Tuesday 7/8 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Mets @ Orioles

Clay Holmes has walked 14 of his last 68 batters (-8.8 K-BB%).

Brandon Young has gone exactly four innings in three of four starts (4.2 in the other) and allowed exactly three runs in three of four starts (four In the other).

Rays @ Tigers

Ryan Pepiot got back up on his horse after a blowup in Baltimore and has struck out at least seven in five of his last six starts.

Jack Flaherty has poor pitch modeling, but aside from that, all other estimators are more than half a run below his 4.84 ERA (64% home run to barrel rate) with a 19.3 K-BB%.

Mariners @ Yankees

Logan Gilbert has allowed 11 runs in just 20 innings in four starts back from the IL. He hasn’t been pitching deep into games, but and he’s been barreled up quite a bit (16.7%), but five of eight barrels have left the park in this span with just a 37.5 HardHit%. More importantly, Gilbert has posted a 29.8 K-BB% since returning from the IL. Like most Seattle pitchers, Gilbert pitches better at home, but still has an 18.3 career K-BB% on the road and 19.9% last year. Pitch modeling loves him and his 3.13 Bot ERA is his only estimator reaching three.

Will Warren’s estimators (3.24 FIP – 3.77 dERA) paint a much clearer picture than his 5.02 ERA (.336 BABIP, 65.9 LOB%). He’s still a very volatile pitcher. Sometimes that volatility works for us, but not so much against a Seattle offense that strikes out less and is much mor dangerous on the road.

Logan Gilbert is one of my top two pitchers today, essentially interchangeable with another arm we’ll talk about much later. Of course, weather, lineups and umpiring could change things when it’s this close. The Yankees are a dangerous lineup, but with some strikeout upside and Gilbert has been showcasing elite upside of his own this year, when healthy. I currently have him as a top third of the board value on DraftKings and the top value on FanDuel. 

Rockies @ Red Sox

We all know that Kyle Freeland is a much better pitcher on the road (12.5 K-BB%, .318 wOBA against, and six of eight quality starts), but that’s still around average at best and this is one of the smallest park upgrades he can get. Expect hitter friendly conditions in Boston against a red hot offense (153 wRC+ L7 days) that has blasted LHP this year (118 wRC+).

Brayan Bello continues to have issues with LHBs (.337 wOBA, .357 xwOBA) and we’ve already mentioned the difficulty of the park, but it’s not like Colorado has the  type of offense that can really punish him. They haven’t all been pretty with just a 9.8 K-BB% over this span and 6.7% on the year, but Bello did just snap a streak of five straight quality starts. All estimators are above four with just a 3.42 ERA with five of his 34 runs unearned, but I mean, you’re always forced to at least write up a pitcher facing the Rockies no matter what park it’s in.

A couple of matters here. I’m playing the home team to go over their total (5.5 +114) for reasons mentioned above along with strong base running and a terrible bullpen and defense for the Rockies. That said, if you want to punt your DK SP2, Freeland has been competent on the road. I don’t think it’s the most likely outcome, but it’s a non-zero one. Bello is outside my top five, but reasonably priced, much more so on DraftKings. There’s likely justification to exposure to pitching and bats in this game.

Marlins @ Reds

Eury Perez is beginning to show glimpses of something special with six one-hit innings against the Twins, striking out seven last time out, but has reached the 90 pitch mark just once in five starts and is in a tough spot in Cincinnati.

Nearly no-hitting the Padres may have saved Nick Martinez’s rotation spot, but he’s shown little else this year and the Miami offense has been surprisingly good. In fact, not only is Martinez not a pitcher of interest here, but he may show up on the attack list in the afternoon.

Pirates @ Royals

Mitch Keller is becoming the poster boy for killing the Win this year. Despite a 3-10 record, he’s recorded a quality start in 67% of his outings this year and posted a solid 15.4 K-BB% over his last 10 starts (13% on the season). With an above average ground ball rate (46%), he’s limiting barrels (6.7%), despite a 43 HardHit% with non-FIP estimators essentially screaming he’s a league average pitcher (3.93 xFIP & Bot ERA – 4.07 SIERA). That’s a pitcher a lot of contenders wouldn’t mind having in their fourth spot and showing the upside for more recently. Keller has only failed to record sixth inning outs in three of his 18 starts this year, but still exhibits wide platoon splits (LHBs > .330 wOBA & xwOBA, RHBs < .270).

It’s time to give Seth Lugo some credit. He’s struck out 31 of his last 98 batters (11.9 SwStr%) in allowing just three runs over his last 24.1 innings. I don’t think he’ll keep that up and the fact is he’s still rocking a .244 BABIP and 86.7 LOB% that has his 2.65 ERA more than one and a third runs below his best estimator (4.03 xFIP), while pitch modeling absolutely hates him. I don’t think he’s that nearly that bad, but Lugo’s best estimator lines up with Keller’s worst, suggesting he might be the superior arm here. Amazingly, Lugo has very similar splits as Keller, though RHBs are nearly 20 points better against him than Keller.

Welp, this combination didn’t work out too well on Monday as Kansas City covered the total on their own, but I still have this one as a low scoring, even game. That once again means the under (8 100) with a smaller play on the Pirates (+118). We still have two very poor offensive units with two strong defenses, while the Pirates actually show slight edges on defense and in the bullpen.

Keller is cheap enough to consider on DraftKings ($7.4K) more for workload and run prevention because the Royals don’t strike out much. Lugo is a borderline top five arm for me because the Pirates will strike out a bit more. Either pitcher is fine here, but not my favorite.

Cubs @ Twins

Shota Imanaga’s 2.78 ERA is a farce (.197 BABIP, 90.5 LOB%). With an 11.9 K-BB% and 10.5% Barrels/BBE, Imanaga somehow has great pitch modeling, but otherwise, his 4.14 xERA is his only other estimator below four and a half. Both pitch modeling systems love the fastball (68 PitchingBot, 117 Pitching+), despite it’s poor performance (-0.89 RV/100). While it’s true the Twins haven’t hit LHP well (92 wRC+), they have hit well at home (105 wRC+) and Minnesota is one of the sneaky power friendly environments for RHBs (109 park home run factor). Imanaga has struck out just 14 of his last 81 batters with RHBs owning a .310 wOBA, but .351 xwOBA against him this year.

With an 11.4 K-BB% and 11.5% Barrels/BBE, Simeon Woods Richardson best estimator is a 4.40 xERA, which matches his ERA (4.41). Oddly, LHBs have a .372 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have a .274 wOBA, but .344 xwOBA.

Imanaga is cheap enough to have some value on FanDuel, but neither one of these pitchers are on my radar. In fact, SWR may be the worst value on the board. However, I write these two pitchers up because I am interested in the total. Minnesota has a 106 park run factor and both pitchers are averaging estimators in the four and a half range with middling bullpens, while the Cubs have been one of the top offenses in the league. I’m looking for more than nine runs (-105) in this one. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. 

Blue Jays @ White Sox

I’ve been a bit lucky playing Christ Bassitt, catching seven and nine strikeout games in two of his last three starts. He’s generally been underpriced with a  4.32 ERA that’s well above his tight estimator range (3.60 xFIP – 3.86 xERA) with a .341 BABIP, though he continues to have issues with LHBs (.367 wOBA, .346 xwOBA). The White Sox haven’t really been an offense to exploit something like that, as they were the seven strikeout  performance with three hits and one run across six innings. Although, after that marked four straight six or more inning outings, Bassitt hasn’t reached that number in either of his last two starts.

Aaron Civale’s 4.60 ERA matches his 4.58 xERA without another estimator below five. He has the worst pitch modeling on the board with RHBs above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him and LHBs at a .378 wOBA and .350 xwOBA. There’s really nothing redeeming going on here.

The reason I wrote up Civale is because the Blue Jays haven’t hit much on the road (87 wRC+, 7.3 HR/FB) and the Toronto bullpen has been second worst in baseball L30 days, half a run worse than the White Sox. That latter distinction is making the White Sox pop a bit at +148 here. Maybe worth a small shot. None the less, I’m sure Civale will show up on my attack list in the afternoon, while I have Bassitt slightly ahead of Lugo as a borderline top five arm and decent value.

Dodgers @ Brewers

It brings me no pleasure to say that Clayton Kershaw is not a pitcher of interest today and may even appear on the attack board in the afternoon with all estimators more than two-thirds of a run above his 3.43 ERA, poor pitch modeling and RHBs owning a .338 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against him.

Jason Misiorowski got smoked by the Mets, allowing back to back home runs, including a grand slame, while walking three with just two strikeouts. His secondary pitches were pounded and he threw them in key spots because his fastball sat at a season low 98.1 mph. In fact, that’s a full mph lower than he’s sat in any other start. None the less, he’s shown tremendous upside with a 28 K% and 15 SwStr%, but still has some work to do on the command (13 BB%) and has to figure out how to pitch without his best stuff.

Neither of these pitchers is on my DFS wish list on Tuesday. Kershaw’s reasons more obvious, but Misiorowski has been treated gingerly (no more than 86 pitches or 20 batters faced) and is in a tough spot at a high price. However, I don’t see why the Dodgers are favorites here. Even with his faults, I have the rookie half a run better than Kershaw, while Milwaukee still has tremendous defensive and bullpen edges.

Last 30 day bullpen stats...

Nationals @ Cardinals

Jake Irvin is not at all a pitcher of interest and here we have our first pitcher late swap. Why can’t teams confirm pitchers and leave them there? It’s Sonny Gray swapped in for Andre Pallante and I’ll try to cover it on Tuesday.

Sonny Gray has allowed 21 runs over his last 60.2 innings. Twenty of those runs have come in just four of the six starts, which means he’s allowed a total of one in the other six. Feast or famine, Gray’s 3.51 ERA matches his xERA (3.55), Bot ERA (3.61) and dERA (3.52) with additional estimators half a run lower. He doesn’t walk anyone (4.5%), allowing him to generate a 22.3 K-BB% that’s second best of his career, just a bit behind last season, but he’s slightly improved his contact profile overall (8.1% Barrels/BBE, 37.1 HardHit%). The elevated ERA is partially due to the third highest BABIP of his career (.305), some 21 points above his career average, a bit surprising, as he’s become more of a fly ball pitch, who gets a lot of popups.

Gray slides into the backend of my top five with some weather updates. It’s a marginal matchup against a nearly average, contact prone offense in a neutral park with neutral weather. Gray is also a top five value for me on FanDuel, where he’s only $100 less than DK, where I have him a bottom of the top third value.

Guardians @ Astros

Jorge Cantillo faced 15 batters in his first start after pitching out of the pen in the first half of the season (28 IP). He’s not a pitcher of interest. We may see him on the attack list with RHBs owning a .327 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against that I can’t imagine will improve as he stretches out.

Hunter Brown has allowed more than two earned runs in just two starts this season, reaching the seven inning mark four times. He combines an elite 24.7 K-BB% with elite contact management (49.4 GB%, 6.0% Barrels/BBE, 30.6 HardHit%), topping the pitch matchup ratings board by pure pitch run values, though his 3.97 Bot ERA is Brown’s only estimator reaching three, more than a run above all other estimators.

Brown is my number three overall arm, but not one of my favorite values, especially on DraftKings, where he reaches $11K, $500 more than any other pitcher.

Rangers @ Angels

Nathan Eovaldi has essentially been rehabbing at the major league level, working himself up to five batters, 17 innings and 72 pitches last time out. He may still not be ready for a full workload, but 85-90 pitches against a vulnerable, predominantly right-handed lineup (LAA 26 K% vs RHP) is certainly a spot where we can consider using a pitcher with a 22.4 K-BB%, no estimator reaching four (3.89 Bot ERA, 3.48 xERA well above contact neutral estimators), holding RHBs to a .203 wOBA and .284 xwOBA this year. As the Statcast numbers show, the .249 BABIP and 82.3 LOB% will regress, but he’s still been plenty good.

The Nationals blew up Jose Soriano for eight runs in four innings, striking out just four times two starts back. Why do I mention this specifically? It’s because even with that start, Soriano has allowed just 10 runs over his last 31.2 innings with a 23 K-BB% (15.3 SwStr%) and 65.8 GB%. Am I buying it? It’s all about improved command that I’m not sure he can sustain and he’s still allowed a 57.1 HardHit% over this span, but he’s forcing himself to be recognized and he’s facing a below average offense.

Eovaldi is my number four overall in a high upside spot, which could compensate for any workload limitations, though I still think $10K on DraftKings is adequately priced at best. He should be fine and able to reach six innings with efficiency for $600 less on FanDuel. I have Soriano barely outside my top five, but still playable here with his newfound upside and reasonable price tag.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Diamondbacks @ Padres

Both Merrill Kelly (17.6 K-BB%) and Nick Pivetta (21.6 K-BB%) are pitchers with upside. Pitch modeling hates Kelly, who scores higher in the pitch matchup ratings by pure pitch run values, but loves Pivetta. Both have some contact profile issues (Kelly 45.9 HardHit%, Pivetta 11.5% Barrels/BBE), which is partially why both are essentially middle of the board pitchers for me on Tuesday night in tough spots, despite the pitcher friendly park.

Phillies @ Giants

Taijuan Walker is back in the rotation? I’m not even sure we can attack him in this park. We’ll look a bit deeper on Tuesday.

Coming off a complete game three hit effort in Arizona of all places, it’s not like Robbie Ray is missing bats like crazy (27.1 K% with 13.5 SwStr%). Pitch modeling hates him (4.44 Bot ERA, 93 Pitching+), mostly the slider (23.1%, 33 PB, 80 P+), but other estimators range from a 3.01 xERA to a 3.69 xFIP, while he’s gotten his walks under control (9.0%) and the park can help him fend off minor issues in the contact profile (8.4% Barrels/BBE, 44 HardHit%). Ray has also reached seven innings in one-third of his starts.

Ray is the other top pitcher I mentioned way back Logan Gilbert below. I have the two currently interchangeable. Gilber is generally less volatile, but Ray is pitching in a tremendously favorable park. Gilbert, the less expensive of the two is the better value, but both are playable, though Ray’s value at $10.5K on DraftKings is borderline top third of the board.

Braves @ Athletics

Didier Fuentes has a live arm, but was probably rushed to the majors. Pitch modeling believes the stuff is above average, even with the command grades included, but the 27.9 GB% and 53.5 HardHit% have not played well so far, striking out just 10 of 58 batters with a 9.1 SwStr%.

Jeffrey Springs still manages contact very well (35.9 HardHit%), but is still running a nearly league average barrel rate (8.5%) with just 31.4% of his contact on the ground and a mere 10.2 K-BB% doesn’t help matters. With batters from either side of the plate between a .300 and .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him, we’re likely to see him on the attack list on Tuesday afternoon.

We’ll pick up with more detailed daily fantasy notes, most concerning bats on Tuesday afternoon.