Tuesday 6/17 MLB Thoughts & Analysis

Phillies @ Marlins

There was some talk about Jesus Luzardo tipping as he gave up 20 runs over 5.2 innings. It had to do with him tapping his glove. It must be true because he struck out 10 in each of the two preceding outings and then struck out 10 last time out after identifying the issue. Also six innings of one run ball without a walk against the Cubs.

Cal Quantrill allowed more than two runs for the first time in five starts last time out, but still struck out six of 22 Pirates with a single walk. That gives him a 17.5 K-BB% over that span with a 3.67 SIERA/3.73 xFIP/3.11 FIP combo over that span.

Luzardo is about a legit run better than his 4.23 ERA this year. Clear near run and a half better than Quantrill overall, but still about a run better over the last month too with all those double digit strikeout games. The Phillies (107 wRC+ v RHP is 10^th) are not suffering without Bryce Harper as the second hottest offense in the league over the last week (150 wRC+). That said, they’ve also been the worst bullpen in baseball over the last month with Miami about three-quarters of a run better. They have a far worse defense too. These things matter, especially if we get into a tight game late. Giving the Marlins +172 at home in this spot is a bit high. Follow Rocky Jade on Action Network for more.

Pirates @ Tigers

I said we’d say something about almost every pitcher today. Bailey Falter is the almost in that statement.

Velocity spiked back up to 95.6 mph for Casey Mize last time out, more than a mph above his season average, after it had been dropping in recent starts. He struck out seven of 25 Orioles.

Rockies @ Nationals

Antonio Senzatela isn’t even almost.

Michael Soroka legit pitched fairly poorly last time out with three walks and two home runs surrendered to the Mets. He still doesn’t have a single non-FIP estimator within a run and a third of his 5.14 ERA.

Angels @ Yankees

Kyle Hendricks is regularly going six innings, but allowing three or four runs in seven straight starts. A 3.76 Bot ERA and 4.17 xERA are his only estimators below four and a half without Pitching+ sharing the optimism. He basically has the worst pitch matchup rating on the board by pure run values. Judge has one of the best pitch run value matchups I’ve seen so far not based on a small sample size against Hendricks’ arsenal. Goldy and Chisholm pop here too. Batters from either side of the plate are within two points of a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against Hendricks over the last calendar year.

Will Warren most recently shut out Kansas City over 5.2 innings. He only struck out four, but most importantly, he did it with one walk after walking eight of his previous 37 batters. The 10.5 BB% and 50% hard hit rate are problems, but with a 28.6 K%, even his xERA is below four. In fact, all estimators are more than a run below his 4.76 ERA (64.9 LOB%).

Before we say anything else about this slate, I want to note that I believe just about every unprotected environment outside California has at least some rain related risk via early google forecasts. Warren may not be a top three or even five arm for me overall on a pretty strong board, but I do think he may be one of the better values on either site for $8.2K or less against an LAA offense with a 26.2 K% vs RHP and leans predominantly right-handed.

Diamondbacks @ Blue Jays

Brandon Pfaadt learned some pitches that usually do a good job of getting LHBs out, but his aren’t good. Now, neither are his pitches to RHBs. Now, batters from either side of the plate have at least a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year. RHBs used to be below .300. He may have the second worst pitch matchup rating on the slate in front of Hendricks. Vlad and Kirk stand out most in individual pitch matchup ratings (run values against the opposing pitcher’s arsenal and frequency of pitches). Springer isn’t bad either.

Chris Bassitt has gone seven innings in back to back starts, but allowed at least four runs in three of his last four. All of his estimators are now within one-fifth of a run of his 3.70 ERA, but LHBs remain above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him over the last calendar year. He also has a negative pitch matchup rating against the Diamondbacks. Not a great matchup for him. Nobody really stands out as battering his arsenal though because he throws so many pitches. Pavin Smith and Josh Naylor have the best run values in this matchup though.

This Pfaadt Bassitt matchup sounds like something out of an Austin Powers movie and it could be a spot where hitters eat. I don’t hate Bassitt’s cost of $8.2K on DraftKings, considering he goes deep into games and Toronto is a slightly negative run environment, but I still don’t love the risk/reward ratio on it either.

Twins @ Reds

Eight of the 13 runs (12 earned) David Festa has allowed through five starts came in one outing in Sacramento two starts back. Completely makes sense. Three of his seven barrels in that start too. His 16.5 K-BB% is fine with an impressive 13.3 SwStr%. He does have a 5.39 xERA, but we have to see what happens when that Sacramento start isn’t such a large part of his sample. The 31.1 GB% might not help him In this park either. RHBs have been a bit better than LHBs against Festa, who is probably the pitcher with the best pitch modeling at the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings by pure run values. Each of the top projected six Reds (via Roster Resource proj. LU vs RHP) pop against his small sample size of pitches except CES.

I still have no clue how Andrew Abbott does what he does, except that he legitimately manages contact well (30.6 HardHit%), despite allowing 8.8% Barrels/BBE. He’s also missing more bats than ever before with an 11.3 SwStr% and poor pitch modeling, but one of the better matchups by pure run value on his arsenal. I will tell you that I don’t believe Abbott has discovered how to sustain a .227 BABIP and 89.6 LOB%. It depends whether you think a large swatch of regression is going to put him through a wall or just nudge his numbers a bit in the right direction.

There is no way I’m paying $10K for Andrew Abbott in this park! But it’s a shame I probably can’t attack him either. RHBs have a .306 wOBA and .312 xwOBA against him over the last calendar year.

Mets @ Braves

I’m still not buying on the 79.2 LOB% and 46.3 HardHit% with just a 13.9 K-BB%, but David Peterson is limiting barrels (5.4%) with a 57.3 GB% and pitching deep into games. He’s one out shy of six straight quality starts and has faced at least 28 batters in three of his last four starts. Maybe there’s some concern that after 106 pitches last time out and a fresh bullpen after an off day, Peterson could have a smaller workload on Tuesday, but the Mets also want to bury the Braves now. He has one of the top pitch matchup ratings unless you include below average pitch modeling. Only Acuna stands out positively against Peterson’s arsenal by pure run values though.

Spencer Schwellenbach has struck out at least nine in three of four starts with a 3.11 ERA within half a run of all estimators this year, spanning from a 2.70 Bot ERA to a 3.53 xERA. He has recorded seventh inning outs in five of his last six, facing at least 27 batters in just as many of them. He has a positive, but lesser pitch run value matchup rating against the Mets, but moves to the top of the board if you include pitch modeling.

The Braves have an 81 wRC+ and 24.7 K% against LHP this year. Based on a normal workload (which means a large one now) Peterson is a borderline top five arm for me on a strong board, but actually a slightly better value on FanDuel where he’s $700 more expensive. Schwellenbach is my number one overall arm (not by a large margin) and a strong value.

Second order of business here is Schwellenbach’s strikeout prop (5.5 +120). Averaging more than three times through the lineup for more than a month now, it shouldn’t matter to him that most of the strikeouts are at the bottom half of the Mets projected lineup, but with five above 23.4% vs RHP over the last calendar year overall. Schwellenbach’s velocity has also been up half a mph over these last six starts as well.

Orioles @ Rays

Although he did strike out eight of 27 Tigers last time out, Dean “Barrels” Kremer has allowed nine runs over his last 12.1 innings with four barrels. At 9.3% Barrels/BBE and just a 17.8 K% on the year, Kremer has estimators below his 4.99 ERA with just a 68.7 LOB%, but only as low as a 4.15 Bot ERA. A run neutral, but power friendly park probably won’t be favorable for Kremer, facing one of the league’s hottest offenses. LHBs have a .345 wOBA and .332 xwOBA against him over the last calendar year with Jake Mangum standing out best against his arsenal, but that may just be because of a small sample against cutters.

Zack Littell has gone at least six innings in 11 of 14 starts this year and has struck out either four or six in five straight starts. Really, it’s a 3.2 BB% and 89.2 LOB% propping him up with just 16.7 K% and 12.5% Barrels/BBE. All estimators are more than a quarter run above his 3.84 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .307 and .335 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year with Westburg and O’Hearn standing out against his arsenal via pitch run values.

The only kind thing I can say about pitching here is that Kremer does have two seven inning, eight K games in his log and he is one of the cheapest pitchers on the board on DraftKings ($6.6K). It’s a hail mary if you want to be different. I can't endorse it though. 

Cardinals @ White Sox

Matthew Liberatore has failed to go more than five innings in three straight starts with 17 runs (14 earned) over those 14 innings. His velocity has been down a half mph over this span. He’s down to a 16.4 K% over his last six starts with 13% Barrels/BBE, but also a 13.0 K-BB% because he’s not walking anyone. That said, he still hangs on for one of the better pitch matchup ratings on the board because it’s the White Sox.

Shane Smith generally doesn’t pitch very deep into games, which is why he most recently recorded just his four quality starts, despite a 2.37 ERA. There’s some fortune in just four of his 11 barrels leaving the yard, but he’s also allowed just 5.9% Barrels/BBE The other part of that may be that the low barrel rate may not be sustainable with a league average ground ball rate an 44.7 HardHit%. Estimators still average around four, going no higher than a 4.13 Bot ERA. Only Brendan Donovan even has a positive pitch run value matchup against him.

Shane Smith’s workload can’t fulfill his price tag. Liberatore is another borderline top five arm for me (along with Peterson), almost entirely due to the matchup at this point (CWS 81 wRC+, 26 K% vs LHP).

Last 30 day bullpen stats...

Royals @ Rangers

Seth Lugo sure shut my mouth about his oncoming regression when he shut the Yankees out over 5.2 innings with three walks and two strikeouts. He’s now reached even five strikeouts in just half of his 12 starts and has just a 5.0 SwStr% in three starts back from the IL. Lugo’s best estimator is a 4.17 xFIP that’s a run above his 3.18 ERA with a .242 BABIP and 84.4 LOB%. Yet, he has the top pitch matchup rating on the board, which falls to the bottom half of the board once you mix in pitch modeling. Only Langford has a positive matchup via run values, but like Bassitt, Lugo throws so many pitches that he can generally just avoid what guys hit well (in this case, really nothing though). However, the Rangers are also the hottest offense in the league over the last week.

Jack Leiter walked three of 41 batters with 12 strikeouts in the two starts leading up to his last outing in Minnesota, where he walked four with just three strikeouts. I don’t know if he’s going to fall into a long term rhythm this year or just remain chaotic from start to start. He’s only gone beyond five innings three times, all in a row to start May. A .232 BABIP is the only thing keeping his ERA below four and a half with a 4.15 Bot ERA his only non-FIP estimator below that mark. Like Lugo, he resides near the top of the pitch matchup ratings because the Royals have been awful, but they don’t strike out.

You can’t do anything with these pitchers, but Leiter has a tendency to blow up in about half his starts and Lugo is due to do so. You probably want bats in one of the few protected environments on the slate, even though Statcast has it as a slightly negative run environment with the roof closed.  

Considering what I've mentioned above, along with the fact that none of the batters in Texas's normal lineup against RHP exceed a 21.6 K% vs RHP over the last calendar year and Lugo hasn't gone more than 21 batters since returning from the IL, I'm playing below 4.5 strikeouts (-102). 

Brewers @ Cubs

Chad Patrick struck out a career high eight of 26 Braves last time out, but was also tagged for multiple home runs for the first time. His approach to pitching is interesting, but risky. It’s generally fastballs, sinkers and cutters mostly up in the zone, though he did throw a season 14.9% sliders against the Braves with a season low 25.5% cutters. It’s nice to see him adjust, even if it backfired and led to five runs. Still averaging 93.9 mph for the season, he’s been above 94 mph in each of his last seven starts, including another season high 95 mph last time out. With a 15 K-BB% and just 6.5% Barrels/BBE (27.2 GB%, 14.2 IFFB%), Patrick has non-FIP estimators ranging from 3.78 xERA to a 4.15 xFIP, aside from a pair of outliers in his 4.93 dERA (I don’t know what they’re thinking) and 5.11 Bot ERA that is far distanced from his 101 Pitching+. The main pitch modeling difference is in the cutter with PB hates (37), but P+ loves (115). Swanson, PCA and Happ stand out a bit against him because of some success against cutters.

Having just two main pitches (fastball, curveball) that he throws a combined 95.9% of the time, Ben Brown is going to be volatile if one of those pitches is off because batters have a 50/50 guess at what’s coming. He is throwing a few more changeups (7.1% L5 starts, 8.9% L2), but you’re getting the fastball or curveball over 90% of the time. He’s generated a magnificent 19.4 K-BB% with a 13.5 SwStr% with this approach, but also 10.9% Barrels/BBE with a 46.3 HardHit%. While a 5.71 ERA is largely the product of a .368 BABIP and 64 LOB%, Brown has two tiers of estimators. One is his pitch modeling (4.05 Bot ERA, 97 Pitching+) and his contact inclusive 4.49 xERA. The others are more contact neutral or agnostic, ranging from a 3.33 SIERA to a 3.58 dERA. As you can see, he’s near the bottom of the pitch matchup ratings, but some of that has to do with my folding knucklecurves in with curveballs, which some batters have big small sample performances against. I’m starting to wonder if I should have just ignored the KC completely. Anyway, Contreras has had the best performance against both of Brown’s pitches, though LHBs have a .363 wOBA and .400 xwOBA against him over the last calendar year.

We finally have some hitter friendly weather at Wrigley (80 degrees, 10 mph out to center), which is very dangerous for these two pitchers. I still think Brown has the upside to be the top value on the board in a decent matchup and I don’t hate Patrick either at a reasonable price. The one day I want Wrigley to be pitcher friendly for these guys, especially if we lose Atlanta pitchers to rain.

Red Sox @ Mariners

For the second time this season, Walker Buehler completed seven innings last time out, as he struck out seven of 28 Rays with a single walk and barrel and 36.8 HardHit%. He’s been all over the place with his pitch usage, trying to figure it out. He has been up to 95 mph in three straight starts now too, more than a mph above his season average, including these three games. That’s the good news, even if he was blown up in a couple of starts in Atlanta and New York before the Rays. Buehler has allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE, but with just a 37.9 HardHit% and competent 13.5 K-BB%. With 11 of his 17 barrels leaving the yard, all of his non-FIP estimators are more than half a run below 5.01 ERA, so it’s probably not as bad as it looks and he gets a massive park upgrade today.

In a great park against a strikeout prone offense, I still don’t hate Woo on FanDuel, where he’s cheaper than DK as almost a lock to go six innings unless he gets absolutely bludgeoned. He’s sustaining a low walk rate even with his struggles, which keeps his pitch count down. That said, I’m siding with the Red Sox, who have the better defense via projected lineup, better bullpen estimators over the last month and far better base running. I'll split between F5 (+168) and full game (+152). 

Below, these last two graphics are my new pitch matchup ratings, explained here. It uses pitch frequencies and run values both for the pitcher and the opposing offense and then attempts to add in pitch modeling, which sometimes differs from actual results. 

Guardians @ Giants

Slade Cecconi has made five starts this season. The first and last were against the Reds, in which he struck out eight in each. His velocity is slightly increased from last year, only below last season’s average 94.4 mph once and barely so (94.2) with a few more sinkers and curves, dropping his fastball rate more than 10 points to 41.1%. Pitch modeling is in agreement on their affinity for the fastball (64 PB, 114 P+), but disagree on most other pitches (3.59 Bot ERA, but 99 Pitching+). We know we like the 25.7 K%, but let’s hope the 13 barrels (18.1%) and 47.2 HardHit% are a small sample thing. Batters from both sides of the plate are between a .340 and .365 wOBA and xwOBA against Cecconi over the last 12 months. Raffy Devers is the standout Giants’ bat against his arsenal.

A poor start at Coors can no longer be written off as just a bad start Coors because so many pitchers have dominated the Rockies in that park over the last couple of seasons, but it is just once start and only two of the four runs were earned, while Ray still struck out five of 21 with a single barrel. Pitch modeling continues to hate him (4.44 Bot ERA, 92 Pitching+), but all three pitches he’s thrown more than 10% of the time have performed well, driving Ray up to the second spot on the pitch matchup leaderboard tonight when you throw out the pitch modeling. Jose Ramirez is the only projected Cleveland bat even sniffing a positive run value matchup against Ray, whose 28.1 K% with just 7.4% Barrels/BBE projects non-pitch modeling ranging from a 2.84 xERA to a 3.59 xFIP.

I’m still not sold on Cecconi, but the park will help his contact issues some and I think we can use him in an SP2 spot. Ray would become my top overall pitcher if Atlanta were rained out, but considering his price on DraftKings ($10.3K), I might consider paying down and looking for more expensive bats.

Astros @ Athletics

The Summer of George is back! Jason Alexander has thrown six innings in relief over four outings this year, walking as many as he’s struck out (five each) with three home runs on five barrels and a 64 HardHit%. Almost a barrel per inning doesn’t play in this league. Over 77.2 career innings, Alexander has a 5.1 K-BB% with all of his other work coming in 2022 for Milwaukee. He’s posted just an 11.6 K-BB% at AAA this year with projections above four and a half.

After striking out just 12.5% of his previous 152 batters, J.P. Sears struck out a season high nine of 20 Angels last time out, throwing a season high 19.5% sinkers and finally pulled back on his sweeper usage to RHBs. Despite the 9.0% Barrels/BBE and 18.7 K%, Sears still posts a 4.08 xERA, partially because he doesn’t walk anybody (4.5%). However, all other estimators, except for a 3.77 Bot ERA, are higher than that. RHBs have a .349 wOBA and .335 xwOBA against Sears over the last calendar year and Astros smoked him for nine runs and three home runs in 3.1 innings not too far back.

Bats, bats and more bats here. 

Padres @ Dodgers

Randy Vasquez threw 4.2 innings of one run ball with just two hits and a walk against the Dodgers last time out, shocking considering his 2.0 K-BB% and 11.9% Barrels/BBE on the season, while LHBs sit above a .375 wOBA and xwOBA against him over the last calendar year. Vasquez does have an a 11.6 K-BB% over his last seven starts, but with 15 barrels (14.3%) with a 50.5% hard hit rate.

The Dodgers have still yet to confirm a pitcher. Matt Sauer, listed in most places, was last seen taking a nine run beating, facing 30 Padres on 111 pitches a week ago to save the bullpen. With a 12 K-BB% and 7.3% Barrels/BBE, estimators ranging from a 3.83 SIERA to a 4.59 Bot ERA are much better than his 5.68 ERA over 25.1 innings with just a 59.1 LOB%.

Dodger bats standing out via pitch run values against Vasquez include on Ohtani and slightly Freeman, but the Dodgers are still the top offense on the board, sitting half a run above any other team total. I don’t think we can do much with the other side. We don’t know if Sauer is starting or if he will be part of a bullpen game even if he is.