Monday 7/7 MLB Thought & Analysis

Rays @ Tigers

Hello Shane Baz, striker outer of 20 of his last 55 batters faced (16.5 SwStr%), throwing 15 innings of three run ball over his last two starts. He introduced a cutter four starts back and is throwing it 28.6% of the time with a 47 PitchingBot grade, but 113 Pitching+. The cutter is not the pitch that has been dominating, but letting his fastball and curveball play up with another different look.

The Tigers really haven’t given ups a clue here. RR lists Keider Montero, who’s last two outings have come in AAA, striking out one of 15 and then seven of 23. A 4.11 Bot ERA and 4.16 xERA are both his closest estimators to a 4.02 ERA and also the only ones below four and a half.

No market on this game without a confirmed Detroit starter.

Rockies @ Red Sox

Nine of the 12 runs Auston Gomber came in the second of his four starts, but four of his six strikeouts came in his first start. A 4.19 BOT ERA is more than a run below his 5.49 ERA, but all other estimators are above that mark. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .385 wOBA and xwOBA against him so far.

Richard Fitts has faced no more than 12 batters in three of his last four starts and no more than 18 in any of his last five. One of those short starts was a beating. His last time out was a suspended game. The third 12 plate appearance outing was his first start back from the IL. He’s gone beyond 44 pitches just once since April 12^th and his 10.8 K-BB% is lower than the 12.6% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. Batters from the right hand side of the plate exceed a .360 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while LHBs have a .272 wOBA, but .346 xwOBA.

Not much of a park upgrade for Gomber, who only has to face the hottest offense in the majors. Both of these pitchers are so cheap (Fitts $6.2K on DK, Gomber $4.5K) that you can punt and pray with the latter. Fitts is likely to go through the lineup twice, precluding more unexpected complications and it is a great matchup. Neither of these guys is likely to win you a GPP though. I’m even tempted to play the over for the F5 (5.5) or Boston total (5.5 also).

Marlins @ Reds

The one time I’ve backed Jansen Junk this year was obviously his worst outing and only one below four innings. He’s only walked two of 151 batters on the year and none in four straight outings. That’s how you post a 20.6 K-BB% with a league average strikeout rate. It’s virtually impossible. However, being around the plate so much has allowed his opponents to make hard contact on 50.9% of batted balls, resulting in a 4.16 xERA, which is Junk’s only estimator above four with only one other above three and a half (3.89 dERA). All others are at least half a run below his 3.62 ERA with pitch modeling that rivals Jacob deGrom. The one issue he has had is LHBs (.334 wOBA, .348 xwOBA), not a problem the Reds can strongly exploit.

Brady Singer was opposing Fitts in that suspended game. He’s struck out 20 of his last 64 batters not with increased slider usage, but increased fastball usage (20.7%). He’s done this with a 9.2 SwStr% and 47.2 HardHit% with four barrels (11.1%), making it quite difficult to buy. He’s still allowed seven runs over these 14 innings, while a 4.27 Bot ERA is his only non-FIP estimator below a 4.36 ERA this season and LHBs have a .329 wOBA, but .370 xwOBA against him. Somehow, just 10 of his 29 barrels have left the park this year (seven of 17 at home).

The sample isn’t so small that you can ignore what Junk has been doing. I have him more than a run ahead of Singer and Miami may even have the better offense. They also have half a run better bullpen estimators L30 days and I don’t believe they should be the dog here. Splitting a unit between F5 and full. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more. I do have difficulty endorsing either pitcher in your DFS lineup in this park though.

Pirates @ Royals

Andrew Heaney last five starts in reverse order:

QS – 1R – 0 BB – 5 K
QS – 3R – 0 BB – 7 K
4 IP – 7 R – 3 BB – 2 K
4 IP – 7 R – 3 BB – 3 K
QA – 0 R – 1 BB – 7 K

Problem starts in Milwaukee and Detroit with the Phillies, at Cubs and Cardinals his quality starts. That’s actually a pretty decent run against that fierce competition. It may be unpredictable, but this is his best matchup, well, maybe all season. Heaney’s K-BB is up to 15.6% over this stretch (up five points from his season rate), which drops his SIERA from 4.52 on the season to 4.22 over the last month. His .366 xwOBA allowed on the season is a league average .315 xwOBA over the last month as well.

Noah Cameron’s 2.56 ERA is supported more by his .206 BABIP and 84.4 LOB% than a 10.8 K-BB% and 40.4 HardHit%. That’s not to say he’s been horrible with estimators widely ranging from a 3.33 xERA to a 4.46 SIERA, but there’s a lot of regression coming. LHBs have a .293 wOBA against him and RHBs .242, but Statcast increases the xwOBA by 40 points in each case, though that’s still a strong showing against RHBs. Lastly, after completing at least six innings in each of his first four major league starts, Cameron hasn’t done so in any of his last five, failing to complete even five innings in each of his last two.

Everybody has a price, but despite the great run prevention spot, the Royals don’t offer enough strikeout upside for Heaney, who’s last 30 day strikeout rate is still just 22%. Cameron does have enough strikeouts an a great matchup, but the workload is more in question, which is why his FD cost is $200 less than on DK. Still, considering the state of these offenses, I have to play the under (8.5) with two potentially league average pitchers here, while also backing the Pirates (+132), who have the better defense and half run better bullpen estimators L30 days with no real deficiencies here.

Blue Jays @ White Sox

Jose Berrios being who he is, followed up seven innings of four hit, shutout ball in Boston with eight strikeouts and one run with 4.1 innings of six run ball at home against the Yankees, striking out just three. Berrios has one run or less quality starts in five of his last seven, but has allowed six runs in each of the two others. He settles in at a league averagish 12.6 K-BB%, but also 11.2% Barrels/BBE allowed on the season. All non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.65 ERA. LHBs have a .307 wOBA against him this year with RHBs at .318, but Statcast drives those numbers up to a .335 and .366 xwOBA.

Sean Burke has allowed just 17 runs (14 earned) over his last 39 innings with a 17.9 K-BB% over this span and his only outing of more than two runs coming in Houston (seven runs). He’s faced the Cardinals, Diamondbacks and traveled to the Dodgers in his last three outings. Problematically against Toronto, RHBs still have a .341 wOBA against him over this stretch (explaining some of his problems in Houston) and .346 wOBA with a .386 xwOBA on the season. He appears to be quite a bit better now than he was over the first couple months of the season though.

This is going to be very contradictory, mostly due to Berrios’s volatility. It’s a great matchup. He’s my number three overall pitcher with some risk, but I do like having some exposure in multi-entry, especially for less than $9K, more so on FanDuel. Burke is not in a high upside spot because the Blue Jay don’t strike out, but considering his performance of late, I certainly think you can punt with him for just $5.5K. I also feel such an erratic pitcher like Berrios is far to big a favorite against a pitcher who has shown vast improvement here (+154).

Dodgers @ Brewers

Yoshi Yama has 10 quality starts in 17 attempts, eight of them with two runs or less. Although his 2.51 ERA dips below his estimator range (2.76 dERA – 3.78 Bot ERA) with a .249 BABIP and 80.1 LOB%, he has been the heart and soul of the Dodger rotation his year. That said, he has shown slight vulnerability to RHBs (.298 wOBA, .310 xwOBA).

Freddy Peralta has allowed 15 runs over his last 39 innings with at least six strikeouts in six of seven starts. In fact, he’s struck out exactly six in four of his last seven. His 20 K-BB% over this span has brought his season rate up to 16.9% with estimators well above his 2.91 ERA (.244 BABIP, 83.5 LOB%), but with only a 4.26 dERA and 4.02 xFIP above four.

I have Yamamoto ranked barely behind Berrios in a tougher matchup, but not a good value as either the most or second most expensive pitcher on the board. He’s been an All Star quality pitcher priced like a strong Cy Young contender. On the other end, we don’t often roster pitchers against the Dodgers, but we sure can bet on them. All the numbers are here and while you can see that I give Yamamoto nearly a two-third run edge over Peralta, the Brewers have had a massively better defense and bullpen.

Bullpen L30 day stats...

Guardians @ Astros

Against a very tough stretch of opponents, Tanner Bibee has gone from an 8.5 K-BB% over his first nine starts against weaker opponents to 19.3% over his last eight with only two starts below 15.4% in that span. Twelve of his 13 walks over that span have come in just four of the eight starts, tying a season high four walks for the third time this year last time out. The improvement has come as Bibee has diversified his pitch mix more, throwing six pitches between 8.1% and 24.4% of the time over this stretch. Fifteen of Bibee’s 24 barrels have left the yard this season, but all non-FIP estimators are below his 4.20 ERA. As you might suspect, just four of his eight barrels have left the park over these last eight starts. Importantly, against Houston, RHBs are within five points of a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against Bibee with LHBs a bit higher.

Colton Gordon’s 4.37 ERA matches his 4.39 FIP, which is also far above additional estimators ranging from a 3.17 Bot ERA to a 3.77 SIERA, excepting a 4.16 dERA. The pitch modeling is only behind deGrom and Junk on this slate. By strikeouts (20.7%, 8.8 SwStr%) and barrels (9.2%), Gordon is nothing special, but he doesn’t walk anybody (3.5%) and limits hard contact overall well (38.9%). RHBs have a .375 wOBA against him, but that drops down to a more manageable .335 xwOBA, which still isn’t great, but the Guardians have been absolutely terrible against LHP.

Neither of these pitchers is a top five arm for more, though Bibee barely misses and I still think he’s one of the better values on this slate. Gordon, despite the better matchup, isn’t really showing enough strikeout upside.

Rangers @ Angels

I may be in a small, very biased group that believes Jacob deGrom may have already done enough for inclusion in the Hall of Fame, but he’s only helping my case with every start. It’s not peak deGrom, but it’s still upper level All-Star quality and the existence of Tarik Skubal may be the only thing keeping him out of the Cy Young conversation. Six straight quality starts and eight of nine plus 14 straight with two runs or less (seven innings or more in five of those starts). A 20.5 K-BB% is the 3^rd LOWEST of his career and worst since 2017. From 2018 to 2024, deGrom posted a 30.5 K-BB% over 686.1 innings. Small workload? Would you put a closer in the Hall with those numbers? The best pitch modeling and topping the pitch matchup ratings with or without that pitch modeling, deGrom’s estimators top out at a 3.34 dERA. As important against the Angels as it is against the Astros, RHBs have just a .213 wOBA and .257 xwOBA against deGrom this season.

Would you believe a pitcher could go half a season with the wrong grip on his pitches without the team noticing it? You’d likely ask if he pitched for the Rockies or Angels, but since the Angels have discovered that problem, Yusei Kikuchi has struck out 38 of 101 batters (16.3 SwStr%) with increased curveball usage (22%) and velocity (0.5 mph). He’s walked just five, which has helped him thrive while still allowing 10.3% Barrels/BBE with a 48.3 HardHit5 over this span. Kikuchi has a 2.38 SIERA and .253 xwOBA allowed over the last month.

You’re probably shocked that deGrom is my top pitcher on Monday, though only a decent value. Kikuchi, who I have nearly aligned with Berrios and Yamamoto as a borderline top five arm, may be the better value, especially on DK, where he is $2K less than on FanDuel and $3.1K less than deGrom.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Diamondbacks @ Padres

I wrote the following before Zac Gallen’s last start against the Giants…

“We’re well beyond concern for Zac Gallen and are in full on panic mode. He’s allowed 43 runs (40 earned) over his last 51.2 innings with just a 7.8 K-BB% that’s half his 15.2% Barrels/BBE with a 50.9 HardHit%. He also sat a season low 92.6 mph in Chicago last time out as the White Sox thrashed him for five runs. LHBs are now within two points of a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him on the season.”

He responded with his second double digit strikeout effort of the season and only third with more than six. The double digit strikeout efforts were also the only times he failed to walk a batter this season. It was just his third quality start in his last 11 outings, all three with one earned run in seven innings (though a total of three unearned runs too). He still has just a 12.4 K-BB% with a terrible contact profile (12.4% Barrels/BBE, 47.4 HardHit%). Gallen’s best estimator is now a 4.22 xFIP with LHBs at a .366 wOBA and .365 xwOBA against him.

It's going to take about a month of double digit strikeout efforts from Gallen to gain back the lost trust. In a pitcher friendly park, it’s still bats or nothing at all here, as the Padres aren’t likely to give Gallen as many strikeout opportunities.  

Phillies @ Giants

Seven straight starts with two runs or less for Cristopher Sanchez, six straight quality starts and at least seven innings in four of his last five. Sanchez has only struck out more than five twice in that seven start span, but they were totals of nine (in Pittsburgh) and 11 (in Houston). The latter a bit surprising, considering RHBs haven’t been terrible against him (.289 wOBA, .295 xwOBA). Still, an 18.4 K-BB%, 57.2 GB% and 6.2% Barrels/BBE are All Star quality stuff with a 3.39 Bot ERA Sanchez’s worst estimator by more than one quarter of a run.

Landon Roupp was just confirmed. He has struck out just one more (17) than he’s walked (16) over his last five starts against the a group that includes the Dodgers, Braves, Red Sox, Diamondbacks and White Sox. In fact, since coming out of the shoot with at least eight strikeouts in three of his first four starts, Roupp has just a 6.6 K-BB% over 13 starts. He continues to manage contact well, posting a 4.16 xERA on the season, matching his xFIP and dERA exactly, all well above his 3.48 ERA (just eight home runs on 21 barrels and nine of 42 runs unearned). San Francisco will help keep those barrels in the park, but batters from either side of the plate still sit between a .312 and .345 wOBA and xwOBA against Roupp on the season.

Tough park and Roupp is cheap enough that he can be considered an SP2. It’s not like the Philadelphia offense has been a juggernaut this season, especially on the road (92 wRC+ with increased strikeout rate – 22%). Under the same conditions, in a much better matchup against the Giants, who are terrible against LHP, Sanchez is my number two arm on the board and potentially one of the best values, at least among the more expensive arms on the board.