Wednesday 6/25 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Diamondbacks @ White Sox

Zac Gallen has allowed 38 runs (35 earned) over his last 46.1 innings with an 8.2 K-BB%, 14% Barrels/BBE and 52 HardHit%. I believe we’re past concerned.

Sean Burke’s 4.50 ERA is below all estimators except a 4.39 Bot ERA.

Pirates @ Brewers

The two runs Paul Skenes allowed to Detroit last time out were his most in eight starts. He has a 23.4 K-BB% with just six barrels over his last seven.

Jason Misiorowski has struck out 11 of 38 batters, walking five, four of them in his first start. He’s also allowed six hard hit batted balls and just one barrel with a 13.2 SwStr%.

Skenes’s biggest flaw is that he pitches for the Pirates, who can’t score him runs. If you value pitcher wins (you’re probably not reading this) then that’s his fault. If you buy into what Misiorowski has done through two starts, along with his minor league dominance, he’s the play as a home dog here. If you’re still looking at projections which are almost all above four, then it’s a more borderline situation. One thing that would be very difficult to do in most Skenes starts is back the Pittsburgh offense as a favorite. 

Red Sox @ Angels

Richard Fitts in somebody else’s article, not this one.

Since someone brilliantly discovered that Yusei Kikuchi was mis-gripping his pitches, he’s allowed seven runs (five earned) over 20 innings with eight barrels (16.7%), but a 28 K-BB% and 14.7 SwStr% (9.9% season). He’s leaned more into curveballs (22.4%), a pitch he had thrown a lot of with the Mariners and Blue Jays, but Houston shelved (9.5%) after acquiring him.

Nationals @ Padres

MacKenzie Gore is coming off his absolute worst start of the season with a season high in runs (six) and walks (four) surrendered to the Dodgers. Certainly not a cause for alarm. He still holds a 25.2 K-BB%.

With 16 runs (15 earned) over his last 21.2 innings, including five home runs on nine barrels (13.4%), people are wondering whether Nick Pivetta is turning into, well, Nick Pivetta again. Positive notes include a 15.1 K-BB% (less than his season rate, but still above average) with a 37.3 HardHit% over this span. RHBs are up to a .310 wOBA and .335 xwOBA against him though.

Rangers @ Orioles

Now sitting 97.1 mph on the year, Jacob deGrom was at a season high 98.3 mph against the Pirates last time out and has averaged less than 97.5 mph in just three of his last eight starts. He’s not as sharp as he was at his peak, but still has a 20.3 K-BB% with his worst estimators a 3.31 SIERA.

This looks like it will be Brandon Young, who walked eight of the 42 major league batters he’s faced this year, all in April. It appears as if he’s missed some time with injury, but has an impressive 22.1 K-BB% over 33.1 AAA innings this year. Projections range mostly in the low fours.

Athletics @ Tigers

Jacob Lopez has some swing and miss stuff. He’s struck out 40 of his last 125 batters with a 14.8 SwStr%. He’s been mixing up his pitch mitch a lot on a per game basis, leading with the changeup (32.6%) last time out after leading with the slider (38.8%) and fastball (47.3%) in his two previous starts. There may be some potential here.

Jack Flaherty has been shelled for 15 runs over his last seven innings, allowing four home runs on just three barrels (12.5%), but a 58.3 HardHit% and 0.0 K-BB%. He doesn’t appear to really be doing anything much differently and the velocity has been fine. (Shrug)

Blue Jays @ Guardians

Max Scherzer’s season consists of 11 batters on March 29^th, of which he struck out one. He’s been quoted as saying his “stuff is fine”, but he won’t know about his thumb until he gets out there. Encouraging. It’s been a long time since he’s been injury free over a long stretch. Projections range from upper threes to the low-to-mid fours.

Gavin Williams has increased his cutter usage to 31.4% and reduced his fastball usage to 27.1% , while throwing more curveballs too (24.7%) over his last four starts. The results have been just seven runs (five earned) over 22.2 innings with a 31.7 HardHit% and just two barrels, but also a reduction in his K-BB (8.6%). It’s fueled by a .197 BABIP and 81.9 LOB%.

Braves @ Mets

Didier Fuentes struck out just three of the 22 Marlins he faced in his major league debut after the 20 year-old pitched just 4.2 innings at AA. The Braves are not afraid to rush a guy along. He’s also just thrown 21.2 AA innings (17.7 K-BB%). Fuentes is a strongly rated prospect (#3 in system with a 50 FV grade via Fangraphs) with an elite fastball, but that appears to be the only part of his game that’s currently above average. Projections range the span between four and five runs per nine.

Already at a career high 83 innings, Clay Holmes walked a season high six Braves last time out. He walked four Astros in his first start, but no more than three since. With 53.6% of his contact on the ground, he’s been able to keep his barrel rate to 8% with a 42.4 HardHit%. The 12.1 K-BB% is just 8.4% over his last eight starts. I wonder if they eventually move him to the pen with starters getting healthy and some need in the bullpen, knowing that he’s not going to throw 170 innings.

Unfortunately, it’s past 10 pm ET and FanDuel hasn’t posted their daily fantasy slate yet. DraftKings sportsbook hasn’t posted the F5 lines yet either, which is even more frustrating. However, we’ll  only be focusing on DraftKings DFS pricing here. Fuentes is just $5.7K and even if he has been rushed, that’s a price that’s worth a shot for a guy with upside in GPPs. In games with fewer entries, I’d probably disregard both pitchers and concentrate on bats on another hot and humid night at Citi Field.

Yankees @ Reds

Not only has Max Fried posted 12 quality starts of his last 14 attempts, but he’s sitting on a 19.3 K-BB% that’s the second highest of his career (19.9% in 2023), generating ground balls at his career rate (53.8%  this year, 54.3% career), which helps mask a small decline in a still solid contact profile (6.9% Barrels/BBE is his highest rate ever and 39.4 HardHit% his worst in any season with more than 100 BBE. Fried’s 3.42 xERA and Bot ERA are easily his worst estimators with an 80.5 LOB% and five unearned runs driving his 2.05 ERA.

Brady Singer struck out seven of 24 Cardinals last time out, his first time in 10 starts with more than four. And he did it with a 7.8 SwStr%. Nothing to see here. Only two whiffs on the slider. Somehow, he hasn’t allowed more than three runs in seven starts. Partly because he’s only gone five innings four times and also a 79.5 LOB% with just three of his 14 barrels (12.2%) leaving the yard. Has the baseball been told that he now pitches in Cincinnati, not Kansas City anymore? A 4.30 Bot ERA is his only non-FIP estimators below four and a half, while LHBs have a .319 wOBA, but .374 xwOBA against him.

Hitting weather in a hitting park. We finally have FanDuel prices, which doesn’t mean anything for the last game, but may for Fried, who is my overall number two and probably third favorite value, depending what you think about a volatile young pitcher later. It’s all Yankees for daily fantasy lineups in this one. Fried’s large K-BB% and ground ball rate should help him navigate this park against a poor lineup.

Bullpen L30 day stats...

Rays @ Royals

Drew Rasmussen’s four quality starts over his last seven are a testament to his efficiency because he’s been below 80 pitches in three of them and just reached 90 pitches for the first time last time out. Sure, the .245 BABIP and 83.1 LOB% aren’t sustainable, but a 16.1 K-BB%, 51.2 GB% with just 5.6% Barrels/BBE is something every team would sign up for in a mid-rotation starter. Rasmussen’s worst estimator is a 3.61 SIERA and you see him near the top of our pitch matchup ratings below, behind only  a guy not on the main daily fantasy slate, who’s made just two major league starts.

Michael Wacha, changeup, yada yada yada. We know, but his 79.9 LOB% is also five points above his career rate. He has been at impressive 79% over the last four years though, which would be one of the highest marks in history for a starting pitcher with more than 500 innings. Just so you know how unsustainable it really is, Jacob deGrom, Sandy Koufax and Clayton Kershaw are the only pitchers of the expansion era with career strand rates above 79% with none reaching 80%. Excellent contact manager (32.2 HardHit%) with great control (6.4 BB%). That generates a 3.75 xERA, Wacha’s best estimator.

Weather projected be very hitter friendly on Wednesday per Dr. Google. That and Rasmussen’s workload mostly kills pitching for me here. I say mostly because even though the Rays have been pummeling the ball, Wacha is just $7.2K on DraftKings. There are still cheaper pitchers I’d choose over him as my SP2 first.

Also, considering Rasmussen’s worst estimator is better than Wacha’s best, along with Tampa Bay’s large bullpen edge and near 30 point wRC+ v RHP advantage, I have them in the moderate favorite range, a bit higher than -126. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Mariners @ Twins

George Kirby hasn’t been consistently sharp after an injury delayed the start of his season until late May. Fourteen of his 33 strikeouts through six starts came in a single effort against the Angels in his fourth start. His 6.1 BB% is actually two points a career worst with 11.2% Barrels/BBE and a 46.1 HardHit% easily career worsts too. Despite strong pitch modeling which matches his contact neutral estimators (mostly because of that one start against he Angels), it’s a surprise to find Kirby near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings below. LHBs have a .454 wOBA and .391 xwOBA against him so far.

Joe Ryan has marginally allowed 16 runs (15 earned) over his last 33.1 innings with a 14.1 K-BB% that’s less than two-thirds his season rate (22.7%). He’s actually reduced his hard contact rate to 35.3% over this span, but with his fly ball nature, he’s actually been fortunate that just three of nine barrels (10.6%) have left the park. The good news here is that he has hit a 20 K-BB% again in each of his last two starts, so although there’s only one quality start there, perhaps he’s nearing the end of this slump. His worst estimator is still just a 3.67 xFIP.

I’m concerned enough in somewhat difficult matchups at elevated prices (more so for Ryan) that neither of these pitchers are on my radar at this point in time for this particular slate.

Cubs @ Cardinals

Matt Boyd has allowed eight runs (six earned) over his last 30.1 innings, despite lowering his K-BB (15.5% vs 16.8% on the season) with a worse contact profile (11.1% Barrels/BBE, 42 HardHit%). It’s a .205 BABIP, 81.7 LOB% and just one-third of his barrels leaving the park that are doing most the heavy lifting. This is not to suggest he’s been bad, but estimators are around four over this span, about a quarter run higher than his season estimators.

Erick Fedde has an ERA and FIP below three over his last four starts because he’s allowed just one barrel with a 31.4 HardHit%, but just a 6.5 K-BB% (5.4% on the season). I don’t buy the contact smothering continuing. A 4.37 Bot ERA is his only estimator below four and a half this year with just six of his 20 barrels leaving the yard. Batters from either side of the plate have an xwOBA over 50 points higher than their actual wOBA.

It's another hot evening in St Louis and considering the pair of quality offenses we have here, I’m on the F5 over (4.5 -125) and bats over arms in general for daily fantasy.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Phillies @ Astros

Five innings against the Mets last time out is a season low, as he walked three of 21 batters, averaging nearly five pitchers per batter faced. He still struck out eight. Wheeler’s 26.7 K-BB% and 32.7 HardHit% are everything you want in an Ace, except for the ground balls. His 2.61 ERA is within one-quarter of a run of all estimators, while RHBs are below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year and LHBs are below .250. 

If we disregard the fact that two-thirds of Colton Gordon’s barrels have left the yard through seven starts and focus on his 18.8 K-BB% and 3.03 Bot ERA, we realize that he’s been quite good with only his FIP above four. He’s smothered LHBs, but while RHBs have a .388 wOBA against him, that drops to a more reasonable .336 xwOBA.

Wheeler is behind only Fried and my top pitcher yet to come, but at a price that I don’t know affords him any added value. I don’t hate Gordon for $6.5K on DraftKings. Also, even though I have Wheeler a full run better than Gordon with comparable offenses, Houston’s massive defensive and bullpen gaps have this line (+138) too high for me.

Dodgers @ Rockies

Yoshi Yama has allowed 12 runs over his last 20.2 innings with a 10.6 K-BB% and 49.2 HardHit% (9.5% Barrels/BBE). A 3.79 Bot ERA is still his highest estimator on the season by nearly half a run, but RHBs have a .318 wOBA and .323 xwOBA against him.

The Dodgers will probably Chase Dollander from this game fairly early. Although his non-FIP estimators are much lower than his 6.19 ERA with only his xERA additionally above five with just a 64.8 HardHit%, this is an awful spot with batters from either side of the plate between a .345 and .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him.

Dollander is the pitcher you obviously want to attack on this slate, but everybody knows it. Yamamoto is still my fourth best pitcher overall, but similar to Wheeler, not a great value for the price, even at $8.8K on DraftKings. He’s been a bit vulnerable recently and (sigh), yeah, I think this price is too high (+265). Look at the bullpen numbers above too.

Marlins @ Giants

Despite still running a 10.2 BB%, Edward Cabrera’s 14.6 K-BB% is a new career high, while he’s improved slightly on the contact profile from last year with a 42.9 HardHit% and the same 8.6% Barrels/BBE. It’s not great, but his worst estimator is just a 4.15 xERA. Cabrera is firmly in league average territory. Maybe even better. He’s increased his sinker usage this year and pitch modeling believes it’s his best pitch (60 PitchingBot, 126 Pitching+), leading to career best pitch modeling marks overall (see below).

Logan Webb has gone at least seven innings in half of his 16 starts. He’s running a career high 23 K-BB% to go along with his normal ground balls (54.1%) and a career best 4.8% Barrels/BBE with his lowest hard hit rate (37.4%) since his rookie year. Webb’s worst estimator is a 3.01 xERA.

I absolutely love this game for daily fantasy pitching. Webb is easily my favorite overall pitcher in a great environment and solid matchup and maybe even the top value. Workload, strikeouts, ground balls, run prevention. He checks ever box. Cabrera is also my favorite low priced value arm and SP2. Considering the suddenly hot temperatures across a lot of the country, this is very likely going to be the most negative run environment in play by a decent margin.