Tuesday 6/24 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rangers @ Orioles

Rangers starting pitcher = (shrug emoji)

I’ve seen bullpen game, Dane Dunning and Jacob Latz mentioned. Maybe a combination of all.

Check that. When I just did another twitter search, it seems that Dunning is already in the game on Monday night. I had a 50/50 shot and guessed wrong. 

In five starts back in the rotation, Charlie Morton has a 23 K-BB% and 33.8 HardHit% with just three barrels.

Athletics @ Tigers

Luis Severino in just six road starts: .223 wOBA against, 7.1 K-BB% (2.4 points lower than at home), 4.44 xFIP (0.06 points higher). His road BABIP is 100 points lower and his strand rate 30 points higher. The Tigers can exploit his LHB issues (.336 wOBA, .362 xwOBA this year).

Since striking out 20 of 51 batters, while allowing four hits over 16 innings in two great starts, Tarik Skubal has struck out six in three straight. That 22.5 K% comes with a  13.6 SwStr%, but there were two high strikeout matchups in there where he didn’t put them away. It’s a weird, tiny sample size nit, but his velocity has been down half a mph since that complete game two-hitter where he gassed Cleveland on the last pitch of the game at 102 mph or something.

Considering Severino’s lack of splits, the caliber of offense he’s facing in likely hitter friendly conditions, I’m on the Detroit team total (4.5 -113 0.5u). Even with Clarke, the A’s are likely fielding a below average defense, while the bullpen is one of the worst in the league too with less of a chance of seeing Miller in a game started by Skubal.

Blue Jays @ Guardians

Eric Lauer has had just one inning lasting fewer than three innings, so it’s tough to chalk up his strong start to pitching out of the bullpen. It’s not as good as his 2.29 ERA (.212 BABIP, 88.4 LOB%), but an 18.1 K-BB% would be a career high, helping mitigate a career worst 47.2 HardHit%. Heck, Lauer’s 3.14 xERA is his best estimator. The one thing that is not on board with what Lauer is doing is the pitch modeling, but by pure pitch run values, he has the third best pitch matchup rating on the day.

Logan Allen’s hard hit rate is under 30% (29.5%), but he’s still allowing 9.5% Barrels/BBE, which is a number that’s larger than his 6.8 K-BB%. All estimators are more than one-third of a run above Allen’s 4.21 ERA with batters from either side of the plate holding at least a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Apart from comparable bullpens and base running, Toronto has every edge here. Largely so in terms of offense and perhaps starting pitching as well. I’m splitting a unit between F5 (-118) and full game (-108). Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Braves @ Mets

Above, you’ll notice Spencer Strider’s in game velocity drop in his last outing against these same Mets. Regardless, the Mets couldn’t touch him and he’s now struck out 21 of his last 46 batters with two walks and it looks like he’s back up to at least 96 mph over his last two starts, but as you see, he isn’t holding it. Considering the first of those two starts were against the Rockies and that he’s still a mph down from 2023 and two mph down from 2022…well, I don’t know what I’m trying to say here, but it’s something to watch.

Frankie Montas projects around four and a half, which is similar to last season, though he was better after being traded to the Brewers. The problem, or potential problem, is that he got lit up in rehab. He struck out just 12 of 97 batters and four of 31 in A ball. It’s fine over the first couple of starts, but he allowed 13 runs over his last 6.2 innings. Those projections may not be aggressive enough or the rehab starts may mean nothing, like spring training.

This is a tough one. I’m not sure about either of these pitchers, but still have Strider as a top five arm and a solid value on another slate that has been infested with LHPs.

Yankees @ Reds

Since a stretch of 20 innings in which Carlos Rodon allowed a single run, striking out 26 of 74 batters, he’s allowed 12 runs (11 earned) over his last 16 innings, striking out 16 of 70, but with five home runs on eight barrels (17.8%) and a 46.7 HardHit%. All non-FIP estimators except for a 4.06 Bot ERA are still within one-third of a run of his 3.10 ERA. He’s held batters from either side of the plate below a .290 wOBA and xwOBA this year.

According to Fangraphs, Chase Burns is the top prospect in the Cincinnati system and some believe the top pitching prospect in the league. He throws gas with a nasty slider, but questionable command. His AAA walk rate is a respectable 8.7% over 66 innings to go with a disgusting 36.8 K%. Most major projection systems have him projected around four with a couple of major outliers (OOPSY just above three and a half, THE BAT above four and a half).

Hey kid, welcome to the league. It’s near 90 degrees in a band box and here’s the Yankees. Good luck. Rodon’s upside in a great spot outside environmental factors still has him projecting as my second best arm and a solid value, in line with Strider on DraftKings, but better on FanDuel, where he doesn’t reach $10K.

Rays @ Royals

I’ve given up trying to figure out what Taj Bradley is. Strikeouts and walks are all over the place with a sub-standard 11 K-BB% overall, but the contact profile is solid (49.1 GB%, 38.4 HardHit%) and most non-FIP estimators are more than two-thirds of a run below his 4.95 ERA, except that he has some of the worst pitch modeling on the board. LHBs have a .339 wOBA and .331 xwOBA this year that’s about 20 points better than RHBs.

After getting beat up by the Yankees when he left too many pitches out over the place, Kris Bubic tied a season low 91.8 mph average velocity against Texas and got off to another rough start, but finished just two outs shy of a quality start, while striking out six of 26 batters. This is a guy who pitched out of the bullpen last year. Just 30.1 innings after TJS. You start to wonder as he’s hit 85 innings already. That said, a 3.72 Bot ERA is his worst estimator with RHBs below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA.

Based on full season results while doubling the weight of the last month, Bubic would be my number three arm, barely behind Rodon and of similar value on FanDuel, but a better value on DraftKings. Do we have concerns about him? Do we have concerns about the Tampa Bay offense that has just a 93 wRC+ against LHP, but has a 164 wRC+ over the last week? Bradley is an easy pass against a contact prone offense in a positive run environment with temperatures above 80.

Mariners @ Twins

We finally get to attack Luis Castillo on the road with LHBs! They have a .328 wOBA and .345 xwOBA against him this year. And they actually have a lower wOBA against him on the road (.317), but you look at the teams he has faced on the road (Angels, Astros, White Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays and Reds) and which LHBs scare you? Maybe the crazy thing is that RHBs have a .369 wOBA against him on the road this year and they have a .341 xwOBA against him overall.

Since striking out 10 of 29 batters over eight one run innings in Seattle, Chris Paddack has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in 15 innings with a 4.3 K-BB%. Paddack is actually better against LHBs, but his .297 wOBA against them jumps up to a .330 xwOBA. Paddack’s excellent pitch modeling is far removed from his 4.48 ERA, which all other estimators are within a quarter run of. Pitch modeling loves the changeup (72 PitchingBot, 130 Pitching+), despite it’s neutral run value (-0.2 RV/100).

Target Field won’t be hit with the heat wave that many other parts of the country are experiencing this week, but it’s still a decent hitting park at normal June temperatures. With two starting pitchers into the fours and two above average offenses, I’m looking for runs here, splitting a unit between F5 (4.5 -104) and full game (8.5 -105). An added bonus, the Minnesota bullpen has dropped off to middle of the league over the last month with the Mariners bottom third of the league.

Diamondbacks @ White Sox

In and out of the rotation, Ryne Nelson has struck out just 17 of his last 115 batters with just a 7.0 SwStr% and 11.4% Barrels/BBE with just a 35.2 HardHit%.

Bullpen game for the White Sox. Roster Resource is listing Tyler Alexander to start it, but does it even matter? 

Pirates @ Brewers

After three straight starts without a walk, Andrew Heaney walked more Tigers (three) than he struck out (two) last time out. A career worst 9.9 K-BB% and 93 Pitching+, though Pitching Bot has him line with his career rate (3.69 Bot ERA). Heaney’s 3.94 ERA matches his 3.90 dERA with all other estimators around four and a half. LHBs have a .379 wOBA and .415 xwOBA against him, while RHBs go from a .288 wOBA to a .320 xwOBA. I’m not buying a marginal contact profile with a single digit K-BB% has actually improved him.

Freddy Peralta has fewer than six strikeouts in seven of 16 starts and more than that only four times with a high of nine. While his 15.4 K-BB% is a career low, a 35.5 HardHit% sits almost exactly at his career rate (35.3%) with a career worst 9.8% Barrels/BBE. Estimators hover around four, a run above his 2.76 ERA (.238 BABIP, 85.6 LOB%).

Peralta is just outside my top five. I guess he’s okay in a great spot, even better if the roof is closed (92 park run factor), but the upside just doesn’t seem to be there this year.

Last 30 day bullpen stats...

Cubs @ Cardinals

Excellent command allows Jameson Taillon to maintain a 14.5 K-BB% with a sub-20% strikeout rate. He’s allowing his second highest rate of barrels ever (10.3%), but with a near league average 39.1 HardHit%. Another guy pitch modeling loves (3.35 Bot ERA), though all other estimators are above four. He’s strangely having problems with RHBs this year (.358 wOBA, .339 xwOBA).

Mike McGreevy is not a strongly regarded prospect (35+ FV grade Fangraphs), but has posted a 21.3 K-BB% at AAA this year thanks to elite command (4.9 BB%), his top graded skill, better than any of his pitch grades except his slider. He’s struck out 15 of 65 major league batters with two walks, but a 44.7 HardHit% and just 9.3 SwStr%. He hasn’t had even 40% of his contact on the ground in any of his thre outings, though projection systems have him around four. Though only one (OOPSY) projects him above four.

Likely hitting weather in St Louis again. Neither of these pitchers would be on my radar.

Phillies @ Astros

Eight straight quality starts for Ranger Suarez, only one with three runs and only two without seventh inning outs. The 16.6 K-BB% is exactly what he produced last year with a higher ground ball rate (54%), fewer barrels (3.1%) and less hard contact (29%). Of course his estimators are higher than a 2.20 ERA (81.3 LOB%), but his 2.58 xERA is not much higher and they only run as high as a 3.53 Bot ERA. RHBs have a .274 wOBA and .268 xwOBA against Suarez this year.

Framber Valdez struggled in Sacramento, but not how you think with 72% of his contact on the ground without a barrel. He walked five of 26 A’s with just three strikeouts. He’s walked just five of his previous 81 batters with 32 strikeouts. Framber generates more ground balls than Ranger (59.1%) with a slightly better 17.1 K-BB%, but 46.2 HardHit% with 7.2% Barrels/BBE. His estimators run as high as a 3.65 xERA.

To start with, I have Saurez too expensive for the upside here, while Valdez is my fifth best arm, but a marginal value. I don’t have him much higher than Peralta or lower than Strider. It’s not a great spot. However, I still like the as moderate favorites here (-142) because they have every other edge and significantly so on defense and in the bullpen.

Dodgers @ Rockies

No Dodger starter named yet. Roster Resource is listing Justin Wrobleski, who’s non-FIP estimators are all at least a run below his 5.18 ERA with half his contact on the ground.

The good news is that German Marquez has allowed 13 runs (11 earned) over his last 33.2 innings with a solid 14.2 K-BB%. The bad news is that he’s sustained 11.8% Barrels/BBE with a 48.2 HardHit% over this span and faces the Dodgers at Coors on Tuesday night. Batters from either side of the plate remain above a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. 

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Red Sox @ Angels

Ten straight starts with at least six innings and just one with more than two runs for Garrett Crochet. His 26.4 K-BB% over that span has his season rate up to 23.9% with a better than average contact profile. His worst estimator is a 3.02 Bot ERA.

A single digit 9.5 K-BB% and nearly as high 8.9% Barrels/BBE, while Tyler Anderson has gone eight straight starts without a quality start and four or more runs in five of his last seven. A 4.50 xERA is his only estimator below a 4.56 ERA. LHBs have a .395 wOBA and .420 xwOBA against him.

Crochet is my run away top pitcher and value, especially on FanDuel. The Angels have a ton of strikeouts in their lineup for him and for that matter, so might the Red Sox if you only want to pay $6.4K for your SP2.

Nationals @ Padres

Trevor Williams has completed six innings just twice and all estimators are below his 5.54 ERA (.336 BABIP, 62.8 LOB%), but LHBs have a .419 wOBA and .363 xwOBA against him. The 3.13 Bot ERA is insane. Pitching Bot gives his fastball the same grade as Tarik Skubal’s (70), despite it’s performance (-0.69 RV/100).

This is the first time I’ve covered Ryan Bergert, who the Fangraphs gives a 45 Future Value grade to. Everything seems to be average. That includes his 14.8 K-BB% in 36 AAA innings this year, after a 12.9 K-BB% in 98 AA innings last year. He’s posted a 10.8 K-BB% in 24 innings for the Padres with just a 32.8 HardHit%. A 4.07 Bot ERA is his best non-FIP estimator. I don’t love the profile with only one third of his contact on the ground.

Marlins @ Giants

Cal Quantrill was on his way to another solid outing when he yanked a hamstring to end the fourth inning, but the Marlins still sent him back out for the fifth. A HBP and a double occurred before the Marlins realized how dumb they were. Both runs scored after he left the game. Quantrill still has allowed just 17 runs (16 earned) over his last 36.2 IP with a 15.3 K-BB%, which would be a career high mark for him over a full season. He pitched so poorly early in the season that estimators are still above four and a half with 11.9% Barrels/BBE, while RHBs have a .452 wOBA and .407 xwOBA against him this year.

Justin Verlander struck out six of 22 Guardians in his return from exactly a month on the IL. While the 11.3% Barrels/BBE aren’t as big of a deal in home starts, the 10.1 K-BB% might be. Verlander doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half either with batters from either side of the plate above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

I’d strongly consider siding with the Marlins (+160) if I had any confidence they were sending a healthy pitcher out there. The Giants really don’t have large edges in this game. Yet, if they were willing to leave him in the game immediately after he limped off the field…?