Friday 6/27 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Mets @ Pirates

David Peterson allowed a season high five runs to the Phillies last time out. With a 71.9% strand rate over his last four starts, he’s brought his season rate below 80% and has an ERA and estimators in the mid-threes over this span. You rarely see a pitcher that high up on the pitch matchup ratings board towards the bottom of the page with poor pitch modeling, but both Peterson and Merrill Kelly fit the bill on Friday.

A 4.11 SIERA is Mitch Keller’s only estimator above his 4.02 ERA. It’s surprising, but few walks (6.1%) and barrels (5.8% Barrels/BBE) will do that.

Rays @ Orioles

Ryan Pepiot has struck out 35 of his last 94 batters with a 15.3 SwStr%. Is this the breakout we’ve been waiting for, as he’s paired this with a 30.6 HardHit%? He’s done this with mostly increased fastball usage (52.5%) and all of his pitch grades, except his slider via Pitching+ (118), have declined over this span. That said, he still has elite pitch modeling. He’s second on the pitch matchup ratings board if you include pitch modeling. I think the fastball may be sharper than it’s being given credit for with 19” iVB.

Tomoyuki Sugano has struck out more than four just twice and still relies on an 83.1 LOB% to keep his ERA below four. His best estimator is a 4.48 Bot ERA, while LHBs jump from a .302 wOBA to a .369 xwOBA against him.

The heat wave is over. We should experience normal June conditions in Baltimore on Friday night. The park has played much more hitter friendly than they probably anticipated with the dimensional changes in left field. I don’t think that’s going to be a long term thing, though it’s probably a slighty hitter friendly park again. At this point I’d look to attack Sugano, expecting some regression eventually, while I have Pepiot as a borderline top five arm on Friday night and a solid value.

Athletics @ Yankees

Mitch Spence has struck out just 13 of 80 batters over four starts, but has also walked only three and kept his contact profile in line (6.3% Barrels/BBE, 39.7 HardHit%, 45.2 GB%). Spence’s pitch modeling has been excellent over this span too (3.03 Bot ERA, 113 Pitching+).

Nice feature on Fangraphs about Will Warren this week suggesting his pitches don’t behave like you’d expect. He’s still a bit chaotic from start to start, but has allowed just five runs over his last 18 innings with a 25 K-BB%, though 11 of his 21 strikeouts over this span came in one start against the Angels. The 9.5 BB% and 48.2 HardHit% are a bit sketchy, but with a 29.5 K%, he both gets himself knocked out of games earlier than you’d like too often and doesn’t have a single estimator within a run of his 4.66 ERA with a .328 BABIP and 65.2 LOB%.

Daily fantasy wise, you can’t do much with Spence, although he is less than $6K. He might get you few points in an SP2 spot, but not if you’re looking for upside. In that case, Warren is a guy I’m more likely to roster. While there are several A’s who rate well against his pitch mix (Wilson, Kurtz and Wynns), they also strike out a lot. Volatility isn't necessarily bad in GPPs. In fact, sometimes we're looking for it. That said, at the same time I think this line is too high (+184). It’s not like the A’s have any edges (except base running), but the two teams do have similarly poor bullpen estimators over the last 30 days and if the A’s can keep it close, they can trot out one of the best closers in the game. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Padres @ Reds

The only thing that’s been consistent with Dylan Cease this year is the swings and misses. While he tied a season low with four strikeouts last time out, he did so with 19 whiffs, but they were almost entirely on the fastball, meaning the slider he was throwing with two strikes was generally put into play. Like Warren, his 4.43 ERA is far above estimators running only as high as a 3.61 Bot ERA with a .327 BABIP and 67.7 LOB%, yet he also has some issues with walks (8.8%, though better than some previous seasons) and contact (9.7% Barrels/BBE). LHBs also have a .326 wOBA and .349 xwOBA against him.

Nick Martinez has made a pair of relief appearances since his last start eight days ago Friday. He’s not been missing bats (17.8 K%, 8.5 SwStr%), but not walking anybody either (5.4%). His pitch modeling is pretty average across the board with a 3.85 Bot ERA and 4.80 dERA his only estimators more than one-fifth of a run removed from his 4.40 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are within a .318 and .354 wOBA and xwOBA against Martinez this year.

You may not like the park or the volatility of Cease, but I’m embracing it against this lineup. He tops my board and may be my favorite value too. Martinez is a pitcher I’d rather attack. Jackson Merrill rates best against his pitch mix.

Cardinals @ Guardians

Sonny Gray has a pair of 10 strikeout games in his last seven starts, but no more than five in any of the other five. Sixteen of the 17 runs he’s allowed over this span  have come in just three starts, his worst starts coming in Milwaukee and Philadelphia. So we continue with the volatility trend. The odd thing about Gray is that his problems have gone from LHBs last year to RHBs this year (.346 wOBA, .339 xwOBA). He’s throwing more curveballs at LHBs this year and fewer sweepers. The cutters and sinkers he's been throwing RHBs have a much higher wOBA than xwOBA though. All this is pretty good news against an almost entirely LH Cleveland lineup. Gray’s pitch modeling over this seven game stretch has improvement immensely (3.15 Bot ERA, 107 Pitching+).

Luis L. Ortiz tied a season high with 10 strikeouts in Sacramento last time out and I believe I had the under on his prop. It was only his second time with more than five strikeouts in six starts because he had a 13.3 BB% over his previous five. Another volatile pitcher with a 4.30 ERA above most estimators with the exception being a 4.54 xERA with his 11.6 BB%, 9.5% Barrels/BBE and 48 HardHit%. LHBs have a .334 wOBA, but .371 xwOBA against him.

This seems to be a spot that sets up well for Sonny Gray. Cleveland is a negative run environment where he’ll face almost entirely LHBs and the few RHBs he’ll face have to deal with park power suppression. He’s a top three arm for me, almost interchangeable with my number two. I like his value on this slate, but more so on FanDuel. Also, considering a pair of great defenses, along with Cleveland’s below average offense, I’m going to side with the Under here as well (8.5 -112).

Blue Jays @ Red Sox

Oh…look…more volatility. Jose Berrios invented the damn term in baseball. He’s also coming off his best start of the season (7.2 innings of two hit, shutout baseball with five strikeouts). Maybe it’s something to feel good about until you realize it was the White Sox and in his two previous starts, he allowed six runs after striking out just one batter. The 9.2 BB% and 10% Barrels/BBE are problematic. The 20.7 K% and 38.9 HardHit% are near average and he’s already generated 16 infield flies. Batters from either side of the plate are within four points of a .310 wOBA against Berrios, but also between a .336 and .356 xwOBA.

Brayan Bello is coming off of a pair of strong starts, the first at home against the Yankees and the second in San Francisco (13 IP – 50 BF – 3 R (1 ER) – 2 HR – 4 BB – 14 K). Still…plenty volatile. In fact, these two have almost the same xERA (Berrios 4.60, Bello 4.69), SIERA (4.34, 4.44), xFIP (4.26, 4.20) and FIP (4.27, 4.42) and name. Bello has a significant split issue though (LHBs .356 wOBA, .359 xwOBA).

So these two pitchers are nearly the same guy, both in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the league, but I still like Berrios here with the upside making him my overall fourth best arm with the potential to be one of the best values on the board. The reason? Six projected Red Sox exceed a 23.6 K% vs RHP this year with just one below 20%. Alternatively, the Blue Jays don’t strike out. Though, unfortunately, they’re not very dangerous from the left-hand side either and while most are above average, none really stand out against Bello’s particular arsenal and tendencies.

Twins @ Tigers

Matt Festa is the one unconfirmed pitcher on this slate. He allowed eight runs behind an opener last time out, his second eight run outing in seven overall. He’s only faced more than 19 batters twice and completed five innings once. The league average 11.9 K% comes with 10.8% Barrels/BBE and 44.1 HardHit%. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Sawyer Gipson-Long has worked behind an opener in three straight. After facing 46 batters over his last three outings, he faced 25 in Tampa Bay last time out with as many home runs allowed (three) as strikeouts. The contact profile needs to even out (12.7% Barrels/BBE, 45.5 HardHit%), but he’s only walked two and has strong pitch modeling, especially the 3.08 Bot ERA. The Bot loves the sinker (69), cutter (80) and slider (69), the three of his five pitches he throws less than 20% of the time.

Workload would be my issue with SGL, though he’s very cheap on DraftKings. I think you have to attack Festa at this point. The top six in the projected Detroit lineup (Roster Resource) pop pretty strongly against what he throws.

Phillies @ Braves

I’ve been pretty consistent in not buying or even understanding the Mick Abel hype. A pitcher with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and double digit walk rates at every stop of his professional career will give you some doubts. However, the walks haven’t been what’s hurt him. In fact, three of his four came in one start against the Cubs, but nine of his 18 strikeouts also came in his first start with no more than three in any of his next four, along with 12.3% Barrels/BBE and a 56.2 HardHit%. Abel’s 3.47 ERA matches some optimistic pitch modeling (3.52 xERA, 109 Pitching+), but is more than two-thirds of a run below any other estimator (.242 BABIP, 100 LOB%). LHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

As suspected, Bryce Elder’s 12 strikeout performance in San Francisco was an outlier, to be kind. He’s struck out just six of 48 Marlins and Rockies since. There’s discrepancies in the pitch modeling, mainly with Pitching+ seeing the slider as nearly average (97) and PItchingBot thinking it’s a terrible pitch (36). A 19.6 K% and 46.3 HardHit% should create some problems, hence the 5.01 xERA not much higher than his 4.77 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Focus on all bats except right-handed Braves. Acuna and Schwarber are the obvious standouts against opposing pitcher arsenals.

Giants @ White Sox

Landon Roupp struck out seven batters for only the second time in 11 starts against the Red Sox last time out, but did post his fifth quality start in seven tries, fourth without allowing a run. Unfortunately, that’s based on just one of his 10 barrels (9.3%) leaving the park over that span. San Francisco will help you do that and Dodger Stadium is where that one barrel went out. He’s actually managed contact quite well overall (33.5%), producing a 3.86 ERA that’s inline with his ERA (3.67) and FIP (3.73), well below contact neutral estimators with just an 11.4 K-BB% (6.5% over his last seven starts). RHBs exceed a .330 wOBA (45 points higher than LHBs), but LHBs exceed a .330 xwOBA (24 points higher than RHBs).

Aaron Civale has been shelled for seven runs in 12 innings since the trade, walking five of the 55 batters he’s faced with six strikeouts and All of his estimators exceed four and a half and batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Roupp is a nice value arm due mostly to the matchup. Benintendi pops a bit against his pitch mix though. Flores and Koss are the only projected Giants not in a positive run value situation against Civale’s arsenal this year.

Mariners @ Rangers

Logan Gilbert struck out 10 of 19 Red Sox, walking one, straight off the IL for more than a month and half. Then he allowed three home runs and barrels, but that as in rough pitching weather at Wrigley, while still striking out six without a walk. Gilbert doesn’t have a start below a 16 SwStr% this year. His worst estimators are a 3.22 Bot ERA and 3.11 dERA that match his 3.12 ERA. He has held RHBs below a .220 wOBA and xwOBA.

Nathan Eovaldi returns from exactly a month long IL stay with a tricep injury and was pitching some of the best ball of his career, despite a velocity drop of over a mph this year. With an average contact profile, a 23.7 K-BB% is a career high. His only estimators above three are a 3.82 Bot ERA and 3.40 xERA. He’s allowed a league average 8.4% Barrels/BBE, despite a 50.9 GB% and sub-40 HardHit%, which seems hard to do. Eovaldi struck out four of 15 AAA batters in each of his two rehab starts, ending in three innings.

We should expect some type of workload limitation on Eovaldi here. I’m pretty excited about what Gilbert has been showing us this year and firmly believe he’d be in Cy Young contention without the injury. He’s my number two overall (a bit ahead of Gray right now) and a very similar solid value. Despite how well Eovaldi has pitched, I give Gilbert a half run advantage, especially in the former’s first start back from the IL with limited rehab. That and Seattle’s substantial offense edge makes the Mariners attractive at -108.

Cubs @ Astros

Cade Horton has struck out just 17.6% of batters, but still generates a competent 11.9 K-BB% with great control (5.7 BB%). It’s a necessity with a questionable contact profile (10.6% Barrels/BBE, 43.2 HardHit%). Those barrels, despite a 49.2 GB%. It’s that ground ball and walk rate that keeps estimators within half a run of his 3.73 ERA. RHBs have a .310 wOBA, but .353 xwOBA against Horton, a problem against Houston. Jeremy Pena pops strongly against his fastball led arsenal.

I touted Brandon Walter as a great DFS value last time out and he was popped for seven runs in Sacramento. Oddly enough, I talked myself off his strikeout prop because I didn’t want too much exposure to a pitcher in that park and thought there was a chance he could get pulled early if things go bad. When you’re playing a DFS pitcher, you’ll take lesser odds for upside. When you’re playing a strikeout prop, you need him to beat it whatever the percentage of the time it is. So Walter still goes six innings and struck out six of 30 batters with one walk, saving it from being a complete disaster. He’s walked just two batters, while striking out 99 with 52.9% of his contact on the ground through four starts. As I mentioned last time out, Walter is a  former top 100 prospect, who fell out of favor due to injuries. His 3.80 ERA matches his 3.80 xERA (45.7 HardHit%) and a 3.91 Bot ERA is his only estimator higher. He doesn’t have a particularly strong pitch matchup rating against the Cubs with PCA really popping against his pitch mix and also Tucker plus Suzuki, though I wonder if  a lot of that is because of the damage in Sacramento in a small sample.

Maybe I’m righting two mistakes here. Although a significant park upgrade from his last start, I’m not going to recommend Walter, who costs more than $8.5K now in another tough spot. His number of batters faced has increased with each start (18 – 24 – 27 – 30). The Astros have shown they’re not going to panic and pull him if he gets in a little bit of trouble. His 12 SwStr% supports his 25.3 K% and while the Cubs don’t strike out a lot, but Swanson and PCA both over 30% against RHPs this year and he should get three shots at both with Suzuki at 23.6% too.

Dodgers @ Royals

We'll pick it up here on Friday. 

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Rockies @ Brewers

Nationals @ Angels

Marlins @ Diamondbacks