results, even though he still isn’t holding his starting velocity deep into games. Strider’s 19 K-BB% in his season debut was his highest mark through his first five starts, while he’s only posted one game below that in four of his last five. The contact profile has remained about league average throughout, though nine of his 12 barrrels (8.6%) have come in just three starts with five of them in his first home start against the Diamondbacks. Pitch modeling is not on board, as you can see below, but his 3.93 ERA is now above all other estimators, ranging from a 3.59 SIERA & dERA to a 3.89 xERA.

Striking out 10 of 44 batters, J.P. Sears hasn’t allowed a run in 11.2 innings against the Giants and Yankees  last two times out. His 21.9 GB% and 18.5 K% really doesn’t mesh with this park (8.9% Barrels/BBE), but he doesn’t walk many (6.1%) with a near league average hard contact rate (40.3%). Ironically, Sears has better pitch modeling than Strider and a not so terrible 4.22 xERA, though additional estimators are above four and a half.

Okay, so this is going to be really conflicting. Despite the park, Strider is my clear top arm on the board and second best value. Not because it’s a good matchup. It’s not. The A’s are a dangerous offense, but they strike out a ton. They have five projected batters exceeding a 25 K% vs RHP with only two below 21.5%. That said, the A’s have been the much better offense here as the Braves haven’t been able to touch LHP. In fact, Acuna, Olson and Murphy also exceed a 30 K% against southpaws this year. The offensive gap makes up most of the difference between Strider and Sears (which I have as a full run) with home field countering the Atlanta defensive edge somewhat. I can avoid the much better Atlanta bullpen by staying F5 (+142).

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Rangers @ Angels

Patrick Corbin has allowed more than three runs in just two of his 16 starts and posted quality starts in five of his last 11. He’s not good all of a sudden. His 11.6 K-BB% is still below average and half a point lower than last year, but he’s upped his cutter usage to a 21% with strong modeling grades (68 PB, 118 P+) and the biggest impact can be seen in his contact profile with Corbin’s lowest barrel rate (8.9%) since the pandemic season and lowest hard hit rate (38.3%) since Arizona. His 4.18 ERA matches his xFIP (4.17) with similar pitch modeling (see below) and estimators running only as high as a 4.58 xERA. Crazy to think, but the Rangers may even be able to get something for parting with him in a few weeks. This is a great matchup against an Angels offense with a 23.1 K-BB% against southpaws with six in the projected lineup above a 26 K% against them this year.

Jack Koch has as many or more Ks in his name than in his box score in four of his last five starts. Let that settle in. He has one quality start since April with his 4.43 dERA the only estimator he currently owns better than Corbin’s worst.

Hang on for more crazy. Not only do you have to lay money with Corbin on the road, but I don’t think it’s enough (-112 F5). Corbin is also tied for my second best pitcher on the board and may be the top value on the slate in an extremely high upside spot. You may begin to breathe again.

Diamondbacks @ Padres

Eduardo Rodriguez has been some boom (9+ strikeouts four times, all on the road, mostly against poor offenses) and some bust (8+ runs three times – Mets, Dodgers, Royals), but mostly “meh”, though his 17 K-BB% and 34.9 HardHit% overall deserves much better than the 5.78 ERA with only his 4.79 Bot ERA within a run and a half (.369 BABIP, 64.5 LOB%, 70% home run to barrel ratio).

Randy Vasquez has a 1.8 K-BB% with LHBs owning a .357 wOBA, but .416 xwOBA against him.

Less likely against the contact prone Padres, especially as they’ll play some lefties against him and they have a wOBA and xwOBA above .370 against ERod this year, but if you want to take a shot that he pops a bit one, this might be the slate to do it.

We’ll cover hitters more in the afternoon, but most of my pitcher exposure would probably be centered around the Strider, Corbin, Woo trio.