Monday 6/30 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Padres @ Phillies

Matt Waldron makes his first start of the year off an oblique injury. He throws a knuckleball, but only around 35% of the time. Knuckleballs break things, which means pitch modeling and estimators. Pitch modeling has always liked his other pitches except for his fastball. Waldron had a 14.9 K-BB% last year and 15% in rehab starts this season. He projects around four and a half.

Zack Wheeler has posted quality starts in 75% of his attempts. Half of them with at least two seventh inning outs and with more than two runs in none. His 2.55 ERA matches his Bot ERA and within a quarter run of all estimators. Wheeler dominates the pitch matchup ratings when pitch modeling is included and he has solved his issues with LHBs from last year completely. In fact, RHBs now have a higher wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, though they are still below .265.

Cardinals @ Pirates

Erick Fedde tied a season high seven runs allowed against the Cubs. How a guy with poor control (10.2 BB%), who can’t miss bats (15.2 K%, 6.9 SwStr%) or barrels (9% with 43.3 HardHit%) has a league average 4.11 ERA, I don’t really understand, but a 4.37 Bot ERA is his only estimator below five. Middle of the board in pitch matchup ratings, but second from the bottom when you include pitch modeling. While batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 xwOBA against him this year, RHBs have just a .289 wOBA, which is where his overperformance comes from.

Andrew Heaney also tied a season high seven runs allowed in Milwaukee last time out. The bigger problem is that he set that season high in his previous start in Detroit. Since striking out a season high nine Angels (revenge game) without a walk in late April, Heaney has posted a 3.7 K-BB% over 55 innings with 10.2% Barrels/BBE and a 47.1 HardHit%. His 4.48 ERA is within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators except for a 3.74 Bot ERA. However, that’s contradicted by a 92 Pitching+ (worst on the board), the fastball a major point of contention (45.8%, 60 PitchingBot, 93 Pitching+).

I have both pitchers above four and a half, but Heaney about one-third of a run better. The Cardinals have that great defense, but can’t hit LHP (92 wRC+). Pittsburgh just pummeled the Mets’ staff for 25 runs this weekend, have a decent defense and slightly better bullpen estimators L30 days. At home, I believe they should be slight favorites, but they are not (+106). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Yankees @ Blue Jays

After having struck out at least eight in four of five starts, Carlos Rodon hasn’t reached that mark again over his last four starts (23.1 K%), over which he’s allowed 12 runs (11 earned) in 22 innings with eight barrels (13.3%) and 43.3 HardHit%. This does include six shutout innings in Cincinnati in his last start without a barrel and 33.3 HardHit%. The ups and downs of a season. This is Rodon’s best season in Yankee uniform (21.2 K-BB%), though pitch modeling actually liked the stuff more last year. Rodon’s 4.08 Bot ERA is his only estimator above three and a half. He’s even held RHBs below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA this year.

Max Scherzer’s return from the IL in Cleveland wasn’t much to brag about (5 IP – 3 R – 3 BB – 4 K), but he did increase his velocity to 93.2 mph, more than half a mph above where he sat in Texas last year. Interesting to see he hasn’t thrown his slider even 10% in either of the two starts this year, increasing his curveball and even cutter usage into the mid-teens. Hard to say it’s done much good with a sub-7 SwStr% in both starts. Projections in the upper three-low fours may even be a bit generous…if he can even stay healthy.

Even projecting Scherzer much worse, I’m still coming up Jays (+130) here. They have a competitive lineup with he Yankees with guys 2024 utility guys like Clement mashing this year. They also have the better defense with similar pen estimators over the last 30 days. Rodon is really the only Yankee edge.

From a daily fantasy standpoint, I have Rodon just outside my top five arms (just saw FanDuel is including the first two games and Wheeler would be my number three with marginal value). While I like the price on the Blue Jays, there’s always a non-zero chance that Scherzer is washed or not entirely healthy. Yankee bats are fine here.  

Reds @ Reds Sox

This is the matchup of the day. I liked everything I saw out of Chase Burns in his major league debut against the Yankees, as did pitch modeling (2.67 Bot ERA, 121 Pitching+) with all three of his pitches grading from above average to elite and that includes command. He may be a bit behind Misiorowski in pure stuff, but he already has the command part down. Burns struck out eight of 21 without a walk. His one barrel left the park and he did allow hard contact on seven of 13 batted balls, which projected a 4.72 xERA on the start, but his dERA (4.23) was the only other estimator reaching three. Projections have improved after that first start to right around four for the Reds’ top prospect.

In 11 starts since Garrett Crochet became frustrated after walking four Mariners and allowing four runs…

72.1 IP – 56 H – 17 H – 8 HR – 16 BB – 91 K – 283 BF (26.5 K-BB%, 7.4% Barrels/BBE, 39.2 HardHit%)

Crochet has gone at least 6.2 innings in six of those starts.

Crochet is far and away the top pitcher on the board and maybe the top value too. Five in the projected Cincinnati lineup (Roster Resource) are above a 27.5 K% vs LHP. What concerns me about Burns, already costing $8K or more, is not the matchup or the park. It’s the workload. Just 81 pitches in his first start. I think he’s fine for the upside on DK on a small slate though.

Last 30 day bullpen starts...

Athletics @ Rays

Jacob Lopez has allowed two runs (one earned) over his last 23 innings, including home starts against the Orioles and Astros. Going back one start further, to where he surrendered three home runs and five runs in Sacramento, Lopez has struck out 38 of his last 112 batters (14.9S wStr%) with just eight walks. He doesn’t throw hard (90.7 mph) and the models don’t appreciate anything except his slider (31.4%, 60 PB, 119 P+), but this appears to be legitimate and not burdened by a troublesome contact profile (no barrels in four starts, 33.3 HardHit% on the season).

I wrote about Drew Rasmussen’s season high 92 pitches before his last start, hoping Tampa Bay was finally ready to let him go, but they compensated by pulling him after just 62 pitches last time out. Any quality starts are purely efficiency with just a 6.2 BB%, 50 GB% and 5.7% Barrels/BBE. The .242 BABIP and 84 LOB% are holding his 2.45 ERA a run below estimators mostly in the mid-threes, aside from superior pitch modeling. He’s top of the pitch matchup ratings board with or without pitch modeling.

As I should have mentioned before, there seems to be some rain risk in most unprotected spots on Monday, Tampa Bay among them. The park has played much more neutrally than expected. We keep waiting for the run (and power) environment to blow up. The Rays haven’t punished LHP, but have remained hot and been great at home. I have trouble endorsing Lopez in this matchup. Rasmussen’s workload kills his value and it’s not a great matchup either.

Orioles @ Rangers

Not saying he’s going to save the pitching staff, but Trevor Rogers has dropped his walk rate to 4.7% and driven his velocity back up to 93.7 mph (nearly two mph above 2024) in three starts. He’s only struck out 13 of 64 with a 10 SwStr% and 53.2 HardHit%. All problems aren’t solved, but this trade may still be redeemable, something O’s fans wouldn’t have believed a few months ago. Pitching Bot (3.14 ERA) is more on board than Pitching+ (99).

Patrick Corbin has allowed more than three runs for the first and second time this season in his last two starts, despite striking out 10 of 46 batters with two walks. He has allowed two home runs on five barrels, but sits on a league average contact profile for the season (8.9% Barrels/BBE, 37.7 HardHit%). The cutter (19.5%, 67 PB, 117 P+) continues to be a career saver. Corbin’s 11.3 K-BB% is in line with three of his last four seasons with the much improved contact profile, generating estimators all within one-third of a run of his 4.27 ERA. It’s not great, but it’s not much worse than league average.

I think both of these pitchers are solid lower priced values against a pair of offense below a 75 wRC+ against LHP this year. Each exceeds a 24 K% with a sub-8.0 HR/FB against southpaws this year. Both teams also have bullpens with top five estimators L30 days, so I’m also siding with the under (8.5 -102) here.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Royals @ Mariners

Michael Wacha struck out a season high nine of 27 Rays last time out. In fact, it was a season high by 50%. His previous high was six Ks in a start. His 20.4 K-BB% is double his season rate, though he has been above 11.5% in four straight starts now. I can’t tell you what has changed, expect maybe facing some higher strikeout offenses. I don’t know if he keeps that up, but he can improve on his 19.2 K%, while the 6.2 BB% and 32.4 HardHit% help project a 3.67 xERA already. Pitch modeling has always loved the changeup and I’m always surprised he doesn’t have much of a reverse split. RHBs are 20 points lower than LHBs this year (wOBA & xwOBA). The Mariners are more prone to strikeouts (24.7%) at home.

Fourteen of George Kirby’s 36 strikeouts came in a single start on the road against the Angels. He has not struck out more than five in any of his other six starts and no more than three in each of his last two. Kirby also hasn’t gone beyond five innings in five of his seven starts with no more than 23 batters faced in a start this season. Without that 14 strikeout game, Kirby would be in trouble with 9.3% Barrels/BBE and a 43 HardHit%. He didn’t get a single whiff on 33 sliders last time out.

Kirby is out of rhythm right now and despite the great run environment against a poor offense, the Royals don’t strike out enough (18% vs RHP) for Kirby to have much DFS value today. On the other hand, I do think Wacha is a decent value play in this spot for $8.6K or less.

Giants @ Diamondbacks

Five straight quality starts with two runs or less for Logan Webb. He’s posting a career high 22.4 K-BB% with just a slightly smaller ground ball rate than usual (53.5%), but also a career best 5.2% Barrels/BBE and 34.6 HardHit%. Webb’s worst estimator is a 3.03 xERA.

Ryne Nelson has only gone beyond five innings in two of his seven starts, but he did just strike out a season high seven of 19 White Sox and has allowed just three runs (two earned) over his last 15.2 innings. While a 3.53 Bot ERA is his only estimator below a 3.71 ERA this year, they only stretch as high as a 4.10 xERA. RHBs do have a .314 wOBA, but .359 xwOBA against Nelson, giving him a significant reverse split (more than 60 points by wOBA or xwOBA), but it all depends on his high iVB fastball (61.3%, 61 PB, 114 P+) in any given start. Nelson does have a favorable matchup against a poor fastball hitting Giants offense (-0.76 wFA/C is worst in MLB).

I like this spot more than the Giants’ numbers against RHP suggest (11.4 K-BB%, 100 wRC+) and that’s due to their difficulties against fastballs. Devers is the only projected Giant with even a positive run value matchup here and that’s barely. Even missing a few pieces, I think Arizona has the better lineup, even missing a few pieces, and both have bullpens with estimators in the 15^th- 20^th range over the last month. As much as I love Webb (my number two overall arm) I believe the D’Backs have some value (+132).