Wednesday 6/18 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Red Sox @ Mariners

Garrett Crochet was one two strike, one out, ninth inning Aaron Judge home run away from a shutout last time out. His K-BB is still three points lower than last year, but with a slightly better contact profile, his xERA still barely reaches three. He's allowed more than two earned runs twice this season and has a 4.3 BB% over his last seven. 

All season, I’ve been waiting to bomb Luis Castillo with LHBs (.364 wOBA, .353 xwOBA against him last calendar year) on the road and, somehow, that opportunity still hasn’t arrived. They have a .340 wOBA at home against him too this year.

Pirates @ Tigers

Two straight quality starts for Andrew Heaney against the Cubs and Phillies. His 11.0 K-BB% is a career worst, but he has struck out 12 of his last 43 without a walk. The contact profile remains below average, generating a 4.73 xERA that’s a bit above other estimators, all more than half a run above his 3.33 ERA (.234 BABIP, 81.8 LOB%), except for some disagreement in his pitch modeling, which you can see below.

Tarik Skubal has struck out just 19 of his last 76 batters, but has gone at least seven innings in four straight with a total of one run.

Crochet and Skubal both in great spots, but off the main daily fantasy slate. This is the rare massive favorite that I’m not sure is high enough, but I’m not laying the -275 (F5). It may be a decent parlay piece. 

Phillies @ Marlins

No market on this game. Adam Mazur hasn't been officially confirmed. I won't likely come back to it unless something pops. 

Rockies @ Nationals

Don’t look now, but over his last five starts, German Marquez has a 16.9 K-BB%. That’s supplemented by a 13.3% Barrels/BBE with a 48.9 HardHit%, but somehow, the .356 BABIP has not been hurting his results (3.54 ERA/3.28 FIP/3.75 xFIP/3.71 SIERA over this span). The curveball appears to be working again, as he’s been throwing it 39.4% of the time (29% season), though the grading on the pitch is unchanged from barely above average season pitch modeling.

Not only just one quality start for Mitchell Parker in his last nine, but just once has he allowed fewer than three runs or recorded more than one sixth inning out. The 9.9% Barrels/BBE and 54.2 HardHit% with just a 5.2 K-BB% over this span have been a disaster. All of Parker’s non-FIP estimators are pretty much right there with his 4.84 ERA this season.

The Nationals have lost 10 straight I believe. Let’s make it 11 at +150. I’m not going to go nuts on Marquez. That contact profile still scares me, but Parker has been much worse. The Nationals haven’t been hitting anything, while the Nationals improved on their seven day 114 wRC+ in pounding the Nationals on Tuesday. Better defense and base running for the Rockies. Similar bullpen estimators. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Angels @ Yankees

Some key stats on Jack Koch who we only have interest in attacking on this daily fantasy slate:

5.4 K-BB%, 10% Barrels/BBE, 49.3 HardHit%

Best estimator: 4.47 dERA

Worst pitch matchup rating on the board.

LHBs .364 wOBA, .374 xwOBA against him last calendar year (all batters above .315)

Wells is the only projected Yankee without a positive run value matchup against Koch’s arsenal, though only Judge really pops strongly against the sinkers.

I whiffed on Ryan Yarbrough’s strikeout prop last time out and against one of the most heavily strikeout prone offenses in the league, he only struck out six of 44 Red Sox over his last two starts. However, he’s had at least a 10.4 SwStr% in each of his last five starts (14% average) and has a slightly higher strikeout rate against RHBs this year (22.6%). The majority of the projected LAA lineup has at least a 22.5 K% against LHP with Moore projected above that. Yes, I’m making a case for going after this again at 4.5 (+120).

With estimators ranging from a 3.38 xERA (31 HardHit%) to a 4.39 FIP with eight home runs on just six barrels and missing more bats, I like Yarbrough as a cheap daily fantasy arm too. No projected Angel grades out well against his pitch mix.

Diamondbacks @ Blue Jays

Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed four runs over 11 innings, striking out eight of 46 Mariners and Reds since returning from the IL. With a 16 K-BB% and 34.3 HardHit%, we can certainly blame a 58.7 LOB% and .357 BABIP for his enormous ERA with only his FIP among four among traditional estimators, though pitch modeling does not like him. Especially PitchingBot, which doesn’t grade anything above 45. Every projected Blue Jay except Myles Straw and Jonatan Clase pop strongly by run value against his arsenal. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against ERod over the last calendar year.

Eric Lauer could do anything here. I mostly mean in terms of workload, but also performance. He does have a 15.3 K-BB% in mostly multi-inning outings, but none reaching five innings yet, while the hard hit rate is 44.9%. Marte and Corbin pop against his pitch mix.

I honestly don’t know whether to attack ERod, consider him in an SP2 spot for $7.2K on DraftKings or just avoid the situation altogether. If you’re attacking Lauer, realize the Jays  have had one of the best bullpens in the league this year.

Twins @ Reds

After walking six Rangers last time out and allowing six home runs on nine barrels (23.1%) over his last two starts, it comes out that Bailey Ober has been pitching hurt. His velocity is down and he’s command is a mess and now he takes his 29.3 GB% and double digit barrel rate into the most power friendly park in the league. His 4.40 ERA clones his 4.40 xERA with a 4.32 Bot ERA his only estimator lower.

As Nick Lodolo has moved away from the sinker (below 16% in four of last six) and his velocity has increased (94.2 mph last seven starts, 93.6 season), the strikeouts have increased (25.4% last seven),b ut the great thing is he’s still sustaining a career best sub-5 BB%. This has become a magnificent profile, even with questionable contact management.

Let’s start with a pitcher on the rise being just a -112 favorite against one with a bad hip at home. It only helps that Cincinnati has a 20 point higher wRC+ against RHP than the Twins have against LHP and better base running with similar bullpen numbers. I did a bone head move and failed to list Ober, realizing there’s a non-zero chance he ends up scratched.

The next order of business is that Lodolo is still risky for more than $8K in this park. Lastly, most of the Cincinnati lineup (except CES) are popping well against Ober’s arsenal and run values. I don’t often endorse this Reds lineup, but they could go under-owned if everyone is not up on the Ober hip injury news.

Mets @ Braves

Paul Blackburn has made a strong start in Dodger Stadium. Then piggybacked in a poor outing at Coors before an even worse short relief appearance against the Rays. He has allowed just a 28.6 HardHit% and did show some promise with increased cutter usage after being traded to the Mets. The pitch is at 31.5% with a 59 PB grade and 108 Pitching+ this year, but Blackburn mostly projects not far below four and a half. RHBs have had a bit more success than LHBs against him over the last calendar year, which only encompasses seven starts.

Five straight quality starts with one run or less and three of at least seven innings for Chris Sale. He’s struck out at least eight in seven of his last eight. He’s only middle of the board via pitch matchup ratings because the fastball has a below average run value. Also, aside from marginal pitch modeling, a 3.04 xFIP is his worst estimator this year.

I don’t know what to make of Blackburn yet, but I’m not using him here. Sale is only my fourth favorite pitcher on the board and a marginal value in my eyes. What is it with this LHP infestation today?

Orioles @ Rays

For all the grief the Orioles get for the Trevor Rogers trade, his lone start of the season in Boston was a strong one (6.1 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 0 BB – 5 K). I mean, just a 9.2 SwStr% and 56.3 HardHit%, but he had elite pitch modeling in the start too. I’d assume the 13.5 K-BB% at AAA is the reason he hasn’t been called back up sooner. The contact profile has been fine (35.4 HardHit% at AAA). Rogers projects around four and a half with batters from either side of the plate between a .310 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year and a bit of a reverse split.

What will the extremely volatile Taj Bradley do for his next act? Will it be 10 strikeouts again (three starts back)? He allowed five unearned runs, tying a season high four walks last time out. The double digit walk rate is a problem, but he’s countered it with 50.2% of his contact on the ground, allowing just 5.4% Barrels/BBE. We’d like to see more consistent strikeouts, but Bradley has some of the worst pitch modeling on the board with Ryan O’Hearn a standout against his arsenal.

We want bats here. I’d assume as the weather warms up even more, the ball will start flying out of this park, which his where Bradley’s ground ball rate could really come in handy, but his walks become an albatross.

Last 30 day bullpen stats...

Cardinals @ White Sox

Sonny Gray allowed six runs with just four strikeouts in Milwaukee last time out. He’s had four starts of at least five runs this season and five or fewer strikeouts in half his starts, but still a 21.5 K-BB% and average contact profile. Estimators run a wide range from a 3.04 xFIP to a 4.03 xERA with actual results closer to the latter. Over the last calendar year, batters from either side of the plate are between a .311 and .322 wOBA and xwOBA against Gray.

Sean Burke popped a string of three straight quality starts over which he allowed a total five runs last time out, when Houston blasted him for seven runs in less than four innings with two thirds of their contact reaching a 95 mph EV. When your barrel rate (10.9%) exceeds your K-BB (6.8%) you may find yourself with plenty of estimators above five. In fact, the only one that isn’t is the pitch modeling, which is still below average. Cardinal bats who stand out against his arsenal by run values are everybody except Pages. RHBs have a .344 wOBA and .385 xwOBA against Burke over the last 12 months.

Sonny Gray is a close number two on my board on Wednesday night and one of the better values on my board in a great spot. He’s the lone one of my four horseman who are right-handed. Bats against Burke, weather allowing.

Royals @ Rangers

I watched Kris Bubic uncharacteristically lose his command against the Yankees, as he walked four with a 56.3 HardHit%, striking out just three with his second worst SwStr of the season (10.3%). That’s how good he’s been. In fact, the Yankees are responsible for his two worst starts of the season and eight of his 26 walks. Coming into that start, Bubic had allowed just three runs over his last 34.1 innings, going at least seven innings in four of five starts with a 24 K-BB%. A 3.77 Bot ERA is his worst estimator on the season, as Bubic has held RHBs below a .250 wOBA and xwOBA over the last calendar year.

An 80.9 LOB% probably means Patrick Corbin’s ERA is probably headed towards his estimators above four (4.00 BotERA – 4.55 FIP), but he’s been far from awful. The 10.3 K-BB% is actually almost a point below last year, but the hard hit rate (36.1%) is exactly 10 points lower too. RHBs still have a .347 wOBA and .335 xwOBA against him over the last 365 days, but that’s a far cry from the near .400 number most of last year. The Kansas City offense has been so poor though, that only Garcia and Paasquantino have positive run value matchups against Corbin’s arsenal.

Neither of these offenses exceed a 70 wRC+ against LHP. One of them is going to be an All-Star. The other has the third best bullpen estimators in the league behind him over the last 30 days. Why the hell is this total 8.5 (-122) in a slightly negative run environment? Bubic is my number three overall DFS pitcher and just about as strong a value as Gray. 

Brewers @ Cubs

Jacob Misiorowski put the baseball world on notice, debuting with five no hit innings against the Cardinals, striking out five of 18 batters with a 16 BB% and fastball averaging 99.1 mph. Also on display were the control issues (four walks) that plagued him in the minors (12.3 BB% AAA this year) and contributed to him being a middling top 100 prospect via Fangraphs rather than a top 20 or 30 one. Expect more of the same. The chief concern (along with the walks) is that lack of control will push his pitch count up and keep him to shorter outings.

Five straight quality starts with no more than two runs and seventh inning outs for Jameson Taillon. His 33 year-old breakout is part based on .215 BABIP and 87.9 LOB%, but also his lowest walk rate (4.9%) since his rookie season. While his ground ball rate (34.9%) is the second lowest of his career and 10.2% Barrels/BBE his second highest, a 36.9 HardHit% is one of the better marks in the league and near his career average. Pitch modeling adores Taillon (see below) with the sinker (4.9%) his only below average pitch by either grading system. Other estimators range from a 3.68 xERA to a 4.71 dERA.

The first thing to mention with updated weather is that both Chicago spots look like a mess, pulling my second favorite pitcher off the board in Sonny Gray if it holds up, but not really hurting much here. I believe both pitchers to be adequately priced in the $8 to $9K range. Temperatures around 70 with the a double digit wind blowing in from near the left-field pole is pitcher friendly, but not as dominantly so as most pitcher friendly Wrigley days this year.

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Guardians @ Giants

Logan Allen has done an incredible job of limiting hard contact (30.3%), but that’s about it (6.6 K-BB% is a career low) and somehow, he’s still allowing 9.2% Barrels/BBE with an above average ground ball rate (43.8%). That has led to all of his estimators exceeding four and a half (without any reaching five). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

Justin Verlander makes his return to a major league mound a month to the day after his last major league pitch, when he uncharacteristically walked five A’s on his way to the IL with a pec issue. His 18.2 K% and 9.3 BB% are his worst  marks since 2008, while 11.7% Barrels/BBE is nearly double his career rate. Verlander’s 4.49 Bot ERA is his best estimator with some that exceed five, while he still has a reverse split, but with batters from either side of the plate above a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him over the last calendar year. Verlander’s four rehab starts were split between AA and AAA with no more than four innings in any, but at least 17 batters faced in three of four. He struck out nine of 30 AAA batters and has pitched a bit better after being torched in each of his first two rehab starts.

The park should help barrel issues and Allen would be my second favorite sub-$7K arm on DraftKings (Yarbrough), though that’s not saying much. I wouldn’t otherwise have much interest in pitching here. Heliot Ramos, who has punished LHP (180 wRC+, .303 ISO since last year) is really the only bat I’m interested in here.

Astros @ Athletics

Double digit strikeout efforts in each of his last two starts and Framber Valdez is up to a 24.5 K-BB% with a 64 GB% over his last seven starts, five of which, he’s completed at least seven innings in. This keeps his barrel rate (7% over this span) down, despite a 45.6 HardHit%. The Houston defense (.276 BABIP allowed) takes care of the rest (.277 BABIP allowed by Valdez in these seven starts). A 3.60 xERA and 3.16 Bot ERA are his only estimators above a 3.10 ERA this season, while Jacob Wilson stands out as having a strong pitch run value matchup against him, but is the only projected Athletic with a positive number in that respect.

Luis Severino has had some real issues at home (.356 wOBA) and against LHBs (.332 wOBA) this year. Thankfully, he won’t have to deal with one of those issues this year. His sweeper remains a weapon against RHBs, as he used it to post a quality start in Houston a few starts back, allowing just two runs (one earned). His 11.5 K-BB% against RHBs at home is his best of those four splits, but his 37.5 GB% in that situation is the worst, resulting in a .361 wOBA that’s also a bit worse than LHBs at home.

Probably needless to say after last night’s tease, Framber Valdez is my top pitcher on the board. Yes, even in this park, even with temperatures around 90 with a breeze out to left-center. He pitches deep into games with an elevated strikeout rate and keeps the ball on the ground, which gives the opposition few opportunities to do major damage unless he gets BABIP’d, which hasn’t happened with this defense. It gets a bit closer than last night with the weather update, but even with Sonny Gray closing the gap, his weather issues are even worse in that he may not pitch. Bubic would be my top pivot, but perhaps players will shy away from Valdez in this park. That said, Rooker (176 wRC+, .311 ISO v LHP since last year) and Wilson (161, .167) both still rate strongly here and each exceeds a 165 wRC+ over the last month. And you can certainly pile up RHBs against Severino in this park.

Padres @  Dodgers

Stephen Koleck keeps the ball on the ground (53.9%), which limits his barrels (3.5%), but that’s the only positive in his profile with an 8.2 K-BB% and 48.9 HardHit%. Although he’s had four outings without allowing a run, he’s only struck out more than four in one of them and has only gone six innings twice, while allowing at least four runs in all of his other starts. Koleck has a massive split, which isn’t a surprise, as LHBs are above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him and RHBs below .280.

Emmitt Sheehan missed all of last season with TJS. He has thrown 11.1 rehab innings, 9.1 at AAA, each in three inning stints, striking out 16 or 41 batters with a single walk, but two HBP and HRs each. Projections are optimistically right around four. There are rumors that Justin Wrobleski may piggyback him, which limits what we can do here.

LHBs against Koleck is the most obvious answer here, while you can also use San Diego bats who hit both LH & RHP well.