Tuesday 7/1 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Yankees @ Blue Jays

While Max Fried is carrying his second best K-BB (19.1%), the ground ball rate is down a bit from the last two seasons (53.1%) and the hard hit rate (38.1%) is his worst since prior to the pandemic. He’s also carrying a career high 6.5% Barrels/BBE. Now, all of these marks are still very good, but they’re not worthy of a 1.92 ERA. All non-FIP estimators are between three and three and a half, while how he’s held 12 of his 19 barrels in the park, pitching so often at Yankee Stadium is another story. A .258 BABIP and 80.4 LOB% are regression worthy.

When I projected positive regression for Kevin Gausman prior to his last start, I wasn’t expecting it all to come at once. Completing eight innings for the third time this season, Gausman shut out the Guardians on two hits with just one walk. His 17.3 K-BB% is not what it was in his San Francisco and early Toronto days, but it’s almost exactly his career rate and three points better than last year. I think he’s found it and while I don’t expect peak Gausman the rest of the way, I think he’ll be fine. A 4.44 dERA is not only his only estimator above a 4.21 ERA, it’s his only one above four (67.3 LOB% is second worst mark since his first season.

I still have Fried about three-quarters of a run ahead of Gausman, but we’re keeping Toronto in their better split, where they are very competitive with the Yankee offense, as they’ve turned Toronto into the top run environment in baseball this year (122 wRC+ at home). The Jays also have a better defense and similar bullpen estimators over the last month. For similar reasons as Monday and with a closer pitching matchup, I’m siding with the home team again at a nice price (+140). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Padres @ Phillies

Coming into his last start having allowed 16 runs (15 earned) over his last 21.2 innings, Nick Pivetta shut out the Nationals through seven innings on three hits. He also struck out 10 batters for the second time this season and at least eight for the third time in six starts, while not walking a batter for only the second time since his first start. His 3.36 ERA matches his SIERA exactly, though a 3.80 xERA is his worst estimator, due to allowing 11.9% Barrels/BBE. The contact profile has always been a problem for Pivetta, but this is the third year in a row his xERA has been below four and it’s nice to see his ERA finally fall in line with his remaining estimators.

Cristopher Sanchez also struck out 11 Astros last time out. Not a season high, his second time in double digits. He only went six innings, breaking a three start streak of seven or more innings. He has five straight quality starts with two runs or less. Sanchez is basically Philadelphia’s version of Max Fried (19.4 K-BB%, 55.4 GB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE 40.4 HardHit%). His 2.79 ERA is also below, but within half a run of estimators except for a 3.48 Bot ERA.

Similar to the game above, I’m going against the team with the starting pitching edge. It’s a smaller edge here, as is the offensive one, but the Padres (+144) have advantages both defensively and in the bullpen, the latter a very large one, as you can see below.

Cardinals @ Pirates

Andre Pallante is all ground balls (63.3%) with few strikeouts (16%), though only his Bot ERA (4.86) and FIP (4.53) exceed his 4.43 ERA.

Paul Skenes allowed more than three runs for only the third time this season and first time in 10 starts last time. In fact, he hadn’t allowed more than two runs in any of his previous nine. It was his third straight tough road start (DET, CHC) in the middle of the afternoon on a Wednesday. The 19.8 K-BB% and 4.9% Barrels/BBE are still fine.

Twins @ Marlins

Joe Ryan has struck out 22 of his last 65 batters with five walks, improving to a 23.5 K-BB%. Even with 12.1% Barrels/BBE, he still has just a 3.33 xERA.

Edward Cabrera walk rate is starting to creep back up again, walking six of his last 44 batters faced, but also striking out 11. A 10.5 BB% and 44 HardHit% push his xERA above four (4.13).

Tigers @ Nationals

Jack Flaherty has allowed 18 runs over his last 13 innings, striking out 15 of 67 batters with 12 walks, five barrels and a 51.3 HardHit%. He did have a 20 SwStr% against the A’s last time out though.

On a board with Jacob deGrom and Paul Skenes, Trevor Williams grades the best fastball by PitchingBot (68), two points ahead of deGrom. The pitch had a -0.77 RV/100 though. LHBs have a .425 wOBA and .374 xwOBA against Williams this year.

Athletics @ Rays

Jeffrey Springs hasn’t shown the upside he has in the past with a career worst 19.2 K% and 10.5 K-BB%. But then again, this is only his second season with more than 45 innings. After a poor start, followed by a solid rebound, Springs has now allowed 24 runs (21 earned) over his last 39 innings with a 12.7 K-BB%. The park in Sacramento doesn’t help and Springs has continued to limit hard contact (36.8%), generating a 3.96 xERA that’s his only estimator below a 4.30 ERA. In fact, it’s his only estimator below four and a half with batters from either side of the plate between a .302 and .327 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Jonathan Aranda and Christopher Morel have had the most success against his pitch mix.

Eight three-hit innings of shutout ball, striking out nine of 27 Royals with one walk is Shane Baz’s best start of the season and only the second time he completed six innings in seven starts. What was different? Baz threw his cutter a season high 40.2% of the time. He also threw it 38.1% against the Tigers in his previous start, allowing five runs, but we’re talking about the difference between a 20 PitchingBot grade and 88 Pitching+ against the Tigers and a 67 and 128 against the Royals. I’m intrigued. Baz’s highest non-FIP estimator is a 4.16 Bot ERA, well below his 4.37 ERA and the cutter’s emergence will improve that too.

As mentioned several times here, Steinbrenner Field hasn’t been the home run haven it was expected to be. It helps RH power more than LH power and is about a neutral run environment overall so far. I have Baz as a borderline top five pitcher on this slate, which is basically one guy and then a grouping of a few others behind him. I do not have him as one of the better values on the board, but wouldn’t mind seeing if the cutter changes that.

Reds @ Red Sox

After not having exceeded four strikeouts in nine straight starts (205 BF), Brady Singer has now struck out 16 of his last 50 Yankees and Cardinals. The first one he did with just a 7.8 SwStr%, but he threw more four-seamers and cutters than expected against the Yankees (32.1% combined) and perhaps fooled them into a 13.6 SwStr% that’s Singer’s best since his second start of the season. What are we buying here? Those pitches are neither well grading or strongly performing for Singer this year. The 1 RV/100 on the cutter is actually his best performing pitch, while -2.1 on the fastball is his worst. I think it may have just been a look the Yankees weren’t expecting. LHBs still have a .330 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against Singer, who’s 4.31 ERA is in line with a 4.27 Bot ERA, but below all other non-FIP estimators. Boston hitters don’t really pop against his pitch mix though.

Richard Fitts has allowed five home runs on as many barrels with a 55.6 HardHit% to 27 Angels faced over his last two starts. Six starts in, his 14.1% Barrels/BBE allowed is higher than his 11.9 K-BB%. As you would imagine, being smoked twice by a predominantly right-handed lineup, RHBs have a .385 wOBA and .405 xwOBA against him this year.

It’s rare for a Cincinnati pitcher to leave GAB and move to a worse run environment, but that’s what they get in Boston and it should be decent hitting weather. After Burns vs Crochet turns in 19 runs on Monday, surely this matchup can get to five in five innings (-132), no? I’m leaning bat first here for DFS, but Fitts is still a well-regarded prospect and does cost just $5.5K on DK. I don’t hate it.

Brewers @ Mets

It looks like Freddy Peralta is missing some bats again. At least six strikeouts in five of his last six outings, brings him up to 25.5% on the season, though his 16.6 K-BB% is still a career low with a career high 9.7% Barrels/BBE. His 2.90 ERA is about a run below estimators ranging from a 3.75 xERA to a 4.16 dERA, while stranding 84.8% of runners with a .250 BABIP. The former is 10 points above his career rate, while the latter is only 18 points below and may be a bit more sustainable with a strong defense behind him. Most Mets rate marginally against his pitch mix.

At 88 innings, Clay Holmes has already passed his previous season high (70), a mark he’s been around for four years straight. The Mets have only held him below 95 pitches in one of his last four starts, but Holmes still hasn’t gone beyond five innings in any of his last three, walking 12 of 65 batters. He keeps the ball on the ground (53.8%), but now with just a 10.9 K-BB% and he’s still allowing 8.3% Barrels/BBE with a 42.1 HardHit%. Estimators ranging from a 3.60 dERA to a 4.19 FIP are well above his 2.97 ERA, stranding 82.8% of runners with a .262 BABIP. Brewers, similarly, rate very marginally against his pitch mix as well.

We have a pair of pitchers likely to heavily regress to near average in a great park (Citi Field and American Family Field are essentially the same negative run environment) in decent weather with neither offense standing out against the opposing pitcher’s arsenal. Right now, on a weak pitching slate, Peralta is my number three arm, but remember how close I said that pack behind the top guy was earlier. It could change and costing more than $9K on either sight, I don’t have Peralta as a particularly great value, while Holmes is walking too many guys with too small an expected workload to have any value.

Angels @ Braves

Coming off a stretch of 18 runs in 20 innings, Tyler Anderson allowed just a single run to the Red Sox last time out, but failed to finish the fifth inning on a season low 82 pitches, though I don’t see any notes about an injury. He hasn’t been good. His 4.41 ERA matches a 4.42 xERA with other estimators further above. LHBs have a .424 wOBA and .385 xwOBA against him with RHBs at .294 and .319. Let’s see if the Braves differ from other teams and stack LHBs against him. Acuna, Olson and Ozuna all pop strongly against Anderson’s arsenal.

Didier Fuentes is a live arm, who has been rushed to the big leagues. The Braves tend to do this. Sometimes it works (Spencer Schwellenbach), but often it doesn’t. He’s allowed 10 runs in 8.1 innings, striking out four of 40 batters, though surprisingly only walking one. With only a quarter of his contact on the ground, he’s allowed four barrels with a 52.9 HardHit%. The pitch modeling has been strong, however. Projections remain around four and a half.

Both these pitchers are cheap. I’ll give them that. I’m more interested in bats here.

Guardians @ Cubs

Some people are excited that Gavin Williams dropped his fastball usage (27.8%) in favor of more cutters (30.2%) over his last six starts. They both grade as average pitches, but the more looks the better in that case, right? The results are just 15 runs (12 earned) in 32.2 innings, but with a mere 2.8 K-BB%. The contact profile has improved at least (6.2% Barrels/BBE, 36.1 HardHit%). RHBs have a .363 wOBA and .340 against Williams this year. That’s down to a .314 wOBA since increasing the cutter usage. PCA has hit cutters well and also happens to have the best run value results against Williams’ arsenal.  

Just eight runs (six earned) over Matthew Boyd’s last 36.1 innings. The 15.2 K-BB% is actually below his season rate (16.6%) with more barrels (10% vs 7.7%) and hard contact (42% vs 38.8%). Those latter season averages include this 36.1 inning patch as well. It’s been the .196 BABIP and 84 LOB% with just three of his of his 10 barrels leaving the park that have done the magic. On the season, Boyd has some regression coming, but still doesn’t have an estimator above four.

Willams only has one estimator (3.73 dERA) below Boyd’s worst estimator. The Cubs have a massive offensive edge, a better defense, a better bullpen and better base running. I have them as larger than -162 favorites. There’s no total or even F5 line on this game because of the crazy weather at Wrigley. Assuming neutral weather, which I guess it never is, Boyd pops as my second overall arm (but remember how close the pack is again and weather will likely change that), though, like Peralta, just a marginal value at $9K or more.

Orioles @ Rangers

Of course, the one time they have all the pitchers in super early, they have to swap a guy. Brandon Young in for Charlie Morton. I’ll update on Tuesday.

Young has struck out 11 of 60 batters with nine walks for a 3.3 K-BB%, but 47.9 GB% and near average contact profile. League average pitch modeling represent his only estimators below four and a half. The 26 year-old posted a 22.1 K-BB% in just 27.1 AAA innings this season after 16.8% in 89 innings at the same level last year.

Having watched Jacob deGrom closely for over a decade in New York, I knew he wasn’t going to settle for 97 and mediocracy when he was capable of more for long. After sitting 96.7 mph in his five starts, he picked it up to 97.5 mph for a stretch of five bigger games next before dropping back to 96.5 mph in his next two. He’s been at 97.8 mph over his last four with his first two starts averaging more than 98 mph in each of his last two outings. What happened? Maybe it was the five walks and four strikeouts after he dropped back down to 96.5 mph. DeGrom doesn’t have the pinpoint command right now, though it’s still excellent. Since increasing the velocity again, he’s struck out 28 of 93 with three walks, allowing four runs over 26 innings.

Jacob deGrom is the top pitcher on the board and I wanted to get this in before stopping for the night, as I watch Monday night’s total go down in flames as the game goes to extras at 3-3 (it’s  6-6 in the 10^th). The game was 3-2 late when the Rangers stole a base and scored on a throw into center field. That’s right, two bases and a run on an overthrow on a stolen base. That’s okay. I’m not mad. I’m not touching the total here either.

Young’s presence changes very little on this slate. He’s not an arm of interest, though one you may consider attacking, while keeping in mind how strong the Baltimore bullpen has been recently.

Astros @ Rockies

While Colton Gordon has conservatively only recorded four sixth inning outs through eight starts, it’s been elite control (2.9 BB%) driving a 19.1 K-BB%. He’s been a bit unfortunate that two-thirds of his barrels have left the park, which causes his 3.98 ERA to run closer to his 4.22 FIP than other estimators around three and a half. A 3.03 Bot ERA and 105 Pitching+ love the fastball and slider (PitchingBot more so). RHBs drop from a .357 wOBA to a .328 xwOBA against him and LHBs from a .291 to .222.

While Chase Dollander has only allowed nine runs (eight earned) over his last 17.2 innings, that’s more about a .232 BABIP, as he’s only struck out seven of 70 batters with five walks. You have to do more than throw hard to miss bats in this league as the rookie is learning, probably without the help of the Rockies. He’s posted just an 8.0 K-BB%, allowing 13.3% Barrels/BBE, though that should reduce with a 39.8 HardHit% and above average ground ball rate. There’s really not much good going on here. Dollander’s best estimator is a 4.44 dERA with batters from either side of the plate reaching at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The first five in the projected Houston lineup (Roster Resource) all are in a positive run value situation against Dollander’s arsenal, though none stand out extremely strongly.

The market keeps popping these high totals at Coors as if the park, itself can generate runs. The problem is that one of the offenses playing there is really bad and Coors would have to increase offense by 50% to get the Rockies to average with a 74 wRC+ at home and 62 against RHP. And the other team is unlikely to score all the runs themselves. Add in a strong defense and bullpen for Houston and I have this game well under 11.5 runs. Obviously, you still want Houston bats for daily fantasy, but I don’t dislike Gordon for $7K on DraftKings.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Royals @ Mariners

Striking out a season high seven four times, Michael Lorenzon has no more than five in any other start and just two quality starts over his last seven, one of the six and three variety. Estimators range from a 4.37 SIERA to a 5.63 dERA with Lorenzon residing near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings board. Generally a reverse split guy, batters from either side of the plate are between a .335 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. Raleigh pops massively against his pitch mix, Crawford, Polanco, Arozarena and Raley strongly too.

Seven shutout innings on two hits against the Guardians three starts back is Emerson Hancock’s only quality start over his last six. His 8.2 K-BB% is at least backed by an average contact profile with just 7.2% Barrels/BBE and a 39.5 HardHit%. Batters have sustained a .354 wOBA against him in Seattle this year. Overall Hancock’s best estimator is a 4.60 xFIP with LHBs within a point of a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him and RHBs just 40 to 50 points lower. Closer to the middle of the pitch matchup ratings board, Hancock has some of the worst pitch modeling on the board (worst Pitching+). Garcia and Witt have strong run values against his arsenal.

A protected environment is important on this slate because the most recent forecast suggests nearly half the slate may be at risk. I don’t hate Hancock as a throwaway SP2 in this spot. He’s very cheap in a great run prevention matchup in a great park, but low strikeout upside. Don’t expect him to win you anything, he just may stop you from losing if the rest of your lineup clicks. No interest in Lorenzon. Marginal interest in Mariner bats.

Giants @ Diamondbacks

Over seven starts, Haydon Birdsong has posted just an 11.3 K-BB% and 46.6 HardHit%. Miami barreled him four times in his last start, while he walked an additional four with one strikeout. LHBs have a .387 wOBA against him in a starting role with RHBs 120 points less. Even considering his time out of the bullpen, Birdsong sits near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings with or without pitch modeling, which his quite terrible. The top half of the projected Arizona lineup all pop strongly in terms of run value against his arsenal.

We’re well beyond concern for Zac Gallen and are in full on panic mode. He’s allowed 43 runs (40 earned) over his last 51.2 innings with just a 7.8 K-BB% that’s half his 15.2% Barrels/BBE with a 50.9 HardHit%. He also sat a season low 92.6 mph in Chicago last time out as the White Sox thrashed him for five runs. LHBs are now within two points of a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him on the season.

I’m guessing my choice to side with a F5 over (4.5 -140) isn’t too difficult to justify here. Large park downgrade for Birdsong and I expect Arizona to do well enough, even missing a few guys. Both bullpens have estimators averaging just above four over the last month as well. Another protected environment, I really like bats here. Perhaps only favoring Houston bats at Coors more.

White Sox @ Dodgers

The White Sox have been conservative with their Rule Five pick, but Shane Smith is starting to fall apart. He’s allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over 6.1 innings with five walks and four strikeouts. His hard hit rate sits at 44.4% on the season, down to an 11.1 K-BB% on the season (5.0% last five starts), despite his velocity actually being up over half a mph over his last five starts. Even with solid season numbers all non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.38 ERA with eight of his 36 runs being unearned. Statcast pushes batters from either side of the plate within a few points of a .300 wOBA against him up to within a few points of a .325 xwOBA.

Yoshi Yama has a single quality start with fewer than three runs over his last five starts with just a 13.6 K-BB%, bringing his season rate under 20% (19.6%). Yamamoto has allowed 9.7% Barrels/BBE with a 47.2 HardHit% over this span. He’s faced the average to below average offenses of his own division in his last three starts, omitting the Diamondbacks. He still sits near the top of the pitch matchup ratings, but that has a lot to do with the White Sox. The pitch modeling is not much better than average. Thought he doesn’t have another estimator reaching three and a half, they all exceed his 2.61 ERA (.254 BABIP, 80.3 LOB%). RHBs have a .305 wOBA and .318 xwOBA against him this year.

This is one of the rare open environments without rain concern tonight and I suspect players who aren’t on deGrom will be on Yamamoto. While he certainly has the ability to pop a big one, I think he may be overvalued here. With some weather adjustments, he’s only my fifth best arm on FanDuel and worse than that on DraftKings and maybe even a poor value at $10.8K. I like Dodger bats a lot here, if you can afford them. Probably requires a cheap SP2 on DraftKings. I’m even considering a play on their team total.