Saturday 6/21 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Tigers @ Rays

SGL has been held below two full trips through the order in each of his three outings, the last two behind an opener.

Ryan Pepiot has struck out 28 of his last 72 batters faced (17.2 SwStr%).

Orioles @ Yankees

Zach Eflin has bookended 19.2 innings of four run ball, striking out 18 of 72 batters with two walks by allowing 12 runs in 10 innings, striking out three of 49 batters with four walks. His poor starts were inter-divisional on the road (Tampa Bay, Boston) with the others against Detroit, Chicago (AL) and at Seattle. A full 75% of Eflin’s barrels have left the park this year, seven of them in back to back starts in mid-May. That is why his 5.01 ERA matches a 4.81 ERA with all other estimators more than half a run lower.

Clarke Schmidt has struck out 27 of 90 batters entering his last start against the Angels. After recording three strikeouts his first time through the order. He recorded ZERO his second and third time through the order, completing 7.2 innings. I know this because I had the over on his K prop. Allowing just 5.9% Barrels/BBE with a 33.7 HardHit%, Schmidt’s 2.77 xERA is below his 3.16 ERA with more contact neutral estimators, like a 4.08 SIERA and xFIP are nearly a run higher.

Both pitchers have pitch modeling near four and I give Schmidt about half a run edge here, but we have a hot Baltimore offense that has a 50 point higher wRC+ than the Yankees, not counting Friday, while the Orioles also have the best bullpen estimators in baseball over the last 30 days. I have this game quite a bit lower than +144. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Brewers @ Twins

Jose Quintana has struck out 14 of his last 92 batters, but had allowed just four earned runs in the first 15.1 innings of that stretch before enduring his worst start of the season against the Cardinals last time out.

SWR allowed six runs in the start that shipped him out of the league and six in the start that welcomed him back in, but did one-hit 17 Astros in his most recent effort.

Reds @ Cardinals

Wade Miley was listed on MLB.com when I started. It's not TBD. 

Sonny Gray has struck out 10 twice in his last six starts with a total of 18 in the other four. He’s allowed no runs in three of those six starts and 16 in the other three.

Mariners @ Cubs

Not much to say here, except I certainly don't like Emmerson Hancock on a hitter friendly day at Wrigley. 

White Sox @ Blue Jays

As funny as it is that Aaron Civale was shipped to the White Sox after requesting a trade, if he does anything positive, he'll be flipped to a contender next month. 

After three straight quality starts, allowing a total of one run with strikeouts ranging from nine to one, Jose Berrios allowed six runs last time out. That's Berrios in a nutshell. 

Red Sox @ Giants

Brayan Bello is coming off his best start of the season, striking out eight of 26 Yankees over seven innings of three-hit ball without allowing a run.

Landen Roupp is coming off his worst start of the season, walking five of 13 Dodgers without a strikeout.

Rangers @ Pirates

Kumar Rocker struck out six of 20 White Sox without allowing a run last time out on a season high 82 pitches. LHBs have a .400 wOBA and .385 xwOBA against him over the last calendar year. The 5.99 xERA and 4.73 Bot ERA are not pretty, but estimators do range as low as a 3.70 xFIP.

Mitch Keller has gone at least six innings in eight straight starts, seven of them quality starts, but has struck out just 13 of his last 100 batters, despite a 10.2 SwStr% over that span. Keller has a massive split too with LHBs at a .362 wOBA and .375 xwOBA against him over the last 365 days, while RHBs are no higher than .280.

The more intriguing aspects of this game are that neither offense reaches a 90 wRC+ Hm/Rd, v RHP or L7 days, while both have strong defenses and the Rangers have top five bullpen estimators L30 days with the Pirates middle of the pack. Weather should be hitter friendly here, but I still don’t think these two offenses get to 8.5 runs.

Braves @ Marlins

Grant Holmes has struck out 37 of his last 86 batters with a 16.7 SwStr% and 15 of 24 Rockies in his last start with whiffs on not a quarter of his swings against, but a quarter of his pitches.

Eury Perez makes his first post-TJS home start. Pitch modeling has been far better than the results. He failed to strike out any of the 19 Nationals he faced in his second start.

Bullpen stats L30 days....

Royals @ Padres

Six of the nine runs Noah Cameron has allowed through seven starts came in one start against the Yankees. As you might imagine, the .191 BABIP and 89.5 LOB% are immensely unsustainable. He’s only struck out 19.6% of batters, but with a 7.4 BB%. His 5% Barrels/BBE probably won’t last with a league average ground ball rate and 40.3 HardHit%, but for now, estimators range from a 3.06 xERA all the way up to a 4.22 SIERA. Pitch modeling is marginal, though his pitch run values match up well with the Padres, none of whom have a positive pitch run value matchup against him.

Dylan Cease has struck out 20 of 54 Dodgers over his last two starts, shutting them out over seven inngs on three hits in the first one, but getting BABIP’d (.571) for six runs in the second try. He allowed more hard contact in the first start (69.2%) than the second (42.9%). His .343 BABIP is a career high and about 50 points above his career average. His 66.5 LOB% is a career low, more than six points below his career average. Cease doesn’t have a single estimator within a run of his 4.69 ERA. In fact, he doesn’t have one reaching three and a half.

Dylan Cease would be my top pitcher and value on the slate with one caveat that I’ll get to below. I have Cameron a distant fourth, but not offering much value for $9K against a lineup without a lot of strikeouts in it.

Mets @ Phillies

Griffen Canning L5 starts: 21.1 IP – 97 BF – 18 R – 2 HR – 16 BB – 17 K

That includes six shutout innings in Los Angeles (NL), in which he struck out seven of 22 Dodgers with one walk. His 91.3 LOB% before this stretch is now down to 76.7%. With batters from either side of the plate between a .326 and .333 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year, cease has a pair of outlier estimators this year in a 3.29 dERA and 4.79 Bot ERA. All other estimators range between 3.98 (xFIP) and 4.45 (xERA).

Three of Mick Abel’s four major league walks have come in one start. He hasn’t had a single digit walk rate at any stop in the Philadelphia organization since being drafted. LHBs have a .306 wOBA, but .377 xwOBA against him so far, while his 4.75 xERA with a 55.9 HardHit% is almost two-thirds of a run above any other estimator.

With temperatures in the low 80s here, I have these two pitchers, both costing more than $8K on either site, as two of the worst values on the board. However, no single batter really stands out strongly against the pitch run values of the opposing pitcher. I’d still lean towards bats here, though there are certainly a few much more attractive hitting spots to come.

Diamondbacks @ Rockies

Merrill Kelly has a 25.3 K-BB% over his last eight starts, but hasn’t improved his contact profile over that span (8.8% Barrels/BBE, 45.6 HardHit%). He’s allowed no more than one run in half of those starts, but at least three in each of the other four, which means just five quality starts. His pitch modeling has slightly declined during this run as well. It doesn’t make much sense. Over the last calendar year, LHBs have just a .311 wOBA against him, but a .356 xwOBA.

Carson Palmquist has just a 1.6 K-BB%, allowing 14.1% Barrels/BBE. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA and xwOBA against him with LHBs above .400.

It’s going to be somewhere around 90 degrees at Coors. Arizona bats rule this slate. Not even counting the venue or splits, the only batter that doesn’t stand out extremely well against Palmquist’s pitch mix and run values is Jose Herrera. On the other hand, I don’t have Kelly far below Cease either in value or overall. However, the weather and park do dictate that there is validation to exposure to Colorado bats as well where you’re not using Kelly. Only Beck and Freeman even have positive run value matchups against Kelly’s arsenal though.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Astros @ Angels

Brandon Walter is not at all a highly regarded prospect (40 Future Value Fangraphs), but has struck out 19 of 69 batters with a single walk. Half his contact has been hard hit, but it’s also been on the ground at a similar rate, resulting in just two barrels so far. Projections aren’t much above three and a half, but mostly in a small sample bullpen role. He did also post a 23.6 K% (just 3.9 BB%) in 47.2 AAA innings before being called up. A scouting report from last season, when he was with the Red Sox noted that he was once a top 100 prospect in 2022, but suffered a series of injuries, including a shoulder issue costing him all of last year.

Jose Soriano has gone seven innings in each of his last two starts, allowing one run in total, striking out 18 of 52 batters. He had his lowest velocity since April in his last start (97.1 mph). He has struck out just 15 of his previous 123 batters using the same pitch mix. In his 12 strikeout performance against the A’s, it was his sinker generating 16 whiffs. It was more the curveball for six strikeouts against the Yankees, but he’s still the same two pitch guy, rarely with strong command of more than one pitch at a time. He still only has a 9.8 K-BB% on the year, while RHBs have a .320 wOBA and .328 xwOBA against him since last year. A reverse split is not really what a RHP wants against the Astros.

Here's the caveat I spoke about above. I like what Brandon Walter’s done. He’s done it at AAA and at one time was considered a strong prospect before a string of injuries. He’s also exhibited a massive reverse split so far (RHBs .234 wOBA, .252 xwOBA). I not only like taking shots with him in this spot in your DFS lineups, I like the Astros here as a -118 favorite. Look at the offensive, defensive and bullpen gaps all massively favoring Houston in the charts above as well.

Guardians @ Athletics

Luis Ortiz has walked five batters on three different occasions this year, twice over his last five starts. He’s also allowed 10% Barrels/BBE with a nearly 50% hard contact rate to go along with his double digit walk rate this year. LHBs have a .320 wOBA, but .363 xwOBA against Ortiz over the last calendar year and I don’t suspect Sacramento will treat that profile well.

Over his first three starts, Mitch Spence has allowed two runs over 15 innings, striking out 10 of 57 batters with two walks, but hasn’t gone beyond five innings in any of them. Pitch modeling (2.88 Bot ERA, 116 Pitching+) suggests these starts have been legit. He’ll be facing a predominantly LH lineup and they do have a .377 wOBA against Ortiz over the last calendar year, but just a .313 xwOBA.

I’m probably not touching either pitcher in this environment, though Spence is cheap on DK. I like A’s bats just a bit less than Diamondbacks, as weather should make Coors play more hitter friendly on Saturday night. Along with that, I’m splitting a unit (F5 -112, full game even money) on the A’s. I believe they have the slightly better pitcher, along with a clear offensive edge.

Nationals @ Dodgers

Jake Irvin has allowed 16 runs over his last 21 innings. His 12.8% Barrels/BBE allowed this season is nearly 50% higher than his 8.8 K-BB%. LHBs have a .342 wOBA and .364 xwOBA against him over the last 12 months. Irvin’s 3.66 Bot ERA is contested by a 96 Pitching+. He does not have another estimator below four and a half.

Dustin May has walked eight of his last 55 batters with four walks. His estimators range from a 3.97 dERA to a 4.48 xERA with RHBs owning a .330 wOBA and .369 xwOBA against him this year. If you think that’s good news, considering the Nationals will likely run out around seven LHBs, batters from that side have a .315 wOBA and .324 xwOBA too.

The daily fantasy angle here is Dodger bats with Shohei, Smith and Kim popping against Irvin’s arsenal from a pitch run value perspective. The Nationals aren’t as strong against May, but many are still in the positive with Abrams grading best against what May throws. Also, considering the atrocious Washington defense and bullpen, I like the Dodgers exceeding their 5.5 team run total (-108).