Monday 6/23 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Rangers @ Orioles

Patrick Corbin allowed a season high four runs to the Royals last time out. While it took him 13 starts to allow more than three, he’s only completed six innings three times and still has a 3.91 ERA that matches a 3.99 Bot ERA (100 Pitching+) with remaining estimators ranging from a 4.32 xFIP to a 4.59 FIP, numbers the Rangers certainly would have signed up for from him. RHBs still have a .331 wOBA and .346 xwOBA against Corbin this year.

Trevor Rogers did not have as much success in his second start of the season in Tampa Bay as he did first time out in Boston, but his velocity was up nearly a mph and his pitch modeling was still better than average.

Braves @ Mets

Despite allowing two home runs with a 62.5 HardHit% which was second worst this season to a start against the Dodgers, Spencer Schwellenbach also struck out eight of 26 Mets, his fourth start in five with at least that many (28.7 K-BB%). He’s also gone at least seven innings in five of his last seven starts. All estimators are within half a run of his 3.26 ERA and don’t run any higher than a 3.62 xERA. LHBs have a .296 wOBA, but .353 xwOBA against SS this year.

After five shutout innings against the Dodgers to start his season, Paul Blackburn has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) over his last eight innings, striking out just five of 41 batters. The 6.7 K-BB% is not ideal, but he has been a bit unfortunate with a .362 BABIP and 53.4 LOB%, while allowing hard contact on just 27.1% of batted balls. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .350 wOBA against Blackburn, but no higher than a .310 xwOBA. He projects a 3.49 xERA that lines up with a 3.56 Bot ERA and 108 Pitching+, but with all contact neutral estimators above four and a half. He does have the worst pitch run value matchup on the board against the Braves, but moves to fourth best when you include pitch modeling. The cutter, sinker and slider, responsible for nearly three-quarters of his pitches this year, all grade very well. By pure small sample run values, Ronald Acuna grades out as a monster against Blackburn with Ozuna and Baldwin rating very strongly too.

Schwellenbach was my top pitcher on the board in this matchup last week, so you’d think I’d also have him atop my board with a better park transition and that is true. He’s my top arm and one of my favorite values on the board, but with temperatures around 90 at first pitch, I’m not sure it’s still much of a park upgrade. The thing is, most pitchers will suffer the same conditions on Monday. I’m also fine with punting your SP2 with Blackburn, who appears to be pitching better than his surface results, though that wouldn’t stop me from adding Braves where I’m not using him.

Yankees @ Reds

Allan Winans is the guy you turn to when your first eight or nine options are unavailable to pitch. Projections are around four and a quarter, but that’s only for a few relief innings. He has a 14.3 K-BB% in 40 major league innings, 32.1 of them in 2023, but also allowed eight home runs. He has allowed just one in 50 AAA innings with a 22.9 K-BB%, a mark he’s never come close to since debuting at AAA in 2018.

Sixty percent of Nick Lodolo’s starts have been quality starts and only one with more than two runs. He increased his strikeout rate once lowering his sinker usage in late April, but is back up to 29.4% over his last two starts, 33% last time out with just four strikeouts. It does grade as his best pitch and his only above average one by Pitching+. You can see why he’d want to generate more ground contact in this park, but it does very little for him in terms of daily fantasy value. Lodolo’s 3.71 ERA is below, but within one-third of a run of all estimators except a 3.51 dERA and while he has more than a 50 point reverse split this year, batters from both sides of the plate have a .327 xwOBA against him.

Most power friendly park in the league for Judge and friends, also with temperatures in the upper 80s. You want bats here. Chisholm actually rates better than Judge from a pitch run value perspective, but that’s split neutral. Goldschmidt rates well here too.

Mariners @ Twins

Before Bryan Woo’s last start, I wrote, but conveniently failed to post:

“Bryan Woo has completed six innings in every start this year. That’s where the good news ends. He’s allowed multiple home runs in three straight starts (though did give up one in Arizona last time out that wasn’t even a barrel). Woo is running just a 17.1 K% and 8.1 SwStr% over his last five starts. He did start so strong that all of his estimators except a 2.86 Bot ERA are within one-third of a run of his 3.39 ERA, but those estimators and ERA are around the four mark over the last month.”

Yeah, it’s a good thing I didn’t because Woo struck out six of 24 Red Sox, allowing a single hit (33.3 HardHit%) over seven shutout innings. Woo’s 16.3 SwStr% in that start was his highest mark since April and only his second time in double digits in over a month. His pitch modeling has remained strong during his slump and maybe that should have tipped us off. Is that it? Is he fixed? The one thing we don’t have to worry about is the home/road split, as his K-BB has been three points higher on the road (19.3%) this year. Woo has the second best pitch matchup rating with or without pitch modeling. Byron Buxton is the only projected Twin who even breaks even against Woo’s arsenal.

While Bailey Ober struck out five of 25 Reds without a walk last time out, I’m not sure he’s fixed. I know it’s not about velocity with Ober, but he remains down a mph from last year and it’s not only impacted his results negatively, but also his pitch modeling, which is now slightly subpar. Ober has allowed 16 runs over his last 17.1 innings with seven home runs on 10 barrels (16.9%). Ober is having a tough time living upstairs with decreased stuff. He has the fourth worst pitch matchup rating on the board, but when you consider one of the other guys below him was just a place holder and isn’t even pitching and another had just two starts and that RHBs are within a point of a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against Ober this year…

Only mid-70s in Minnesota may be our coolest spot outside California. I’m not sure people realize that Target Field is a sneaky positive run environment with a higher RH home run factor than Philadelphia. Ober still looks strong enough to use for less than $8K in my projections, but a lot of that might be outdated info that no longer applies to this version of him. I prefer attacking him in this state with RHBs and also Crawford and Raleigh, who rate strongly against his arsenal. Woo is my number four arm (close enough that he can either be passed or move up with changing conditions), but appears adequately priced for $9.6K against a fairly contact prone offense. I also have slight interest in the Mariners going over their team total (4.5 +110).

Diamondbacks @ White Sox

HardHit% on the season, projecting his best estimator in a 3.91 xERA with a 15 K-BB%. While he doesn’t have a traditional estimator within a run and a half of his 5.93 ERA (.355 BABIP, 61.7 LOB%), the pitch modeling has been awful (see below), giving him a bottom of the board pitch matchup rating with or without pitch modeling included. While batters from either side of the plate are within a few points of a .375 wOBA against ERod, Statcast drops that down to within two points of a .320 xwOBA from either side. However, there’s another caveat here and that’s 31 of his 64 strikeouts coming in just three of his 12 starts. He’s struck out just 19 of his last 110 batters.

The White Sox have been extremely cautious with rule five pick Shane Smith, only allowing him a season high 91 pitches and exactly six innings four times. He is coming off his worst start of the season against the Cardinals though with a season high five earned runs and more walks (three) than strikeouts (two). Amazingly, nearly a quarter (eight of 23) of his runs have been unearned. Or maybe not if you see what the Chicago defense has done, though this projected lineup is about average. The unearned runs and just one-third of his barrels leaving the yard are the main reasons his 2.85 ERA is so far below estimators (3.53 FIP/dERA – 4.31 xFIP).

Upper 80s here too with a decent wind, though I can’t tell in what direction. That will likely dictate whether ERod is the fifth best pitcher I currently have him ranked as or worse or even moves ahead of Woo in an otherwise ideal matchup against an offense with a 19.6 K-BB% against LHP. Smith doesn’t pitch deep enough into starts to be worth more than $8K against Arizona under these conditions.

Pirates @ Brewers

It looked like a bullpen game from Pittsburgh and Roster Resource listed Carmen Mlodzinski, despite throwing 35 pitches on Saturday, so I used him as a place holder. He may or may not pitch. Braxton Ashcraft has appeared only in relief seven times for the Pirates, but with a high of 50 pitches after all 10 of his AAA appearances in a starting role with a 16.9 K-BB%. The 25 year-old is the third rated prospect in the organization by Fangraphs with a 50 Future Value grade and a nasty slider. The Fangraphs scouting report suggested a future fourth starter. Who knows how much we’ll get out of him here, though two to four innings would be my broad guess.

Chad Patrick did not allow more than three runs in any of his first 13 major league starts, but has now done so in two straight with nine runs over his last 10 innings with a 50% hard hit rate and three of his four barrels (13.3%) leaving the yard against the Braves and Cubs. Despite elevating many of his pitches (cutters, fastballs and even sinkers), Patrick has managed to allow just 6.9% Barrels/BBE with a 27.2 GB% and 41.6 HardHit%, a combination that looks like it could blow up in a hurry, though he does have a competent 14.8 K-BB%. Patrick’s 3.50 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators, some barely above four and then there’s his board worst 5.11 Bot ERA that has discrepancies with a 101 Pitching+. The main source of contention is that cutter (37 PB, 114 P+). LHBs (.325 wOBA, .339 xwOBA) have hit him slightly better than RHBs. Nick Gonzales has smashed cutters in a small sample, but Andrew McCutchen is the only other projected Pirate who grades strongly against Patrick’s arsenal.

Patrick is volatile, but has the potential to be one of the best values on the board in a great spot. Temperatures in the mid-80s in Milwaukee as well and this changes if the roof is open, but I did see a slight chance of rain here, which could keep the roof closed, where Milwaukee is a negative run environment.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Cubs @ Cardinals

Ben Brown is a very volatile pitcher, who is very easy to sum up. You’re going to get a fastball (57.6%) or a curveball (38.1%) almost every time. He will miss a lot of bats (26.3 K%, 13.1 SwStr%), but when he doesn’t miss, they go hard and far (10.6% Barrels/BBE, 46.1 HardHit%). He’s has one of the worst (if not the worst) pitch run value matchup on the board because the Cardinals generally murder fastballs. He has not faced his divisional rivals yet this year, but Arenado, Donovan and Burleson match up strongest against Brown’s pitch mix. LHBs have a .377 wOBA and .391 xwOBA against Brown that’s more than 70 points above RHBs.

Was it a strong rebound game or just the White Sox Matthew Liberatore faced in his last start. It was his first quality start in four tries, but he still struck out just four of 23 batters and now just 16.6% over his last seven starts. A 3% walk rate over that span helps keep some of his estimators relatively healthy over that span, but when you add in the 16 barrels (11.9%) and 45.5 HardHit%, not so much. RHBs have a .314 wOBA and .325 xwOBA against Liberatore with LHBs below .250.

Ninety degrees in St Louis, which can become a hitter friendly park when it heats up. I’m not buying on Liberatore for more than $8K, but Brown has so much upside that he’s essentially my second favorite arm on the board and sort of the 2A to Patrick’s 2B. They’re two of my favorite values behind Scwhellenbach with the realization that either could get smoked too. It’s just not a strong pitching board with most pitchers in awful pitching conditions.

Red Sox @ Angels

Walker Buehler, coming off his best start of the season against a hot Rays offense, was the pitcher I backed against Woo last week and it was a disaster. He allowed eight runs over 3.1 innings in Seattle, walking four with just two strikeouts. His velocity remained up and has averaged at least 95 mph in each of his last four starts (94.0 season), but he keeps changing his pitch mix in an effort to find any combination that works. It was 31.2% sliders in Seattle, not nearly a season high, but more than any other pitch in that game after leading with 26.8% sinkers against the Rays and 49.3% sliders the start before in New York. In all, he’s thrown six pitches between 9.2% and 22.5% of the time and his 5.95 ERA is more than a run and a quarter above all non-FIP estimators with two-thirds of his barrels leaving the yard, but only as low as a 4.21 xFIP. Buehler has an 81 point actual split with LHBs exactly at a .400 wOBA, but just an 18 point xwOBA split with LHBs at .354.

As we all expected, Jack Koch struck out a season high eight of 20 Yankees with just a 10 SwStr%, his fifth time in double digits this season. I watched one particular bat in which he induced Aaron Judge to swing and miss three times. His velocity has been up a mph in his last two starts, but it’s still been 55% sinkers, which shouldn’t lead to strikeouts and generally doesn’t. It does lead to 50.4% ground balls, but even with that, he’s allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE with a 49.2 HardHit% and just a 6.5 K-BB%. While all non-FIP estimators fall below Koch’s 5.38 ERA with 15 of 24 barrels leaving the yard, a 4.21 dERA is his only one below four and a half. Adding in pitch modeling gives Jack Koch the worst pitch matchup rating on the board, though only Abraham Toro stands out against him via run values. The Red Sox really don’t do much against sinkers.

While the weather is expected to be mild and in the 60s, this is a power friendly park. Considering Buehler has been better against RHBs and is in a decent spot, I don’t hate him at a moderate price. Koch, well, I think you just saw his ceiling against the Yankees and I don’t expect him to repeat it this season (put him down for 10 Ks after that bold statement).